$10 HU SNG, bad call?

Based on reads (more post flop than pre flop) I thought SB had an ace. I ended up calling. But should of folded. Right?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.5 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t5040)
SB (t960)

Hero's M: 56.00

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 2
SB bets t120, Hero calls t60

Flop: (t240) J, A, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t120, Hero calls t120

Turn: (t480) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t720 (All-In), Hero ??

Just kidding. I just used pokerstove for the first time and it seems like if he indeed had an ace or better I am around 30% to win. (Is this right?)

If he has an Ace (such as AT), then you have ~31% equity. Given pot odds you need 37% equity, thus a call is -EV.

I don't know exactly what have to do, but maybe you could try to raise or go all-in on flop.

Fold turn. c/shove flop is weird cuz it looks bluffy. Depending on OPP maybe a small c/r to like 300 and shove turn would be okay. Against a random call on flop is fine but you gotta fold turn everytime

I just came back in here and was sad to still see this hand within the top three latest posts. But happy to see that I was playing $10s then and now play 55s :P


Why doesn't the HU forum get more traffic? Its not like other sites don't get plenty..?

480 pot 720 bet... 480 + 720 = 1200

1200 pot, 720 to call...

If both our kings and twos are live, then we have 9 clubs, 3 kings and 2 twos, a grand total of 15 outs from a deck of 46... 15/46 * 100 is a fraction under 33%

Thus, we improve our hand roughly one in three times.

So let's play the hand three times and call each time.

Hand 1, we miss, we lose 720 more chips, win none.

Hand 2, we miss again, damn, another 720 gone, that's 1440 with no return.

Hand 3, BANG! a club falls. Bingo. We still had to invest 720, so in total we've invested 720 * 3, or 2160, and our total return for this investment is 1920. Therefore he has gained 240 of our chips over these three hands.

This is a negative investment, even before we consider the possibility of him having AK, AJ, A3, A2, AA, KK, JJ, Jx clubs, 33 or even 22, which all reduce our outs, and therefore our chances of making a winning hand.

Fold. Every single time. You need to see a shove lower than the pot with this probability of winning in order for this to be a positive long term investment.

I know this is a fairly old thread, but I wanted to force myself to go through the maths and thought process here just so I can see it's a bad call. I'm trying to train my brain into thinking about every bet or call as an investment, one that is relative to the pot I am trying to win.

FOLD PRE-FLOP: your 16 bbs deep...k2 plays pretty bad postflop oop

AS PLAYED: you need to take into account your opponents c-betting percentage

If he is c beting a high percentage you can check raise all in profitably(he has air in his range a decent percent so you know you have good fold equity)... if not you can ck call and easily check fold the turn if you do not improve

Fold K2s heads up? I think not. Do not fold K2s heads up because it "plays pretty bad post flop oop", because otherwise a good HU player will walk all over you very quickly. In my opinion, hero has played this hand badly. He should either reraise pf and put the short stack all in, or at the very least shove the flop. At flop, we have a one in three chance of improving to flush. That doesn't mean villain has a two in three chance of taking the pot down, not if we shove the flop, because sometimes he folds a small pair or maybe even a jack. Sometimes he calls ace and we lose. Sometimes he calls ace and we win. Sometimes he calls a weaker flush draw. Bottom line is, if we shove this flop ten times, we only need four folds to make a long term profit, because we win two times in remaining six by means of flush, making six wins to four losses, and that's before we account for dead money already in pot, and we haven't accounted also for worse hands that call. It's likely just two folds and one worse hand call in ten needed to make a profit.
As played, hero has no choice but to fold now, we're obviously behind and the pot odds are not correct. Stacks should already be in though imo.
Take note... K2 is far from the nuts heads up, but it's nowhere near as bad a hand as it is full ring. It's ahead far more often than it's behind, even to a raise. If you fold K2s pre flop here, you suck at HU.

Fold K2s heads up? I think not. Do not fold K2s heads up because it "plays pretty bad post flop oop", because otherwise a good HU player will walk all over you very quickly.

Yes HEADS UP...this is a heads up forum obv

OP has given us zero reads about the villian which he should have as the match has been going on for a while.

Out of position, k2 plays very badly, especially with 16bb effective stacks. Your argument of "a good HU player will walk all over you very quickly" really has no merit. Unless we flop a king, or a flush draw, it will be very difficult for us to continue taking into account villians cbeting %.

In heads up poker your edge comes from playing a majority of pots in position for obvious reasons. If you are flatting w/ k2, how wide is your oop calling range?? If villian is raising a large percentage of buttons, > 85% jaming pre is definitley profitable because K high is well ahead of his range. But again, this all depends on his raising frequency preflop which we have no info about.

You're right about the lack of info, which does make it difficult to say really how I play K2s against this guy, but I'm rarely folding it HU. Assuming this guy is raising at least 40% of hands on the button, this is a clear 3bet shove. If this guy is weak and only raises aces pairs and broadway, then yes, I can fold this pretty easily. How wide is my oop range HU? That depends on opponent, of course, but king high is certainly is my calling range the majority of the time. It's only against the particularly weak HU players who don't raise enough junk in position that I would lay this down to. I know it plays crap post flop but HU that doesn't necessarily matter. I'm only ever calling this spot with every intention of shoving any flop, when stacks are taken into account that's the only post flop move, but I still prefer to 3bet shove pre against most HU players.

With no info, I prefer to assume that my opponent is at least a little HU aware, especially if we've battled through a field to get HU, but even at HU tables most people are aware they need to play a wider range with aggression, which is exactly why K2 is rarely a fold to a 2bet. This raise could be J2o if it's me on the button, and I'm far from a HU lunatic. We can't just fold to every raise, that's what I mean by being walked over.

yes he COULD be raising with any two cards like j2 but again, we dont know his frequency. If he is raising like 50% of buttons or more (which most HU players will)a 3 bet jam is the best option pre imo.

If He is raising like 25% or a smaller % i would just fold.

I am never flatting k2 with these effective stacks though.

I think we're in agreement. I guess the difference is, you prefer to play cautiously against an unknown HU, while I prefer to play aggressively. If I know he's raising 20% or less, then yeah I reluctantly fold, but K2 is up there with the better hands you'll see HU, I find it difficult to fold it because I could easily not see another king, ace or pair for five or six hands, maybemore. Position is, naturally, a factor, but less so with these stacks, because villain is so short his moves are limited and predictable, and either of us can shove pre to negate post flop position altogether.
I don't think I'm ever flatting this either, but I prefer flatting to fold. It's a min raise, you can't go folding suited paint to min raises HU unless we have a really solid read that our hand is likely dominated (pfr < 20% is a solid enough read for me, though I'm not arguing your 25%, that's still passive enough HU).

I understand your logic but my I think this is either a push fold situation.

Its unfortunate this HU forum does not get much traffic. Normally I go on 2+2 but this is the ONLY poker site that is not blacked by filters at my place of work.

When I get home I will run an ev calculation on this to see what is the cut off of raising the button % he must have in order for our 3 bet jam to be profitable against a perfect calling range.

Yea, you should have folded, at least that is what I would do in the situation. I wouldn't take the chance.

Snap call. He can have either flush draw as well, you have enough equity.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Snap call. He can have either flush draw as well, you have enough equity.

Can I have your sn and site please? I would very much like to play you

Yeah quite, anyone who snap calls this at the turn suffers from delusional optimism.

But he might have a worse draw MWAMWAMWA AALLALLALLLLININ

We're behind in this spot like nearly every time. At the turn it is merely a question of pot odds, nothing more. The pot odds are bad, therefore we fold. You wanna get your chips in looking for a worse draw, shove flop when there's a chance he can fold pocket nines or whatever, or when we at least have two cards to come if he calls a better hand. Yeah sometimes this is a worse draw or even air, but not enough to make up for the times it's an ace or anything else currently beating us, not in my opinion anyway.

I can't see there's any doubt what to do at turn, just fold, it's previous streets that are questionable for me.

Originally Posted by andees10

Can I have your sn and site please? I would very much like to play you

LOL. Noob obviously doesn't realise who ISF is.

Originally Posted by kevster

LOL. Noob obviously doesn't realise who ISF is.

please tell me who he is

lol @ snap call

If you were a detective you'd look at his post count, moderator tag and, in particular his blog.

How often is he raising preflop? You could fold preflop easily here.

And if K2s is a call because of his wide preflop range you definitely shove this flop.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

And if K2s is a call because of his wide preflop range you definitely shove this flop.

exactly what i was trying to say... this spot is pretty standard imo

im NEVER flatting here

It's funny, I saw the post count, saw the moderator tag, and thought "is this guy really snapping this turn?". Nor can I believe that another moderator seriously folds K2s HU to a min raise from the button. Are you guys just trolling?

Just an added point...

Pot odds for pf call... 3:1
Equity against a range of hands that only includes hands dominating K2... 33.5%

Add hands not dominating K2 and our equity increases.

Not that I'm flatting this pre, I shove, but I definitely prefer flatting to folding.

Interesting thread this has become!

OngBonga, your point about your pot odds pre is right on. A lot of players don't realize this and play too tight oop. However, he is only 15bb deep which means he has very little room to bluff. If the villain has a pretty tight raising range here, which I encounter many who do, this can become a fold.

Basically you have to have an idea of how you're gonna bluff postflop if you call.

Whether this is a shove or not... is a straight up math problem.

Flop i'd rather 2.5x the raise than straight up shove.

Yeah I encounter a few silly-tight players HU, ironically they're usually the ones I dispose of fastest as they allow me to grind them down before they become so short they have to gamble. Thing is though, if this min raise is coming from someone whose HU stats are 10/8 or some ridiculously nitty shit, I'm definitely calling this hand to a min raise, because I'm still priced in thanks to said pf pot odds, and he's likely stacking off on any flop, all for a cost of 1bb. If we double him up, it's fine, he's still in danger and we can tighten up our shoving range a little to compensate for his added threat. I don't like to double up a 30bb stack with K2, but I can shrug off 15 when we have 80-odd. I can't think I ever fold this to anybody HU when I have the chip lead. If I'm short, it's very different, we then shove it or fold for sure, but it's my stack that determines whether I call a min raise HU, not his pf raising stats. The lower they are, the more I like the min raise.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

he's likely stacking off on any flop

pretty bad assumption to make...post this hand on 2p2 I guarantee anyone will say this is push or fold.

Yeah it seems a bad assumption to make when taken out of context.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

...if this min raise is coming from someone whose HU stats are 10/8 or some ridiculously nitty shit...

Now is it relly so bad to assume he's stacking off on most flops?

What does he do if he mins AK and misses the flop? Is he folding? Maybe, maybe not. If he's raising 8% of hands, AK/AQ missed flop is a bad as it's getting for him really. What else could he be raising with if he's 10/8? Pocket pairs perhaps? This is why I think a tight player with this stack is going to get his stack in on most flops, because he's probably got a pair already.

I'm calling this spot pre flop if my opponent is a tight pre flop player, if I think he's stacking off on most flops.
I'm shoving this spot pre flop if he's a looser player, because there's a good chance K2 is winning.
I'm folding this spot pre flop if I disconnect and my time runs out.

He raises to 3xbb or larger, it's a completely different ball game, then I can fold easily. It's the min raise that makes this unfoldable for me. PF pot odds... 3:1

your logic is really bad imo. If hes tight pre, what makes you think hell stack off light post? If he has a pocket pair your crushed, and calling to hit a king is terrible considering your implied odds.

Also, whether your short stacked or big stack has NO DIFFERENCE in the hand. All we need to be concerned about is effective stacks. The play has the same expected value regardless of who has the bigger stack.

calling a raise pre w K2 that shallow is BAD. Its such a standard push or fold. The only hands you can flat w/ here are ones that play well post like q10, j10, j9ss, etc. against someone raising like 20-50% Hands that can make top pair. Just because you are getting 3:1 does not mean you can play k2 profitably. Your cant get your money in unless you hit a king. You have no room to maneuver post flop. FOLD OR SHOVE

Yeah I see where you're coming from, but those pre flop pot odds of 3:1 mean I don't need any implied odds if I have equity above 33%. The tighter he is, the more likely he is to stack off on the flop, that's the point I was attempting to make; it's not that crazy logic, he's short stack and hasn't got many folds left in him. If he "only" has AK on a missed flop, he might still think he's good and just get it in. I doubt he folds a pair very often with this stack. Let me reiterate something... I don't call this the majority of the time in this spot, I shove, it's just if I have reason to believe villain is only raising strong hands, that's where I call, because I can quite happily lose 1bb with these relative stacks if it provides me with an opportunity to bust him out now. Implied odds aren't great, but sufficient nonetheless. The way I see it, he's presented us with a cheap flop, we got him covered by more than 5:1, we got plenty of flops in us at this price, I can't see what the problem is with a call here, it seems to me a much better idea than folding. My opinion of course, I'm not all knowing, but at the same time I don't seem to have too many problems HU.

My logic might well be bad, but if I think my opponent is folding K2s to my min raises HU, I'm gonna enjoy myself.

*edit
I think if pot odds are 3:1, we actually only need >25% equity.

[QUOTE=

My logic might well be bad, but if I think my opponent is folding K2s to my min raises HU, I'm gonna enjoy myself.

*edit
I think if pot odds are 3:1, we actually only need >25% equity.[/QUOTE]

Look at what your saying... "but if I think my opponent is folding K2s to my min raises HU, I'm gonna enjoy myself". You leaving out a HUGE piece of info....you are 16 BIG BLINDS DEEP!!! You are going to check/fold the majority of flops. Making the assumption hes stacking off with worse when you hit your king is atrocious imo. Listen calling with k2suited is fine WHEN YOUR DEEPER. The fact the your so shallow is what makes flating here -ev.

I'm not sure how we're 16bb deep. Is this figure coming from his stack?

Just another point... this is tourney, not a cash room. This is significant when it comes to the value of 1bb. We can't simply fold the hand and then cash in our chips, we have to win his stack.

I'm not calling 1bb to win 16bb like at a cash table, I'm calling 1/80th of my stack to win 1st prize, which is infinitley larger than 2nd prize. Since 1bb is worth 1/16th of his stack, we're effectively seeing this flop five times cheaper than he is.

the EFFECTIVE stack (the shortest stack) is the ONLY # that matters. Yes im aware this is a tourney forum. I play HUSNGS for a living lol .... You are not seeing the flop 5 times cheaper than he is. It doesnt matter who is the short stack here. The play is the same expected value regardless.

I understand your point about effective stacks, I realise we can only win 16bb. But you're putting a value on 1bb that is equal to 1bb in a cash table.

The reason the flop is five times cheaper for us is simple...the value I place on 1bb in a HUSNG is determined by our stack size relative to his. 1bb is worth 1/16th of his stack, and 1/80th of ours. That's a five-fold difference. It means we can see five times more flops than him. If someone offers you a beer for a dollar, and then offers me five beers for a dollar, is the beer costing the same for us both?

Our stack is worthless, just like his, until we have 100% of the chips in play. The value of 1bb has nothing to do with buy-in, like in cash tables. That means a reward of 16bb in return for 1bb is different. In this example, a reward of 16bb changes the value of our stack from nothing to everything. On a cash table, 16bb simply changes the value of our stack by 16bb.

LOL

wat

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I understand your point about effective stacks, I realise we can only win 16bb. But you're putting a value on 1bb that is equal to 1bb in a cash table.

The reason the flop is five times cheaper for us is simple...the value I place on 1bb in a HUSNG is determined by our stack size relative to his. 1bb is worth 1/16th of his stack, and 1/80th of ours. That's a five-fold difference. It means we can see five times more flops than him. If someone offers you a beer for a dollar, and then offers me five beers for a dollar, is the beer costing the same for us both?

Our stack is worthless, just like his, until we have 100% of the chips in play. The value of 1bb has nothing to do with buy-in, like in cash tables. That means a reward of 16bb in return for 1bb is different. In this example, a reward of 16bb changes the value of our stack from nothing to everything. On a cash table, 16bb simply changes the value of our stack by 16bb.

^^Does any1 agree with this???

No.

Fair enough. I lose.

its ok live n learn

I think it should have been a fold PF and a fold on the flop. K2s wouldn't really help you much on HU. Plus you don't really have much of a read on him so I would play it safe and say fold.

so much facepalm itt

Should have been a fold. Specially if you already know he has an ace.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

LOL

QFT