Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,291,000 Posts!
Poker ForumShort-Handed NL Hold'em

[50NL] AA...BB vs SB. Sick spot on the river, deepstacked.

Results 1 to 9 of 9
  1. #1

    Default [50NL] AA...BB vs SB. Sick spot on the river, deepstacked.

    Villain is 32/24 over 903 hands, ATS from SB 46%, FT3B 66%, 4bet 9%. FTCB 32%.

    PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    MP: $50.89
    CO: $21.71
    BTN: $64.20
    SB: $143.76
    Hero (BB): $102.43
    UTG: $60.01

    SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A A

    fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.00

    Flop: ($9.00, 2 players) 3 4 9
    SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75

    Turn: ($18.50, 2 players) 2
    SB checks, Hero bets $11.50, SB calls $11.50

    River: ($41.50, 2 players) 2
    SB checks, Hero bets $25.25, SB raises to $123.01 and is all-in, Hero ???

    Sick spot, did villain really c/c twice w/ a set? Is he overplaying like TT-QQ, although I expect he 4bets QQ and probably JJ a lot of the time pre.

    Thoughts?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    Don't think it matters all that much tbh with you, you're at the absolute top of your range here (except maybe 99?) and all his flush draws busted. The only downside is we block Adxd. I also think it's reasonable to see villain to turn a weaker PP like 77-TT into a bluff on the river. It's also not insane to think villain could flat AA & KK and shove the river with those hands.

    Just run some stove calculations and see if there are enough obvious bluffs to add into his range to make it a call. I'm guessing there easily are as he is trying to rep about 14 combos.

    I think your flop and turn bets are a bit on the large side too on such a dry board.
  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    8,697
    Location
    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    fold, he beats QQ and you only beat one hand that beats QQ.
  4. #4
    This is a very gross spot imo. I think given the flop is so dry he can def show up with all 9 possible boats here, not to mention some 56s and some A2s (1 combo).

    I really don't think this is a spot that makes sense for villain to turn a hand into a bluff at all, so I doubt he has some pocket into a bluff. He either has something like KQdd/KJdd/QJdd etc (overs+fd) or 2x+/boats.

    I think fold is probably best, but I couldn't fault a call here given where this hand stands relative to your entire range here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Renton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    8,863
    Location
    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    I like a larger turn bet with the stacks and given how many semibluffs you have there. He's probably not going to fold many pairs in a spot wehre you may bet any ace.

    On the river its 56 to you, so you're getting a pretty good price to call, you only need to be good 27%. If you're folding this hand you're folding probably over 90% of your range so I usually look for a reason to call in these spots, when there isn't sufficient information about a player to make a more informed decision.

    My analysis of his range:

    Value hands:

    --99/44/33. He probably takes this line with those hands a good amount of the time in my opinion, call it 50%. So 4.5 combos.
    --A5s/65s/A2s. Definitely in his range and he probably plays them this way, so lets say 75%, he may fold them preflop. 6 combos.
    --JJ+. Extremely unlikely.

    Bluffing hands:

    --Dead hands (not even ace high) I can see none of these other than 76 of diamonds or broadway diamond floats. 2.5 combos.
    --Ax: we block the hell out of these but AJ seems a fairly plausible hand to call flop and turn. Note that he cannot have AdXd. If we had AA with no diamond or better yet, KK, our hand would be MUCH stronger here vs his shove. 8 combos.
    --4x/3x/55-88. These *may* bluff raise here. There are a ton of combos obviously but he would probably bluff them all in with a very low frequency. Lets say 30 combos 1/10 of the time, 3 combos.

    Value: 11.5 / Bluff: 13.5 combos*

    *I do NOT expect a 100% bluffing frequency from these combos. This is kind of an optimistic case scenario. But again, we only need to win 27%. So he only needs to choose to bluff with those hands ~55% of the time for it to be a call.



    Conclusion is that i'd never fold a hand this strong for the odds based on general principle, but it could be correct to fold this and call with KK-JJ and AA with no diamond.
    Last edited by Renton; 03-30-2014 at 06:35 PM.
  6. #6
    It's really hard decission. I don't think that the villain has full or 2x. For my opinion he has maybe pocket pair like TT or JJ, but $100 to call is pretty much money, so I don't know does the risk is worth for those Aces.
  7. #7
    I agree with Renton, turn needs to be bigger for sure. This card is the nuts when we have a legit hand, because ppl expect AK/AQ to barrel now, and if he has Ax he might also be more likely to continue.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    8,863
    Location
    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post


    Value: 11.5 / Bluff: 13.5 combos*


    *I do NOT expect a 100% bluffing frequency from these combos. This is kind of an optimistic case scenario. But again, we only need to win 27%. So he only needs to choose to bluff with those hands ~55% of the time for it to be a call.






    Conclusion is that i'd never fold a hand this strong for the odds based on general principle, but it could be correct to fold this and call with KK-JJ and AA with no diamond.

    I just wanted to point out that I made a pretty large error here. For him to bluff often enough for us to call he needs to have a bluff 27% of the time. He has 11.5 value hands, so:


    x/(11.5+x) = 0.27


    x = 4.25 combos. So he only needs to choose to bluff with his bluffing hands 31% of the time, not 55%.
  9. #9
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    After 900 hands you should have more reads imo. I can't fold here. I play 100% vpip deep vs sb steal and 3bet pre about 40% of hands. I like this one.


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •