100 zoom - tricky river c/r

villain is a reg, no hud running

I believe I can take this line w/ sets and flushes, so I opted to choose KT w/ the Kc as my bluff hand. I don't think I'd bluff any wider because I do cbet flush draws and flopped sets sometimes

I think villains range is mostly Ax, given that we block Tx I think he will bet more often than check when checked to. Not sure how thin people bet (and should bet) with the Ax portion of their range OTR but I think A9+ is reasonable given my line?

As far as sizing goes I wanted to size small enough so I could have sets in my range, but maybe in a vacuum an overshove is best. Comments on sizing appreciated. Given that I have the nut flush blocker, I am tempted to create a strategy that involves c/bombing all in on the river with KcXx and KcXc because that would put villain in the worst spot possible?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

Button ($124.55)
SB ($114.44)
BB ($69.09)
UTG ($190.99)
MP ($118.32)
Hero (CO) ($122.98)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K:club:, 10:diamond:
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, Button calls $2.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.50) A:club:, 4:heart:, 10:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($6.50) 5:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $4.16, Button calls $4.16

River: ($14.82) 8:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9, Hero raises to $41.50 Button faces $32.50 to call

Is it too level 1 of me to say that I think you show up with exactly this type of hand a lot?

How often are you checking Kcxc on the flop?

Given how capped his range is it seems like overbetting river would be better.

I think on AT4 two tone specifically most players in your situation will not have a substantial c/r range as the PFR. It's just not a spot where weak made hands are very compelled to bet when checked to. For example anything made hand strength like A8 and lower is likely to check back, whereas on J34, theses low to medium strength hands have greater vulnerability and gain more from getting protection. So frankly, I don't really buy that you could have many sets here and I'd be surprised if you could ever have a flush.

On the river, you have a few things going against you:

1) You're unable to check-raise here to a small enough size that would give you reasonable pot odds for your bluff (i.e. to 23.82, which would still require him to fold a whopping 50%), because it would likely be too small to fold out any non bluff hand in practice. You end up risking nearly 2x what is in the pot so he has to fold nearly two thirds.

2) As above, your actual range notwithstanding, an extremely narrow slice of your perceived range could be taking this line for value. I think you credibly rep 55 and 7h6h/7s6s/7d6d, and that's about all.

3) I think his range to bet 9 on the river is pretty damn strong to be honest. Imagine what his flop check back range looks like and how few of those hands are strong enough to bet river, especially if he's the type of player who is wary of betting a capped range in position. A lot of regs will pass on fairly thick value bets in such spots just because they don't want to be check raised. He probably can't have a big ace, and he's potentially not value betting A7. Essentially, he's either bluffing or he has aces up or a turned or rivered set quite often here. I'm a little bit afraid that for the pot odds you're laying yourself that he only needs to defend A8+ to be snapping you off plenty here. I'm curious what your thoughts are here, maybe I'm seeing monsters under the bed. If I'm right, this is pretty devastating to the viability of your line.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

How often are you checking Kcxc on the flop?

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my first thought on seeing this hand was wondering what your check-call vs check-fold ranges look like here. I can't imagine check-raising anything here being a good play in a reads vacuum. It seems super likely that you're going to be c-betting Kcxc here a decent portion of the time? Would you play Jc9c this way?

I remember a few years ago a lot of discussion about nobody ever check-raising the river as a bluff often enough and a long irc chat about it with redzill4 after check-shoving him for value and him laughing that i never ever ever lost to his non-nut hand in that spot so ez fold. And subsequently losing quite a few stacks through simply experimenting with that line. This seems similar and obviously you block the nuts but villain can think you're full of shit. Comes down to answering whether or not he folds AQ/AK/A8s/T8s i guess. Your co steal range is way wider than a reg's button calling range here, he can't really have 67s, T8 and 55 have to be unlikely too, there are at most a couple of flushes in his range given Ac and Kc on the board etc.

My goal as a poker player is to one day give better analysis than Renton on one hand.

I'm not optimistic.

Checking any flush draw other than like 5c4c is IMO burning money. There's a decent case to check flush draws like 0.5% of the time in a mixed strategy to be tricky, but beyond that....

Renton, are you talking about the AT4cc type textures or any flush draw on any board as PFR?

I've put some nut flush draws and KQs in c/c range on boards where people aren't folding any real hand and will float with overs (say 843 two-tone) to have hands that can improve and play well OOP on the river.

I think there's a decent case to check/call with the worst flush draws in these spots, stuff like 8c6c. Basically, when you check/call its quite hard to have a polarized range on turns and rivers because of the nature of what hands are comfortable/profitable to check/call.

Imagine the situation where someone raises preflop, you call in position, it's heads up, he check/calls your bet on the flop, the turn goes check check, and he bets the river. Most regs in that position bet like 2/3 pot and its nearly always value. In reality these players have so little in their range that could pass for air (basically the weakest ace high hands he c/c'ed), that they should need to bet like 1/6 pot or observant opponents would fold almost 100%. So they essentially need to get to the river with more air, somehow. The problem with this is that the bluffing opportunity simply will not arrive often enough for him to c/c a complete air hand on the flop. Suppose after you bet the flop you'll on average bet the turn 60%, which is not an uncommon frequency. Well that means he'll only have the bluffing opportunity only 40% of the time, in spite of calling the flop 100%.

(assuming flop bet of 1 unit into 1.5 units [2/3 pot], and river bet of 2.5 units into 3.5 units)

0 = (0.4)*x*(2.5) - (0.4)*(1-x)*(3.5) - (0.6)*(1)

x = ~83%

40% of the time he checks turn, 60% of the time he bets turn, of the 40% you'll bet the river and he'll fold x% and call 1-x%. If he folds you win the 1.5 flop pot plus his bet, if he calls you lose the 1 dollar bet plus your 2.5 bluff. And you lose the 1 dollar bet the entire 60% that he bets turn.

He needs to fold 83% of the time. So then in other words you would need to call with only 17% of your range to make him indifferent to the line of c/c flop with complete air.

So we then establish that he has to have some sort of strong equity hand like a flush draw or a gutshot to take this line, which everybody already knows. The problem is that these hands are profitable to c/c AND profitable to bet, and those options are in competition with one another. I've seen people c/c stuff like Kc4c here and IMO it's absolutely gross. The most profitable situation in poker is to have a big pot, a polarized range, and to make a big bet into that pot. Kc4c is a hand that will be able to do this on a huge percentage of board runouts. All strong draws are must bets (or perhaps check/raises) on the flop, even if they have some superficial showdown value like king high or bottom pair, simply because that leads to more situations where you're able to stick your stack in with a range that includes air, and your opponent will feel forced to defend for his stack with medium strength hands.

Even gutshots have this polarity advantage and should probably just be bet on ATx, but it is closer the less nutty and strong the draw is. Which is why I think if you were to c/c a flush draw, it should be a very low one.

I think I would always bet K4cc on this flop but in spots like I mentioned, let's say AQcc on 843cc, c/c will be ok because otherwise when we check we are always either A. giving up on the pot or B. getting to the river with a range of only bluffcatchers.

I think I actually got this idea from M2M so his input would be appreciated here. Like when you bet AQcc there obviously it can't be terrible because we have so much equity but basically when they fold they had a worse hand anyway.

let me know if this is wrong.

Check/call with AQcc there would be about as inferior to betting as it would be with KK, if not more so.

Then what hands should we c/c there and how are we ever calling down with that range?

I mean if M2M says he has flushes in this spot I tend to believe him, I'm not sure that checking too many Kxcc hands is optimal on this board but I suppose he'd have to if he wants to bluff this runout.

as always thanks for your input Renton.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Then what hands should we c/c there and how are we ever calling down with that range?

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Well the last part is easy, you just call down "enough." The sad fact is that OOP play is often a matter of defensively calling down so as not to be terribly exploitable. Check calling with a nut flush draw or a set is not going to greatly change this fact. After all, it is very difficult combinatorically to have sets and flushes, so it wouldn't usually serve to balance your range at all, only to give you like 1-2% more hands to call down with.

You can make your OOP check-call game a lot stronger by using thoughtful hand selection with the medium strength hands that are, as ever, competed for by the c/c c/r and bet choices you have on the flop. Unlike sets and nut draws, medium strength hands are often offsuit, and are very frequent in your range, so how you play them strongly affects how others should play against you.

As to your 843cc flop, first of all that's a very uncommon flop texture, you'd be better served looking at more common ones like Txx Jxx, but whatever. Basically on 843 you'll want to check call with a range that covers bad runouts for your perceived c/c range. Clubs are a large category of those so I think its probably a pretty decent play to c/c with some weak flush draws. I would choose JT/J9/T9/T7/97 for this. Notice the problem we mentioned before, how this is only 5 combos, its not likely to influence his decision to barrel off on clubs, but it will influence the money we make with those individual hands by c/c instead of bet, which is good.

I'd also c/c with probably any flopped pair that has a K, Q, or J kicker, such as K8s Q4s etc. Notably I would be more likely to bet the pairs with ace kicker because we are already very strong on Ace runout because of our ace high calls. I'd also bet the pairs with very low kickers because they benefit from protection and contribute relatively nothing to a c/c range. In my opinion the worst runouts for our c/c range are K, Q, J and club, and I'd base my whole strategy around defending relatively often when those cards fall. Sadly there's just no way to defend on the clubs particularly often without sacrificing big value with your draws. You can, however, c/c with a lot of big one club hands so at least you'll not be folding the turn when a club comes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

I think on AT4 two tone specifically most players in your situation will not have a substantial c/r range as the PFR. It's just not a spot where weak made hands are very compelled to bet when checked to. For example anything made hand strength like A8 and lower is likely to check back, whereas on J34, theses low to medium strength hands have greater vulnerability and gain more from getting protection. So frankly, I don't really buy that you could have many sets here and I'd be surprised if you could ever have a flush.

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This (as well as your other points) makes a lot of sense. I hate this c/r now considering how villains range is going to look by the river based on the board texture.

I didn't like your line. I would have cbetted the flop, around 3,75-4$, then made another cbet on turn of around 50-60% the pot. If he calls the turn bet and you actually hit your your flush on the river following my line, you have created a big pot, and you can check with 4 clubs on the board, giving the "perfect" opportunity for him to bluff you. I'm not a great bluffer but I just wouldn't like to be in your situation, because I don't know if villian would get bluffed easily. If you are almost 100% sure that he is likely to fold to that bluff then go ahead, but with no hud I wouldn't do that.