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1/2 - two pair 3 barreled and raised on river

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  1. #1

    Default 1/2 - 3 barrel 2pair and get shoved over on river

    Villain is a Russian reg but doesn't have Russian stats, he's running 18/14/3.3 over a bunch of hands, only 3bets 4.5%. I know I've played with him a fair amount but I have no notes, so I guess we haven't tangled. He folds to a lot of cbets (71%) and doesn't see a lot of showdowns (22%). Is my river bet too thin? Is he ever bluffing river?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    Hero (MP) ($255.75)
    CO ($229.25)
    Button ($191.70)
    SB ($272.55)
    BB ($262.45)
    UTG ($182.15)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 5
    1 fold, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, 3 folds

    Flop: ($15) 5, K, A (2 players)
    Hero bets $10, CO calls $10

    Turn: ($35) 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets $24, CO calls $24

    River: ($83) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $50, CO raises to $189.25 (All-In), Hero...
  2. #2
    texa8's Avatar
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    this is pretty sick river spot...

    you'd say he 3bets AA, KK preflop and AK most of the time...

    Assuming that his range here is probably polarised b/w AK,55 and air/made hands turned into bluffs... which im not sure he does much
  3. #3
    Pretty gross but this is very rarely a bluff especially vs this nitty a guy who folds to that many c-bets.


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  4. #4
    You have blockers to anything that beats you. I think for that reason I call I guess. Your river betsize doesn't really look polarized at all so if he's thinking about that then its probably he could turn something into a bluff.
  5. #5
    AK is likely imo, or even KK/AA.
    Maybe QThh.

    Pretty sick for villain to turn KQ/KJs into a bluff, I don't really buy that because I assume he knows he isn't repping much and you're perceived to be strong, and tight players/nits don't do that very often ime.
  6. #6
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    Ouch. I'm a nit so I fold. Don't hate calling though.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by meeloche View Post
    You have blockers to anything that beats you. I think for that reason I call I guess. Your river betsize doesn't really look polarized at all so if he's thinking about that then its probably he could turn something into a bluff.
    +1.

    My first thought was that ur bet size might have induced something.
  8. #8
    Ravageur's Avatar
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    river is definitely not too thin, but fak is this ever a tough spot. Seems like you have to be beat despite the blockers because this guy has some nitty stats and this is a pretty elaborate float/bluff for nl 200. With a clear head this is a fold.
    Family Cruise IMO
  9. #9
    I fold this 75% call 25%
  10. #10
    I think its a pretty easy fold.
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  11. #11
    Renton's Avatar
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    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    I'd call.
  12. #12
    This makes no sense. You gotta figure he should be worried about hands like AK/KKK/AAA to the point where he might not shove A2 on the river, but he also might not shove A8 on the river. It's really unlikely he gets to river with 88.

    I guess I fold only because he has a low 3bet and is much more likely than most other ppl to show up with AK/KK/AA himself here. Versus anyone else I would call.

    I'd also bet a bit bigger on river.
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