Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,282,000 Posts!
Poker ForumShort-Handed NL Hold'em

[50NL] AKo...3bet pot. Turn decision and villain's range

Results 1 to 21 of 21
  1. #1

    US Players Allowed [50NL] AKo...3bet pot. Turn decision and villain's range

    Villain is 38/29 over 24 hands.

    PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (SB): $57.07
    BB: $50.00
    UTG: $50.00
    CO: $51.51
    BTN: $50.00

    Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K A

    UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.25, fold, UTG calls $3.75

    Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) K T 9
    Hero bets $6.75, UTG calls $6.75

    Turn: ($24.50, 2 players) 2
    Hero ???

    Alright, so I'm not really sure what to do on this turn. If I bet, I think am committed to calling off a jam and I don't really want to give up control of the pot by checking either and possibly giving a free card.

    If we assume villain gets to the turn with;

    www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: KhTs9s2s
    Equity Win Tie
    MP3 40.71% 38.30% 2.41% { JJ-99, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KcQc, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QsJs, KdTd, KhTh, KcTc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, KdQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs }
    SB 59.29% 56.89% 2.41% { AdKs }

    That's 42 combos. He prob jams with;

    www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: KhTs9s2s
    Equity Win Tie
    MP3 55.00% 50.91% 4.09% { TT-99, AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc }
    SB 45.00% 40.91% 4.09% { AdKs }

    Which is 21 combos. If we assume villain doesn't just flat again on turn, which is unlikely given remaining stack sizes and board texture, he is folding the other 21 combos.

    Thoughts on ranges and next course of action?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    I'd c/c flop and c/decide turn. We are in a tough spot no matter river and we just cant b/f. Though i think he'd raise flop w/ most combo draws and sets given board texture. Pretty awkward spot vs unknown.
    As played i prefer a c/decide since i will never fold if i bet.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  3. #3
    I would bet smaller on flop. SPR remaining now are awkward to fire 3 barrels.

    As played, I would probably c/c here and let him bluff AQ/AJ stuff and protect JJ/QQ without a spade if he chooses to bet those.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I'd b/c vs these stats even though it's a small sample.


  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I would bet smaller on flop. SPR remaining now are awkward to fire 3 barrels.

    As played, I would probably c/c here and let him bluff AQ/AJ stuff and protect JJ/QQ without a spade if he chooses to bet those.
    Usually I would continue for ~1/2 pot, but that flop is pretty wet so I bet a little more.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  6. #6
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    how about shoving turn? seems weird he flats 2pair+ on that board. so we are pretty much facing a flush or a draw.
    sounds bad?
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  7. #7
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    how about shoving turn? seems weird he flats 2pair+ on that board. so we are pretty much facing a flush or a draw.
    sounds bad?
    Why do you think it's better than b/c? Because we won't be faced with a difficult river decision?


  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    8,887
    Location
    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    I'd check the flop. I don't see many positive outcomes from betting, and I think if he checks behind we'll be able to play our hand super hard on a lot of turns. And he will bet with a weaker range than he will call with. I guess you miss out on some protection/value vs a hand like JJ/QQ but QJ/TT/99 are almost as likely and you're drawing deadish to those.

    On the turn, I think you've isolated his range to being incredibly strong by betting the flop and now there's no play but to check fold. The spade is a terrible card as you only have the second nut draw and he just made a ton of flushes to go along with his myriad two pairs and better. I think you will be surprised at how much complete fucking garbage you will have to add to his range in pokerstove to bring your equity past 40%.
  9. #9
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    Why do you think it's better than b/c? Because we won't be faced with a difficult river decision?
    never folding if i bet. i cant. so i only have c/decide which was /is my first choice and shoving and yes i hate to be called and think about a river decision.
  10. #10
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    I'd check the flop. I don't see many positive outcomes from betting, and I think if he checks behind we'll be able to play our hand super hard on a lot of turns. And he will bet with a weaker range than he will call with. I guess you miss out on some protection/value vs a hand like JJ/QQ but QJ/TT/99 are almost as likely and you're drawing deadish to those.

    On the turn, I think you've isolated his range to being incredibly strong by betting the flop and now there's no play but to check fold. The spade is a terrible card as you only have the second nut draw and he just made a ton of flushes to go along with his myriad two pairs and better. I think you will be surprised at how much complete fucking garbage you will have to add to his range in pokerstove to bring your equity past 40%.
    this is what i'd normally do, yu knew how to put it down.
    but i am concerned i'm again falling to nitt side.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  11. #11
    c/f on this turn seems absurd to me.

    What flushes are we putting villain on that won't raise the flop at least some percent of time?
    AJss/AQss are the most likely FD's and are both combo draws that will conceivably raise flop a good percentage of the time.

    If villain is showing up with things like A5s etc, then he's probably also calling JTs, KJ/KQ etc.

    If I'm checking this turn it's with the intention of c/c, to protect against all the other times I'm c/f stuff like AJ/AQ.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  12. #12
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I think c/f is a pretty cool play here, I didn't even consider it because villain is loose and I usually am as well. +1 for checking flop.


  13. #13
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    then he's probably also calling JTs, KJ/KQ etc.
    Against which c/f turn should work pretty well, no?


  14. #14
    I like c/c on the turn if he bets small and c/jam if he bets bigger. There is a chance he won't bet the river and just check behind and you have the second nut flush draw.

    If he moves in on the river, I would c/f. C/c seems like a breakeven play at best.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    Against which c/f turn should work pretty well, no?
    I guess.... if folding the best hand works well in poker? haha what, am I missing something?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  16. #16
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    You think he bets those hard?


  17. #17
    I might check back KQ/KJ/QQ/JJ with a spade as villain, but probaby betting half pot or so without a spade.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  18. #18
    pocketfours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    2,765
    Location
    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    I think that sounds a bit like shameless redlining like Renton once said.


  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    I think that sounds a bit like shameless redlining like Renton once said.
    haha i never heard that before, that's pretty great.

    Is it? I don't know, I'd certainly feel pretty good IP having Kx or QQ or something if I was facing a check. Betting half pot would be a legit value bet there. Not red lining for the sake of red lining.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  20. #20
    I think that it will be better if you bet again. With checking on the turn, you give him a free card and chance to make straight or set of something. For that reason I think that you have to bet here, and your bet might be about $15 or 1/2 pot like you said.
  21. #21
    that's a pretty gross board for our hand, I think I check, if he bets I probably kick myself in the nuts and fold because TPTK with a backdoor on that wet of a flop is a slightly ahead-flipping or way behind hand. that was one of my biggest leaks, barreling board textures that don't really connect with my perceived range. I mean when you 3bet OOP, you like NEVER flop the nuts cuz your not 3betting QJ OOP you know what I mean? seems weak but fugg it. take my $5 3bet and choke on it while I devise a plan to get all your monies..
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

    "One of the best pieces of advice I've ever read in this forum was three words long...

    bet fucking fold." Ong

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •