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100NL - combo draw on bricked turn

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  1. #1
    Guest

    Default 100NL - combo draw on bricked turn

    Villain seems competent, the only significant history came from about an hour ago when he 2barreled with air on a turn that completed the FD and I called with TPWK or 2nd pair or something.

    Bet or check? Betsize?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP ($278.30)
    CO ($100)
    Hero (Button) ($130.65)
    SB ($99)
    BB ($259.75)
    UTG ($109.45)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 8
    UTG raises $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

    Flop: ($12) 8, 3, K (3 players)
    UTG bets $7, 1 fold, Hero raises $23, UTG calls $16

    Turn: ($58) 6 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero?
  2. #2
    I thought you raised flop to see a free river? i follow up with a check here. UTG calling range is very tight
  3. #3
    Guest
    when you say you thought I raised so I could see a free river, it makes me think you see our hand as weak. Would you get it in on the flop if he 3bet?
  4. #4
    This is what i think he has on turn:

    Hand 0: 69.444% 69.44% 00.00% 825 0.00 { KK+, 88, 33, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AKo }
    Hand 1: 30.556% 30.56% 00.00% 363 0.00 { Td8d }

    On the flop if he 3bets:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 57.251% 57.24% 00.01% 14168 1.50 { KK+, 88, 33, AKs, AKo }
    Hand 1: 42.749% 42.74% 00.01% 10579 1.50 { Td8d }

    given 43% equity you might have to get it in
  5. #5
    Since it was a utg cbet i might just call flop tho
  6. #6
    Seems like a check because he won't be folding any K ever here. He's going for a c/r very often imo and even if he c/c's some you aren't deep enough to 3barrel him of his K.

    Your hand is face up of course when you check, but a bet seems -EV.


    I would also probably call the flop, although I'm not sure it's best.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by minSim
    Seems like a check because he won't be folding any K ever here. He's going for a c/r very often imo and even if he c/c's some you aren't deep enough to 3barrel him of his K.

    Your hand is face up of course when you check, but a bet seems -EV.


    I would also probably call the flop, although I'm not sure it's best.
    a call on the flop adds a little deception and if you get a good turncard you can shove over his 2nd barrel
  8. #8
    raising the flop is fine, as is checking back the turn because of reasons already mentioned. Just take a free card and hope to get there against this guys ak/aa or whatever. Im still always getting it in on the flop if he 4 bets though.
    "This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
  9. #9
    1) What do you think UTG calls your raise with here? BTW, I discount any NFD as he pretty much has to shove over your raise OOP to continue the hand.
    2) Do you think he is folding that range?

    I don't, so check behind and hope to hit a hand and get value from your weak/trappy friend. Note him up.
    Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
  10. #10
    Unless there's a timing tell indicating he probably has a clingy mid-pair this is certainly a check behind.
  11. #11
    Guest
    good reasoning and advice guys. In the moment I bet and he did go for a checkraise (which i had to call) with AKo
  12. #12
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