1/2: thin river spot

Villain is a tag reg, well known poker coach/instructor. He's on at least five of my tables but we have no significant history.

I've got mixed emotions about this play myself so comments plz...


MP: $232.15
CO: $208.65
Hero (BTN): $204.00
SB: $237.35
BB: $261.00
UTG: $498.55
SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has 8 8
fold, MP raises to $7.00, fold, Hero calls $7.00, fold, BB calls $5.00

Flop: ($22.00, 3 players) 3 3 6
BB checks, MP bets $15.00, Hero calls $15.00, fold

Turn: ($52.00, 2 players) Q
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($52.00, 2 players) T
MP bets $58.00, Hero raises to $182.00 and is all-in

Any idea how often he overbets?

I think if he folds you have the best hand.

Your confusing me with calling this a thin river spot but I think this is pretty good as a bluff.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Your confusing me with calling this a thin river spot but I think this is pretty good as a bluff.

I just meant that I'm not repping a very wide range

love it for so many reasons

What hands is he overbetting, that we don't already beat AND that aren't calling our river shove exactly?

Originally Posted by griffey24

What hands is he overbetting, that we don't already beat AND that aren't calling our river shove exactly?

if villain thinks hero is an aggro stationy scandi (very likely) i can see him doing this as light as JJ

this seems terrible. i dont see why you would have a good hand here. i mean, he might fold i guess if only for the reason this looks so insane that you should have some silly slowplayed boat here, but id click call, thats for sure

Originally Posted by sauce123

this seems terrible. i dont see why you would have a good hand here. i mean, he might fold i guess if only for the reason this looks so insane that you should have some silly slowplayed boat here, but id click call, thats for sure

The thing is, I also used to call in these spots (as villain) vs other regs, but I had to change my ways because I realized that they simply always have it.

Pretty unlikely that I have air here so is he really going to think that I'm turning a made hand into a bluff in this spot?

uhm, one combo of 33, 3 combos of 66, 3 combos of QQ (not heavily weighted), 3 combos of TT (not heavily weighted)... so uh ... generously 6 combos of hands which can shove for value. you can also hold .. like 12 combos AJ, 12 combos AT, 30 combos mid PPs, occasional bway or 54s. so uhm, 45+ combos of potential bluffs. he's also going to be getting 124:292, 2.3 to 1 or so on a call.

so the question in his mind is will you bluff with say 1/16 of your air combos?

and all this is if we grant he holds a bluffcatcher like AA/KK/AQ, he can definitely hold all boats himself sometime.

i mean, in his shoes i might fold AA just thinking "wow, this guy cant be this crazy!?!", but im not even considering folding 3x or better

Originally Posted by sauce123

in his shoes i might fold AA just thinking "wow, this guy cant be this crazy!?!"

That's precisely what I was trying to accomplish. I won't deny that it's a little fancy, but this was against one of the very best regs who I will be playing against every day. I thought seeing what he does here will easily be worth a few dollars potentially lost in EV. Even if he calls me I'm certain that he won't put me on the correct level of thought. Now, can you dig it?

What is your 3bet? If it's high, and he perceives you as 3betting TT+ then you're for sure getting snapped off.

The only hand I can realistically see playing this way that we beat, and that might fold is JJ.

sauce that thinking seems way too deep for these games; the correct play vs the large majority of regs is often the irrationally tight one since most regs are irrationally tight. if you always call when "he can only have x combos and only has to be bluffing 1/1000000 times for this to be correct" then you re lighting money on fire.

...except vs p4s!

I think he's check calling the vast majority of the time on the when he doesn't bet the overcard, so If i were you I would always bet turn for value with any hand that this shove is representing. Therefore if I were him i would call you.

i would likely bet half pot or so on the turn w/ my entire range and i dont think its close vs anybody. river just seems like he is FPSing w a Tx hand and he has no reason to fold to a jam without a specific read that you would slowplay a flopped monster.

i mean, if people actually fold in this spot and spots like these, which everyone who actually plays these stakes seems to be saying is the case, then you guys should just start jamming everything whcih cant comfortable call bets all the time

Originally Posted by sauce123

i mean, if people actually fold in this spot and spots like these, which everyone who actually plays these stakes seems to be saying is the case, then you guys should just start jamming everything whcih cant comfortable call bets all the time

bingo. even if we get stationed here and there, the big benefit i see is that most people will be too afraid to develop a reasonable bet-call range vs us on the river and will instead tell themselves "well i ll just polarize my river betting range" when in fact they'll simply be giving up without extremely strong hands so once they adjust we can just fold everything.