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100NL: 3bet pot: Semi-bluff OESD TURN?

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 100NL: 3bet pot: Semi-bluff OESD TURN?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (BB) ($113.10)
    UTG ($100.10)
    MP ($113.20)
    Button ($114.90)
    SB ($100)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q
    2 folds, Button raises $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $11, Button calls $8.50

    Flop: ($24.50) 2, 10, K (2 players)
    Hero bets $14, Button calls $14

    Turn: ($52.50) 2 (2 players)
    Hero ???

    villain was 22/19/2, steal 29% and folds to 3bet 74%
    Should we semi-bluff here?
  2. #2
    He has a K here a lot that he's not folding imo. I c/f and hope for a free card.
  3. #3
    I wonder if you can get him to lay down some of his Ks with a turn c/r.. (if he checks back c/f the non gin rivers ofc)
  4. #4
    Have you been 3betting much?
    I don't think he folds a king, at worst he has KJ.

    IF his range is like T9s/TJs/QTs/KQ/KJ/QQ/JJ;
    and IF he folds all hands but TP;
    he'll fold 42% of his range.

    With the equity we have against his TP hands, can't we half pot the turn?
  5. #5
    I barrel here - He rarely has better than KQ here, and in his mind you have AK+ a lot. I think the bulk of hands that make up the majority of his range are JJ//KJs/KQs, maaaybe JQs if he thinks you're loose.

    I would say a C/R AI would be better if you were deeper as that'd give you more FE. However if you checked and he value bet and you shoved I don't think he'd be able to fold a K for ~$60 more
  6. #6
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadstool
    I barrel here - He rarely has better than KQ here, and in his mind you have AK+ a lot. I think the bulk of hands that make up the majority of his range are JJ//KJs/KQs, maaaybe JQs if he thinks you're loose.

    I would say a C/R AI would be better if you were deeper as that'd give you more FE. However if you checked and he value bet and you shoved I don't think he'd be able to fold a K for ~$60 more
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  7. #7
    In my games almost no one folds a K here or to a river 3rd barrel, but maybe your games are different.
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    your sizing is terrible, every street

    also just fold pre
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    your sizing is terrible, every street

    also just fold pre
    ??flop sizing is perfect
    pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea
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  10. #10
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    i dont expect him to fold a king. i dont expect him to often have one either. you guys are giving his flop calling range WAY too much credit. if i didnt think i could profitably double or triple barrel this flop, i wouldnt bet the flop at all. its a pretty decent option because youll get credit for an all right hand when you check on this texture after 3betting pre.

    I should have added earlier that preflop is terrrrrrible.
    My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
    you guys are giving his flop calling range WAY too much credit.
    Yeah, probably.

    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
    I should have added earlier that preflop is terrrrrrible.
    agree
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
    if i didnt think i could profitably double or triple barrel this flop, i wouldnt bet the flop at all.
    Yah I definitely agree with this. There are tons of hands I think call this flop, that aren't feeling too great about a second barrel. AJ, AQ, JQ, 9Ts, TJs, JJ, QQ and even KJs aren't loving a double.
  13. #13
    Renton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    your sizing is terrible, every street

    also just fold pre
    ??flop sizing is perfect
    pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea
    how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street?
  14. #14
    88:50 is 3:2, CRAZY
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    your sizing is terrible, every street

    also just fold pre
    ??flop sizing is perfect
    pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea
    how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street?
    wtv, just adjust your betsizes a little
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  16. #16
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Thanks for the comments guys!
    But why 3betting with QJo a guy that folds to 75% is bad?
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmy44
    Thanks for the comments guys!
    But why 3betting with QJo a guy that folds to 75% is bad?
    I take a guess;
    the times you hit a pair and villain continues, you'll almost always be behind. So you're probably gonna loose money postflop the times you hit.
  18. #18
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Thanks!
    So a hand like 87o or 98o would be better? or better do it with 97s?
  19. #19
    In this situation, what you are doing by 3 betting QJ is - building a large pot, OOP, with a hand that is extremely likely to be dominated (against somebody with a 75% fold to 3bet, he is never going to call the preflop 3 bet with a hand that you dominate) very -EV.

    Yeah 3 betting 87o or similar is better, as you aren't going to find yourself in as many tricky spots postflop.
  20. #20
    wait a sec, ofc we can 3bet QJo here!! if he folds 75% of the time we are winning money through FOLD EQUITY preflop. hell its even possible that if we c/f every flop we profit overall (math was ofc not done to prove lol).

    so what if we are dominated by his calling range. we will ALWAYS be fucked vs his calling range anyway.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  21. #21
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    Yeah, kind of agree with Da Goat. Seems like raising pre still nets us EV as opposed to neutral EV of folding preflop. BUT, in this sense, it does mean we have to c/f postflop. I definitely understand the potential risk of 3betting this preflop but it seems like the immediate reward is too good to warrant a fold preflop.
  22. #22
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    if we're raising just for fold equity we better take a hand like 72o which wont get us into difficult spots postflop most of the time. plus we dont take the value out of our hand. we might be ahead of his raising range, but definitely behind his 3bet calling range
  23. #23
    well since we have QJ then it discounts cards against his strong range.

    preflop for me tho is a mix of calling/3betting/folding depending on player. if he folds 75% of time to a 3bet and opening a wide btn range im probably never folding this hand.

    big papi, your saying you prefer calls in this spot then. id like to here some postflop reads on opp too.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Da GOAT
    wait a sec, ofc we can 3bet QJo here!! if he folds 75% of the time we are winning money through FOLD EQUITY preflop. hell its even possible that if we c/f every flop we profit overall (math was ofc not done to prove lol).

    so what if we are dominated by his calling range. we will ALWAYS be fucked vs his calling range anyway.
    This is right if you're playing perfect/good postflop.
    But if you're playing slightly -EV postflop because of the domination, you preflop +EV could be vanished pretty fast.

    If you have the change of 3betting all sorts of non dominated crap, why take a 'risky' hand like this one. Just wait for one of the other 30%+ hands you can 3bet here, it's not a big deal to let this change go. Or just call, you have a nice hand against his opening range.
  25. #25
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    if he's opening such a big range from the btn our QJ increases strength against his range, but when he calls our 3bet we're going to be in bad shape. 72o for example is already in bad shape anyway, so we dont lose any value.

    definitely not folding this preflop either here. at 100NL most villains play pretty straight forward postflop so it should not be too hard to figure out. as we see here, he's not folding to a 2nd barrel imo. the board structure hasnt changed much and they dont peel enough for it to be profitable i think on these boards
  26. #26
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    Whoa hey dont get all crazy with your 3betting dudes. it's true that in a vacuum, 3betting this QJo in this spot may be +EV. It may also be +EV with almost any two cards! If you have a solid reg type image, shit, you can probably just 3bet shove here with any two cards and it will be +EV! So why not? The idea is that people will adjust to your 3betting and start to call or 4bet bluff with a wider range the more you are 3betting. Your opponent is already probably adjusted somewhat to this spot since you are 3betting from the blinds vs. a button raise, and they perceive you to have a wider range than say, a spot where you 3bet their UTG raise from the CO. Plus they have a positional advantage, which is absolutely critical in 3bet pots. I bet that 75% stat isnt filtered to a specific position-versus-position situation, and even if it is, you don't have a meaningful sample size or an idea of what he is thinking gameflow-wise. You need to pick and choose the best range to 3bet with here, and if you really do feel he's folding too much currently, for reasons other than reading numbers off your stupid HUD, then you can exploit that by making your range slightly larger. QJo should not be in that range since you can't play it for value out of position effectively in a 3bet pot and you can probably just call profitably versus most opponents.
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  27. #27
    Galapogos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
    Whoa hey dont get all crazy with your 3betting dudes. it's true that in a vacuum, 3betting this QJo in this spot may be +EV. It may also be +EV with almost any two cards! If you have a solid reg type image, shit, you can probably just 3bet shove here with any two cards and it will be +EV! So why not? The idea is that people will adjust to your 3betting and start to call or 4bet bluff with a wider range the more you are 3betting. Your opponent is already probably adjusted somewhat to this spot since you are 3betting from the blinds vs. a button raise, and they perceive you to have a wider range than say, a spot where you 3bet their UTG raise from the CO. Plus they have a positional advantage, which is absolutely critical in 3bet pots. I bet that 75% stat isnt filtered to a specific position-versus-position situation, and even if it is, you don't have a meaningful sample size or an idea of what he is thinking gameflow-wise. You need to pick and choose the best range to 3bet with here, and if you really do feel he's folding too much currently, for reasons other than reading numbers off your stupid HUD, then you can exploit that by making your range slightly larger. QJo should not be in that range since you can't play it for value out of position effectively in a 3bet pot and you can probably just call profitably versus most opponents.
    Listen to this guy you 3-betting monkeys


    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123
    I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
  28. #28
    woa excellent post
  29. #29
    kmind's Avatar
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    I side with nuts now
  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmind
    I side with nuts now
    Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise.
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  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred
    Quote Originally Posted by kmind
    I side with nuts now
    Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise.
    Wouldn't the more +EV move than calling be to start folding marginal hands OOP?
  32. #32
    Great post nuts
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by STHollywood
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred
    Quote Originally Posted by kmind
    I side with nuts now
    Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise.
    Wouldn't the more +EV move than calling be to start folding marginal hands OOP?
    It depends, pay attention to your opponents, get comfortable postflop and calling can be okay.


    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123
    I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    your sizing is terrible, every street

    also just fold pre
    ??flop sizing is perfect
    pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea
    how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street?
    wtv, just adjust your betsizes a little
    yeah only a little adjustment is required but its still really important. if the spr were 1:1 or 2.5:1 on this street decisions would be much simpler and more profitable
  35. #35
    Let me just contribute somethings that may have not been contributed yet.

    I don't like two barrelling here in general too much because I think opps calling range on the flop is balanced between stuff he's not going to fold and stuff he is going to fold. I agree with Renton about the SPR, I also like betting less on the flop because this is the best draw we can have on this flop and we essentially have to two barrel it. Betting less allows a hand like 55/44 or some other weak hand (maybe A9/A8 as well) he may fold to a big bet to call, therefore making a turn barrel more profitable.
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  36. #36
    I think I would check. in a 3bet pot I would either Bet-Bet-Check , Bet-Check/Fold-Bet Scare Cards(FD,4straight) or Bet-Check/Call-Shove.
    that last one looks so silly but it dependent on board pairing on turn. Villians river calling range is so tight, like KK or TT on this board I would expect him to fold everything else.

    hahahaha wow I didn't even see the date,
    Last edited by acg123; 09-05-2013 at 10:07 PM. Reason: why not
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