5NL 6M - 65s in BB, bluff

MP is 22/13 after 64 hands, cb 2/3
CO is 19/13 after 254 hands, folded to 2/7 cbs

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

MP ($5.07)
CO ($5.23)
Button ($4.42)
SB ($5)
Hero (BB) ($5.06)
UTG ($5)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
1 fold, MP raises $0.15, CO calls $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.47) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $0.30, MP calls $0.30, 1 fold

River: ($1.07) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70

Call pre is probably a bit questionable, getting good odds though and neither player seems particularly good.

Flop I'm checking with the intention to fold.

After turn checks through I think peoples ranges are pretty capped and I can get quite a lot of folds, think it is especially unlikely that MP has any good hands here and neither player is going to have that many 8x. So I think betting here is fine.

When MP does call I reckon he has middle PP type hands, flush draws, some weaker Ax which he might not cb 3way. So I think with the turn being a blank it's going to be a reasonably good hands to continue bluffing with but with villain being unlikely to fold any of his Ax and I can't see him folding any hands like 99+ I think we would be better off shutting down on the river.

fold pre
check-decide turn
river is borderline ok as played given that you don't beat J9s if it checks through. He's calling TT-KK and any weak ace obviously so meh, I think it's better not to even bother trying to steal this pot

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

After turn checks through I think peoples ranges are pretty capped

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guess you mean flop here? disagree, mp can have very strong hands and be checking to induce a bet from cutoff for sure.

What's MP's cbet %?

I think the lower it is, the more Ax the has and the less fold equity you have.

If he has a high cbet, I'd imagine he mostly has AAA, and QQ-KK type stuff, so you could get folds an appropriate amount of time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

What's MP's cbet %?

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2/3 so 66.66%

Pros and cons of over-betting river?

Meh I'm not folding pre. I think it's close and if we have confidence in our post flop skill relative to villains, then calling seems fine.

Flop, obv c/f, turn I'd be tempted to stab at this sometimes simply because we picked up equity and we have lots of Ax and some 8x in our range, but I'm pretty much always giving up when called and river bricks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Pros and cons of over-betting river?

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Pros I can be like zomg I'm awesome at poker I overbet.

Cons villains snaps me with all the same hands and I lose more.

I'm probably folding pre-flop OOP here, though probably call if we're on the button. This is kind of close and the relatively higher rake of 5nl is going to really kill us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ImSavy

Pros I can be like zomg I'm awesome at poker I overbet.

Cons villains snaps me with all the same hands and I lose more.

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So great spot to overbet a bunch of combos for value in the future then if you believe villain never folds e.g. T8s/98s/87s/86s/AQ/AJ/A8s/22/44/88.

I still think you'll get a bunch of better stuff to fold though the first time you overbet, which you won't with <PSB. You're probably going to want to overbet bluff a few combos until people adjust (unless they are complete stations), and if we get called off with 7 high, we can then use that to our advantage later.