Flopped bottom set in CO

Villains aggression frequency = 50% on flop/turn and river. I've seen him call IP with AKo prior to this and call 3b in position with AA,QQ,AKo. He's floated 3 times and then played turn draws aggressively. I've also seen him bet quite thinly on the river once but otherwise doesn't seem to bluff the river too much with a WTSD of 20%. It's unlikely hes turned a draw but not impossible. I'm either way ahead or way behind - best play?
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


BTN: 337.1 BB (VPIP: 25.39, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 9.29, Hands: 454)
SB: 99 BB
BB: 181.72 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 112.14 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 3.53, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 87)
MP: 245.52 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 21)
Hero (CO): 243.56 BB


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4:heart: 4:club:


UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 2.5 BB


Flop: (15.5 BB, 4 players) 7:heart: 4:spade: J:club:
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BTN calls 9 BB, fold, fold


Turn: (33.5 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets 20 BB, BTN raises to 56 BB, Hero..

those times he flatted QQ+, was he in a steal spot vs 3b from blinds?

it very well could be two pair. i doubt hes floating flop with T8, but possible. i could see J9s and 97s in his range, JTs and obv. 77 and 99.

so we give him 4 combos of T8s, 2 combos of J9s, 2 combos of 97s, 3 combos of JTs, and 6 combos of sets.

we have 43% vs that range.

turn is 36 to win 109.5 and 36(36+109.5) = 25%.

even if we add JJ and T8o we still have 31%.

this should be a fold if he ONLY takes this line with the nuts (T8 or bigger set) if you think his range is wider than T8s,JJ,99 and 77 then call.

one thing for sure, i would raise here. ever. i would prob. flat and eval. river.

Once was from blind position, the other two times from IP against EP raise, LP 3b.

Curious to know why you don't have JJ in your initial analysis? I personally would 3b JJ on the button, but I see plenty of people who see a flop and then start playing it when no overcards come (in fact have won some nice pots with KK/AA from guys who thought their jacks were good on a low flop).
A slow played top set is also commonly seen here

I had similar Eq calculations to you but didn't have T8s as often and JJ more.

So the play from here went on as:

Hero calls

River 7 clubs

Hero checks, BTN bets all in (~260BB)

Thoughts on his range now?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by renegaderob1

Curious to know why you don't have JJ in your initial analysis?

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because MP iso'd. hes fairly aggressive and BTN stats show some aggression too. I would expect JJ to be in his squeezing range since 2 of the 3 OOP players hes facing are 200+BBs deep.

OTR we have like 40%, kind of a gross river, especially for 178 BBs (our stack) with 323 eff. in the pot. we need to be good 35.5% to make the call. if we have 40% we should call but being this deep stats get skewed a bunch, he might ONLY take this like with nutty hands. which means were crushed a lot. I would super tank fold. then just walk away for 10 mins and do jumping jacks or something. lol its a pretty sick spot.

Yeh was not a fun spot to be in. I could only think that I was facing a bigger FH here, just can't see a straight doing that on a paired board.

I'd just let him have it.

His raise is so small, so we definitely can't fold yet.

Given stacks, obv can't 3b here, so I'd probably call and c/c most rivers (pending river and sizing). Given all the Jx I'd be betting here, I can't be folding this strong, that's for sure.