1/2 - thin value with rivered top pair?

Villain seems like an average reg, running 23/18/2.9, raises utg 15%, cbets 73%, only 2 barrels 34%. He probably think I'm a bit spewy, he's seen me shove a gutshot over his cbet in a 3bet pot (he had AA) and shove 99 pre from the sb vs. his btn 4bet.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($233.15)
UTG ($341)
MP ($532.05)
CO ($211.85)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($138)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
UTG bets $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 6, 9, J (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($41) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30

River: ($101) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero... ($151 behind)

seems like an obvious vbet of like 80 or something. No idea why you call the flop though.

I disagree. I like flop call but I don't think you should bet river on this board.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

seems like an obvious vbet of like 80 or something. No idea why you call the flop though.

yah definitely. Easiest bet ever.

Originally Posted by griffey24

yah definitely. Easiest bet ever.

I bet 70

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I disagree. I like flop call but I don't think you should bet river on this board.

If we shouldn't bet this river we either should not be calling the flop or be bluffing a shit ton on the river.

Easy river bet.

I'd also probably often check back the turn. I can't imagine that many hands I'd be betting here vs an utg range, and our A high is good a lot. He might also bluff a river A.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

If we shouldn't bet this river we either should not be calling the flop or be bluffing a shit ton on the river.

Easy river bet.

Who says zook is bluffing a shit ton on the river? If our image is so bad that we get called enough by worse, then we should be checking the turn. This is 200nl and I wouldn't worry too much about balancing and bluff protection. I also think that our image needs to be really terrible for this bet to show profit in a vacuum. I mean easy bet for the griffo obviously but as he said himself he probably wouldn't bet the turn.

If this river bet got called by KJs/QJs, then the turn bet was a mistake. Betting contradicts with our chosen strategy, we bet the turn to force villain to make a big laydown by the river, but now we hit a pair and we suddenly decide that this is a good spot for thin value? Cmon. Or was the plan to give up blank river and check behind? That's really sheepish and I hate it.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Who says zook is bluffing a shit ton on the river? If our image is so bad that we get called enough by worse, then we should be checking the turn. This is 200nl and I wouldn't worry too much about balancing and bluff protection. I also think that our image needs to be really terrible for this bet to show profit in a vacuum. I mean easy bet for the griffo obviously but as he said himself he probably wouldn't bet the turn.

If this river bet got called by KJs/QJs, then the turn bet was a mistake. Betting contradicts with our chosen strategy, we bet the turn to force villain to make a big laydown by the river, but now we hit a pair and we suddenly decide that this is a good spot for thin value? Cmon. Or was the plan to give up blank river and check behind? That's really sheepish and I hate it.

Nothing you wrote really contradicts what I wrote. If we feel opp is not going to check the turn with a range we can bluff against profitably I wouldn't call the flop.

You do have a point about the turn though. My defense against that is we have only a vague notion whether opp is going to call or fold some hand like TT/KJs/QJs/JTs/QQ/KK on this river. The only hand that is really beating us is AJ. Thats one hand vs 6 others (although i admit KK/QQ clearly has less weight in this situation). We are also in a situation where we are playing a ton of nut made hands the exact same way up to the river. We have a range with a lot of nut hands vs an opponents range that doesn't. To me, that is a fantastic bluffing opportunity.

So lets say we think okay, I think there's a 50% chance he will call with a weaker hand, and 50% of the time he will fold. In this situation, both value betting AQ here when we hit an Ace and bluffing with something totally random like 77-88 would be good. There is also the idea of betting $80 when we hit out Ace but shoving all in when we don't. Its unbalanced it doesn't matter as long as opp doesn't know what we are doing.

ISF the main difference between our views is probably that I think villains least discounted line with nutted hands is c/c turn.

I was also thinking a lot about the river sizing problem. I pretty much thought that it doesn't make sense to bet smaller for value only although I'm generally in favor of exploitative strategies.

i have no idea what p4s is talking about this time, this is a clear value bet. i usually fold flop but certainly dont hate your call + turn bet.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

i have no idea what p4s is talking about this time, this is a clear value bet. i usually fold flop but certainly dont hate your call + turn bet.

What I'm saying is that the regs at these stakes don't bet flop and c/c down 2bet pots with weak holdings, especially after opening UTG. I don't do that, do you?

so our perceived range and the opponents range dont matter? just check because you dont think people call with a pair? i dont understand

1. Why do we bet turn if we think he will call river with one pair? Contradicting strategy.
2. Regs at these stakes are slowplaying here a ton.
3. Our perceived range is very strong, even 78s hit.
4. Villain can only beat a bluff.
5. Zook isn't a maniac.

So what if his range looks weak, he can't play KJ like this profitably and he very likely doesn't. Neither would you or me. Against a fish or weak player, of course easy bet, not against a reg with almost 3AF.

1. to fold out his hands that arent 9x+
2. this is one of the spots i think it is LEAST likely someone with the nuts and initiative is going to check/call
3. our perceived range for betting the turn is only medium strong- we would bet T8/QT/KT/KQ, a few other bluffs, and possibly 77/88 along with our good hands. and the river is a brick for both ranges.
4-5. not that relevant

Good points. Perhaps we aren't beat all that often, but I still can't see myself calling this river bet with worse no matter how I look at it. Everyone who thinks this is the "easiest bet ever" should carify why they think a river call with worse is going to show profit against a player like zook. The bluff protection argument simply doesn't apply here.