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1/2 - AKo on monotone flop, no draw

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  1. #1

    Default 1/2 - AKo on monotone flop, no draw

    Villain is a Norwegian red pro, big loser over a large sample size in my db, running 25/21/2.8, raises 21% utg, barrels 45/55/53% on each street. My notes say that he thinks I'm a huge station. But I've been playing with him on several tables for awhile and haven't gotten out of line.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    Hero (MP) ($306.90)
    CO ($173)
    Button ($207)
    SB ($102.90)
    BB ($207.30)
    UTG ($268.05)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K
    UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7, CO calls $7, 3 folds

    Flop: ($24) 10, 6, A (3 players)
    UTG bets $16, Hero calls $16, 1 fold

    Turn: ($56) 8 (2 players)
    UTG bets $40, Hero calls $40

    River: ($136) 7 (2 players)
    UTG bets $102, Hero...
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    the fact that he thinks you're a massive station and your hand is slightly underrepped to what he thinks your range might be makes me want to call.
  3. #3
    i was gonna say i don't like the flat pre, but given the dynamic it's probably a good play.

    your commitment decision is on the turn, and anyways i'd be comfortable calling down versus an aggro losing playing in a spot like this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
  4. #4
    Renton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bbickes View Post
    the fact that he thinks you're a massive station and your hand is slightly underrepped to what he thinks your range might be makes me want to call.
    Actually the fact that he thinks zook's a massive station should make you want to fold; he needs to be bluffing here some for it to be a call.
  5. #5
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I'd fold the turn.
  6. #6
    bikes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    Actually the fact that he thinks zook's a massive station should make you want to fold; he needs to be bluffing here some for it to be a call.
    You don't think he'd be vbing thinner due to zook's massive stationyness?
  7. #7
    1. with AJo

    Board: Ah Th 6h 8c 7d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 43.243% 43.24% 00.00% 16 0.00 { AsKc }
    Hand 1: 56.757% 56.76% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AA, TT, 88, 66, AQs-A9s, A6s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 9h8h, 9h7h, AQo-AJo }


    ---


    2. without AJo

    Board: Ah Th 6h 8c 7d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 32.258% 32.26% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AsKc }
    Hand 1: 67.742% 67.74% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AA, TT, 88, 66, AQs-A9s, A6s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 9h8h, 9h7h, AQo }


    ---


    you only need 30% equity to call
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
  8. #8
    hmm almost certain id call a decent amount of the time if i got to the river this way. since i think aj and aq still vb.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  9. #9
    If it wasn't four to a straight, I can see AQ value betting here a lot more.

    But the fact that its four to a straight, and monotone and that there are tons of two pairs that he doesn't expect hero to fold, I don't think we can expect worse to be value betting here that often at all.

    I'd dump this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
    apologies i 4got theres a 4 card draw (i noticed it yday )
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  11. #11
    seems like a close turn decision and pretty easy riv fold
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  12. #12
    bikes's Avatar
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    oh shit i did not see the 4 straight either. yah im folding the river.
  13. #13
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    I think turn is really close

    - if we call, we will be in bad situation on 7, 9, J, Q + every heart (I think he will barrel all these cards)
    - we can't improve to relatively good hand (+ K can sometimes makes a straight for villain)
  14. #14
    just fold this river
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill View Post
    i was gonna say i don't like the flat pre
    The SPR really sucks for your hand here when you flat. SPR = 10 with one caller and 17 with none(which isn't horrible). If you 3bet to 11.5x then your SPR is a very favorable 5.
    I know you're assumption is he's folding a lot of worse hands, but 21% UTG range warrants a wider 3bet range by you.
    Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Silly String View Post
    The SPR really sucks for your hand here when you flat. SPR = 10 with one caller and 17 with none(which isn't horrible). If you 3bet to 11.5x then your SPR is a very favorable 5.
    I know you're assumption is he's folding a lot of worse hands, but 21% UTG range warrants a wider 3bet range by you.
    I didn't include that he folds to 3bets 70%, so I really hate 3betting this hand in this position regardless of SPR.
  17. #17
    Turns close to a fold, river definitely is.
    "This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.

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