That was a joke. I don't attach any significance to the avatar.
Being ranked 4/6 though, I think you'd be happy with that?
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So looking at Benny's first day, he basically went back and forth between seriously accusing Jack and seriously accusing Luco, threw in a joke accusation at baudib in-between, before finally going with the crowd and lynching Oskar.
If I'm either of Jack or Luco and a wolf I'm obviously going to be nervous about this (unless I'm a sociopath), but I'm also going to be aware that killing Benny will make me look suspicious, since i was one of his main targets. So I don't think it's either of them that's a wolf.
If I'm spaceman or mnstrman, Benny was pretty trusting of both and there's no reason to kill him when he's off on the wrong track and defending us besides. So neither of them is a wolf imo.
If I'm Ong or baud, killing Benny gets rid of a pretty active villager and doesn't make either of us look suspicious.
So it's Ong and baud as my two top votes. I'll keep my vote to baud first cause it's fun watching Ong squirm. Also because neither of them will kill me on night two 'cause that's pretty much a confession.
Poop either is the greatest wolf ever and divined that my secret wolfteam is ong/baduib or is just a villager
That being said, some posts from both of them give me pause as to whether or not they are actually teamed
Could just be jack vance/spacecamp and in that world one of baud/ong is the jk I guess
Seems pretty mechanical from my pov
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***** Vote Count *****
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on the block | # votes | who voted (in what post)
Spacecamp | 2 | baudib (458), ong (501)
baudib | 2 | monstrman (421), Poop (522)
JV | 1 | Spacecamp (496)
It's interesting that sapcecamp was on baudib, but now baudib has real heat, he's not.
Spacecamp, put your vote on baudib so he can be hammered. I dare you.
The benny kill only implies that there's a reg amongst the wolves. That's also probable. I'd definitely kill benny, so would baudib luco and jack. The others might.
By the way, spacecamp is twice as likely to be a wolf than the JK, from a pure mathematical pov. There's two wolves, and only one JK. A wolf is claiming JK when he thinks he's in trouble, at least when it hasn't been claimed. If spacecamp is a wolf, the other wolf is certainly not claiming JK, because then the real JK cc's and the wolves are screwed.
If poop is a wolf, he's not a great wolf, he's just very good at not being wolfy. If he can combine that with appearing like a useful villager, then he's a great wolf. Poop hasn't done enough to justify being a useful villager. But he has done enough to not be lynched. That's a decent first game performance, whatever his alignment.
Ong there have been more than a few noob wolves who have carried their teams on this very site. The problem isn't being new to wolfing, it's becoming more experience at villaging. When you establish a town meta you become conscious of the differences and obviously other people notice.
I don't really think Poop is a wolf either, but I still have concerns.
I'm not particularly concerned. If spacecamp isn't a wolf, then I'm concerned. But he is a wolf.
I really hope poop is the JK, because his claim, when it comes, will be terrible for the wolves.
Why does monstr think jack is a wolf?
Let's assume spacecamp is a wolf. Monstr sees a speed wagon which he's on, along with me and jack, which causes the wolf to fakeclaim JK.
If spacecamp is a wolf, I'm pretty much hard clearing monstrr for the part he played in the wagon. There's no reason to think spacecamp was hard bussed by his wolf bro. So I extend that hard clear to Jack, too.
Monstr should have me and jack as nailed on villagers, at least for now.
Poop with the analysis.
It's pretty decent analysis actually but I think the way you are trying to guess the motives of the wolves is understandable but from my experience not accurate. Noms are usually either special hunting or killing off the most villagery looking person, especially early and mid game. I remember a game where Gator was a wolf and throughout the whole game I was trying to figure out the logic of why this and that person was getting eaten, linking it to people and their motives. But when the game ended I checked out the den and all Gator and team did was try to kill whoever they thought was most likely to be the seer every night. Notice that Benny was a special, so either the wolves sniffed that out or more likely, he had positioned himself as a solid villager.
That's an example of the kind of reasoning I don't agree with because it's too easy for the wolves to fake. Especially when you say it out loud.
Poop getting fun out of imagining me squirming. Quite the imagination.
When I'm a wolf,. I don't tend to suggest we kill people who suspect me or other wolves, and couldn't care less how it reflects upon me because I can easily argue that he was killed to frame me. I understand poop feels the need to try to analyse the night kill, but with experience he'll learn that wolves don't tend to think like he thinks they do.
Last game when I was wolf, my final kill was hoopy. He was reading me as a villager. But I knew coming into final day, hoopy would reassess, so that didn't influence my decision. I killed hoopy because I felt that's who rascal would think gator would kill. Wolves tend to think on a different level to "let's kill those who suspect us". It's nearly always either special hunting, killing confirmed villagers, killing obvious villagers, killing strong villagers, or an attempt to level the village. Sometimes it might be as simple as "he thinks I'm a wolf so he's gotta go", but I don't think like that, and I wouldn't expect baudib, jack or luco to think like that either.
I'd be 100% special hunting n1 in this setup, and I've never wanted to night kill someone just because they suspected me. There's always a more important reason to want someone dead
n1 is nearly always special hunting. If you can't find any reason to think someone is special, the next best thing to do is kill the most dangerous seer. benny fits the bill nicely there.
All I take from the n1 kill is that there's probably an FTR reg amonst the wolves. Probably. It's not out of the question that two non-regs realised benny was a strong kill, so it's not a given. But I lean towards there being a wolf between jack, luco and baudib purely because of the night kill. I wouldn't consider it a huge tell though.
Someone who has played many times on FTR. A regular.
baudib is L-1. I could hammer him right now. If he's a wolf with spacecamp and gets lynched today, we've won, we'd only need a counterclaim to guarantee it.
baudib needs to get his ass in here and start villagering, quickly.
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***** Vote Count *****
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on the block | # votes | who voted (in what post)
baudib | 3 | monstrman (421), Poop (522), Spacecamp (545)
Spacecamp | 2 | baudib (458), ong (501)
EOD is in a little over 5.5 hours.
luco could hammer baudib too. We'd both be happy to, based on our comments so far today. Would spacecamp really put his vote there if he's his wolf bro?
Honestly, it doesn't feel like baudib is a villager. luco, I guess I'm 50-50 and wouldn't be surprised either way. Given that I'm still near certain you're a wolf, I'm confused why you would happily put baudib's neck on the block if he's a wolf with you, because you can't hope to win alone. So that has me thinking that either luco is the wolf, or that somehow you actually are the JK and that we're in a very bad spot.
But herein lies the problem. You don't seem to be in any hurry to find wolves (like I would expect if you're JK), while you also don't seem to be worried about the village being in a bad spot. So I'm still near certain you're a wolf.
I have not cast my vote so I could put the nail in the coffin as well for baudib. He does look wolfy because his reasonings don't seem logical. But why finish someone off when he's on the block with only 4 hours left? That would just be bad play.
A hammer with 4 hours left is fine. We should wait for baudib in case he has a counterclaim, but time isn't a problem.
Would you prefer another CFD?
(CFD = Chinese fire drill, a disorganised last minute lynch with very little time to spare)
jack, do you agree that spacecamp's baudib vote is unlikely to come from a wolf bro? Or would you be inclined to think that he just doesn't see what other option he has?
It doesn't feel like w/w distancing from spacecamp
Just think about why I would say we kill spacecamp after he hard-claims. Don't insult me and think I would do that under normal circumstances.
Monstr -- should always be a villa here but I'm concerned that he's acting a little too lackdaiscal about the game being mechanically locked. Still I would only reconsider at F3.
Ong -- He's straight villaging and I would have guessed he was a special because he has projected an inner confidence in his ability to fend off pressure this game. He's pretty pure and should frankly always die in the next two nights.
Luco -- Tone is fine but just seems to be lacking. Where's his hunting/solving?
Poop -- Pretty impressive for his first game regardless of alignment. I am a little paranoid about him because he's probably getting too much cred for being a noob. If this was an experienced player the shape of his game could easily be wolf.
Jack -- Villager? I guess I can see it but I really feel like he was TMIing and his D1 was not villagery either.
So what do you think luco? Is spacecamp JK? Is poop a wolf with spacecamp? Or was spacecamp hard bussed?
As a villager he has to vote for baudib so as a wolf he has to do the same. That said I don't see how they are likely wolves together because baudib REALLY wanted spacecamp lynched after the JK claim. Seems very far away from optimal wolf team play.
baudib, you're L-1 with hours to go. Don't soft claim JK. Either hard claim it and we'll hang spacecamp, or hope to avoid lynch.
I'm happy to lynch the JK claim, that can count as a soft claim too. We can't both be JK now, can we?
Alright don't let his partner come in and hammer me. I know I haven't been active in this game but I don't wanna take the blame for throwing.
HARD-CLAIM JK
n1 I protected Ong he was the most obvious villager to me and seemed like he could be tracker.
I'm gonna try to JK the wolf and live tomorrow.
Why the hell would you jail someone you thought was tracker? Absolutely nuts.
I don't like this either. If I'm JK, I'm delighted if the other wolf hammers me because then we've won.Quote:
Alright don't let his partner come in and hammer me.
baudib is the wolf.
I'd kind of gotten to the point where spacecamp could only be a wolf with baudib, but that's looking less likely with every post
I haven't wolf read poop at all this game, tonally he's pretty pure but I also think hard bussing in this setup would be near suicide so I would have to reevaluate if spacecamp flips wolf
Fuck me dead.
They could both be wolves having fun before they die.
A cc from the real JK now would be winning.
rescind spacecamp
I'd like everyone to post before we lynch anyone. If anyone else is the JK, please claim.
baudib I've been practically soft claiming JK since spacecamp claimed, and I'm vanilla. It's not out of the question for me to suppose you're doing the same as me.
I'm about to have my dinner. Don't lynch anyone during the next hour, we need to figure this out.
I was expecting Baudib to claim JK, this is what I was waiting for. Spacecamp got to L-1 and it fizzled, but after the claim baudib really wanted him dead. The only explanation is that from that point on either baudib is the JK, or he is pretending to be. No way he could be a vanilla villager anymore.
I was pretty much thinking it's always Jack but the post where Poop talks about the night kill reads like a wolf who killed Benny to incriminate Jack.
So its either spacecamp and poop, or baud and...?
Who hasnt wanted baud dead here?
I think we need to hear from spacecamp as well. He said he'd be more active now. And he has been counter claimed.
Alright, I'm now off to look for who Baudib's partner is.
At least we're gonna have a spicy eod
Reading Luco doesn't give me partnery vibes with Baudib. Kinda scummy ones, like he "Arooooos" at the start of game, but nothing makes me think Luco is teamed with Baudib.
Poop was my second ping in Baudi's ISO, so I'm going to look there now.
Ok so if we lynch one of the JK claims today, we either...
a) lynch a wolf, the JK gets killed tonight, and we have two lynches to find the other wolf, or
b) we lynch the JK,tomorrow we lynch a wolf, then final day we have to kill the wolf or we lose.
If we ignore them both, then...
a) we lynch a villager, the wolves kill the JK, we lynch the wolf, we have to find the other wolf on the last day,
b) we lynch a villager, they kill a vanilla, we have two lynches to find both wolves, while still not knowing who's the JK and who's the wolf,
c) we lynch the other wolf, we've won.
I think we have to lynch one of the claims.
Right now I'm leaning towards luco and baudib, which is insane considering how confident I was that spacecamp was lying.
baudib is still L-1, it should go without saying that he should not be hammered while spacecamp is analysing.
Yes ong, we have to lynch one of the claims
In a world where I'm a villager, tell me - are you running out of partners for both of these guys like I am?
I'd prefer spacecamp as wolf because the it's easier.
poop is still a villager. If we lynch a wolf today, poop should be jailed. If we don't lynch a wolf today, well I guess nobody gets jailed because we've lynched the JK.
spacecamp looking a lot more like a villager right now than baudib is.
I'm leaning baud right now.
His post of 'guys lynch spacecamp please' is a horrible soft for a real jk to make, it tips your hand to the wolves yet offers nothing to the village. Feels more like wolf baud phrased it that way so he could have a different explanation for it if the spacecamp lynch went through