AQ sb steal, turns nuts, facing river shove

villain is shaping up reg 32-24 over small sample so far - i haven't played much at this stake/site yet so far, 9% 3b, folded to 2/3 cbets so far, nothing out of line
flop and turn play? sizing?
river sigh?

Stacks:
UTG 150bb
CO 33bb
BTN 122bb
daven (SB) 172bb
BB 107bb

Pre-Flop: daven is SB :ah: :qc:
3 folds, daven raises to 3bb, BB calls

Flop: :jc: :td: :4s: (6bb, 2 players)
daven bets 4bb, BB calls

Turn: :kd: (14bb, 2 players)
daven bets 11bb, BB calls

River: :6d: (36bb, 2 players)
daven bets 26bb, BB goes all-in ,

I think it's only a flush draw that calls on Turn, any other hand like two pair or a set would raise there I think. Flush or bluff. With his stats he can hold anything.

I give him about 8 combos of flushes, that may be conservative. Does he really jam JT/KJ? How about Q9? I think he almost never has a set because he 3-bets JJ/TT and probably raises bottom set on the flop.

Folding seems a little exploitable so I'd call with a diamond blocker and fold without one.

With even a little dynamic going on this would be a snap.

ugly river. we have to look at from villain POV also, you raise pre and bet,bet,bet. he could have a set, I mean king is bad turn card to raise from his POV because you might fold a weaker hand due to overcard, or you could of hit the straight and he might be value-owning. I wouldn't be surprised to see 44s here. could be flush too but what hands with diamonds float flop? 9d8d? Qd9d? Q9 would raise turn I assume with the redraw. I call for sure. its 100bbs so I think sizing is good, turn I think I bet 12bbs but wtf is 1 bb. lol its a sick spot for sure but unless I knew he was floating me I would call.

Please don't raise turn with Q9dd.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by acg123

could be flush too but what hands with diamonds float flop?

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AJdd/AQdd/A4dd/89dd/79dd/Q9dd/QJdd/J9dd/J8dd are all realistic hands to call (not necessarily with the intention to float) flop. I don't discount any of them based on the turn call. Raising Qd9d on that turn would be pretty bad given that i'm non-nit unknown in villain's eyes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Folding seems a little exploitable so I'd call with a diamond blocker and fold without one.

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so call AdQx and AxQd, fold the rest?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

AJdd/AQdd/A4dd/89dd/79dd/Q9dd/QJdd/J9dd/J8dd are all realistic hands to call (not necessarily with the intention to float) flop. I don't discount any of them based on the turn call. Raising Qd9d on that turn would be pretty bad given that i'm non-nit unknown in villain's eyes.

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I tend to jump to conclusions without fully thinking them through.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

so call AdQx and AxQd, fold the rest?

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I suppose, if there is nothing else going on suggesting aggro blind battles. Also call with them flushes.

I see no need to defend this hand, you have loads of diamond blocking hands that have much higher equity against his range, not to mention flushes yourself. Interestingly the Ad blocker would be the worst one to have because if he's bluffing optimally he'll choose the Ad blocker for most of his bluffs. So I think I might even fold AdQ, but call with AQd. KJ/JJ with diamond are probably solid bluff catchers as well, but they block his bluffs which are usually pairs Jx Tx with a big diamond.

Anyway long story short, fold this and be content with the fact that a huge bit of your river betting range are flushes and diamond blocking value hands.

Also think it's a fold. There's no reason for your opponent to feel like he strong reps a flush here, nor does he have reason to believe you can't have a flush here, nor does he get here with air ever. So you'd have to make the assumption that he's capable of turning a made hand into a bluff here and that he feels like he can get you off a strong hand. I just doubt it, so fold.

Without reads and history, this is probably a fold, certainly on the micros.
But then again, every float would exactly look like this...

I think that I would call. I think he has not a flush draw or it is very unlikely. You cbet on the flop is of 66% of the pot, and the villian would have a backdoor flush draw. With those stats I don't really think he might have it. The only flush draw combos I think he might have are JQs or AJs or J9s at the most. He might have doubles like TJ, TK or KJ or even a set of 444 or maybe TTT, and didn't reraise in any of the previous streets in order for you to keep betting. I think that you made it pretty clear to him that you didn't want the flush to complete and maybe he using that information against you.
This is why I think you are almost always ahead of him, but still it is a bit tough call.