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1/2 - couple of top twos I want to fold

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  1. #1

    Default 1/2 - couple of top twos I want to fold

    1. Villain's running 30/12/1.4 over about 50 hands. Only note is that he didn't 3bet QQ ip, flatted a cbet on a 9xx two-tone flop and then raised a Q turn. (Note we're 210bb deep.)

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    UTG ($445)
    MP ($211.15)
    Button ($568.90)
    Hero (SB) ($427.90)
    BB ($179)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
    1 fold, MP bets $6, Button calls $6, Hero raises to $26, 1 fold, MP calls $20, Button calls $20

    Flop: ($81.50) A, 3, K (3 players)
    Hero bets $55, 1 fold, Button raises to $234, Hero...


    2. Villain's running 27/9/3.6 over about 200 hands. Small sample for these stats but... 3bets 1.6%, folds to cbets 86%, c/r's flops 0%, c/r's turns 20%. No notes or history.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    UTG ($356.95)
    MP ($200)
    Hero (CO) ($235.95)
    Button ($202.40)
    SB ($463.30)
    BB ($187.65)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J, K
    2 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

    Flop: ($13) 10, J, 4 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

    Turn: ($33) K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB raises to $108, Hero...
  2. #2
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Yeah I don't mind two folds here.
  3. #3
    Mr. Diamond's Avatar
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    yeah these raise sizings are so big

    - I'm folding both too
  4. #4
    1. Bleh. This guy's probably calling a bunch of diamond suited conectors here pre and then to the squeeze once pfr comes along when we're this deep. Given he didn't raise raise QQ previously on a low flop, I'm inclined to take out pretty much all combos of naked AQ AJ etc.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 29.766% 28.88% 00.88% 4003 122.50 { AcKc }
    Hand 1: 70.234% 69.35% 00.88% 9612 122.50 { KK+, 33, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AcQd, AhQd, AsQd, AcJd, AhJd, AsJd }

    I'd imagine this is fairly accurate.

    2. Really easy fold. He'll have the same hand sometimes and possibly JT but the rest of his range is killing you and JT is a little optimistic.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 27.273% 21.87% 05.41% 356 88.00 { KhJs }
    Hand 1: 72.727% 67.32% 05.41% 1096 88.00 { JJ-TT, 44, AQs, KJs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo, JTo }

    These ranges should pretty much cement what others have said above, it's nice to see the proof imo.
  5. #5
    Ravageur's Avatar
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    yep, these are folds. I'd take out KK+ of villain's range in hand 1, but he still always has a flush or 33 here.
    Family Cruise IMO
  6. #6
    Mr. Diamond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ravageur View Post
    I'd take out KK+ of villain's range in hand 1
    +1

    Villain has no history and with these stacks + pot is 3-way, I don't think he will slowplay
  7. #7
    1- easy fold, you're just so crushed vs this postflop nit
    2- somewhat close, he can have KT, possibly even KQ/JT since he seems to like to raise turns, also probable is some combo draw. I shove but its close.
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    2. Really easy fold. He'll have the same hand sometimes and possibly JT but the rest of his range is killing you and JT is a little optimistic.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 27.273% 21.87% 05.41% 356 88.00 { KhJs }
    Hand 1: 72.727% 67.32% 05.41% 1096 88.00 { JJ-TT, 44, AQs, KJs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo, JTo }

    These ranges should pretty much cement what others have said above, it's nice to see the proof imo.
    You forgot KTs/KTo. Just adding those two bumps the equity from 27.273 to 36.892.
  9. #9
    Oops yeah, I was a bit tired this morning. KT is obv in his range.
  10. #10
    ship both, sample size too small to fold
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum

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