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Your focus is on our shape when we're up against 2pr, but even if they have all 2pr combos, it's still vastly more likely they have just 1pr. In fact, them having Q3 and Q4 in their ranges is...

You're assuming your A and 9 are always good, which they're not. And then there's rake. So it's less marginal than you think.

But I did say I wasn't sure about the turn.



Not at all. How...

What 2 pair hands does villain flop?

Shoving the flop is not -ev.

AQ is the worst hand they can have from our pov, along with QQ 33 and 44. That's not much of their ranges, and even against this part of their ranges, we're still not losing much money.

Calling...

Is it -ev when we get one call? There's dead money in the pot from the guy who folded, plus we have an overcard at least sometimes. Also, we might get called by a worse flush draw sometimes. All this...

Just shove the flop. We're printing money here by taking the easiest possible route.