[50NL] AKo...3bet pot. Turn decision and villain's range

Villain is 38/29 over 24 hands.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $57.07
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00
CO: $51.51
BTN: $50.00

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K:spade: A:diamond:

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.25, fold, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) K:heart: T:spade: 9:spade:
Hero bets $6.75, UTG calls $6.75

Turn: ($24.50, 2 players) 2:spade:
Hero ???

Alright, so I'm not really sure what to do on this turn. If I bet, I think am committed to calling off a jam and I don't really want to give up control of the pot by checking either and possibly giving a free card.

If we assume villain gets to the turn with;

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: KhTs9s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 40.71% 38.30% 2.41% { JJ-99, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KcQc, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QsJs, KdTd, KhTh, KcTc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, KdQs, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQs }
SB 59.29% 56.89% 2.41% { AdKs }

That's 42 combos. He prob jams with;

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: KhTs9s2s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 55.00% 50.91% 4.09% { TT-99, AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc }
SB 45.00% 40.91% 4.09% { AdKs }

Which is 21 combos. If we assume villain doesn't just flat again on turn, which is unlikely given remaining stack sizes and board texture, he is folding the other 21 combos.

Thoughts on ranges and next course of action?

I'd c/c flop and c/decide turn. We are in a tough spot no matter river and we just cant b/f. Though i think he'd raise flop w/ most combo draws and sets given board texture. Pretty awkward spot vs unknown.
As played i prefer a c/decide since i will never fold if i bet.

I would bet smaller on flop. SPR remaining now are awkward to fire 3 barrels.

As played, I would probably c/c here and let him bluff AQ/AJ stuff and protect JJ/QQ without a spade if he chooses to bet those.

I'd b/c vs these stats even though it's a small sample.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I would bet smaller on flop. SPR remaining now are awkward to fire 3 barrels.

As played, I would probably c/c here and let him bluff AQ/AJ stuff and protect JJ/QQ without a spade if he chooses to bet those.

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Usually I would continue for ~1/2 pot, but that flop is pretty wet so I bet a little more.

how about shoving turn? seems weird he flats 2pair+ on that board. so we are pretty much facing a flush or a draw.
sounds bad?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

how about shoving turn? seems weird he flats 2pair+ on that board. so we are pretty much facing a flush or a draw.
sounds bad?

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Why do you think it's better than b/c? Because we won't be faced with a difficult river decision?

I'd check the flop. I don't see many positive outcomes from betting, and I think if he checks behind we'll be able to play our hand super hard on a lot of turns. And he will bet with a weaker range than he will call with. I guess you miss out on some protection/value vs a hand like JJ/QQ but QJ/TT/99 are almost as likely and you're drawing deadish to those.

On the turn, I think you've isolated his range to being incredibly strong by betting the flop and now there's no play but to check fold. The spade is a terrible card as you only have the second nut draw and he just made a ton of flushes to go along with his myriad two pairs and better. I think you will be surprised at how much complete fucking garbage you will have to add to his range in pokerstove to bring your equity past 40%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Why do you think it's better than b/c? Because we won't be faced with a difficult river decision?

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never folding if i bet. i cant. so i only have c/decide which was /is my first choice and shoving and yes i hate to be called and think about a river decision.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

I'd check the flop. I don't see many positive outcomes from betting, and I think if he checks behind we'll be able to play our hand super hard on a lot of turns. And he will bet with a weaker range than he will call with. I guess you miss out on some protection/value vs a hand like JJ/QQ but QJ/TT/99 are almost as likely and you're drawing deadish to those.

On the turn, I think you've isolated his range to being incredibly strong by betting the flop and now there's no play but to check fold. The spade is a terrible card as you only have the second nut draw and he just made a ton of flushes to go along with his myriad two pairs and better. I think you will be surprised at how much complete fucking garbage you will have to add to his range in pokerstove to bring your equity past 40%.

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this is what i'd normally do, yu knew how to put it down.
but i am concerned i'm again falling to nitt side.

c/f on this turn seems absurd to me.

What flushes are we putting villain on that won't raise the flop at least some percent of time?
AJss/AQss are the most likely FD's and are both combo draws that will conceivably raise flop a good percentage of the time.

If villain is showing up with things like A5s etc, then he's probably also calling JTs, KJ/KQ etc.

If I'm checking this turn it's with the intention of c/c, to protect against all the other times I'm c/f stuff like AJ/AQ.

I think c/f is a pretty cool play here, I didn't even consider it because villain is loose and I usually am as well. +1 for checking flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

then he's probably also calling JTs, KJ/KQ etc.

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Against which c/f turn should work pretty well, no?

I like c/c on the turn if he bets small and c/jam if he bets bigger. There is a chance he won't bet the river and just check behind and you have the second nut flush draw.

If he moves in on the river, I would c/f. C/c seems like a breakeven play at best.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Against which c/f turn should work pretty well, no?

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I guess.... if folding the best hand works well in poker? haha what, am I missing something?

You think he bets those hard?

I might check back KQ/KJ/QQ/JJ with a spade as villain, but probaby betting half pot or so without a spade.

I think that sounds a bit like shameless redlining like Renton once said.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

I think that sounds a bit like shameless redlining like Renton once said.

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haha i never heard that before, that's pretty great.

Is it? I don't know, I'd certainly feel pretty good IP having Kx or QQ or something if I was facing a check. Betting half pot would be a legit value bet there. Not red lining for the sake of red lining.

I think that it will be better if you bet again. With checking on the turn, you give him a free card and chance to make straight or set of something. For that reason I think that you have to bet here, and your bet might be about $15 or 1/2 pot like you said.

that's a pretty gross board for our hand, I think I check, if he bets I probably kick myself in the nuts and fold because TPTK with a backdoor on that wet of a flop is a slightly ahead-flipping or way behind hand. that was one of my biggest leaks, barreling board textures that don't really connect with my perceived range. I mean when you 3bet OOP, you like NEVER flop the nuts cuz your not 3betting QJ OOP you know what I mean? seems weak but fugg it. take my $5 3bet and choke on it while I devise a plan to get all your monies..:mischief: