Originally Posted by
griffey24
Hand 1 - i mean you have the second nuts so it's not horrible. I do agree though that given this particular board, and the spades that the board blocks and that you block, the only other flushes he can now have that we beat are Q7ss (unlikely UTG), 67ss, 56ss, 45ss. So yah it's closer than my first instinct, but I still don't think ppl can find a fold with KKK/AAA here so I'd probably still jam.
Errr...?! ;)
My thinking at the time was that:
We are crushed by A2ss-A5ss, AQss and 67ss = 6 combos
Villain may call a jam with AA/KK = 4 combos
Villain may call a jam with QJ = 12 combos
Villain would most likely call with 56ss = 1 combo, but I don't think this guy's stats suggested he would open quite that wide
I kind of discounted AA/KK/QJ however based on his timing and sizing. It was so quick and large on a card that I'm likely to be smashing that it suggested there was no decision to be made, whereas I'd expect at least a pause with the 16 combos we beat. If we said that maybe he does this with half of those 16 combos then that makes this a call. Obviously we can jam it in for thin-ish value if we're confident that he calls it off with all combos of AA/KK/QJ.
Hand 2 - You aren't getting any folds on this flop. So many hands are coordinated with GS/OESD etc. Firing one seems ok I suppose, but you gotta be done with it after that. If you're bluffing on this board with this hand, you're going to end up with WAYY too many bluffs here.
I think I make the classic mistake that many do in that if I'm 3betting as a bluff, I don't always need to bet and bluff my way through every time. I mean I wouldn't on certain wet flops that smash a tight calling range (e.g. KQJtt) but I didn't think this one through too well at all.
Hand 3 - I would just bet bet bet, but after you c/c I like the line.
Ah, okay, maybe this wasn't so bad after all and the Q is just a horrible card for me. I do think the river is marginal given sizing, but I shouldn't go into c/c mode to induce spew I suppose unless I'm willing to stack top two here.
Hand 4 - This is one of those hands that convinced me a long time ago that you can just fold a ton of 3b and then 4b when you have it and ppl will still pay you off because they think "he must be fed up finally". That being said I think TT is fine as a 3b/5b hand overall. If you were jamming a low pair cause he must be sick of you, then I'd say you're reaching too far.
I think this is probably the least bad, but probably a little bit reckless against this particular villain. Is TT a standard stack-off bvb in higher games?
Hand 5 - Haha see above. Reaching too far in this hand. If they fold once and 4b you the next time, I think that could be a bluff and they are taking a quick stand. If they fold 3 times ina row or 4, and 4b you, they are probably just waiting for something.
Ha, too true. I like the numbers you provide below too - simple enough but insightful.
What is your 3b %?
Not huge by any means at 6%-8% (increasingly 8% lately). I'm around 10%-12% resteals, 15% btn vs co and less than 3% in other spots