1/2 - 3bet pot, turn decision

Villain is a winning but stationy reg, so I think there's thin value pre. He folds to 3bets 55%, 4bets 2.2%. He folds to cbets 44% (all pots, not just 3bet) and goes to showdown 29%.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($402)
Hero (SB) ($1013.35)
BB ($202)
UTG ($200)
MP ($217.75)
CO ($360.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 9
1 fold, MP bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $22, 1 fold, MP calls $16

Flop: ($46) 3, Q, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, MP calls $30

Turn: ($106) A (2 players)
Hero... ($166 behind)

With your reads its a bet for sure, like 55ish.

I'm curious if you use pt3? 2.2% 4 bet seems absurdly low.

2.2% 4bet or 4bet range?

I'd b/c $40

Originally Posted by L_Clan_Sup3rMaN

2.2% 4bet or 4bet range?

sorry range, mah bad

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'd b/c $40

what worse hands are shoving here?

surely you're not gonna get shoved on much unless he's a spazz?

Should we be concerned about checking balance wise just because we're barrelling this card really often? what other hands do you check with the dynamic you have? checking sure looks confusing from his pov, maybe checking induces some bluffs from floaty/drawy types of hands? while betting might fold out some PPs and so on?

just some garbled random thoughts there

Originally Posted by zook

what worse hands are shoving here?

well we're certainly not folding to a shove, and we gotta bet since he's such a station...

a lot of people just shove here to avoid facing a river decision so we definitely have odds to call vs his shoving range

Originally Posted by Alexos

we definitely have odds to call vs his shoving range

huh. I struggle to find worse hands that spaz and shove over a 2nd barrel here. Maaaybe KdQd/QdJd/JdTd if they don't raise the flop. And we're worse than a 5:1 dog to AQ or 88.

We have to account for the fact that I said b/c $40, which villain will perceive as a very small bet.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone perceived this sizing of a bet as "pricing their own cheap draw" and just shoved any hand that they figured was ahead of you (like KQ or QJ or something)

I mean I think our choices here are to bet $70ish (in which case we'll have to b/c) or b/c after betting smaller. At least if we bet smaller we induce more nonsense.

(edit: I didn't include checking as an option above, because I think to a thinking player checking will seem too suspicious. Depends what level he's on I guess)

How are we playing a blank riv if the turn gets called? Surely we can't get value from worse....

griffey: no matter what size we bet (pot or less) we're not getting odds to call a shove vs his value range. The question is how big is his bluff/semibluff shoving range. Very small imo.

If we bet $70 and he shoves.

The pot will be around $340 and we will have $96 to call. So we will be getting like 3.55:1 (so we need 22%)

I'd argue that in the worst case scenario, its a close fold:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.818% 81.82% 00.00% 324 0.00 { 88, AQs, AQo }
Hand 1: 18.182% 18.18% 00.00% 72 0.00 { Ad9d }

I'd also argue that almost everyone will have some spazz component shoving on the turn, no matter how small. I'd also argue that the smaller we bet (approaching $40), the wider his spazz shoving range/value shoving range will get.

If I only add in JTdd on the turn, which definitely seems like a reasonable shove, especially given the appearance of fold equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 330 0.00 { 88, AQs, JdTd, AQo }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 110 0.00 { Ad9d }

So I don't really think b/c is all that close here, especially when we bet small. (I'm not adjust the odds we need to b/c when we bet small, because I'm content here just b/c $70 but just think betting smaller puts us in an even better situation for b/c)

Board: 3d Qh 8d Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.380% 67.38% 00.00% 504 0.00 { 88, 33, AQs, A8s, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, AQo }
Hand 1: 32.620% 32.62% 00.00% 244 0.00 { Ad9d }


and im sure he has worse flush draws and a lot of spazzes given our 40$ sizing on a card we should always barrel. People don't like to just call with Qx and face a tough river decision on a drawish board.

i dont get it. if i were villain and you bet 40$, I wouldnt shove with any hand. why are you so worried about getting jammed on. Sure, if you want to bet huge to force out all worse hands just so you know you have the artificial odds to call an all in, then youve solved that problem, but really all youve done is isolate the strongest part of his range because youre scared to get outplayed. If youre so worried that you can't put all your chips in with top pair and the nut flush draw in an already big pot, then ffs you need to be bluffing more. I wouldn't even consider b/f this hand vs any opponent on the turn.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

why are you so worried about getting jammed on.

b/c I bet/called $50 and lost. obv too results-oriented, thx everyone.

turned top pair and nfd with 1.5 pot, am i missing something here?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

i dont get it. if i were villain and you bet 40$, I wouldnt shove with any hand. why are you so worried about getting jammed on. Sure, if you want to bet huge to force out all worse hands just so you know you have the artificial odds to call an all in, then youve solved that problem, but really all youve done is isolate the strongest part of his range because youre scared to get outplayed. If youre so worried that you can't put all your chips in with top pair and the nut flush draw in an already big pot, then ffs you need to be bluffing more. I wouldn't even consider b/f this hand vs any opponent on the turn.

would you ever check the turn in zook's position? do we have to bet that turn with everything? why/why not?

Long long long time lurker here.

I like a check/shove on the turn. If he checks behind try for thin river value.

I can't find a hand that he calls the turn with except diamonds, AQ, AK? Hes folding his most likely holding of a pp. I like giving him a chance to catch up or bluff.

Heck maybe c/c, you are so far ahead here usually.

But i have been wrong before.. often.

Originally Posted by Neil MacPhee

Long long long time lurker here.

I like a check/shove on the turn. If he checks behind try for thin river value.

Welcome to FTR!

What would you do with KJ here? With 9Tdd? With 56ss?

This is too good of a bluffing spot to not be betting when we actually hit it here. If you're only checking when you have it, people will notice that very quickly.

If you're shutting down all hands, I suppose thats a different story.

Most people are double barrel bluffing here.

[QUOTE=griffey24;1944430]Welcome to FTR!

What would you do with KJ here? With 9Tdd? With 56ss?

This is too good of a bluffing spot to not be betting when we actually hit it here. If you're only checking when you have it, people will notice that very quickly.


Thanks for the welcome. This is a very nice site, with some good people here.

I was thinking less metagame and more in a vacuum. Looking at this hand alone i want to win as much as possible, and i think the check allows him to bluff turn or pay off river.

Your point is well taken though, this is a primo double barrel bluff spot, but at this level i don't worry much about cultivating long term images.

Thanks again for the welcome.

Hey can i change my user name i wanted to be a little more anonymous and i didnt realize i selected my real name as my user name? LOL.