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  1. Replies
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    I have other issues with your post but would...

    I have other issues with your post but would really like an answer to the main point:

    So you want to Shove here? smaller 5bet seems pointless (I'd missed that you said "keep raising" -sorry 'bout...
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    No (new) enlightenment from Spoon's links sadly:...

    No (new) enlightenment from Spoon's links sadly: I didn't understand that thread at all. It wasn't all clear why the villain in that thread would 4bet their entire Opening range or why their range...
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    I had no intention of doing a statistical...

    I had no intention of doing a statistical analysis of bet frequency: that would be worthless anyway since plenty of people slow play AA.

    I was thinking you'd look at hands shown down and see that...
  4. Thread: Insta-fold?

    by Timlagor
    Replies
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    2,972

    It's 6 handed...

    It's 6 handed...
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    While your equity looks ok to call the QQ+,AK...

    While your equity looks ok to call the QQ+,AK range, a fair chunk of that equity won't arrive on the flop when villain will (probably) be putting the rest of the chips in: 5:4 are not attractive odds...
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    [F] If you'd raised (I agree you should have),...

    [F] If you'd raised (I agree you should have), the Turn would probably have been checked to you (you bet). If he bets again on the Turn, I doubt you want to be raising again against the player you...
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    I'll come back and read those links when I have...

    I'll come back and read those links when I have more time

    This one depends very much on your metagame. If people mostly only 4bet with KK and AA as I'd guess then you have an easy fold.
    The...
  8. Thread: Insta-fold?

    by Timlagor
    Replies
    11
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    2,972

    You could plausibly float the Flop and hope he'll...

    You could plausibly float the Flop and hope he'll check the Turn but I agree that if you're going to fold with the Ace you probably ought to fold the flop and save that money: you get plenty of...
  9. Thread: Insta-fold?

    by Timlagor
    Replies
    11
    Views
    2,972

    I think the Turn was Raise or Fold. [R] He...

    I think the Turn was Raise or Fold.

    [R] He probably does have the goods at this point so without further information on the villain or metagame I think you should indeed fold. It could be a busted...
  10. Replies
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    1,772

    Do you always plan to get all your chips in then?

    Do you always plan to get all your chips in then?
  11. Replies
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    Hand 3 I'm going to throw that one back at you:...

    Hand 3
    I'm going to throw that one back at you: what do you think he calls the (bigger bet on the) flop with?
  12. Replies
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    I agree: not too much wrong. I'm going to offer...

    I agree: not too much wrong. I'm going to offer up some thoughts on how you might have played differently anyway: you might well want to reject them wholesale but at least it should be food for...
  13. Replies
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    Where did "suspiciously weak player" come from?

    Where did "suspiciously weak player" come from?
  14. Ahh. I was getting confused by so many similar...

    Ahh. I was getting confused by so many similar numbers (much clearer if you use formulae with variables in!) and in particular this "However our hand equity vs Villains range OTF is 50%," from the...
  15. As I understand it the 37% is the chance that you...

    As I understand it the 37% is the chance that you get called and win anyway. (also the chance of getting called and losing)
    I fail to see why this being is multiplied by the chance of getting...
  16. That should be our equity against his checking...

    That should be our equity against his checking range. Hand equity after he checks doesn't include hands he wouldn't check. Whether that's higher or lower than our equity against his IP range is going...
  17. That's ok it was wrong anyway :) P=Pot (12c in...

    That's ok it was wrong anyway :)
    P=Pot (12c in this case)
    ..but in the case you call 'call-win' you win 18c not 24c as your bet isn't won. so it should be
    3P/2*P(call)*P(win|call) =3P/2 * X *...
  18. Replies
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    That's only freerolling if you actually go to the...

    That's only freerolling if you actually go to the 2NL table and make an extra 11c
  19. This does assume 0% hand equity: it makes the...

    This does assume 0% hand equity: it makes the action profitable in isolation and is usually stated as doing so.

    Once you get into hand equity you raise the question of how much of that equity you...
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    A mythical person from concatenating posts...

    A mythical person from concatenating posts apparently :???:
  21. Replies
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    Are you saying you don't look at the stats when...

    Are you saying you don't look at the stats when you play or that you want to deprive us of the information you made your decisions based on?

    While I don't look at the HUD for every single action...
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    If you think you have to respond with a proper...

    If you think you have to respond with a proper bet every time then you're playing their game. Treat it as a nearly-check until you have a read on what it's actually telling you. While the pot odds...
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    You can't count on sets having raised; perhaps...

    You can't count on sets having raised; perhaps they should have raised but that's not the same thing at all.

    [R] X*/F**
    * What's he calling that doesn't beat you? TPTK perhaps but his $5 says...
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    Definitely right to fold to the raise. [T] You...

    Definitely right to fold to the raise.

    [T] You might get (flat-)called by worse but it's not very likely. Which worse do you have in mind?
    I suppose you might get people doing that with 1-Spade...
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    Make a note on this villain! Looks like 5:1...

    Make a note on this villain!

    Looks like 5:1 (16%) for that call. I agree that's a call, though probably not by very much.
    Normally I'd reckon he was raising with flush draws (very occasionally),...
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