AK top two facing aggression - 200NL

Villain is a reg. Most of my hands against him are short handed so not sure how relevant the stats are. 20/15/2.2 5%3b over 250 hands. I have not seen villain get out of line before or show bluffs.


BB ($200)
UTG ($403.36)
UTG+1 ($61.98)
MP1 ($199)
Hero (MP2) ($797.72)
CO ($181.86)
Button ($115.20)
SB ($275.66)


Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
3 folds, Hero raises $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, 1 fold


Flop: ($14) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.33, SB raises $32, Hero calls $22.67


Turn: ($78) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $62, Hero calls $62


River: ($202) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $175.66 (All-In)

As played i'd fold river w/ reads.
I would 3bet flop and decide on his timing. Instant shove i'd fold.
Anyway his only repping 99,but is hard choice cause of your reads.
Would he play A9s/K9s like this? Doez he call them pre? Strange spot for me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

As played i'd fold river w/ reads.
I would 3bet flop and decide on his timing. Instant shove i'd fold.
Anyway his only repping 99,but is hard choice cause of your reads.
Would he play A9s/K9s like this? Doez he call them pre? Strange spot for me.

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3b folding the flop is pretty bad. You're just raising to 'find out where you're at', and turning AK into a bluff.

I think hero played the hand fine, and once I call down I probably end up calling river, but I can see some merit to folding. Villain has 3 combos of 99, but only 1 combo of A9s. Does villain ever flat AK pre?

Folding probably isn't so bad given so many A9s combos are blocked.

Not just to see where i am. From what op says, this one should only have 99 on flop,but maybe he has a bad day and i am raising flop to build a pot while he is willing to call with whatever his hand is and make it easier for a turn AI. If we jusy call, he may reconsider turn and gibe up his bluff or get scared by a card. We could be facing 99, but what if he has QJ/Kx/Ax, why not build a pot while is open for it?
If on a bad day for villain, river can still be a call since now he can value himself w/ KT/AT/A5 or just has a 3bartel bluff. Anyway, i still believe is a strange
Spot vs this and not an easy decision.

I think the river is certainly a fold vs the described player, but I wonder if you can fold the turn as well. He bet really large there, I just don't think 62 is often a bluff and he probably can't even have A9. Really your only reason to call turn / fold river is because you believe he has semi-bluffs that he gives up with on the river. But there aren't many of those when the gutter gets there on the turn.

Villain is 16-13-5, 34% steal, 12% pfr from MP, 55% fold to pf 3b, 16% pf 4b plays tables 50nl through to 200nl. Decent. 71% flop cbet, 45% turn cbet,

I would have also fold at the river. I think he was holding a set there.

Its possible he turned 2 pair with A10, and like the others said a set is very possible too, that is a big bet on the river so very hard to call, I'm guessing you folded and didn't find out?

me 2 :) once I call down I probably end up calling river

Calling Turn and folding River would be a little odd as he'd have to have had 55 to overtake you: you'd be saying you didn't trust your Turn read (and his bet is less than Pot here so it's not unexpected).

So Turn is where the decision should have come. It was foldable if you were content to wait for a better spot but also dangerous. I think I like shoving the Turn (make him worry about the QJ -unlikely with flop B/C but... or AAA/KKK which you could have played like this) -that does scare off his weaker holdings but this doesn't strike me as a good spot to try to milk him. The question is whether the shove will fold his 99 ever. If not then you still need to decide you're willing to put the money in on the River before you call the Turn.

Folding Turn is a close second for me and might well be the better move: a little more info on the villain could tip it either way. 250 hands isn't enough to be confident of anything much: he only played 50 of them at all.


Do you know what your image is (with him)?

We all agree it's a tough spot which probably means there's not much in it long-term.

Wow, villain's range seems like 99 exactly. I don't think I can fold this fearing a 3-combo range. But I'm hardly surprised when he shows 99.

Villain reps 99 only at the flop. This is where we can get away. Once I call the flop raise, I don't see me folding at all.

Ouch, tough spot. You guys really folding top2 here?
IMO as played, A9 is as likely as 99.

This villain isn't flatting A9 oop. Maybe suited... of which there is one combo... and that's still just a maybe.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

This villain isn't flatting A9 oop.

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Now THAT's exactly the question.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sin Uggla

IMO as played, A9 is as likely as 99.

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You need to be aware this isn't true. There are 6 combos of A9 (two aces multiplied by three nines), one of which is suited (spades). There are three combos of 99.

So, he's twice as likely to have A9 than 99 (6/3), but he's three times more likely to have 99 than A9s (3/1).

Whichever way you look at it, your quoted comment here is incorrect. I understand the point you're making... that A9 could play the hand like this too... but to say both are equally as likely is an incorrect assumption, and could contribute to an incorrect decision.

This is a very tough situation.
Personally I would put my opponent on 99 right away most of the time. I don't think a lot of regs like to call A9 or QJ out of position preflop to make a play like that.
I think we can add AT and AK (not likely because he should have reraised) to his ranges for making that kind of play.