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This is the thread for part 4 of the NLHE Foundations Course.
In this lesson, we start to get into what everyone has been asking about: Putting opponents on ranges.
I've given you some homework that requires you to have a database/HUD program, and I've given you links to free 30-day trials for the two most popular database/HUD programs out there. Let's see your answers to my question here, and we can get some discussion going that will provide the foundation for your hand-reading skills.
Here's some bonus content that I didn't include in the main article because it goes off on a little bit of a tangent, but I thought you guys would find it interesting.
Bonus Content
When people do statistical analysis on player stats while trying to find bot-controlled accounts, they rarely look at individual stats. It's really hard to just look for everyone who played something like 15/13 in full-ring games or 21/17 in six-max or whatever. Instead, they compare sets of stats (like the comparisons I showed between VPIP/PFR, PFR/ATS, etc.) They're able to find a tremendous amount of information from comparing sets of stats compared to looking at individual numbers.
To give a cliff notes version of what's been done to find a lot of major NLHE botting rings, hundreds of accounts with thousands of hands each were analyzed based on certain ratios of specific stats. One particular ratio was always in the range of (for example) 5 to 30 for human players. However, four or five accounts stood out as having ratios in the range of 90 to 95. A closer look at these four or five accounts showed that all of their stats were otherwise virtually identical, and they all were found to be using the same computer program to play poker.
This shows that the pairing of certain stats and their respective ratios can be used as very effective indicators when analyzing data to find bot-like behavior.
This is one of the most important things to understand when you're learning about ranges.Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
It's far too easy to set the bar too high for yourself when you're getting started.
***
When you're done with your poker study, come over to the FTR commune and post your curiosities about nature and the world around you in my physics monkey thread.
Opponent 1
- VPIP: 18.2
- PFR: 13.0
- ATS: 36.3
- Fold Blind to Steal: 90
- 3-Bet Pre-flop: 3.91
- ATS Range: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A 5o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
Opponent 2
- VPIP: 18.9
- PFR: 8.45
- ATS: 16.7
- Fold Blind to Steal: 100
- 3-Bet Pre-flop: 3.7
- ATS Range: 22+,A6s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
I didn't have a great sample size for opponent 2. I will take another stab at it after a while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Great bit! I totally agree! When I first joined FTR, and started studying poker 5-6 years ago, I got sucked into this, and seriously struggled with ranges, lost ambition, and never went anywhere.
Thank you for all the work/instruction spoon! It's really appreciated!
Villain 1 (10k hands)
Vpip: 10
Pfr: 6
ATS: 13
Fold to steal: 87
3bet: 3.1
I think is steal range looks something like this:
http://i.gyazo.com/cc739acbfc263f21d2f157add7ef148b.png
When i ran the steal filter, i saw 98s, so that's why i ended up putting some SCs intead of some broadways or AXs type of hands.
Villain 2 (9.1k hands)
Vpip: 15
PFR: 12
ATS: 32
Fold to Steal: 75
3bet: 6
He is stealing most of the time with this range:
http://i.gyazo.com/d1ebe6ca1a7562926e097e885170711b.png
I don't use the ATS stat because positional aware players tend to steal a lot more from SB than to CO for example. So i use individual CO BU and SB stealing stats. At least when i have lots of hands.
Edit: Very interesting Bonus content!!!!!
Yeah this is something we might get around to later on either in this series or in a new series after this.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarinaD
I just downloaded the free version of holdem manager. I need to collect a good amount of hands before I make the excersice
You can import hands that you've already played btw.Quote:
Originally Posted by matiusaa
Thanks for info, how can I look for the hands in the hud?Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
I don't use ATS, I rather use it by postion: sb, btn and CO, so I will make the excersice for each position. And also, I didn't find villians with lots of hands, so I chose this one, I know there's lots of variance and even if you compare some stats they don't make too much sense with each other, for the purpose of the excersice I will take them as reliable.
opponent 1:
hands: 230
vpip: 6
pfr: 6
SBSteal: 25
BTNSteal: 33
COSteal: 5
3Bet: 3,5
BBfts: 92
SBfts: 89
His value range comes from the 6% vpip and pfr which looks something like this:
88+
KQs
AQo+
AJs+
Stealing range from CO: 5%, so I assume the villian isn't stealing from the CO, but only plays his value hands.
Stealing range from BTN: 33% which looks like this: 22+,A2o+,A2s+,K9o+,K8s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T8s+,45 s-89s.
So his real stealing range would be the stealing range substracting his value range, So I expect his real stealing range from the button to be the following: 22-77,A2o-AJo,A2s-ATs,K9o+,K8s-KJs, QTo+,Q9s+,JTo,J9s+,T8s+,45s-89s
Stealing range from SB: 25% which looks like this: 22+, A6o+, A2s+, K9o+,K8s+, QJo, Q9s+, J9s+, 56s-9Ts
So again, I substract the range he plays for value and I get: 22-77, A6o-AJo, A2s-ATs, K9o+, K8s-KJs, QJo, Q9s+, J9s+, 56s-9Ts.
I'm not really sure about the specifics of how to import hands, etc., in today's generation of database programs, but there are a ton of tutorials online.
For some reason Poker Tracker 4 isn't recognizing Pokerstars or Fulltilt. Anyone else having this issue?
What version do you have? There might be an update available. The latest is apparently 4.13.5.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kashkar
I got the issue resolved, others were having the same issue and posted on the PokerTracker forum. I had to change the directory.Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Thanks!
Opponent 1 (281 Hands):
VPIP: 8
PFR: 7
3BET: 5
ATS: 12
So this opponent isn't stealing often and if then only from the sb (25) or BTN (18). I don't have a single hand in which he stole and it went to showdown.
(55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo)
Opponent 2 (599 Hands):
VPIP: 12
PFR: 10
3BET: 4
ATS: 31
This opponent is stealing alot, especially from the sb (50) and BTN (32). With every Ace, nearly ever King, some queens, many suit connectors, one/two gap connectors and of course every pocketpair.
(22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T5s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J8o+, T8o+)
With opponent 1 i would re shape that 25%. I'm pretty sure that someone who is stealing 25% is opening all pocket pairs instead of only 55+ for example.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pursu7it
I think that you put 25 in pokerstove or equilab and came up with that results.
I would suggest something like this:
http://i.gyazo.com/970579804bc9e2d1653fe4d417e47918.png
Yes I took the standard 25% because I didn't see a hand from any steal attempt.
But I think he is more likely to steal with A8o than like T8s oder 97s.
So with the pocket pairs I agree, with the two gap connectors I disagree.
Villain #1
VPIP: 30%
PFR: 26%
ATS: 39%
Fold blind to steal: 66%
3BPF: 16%
Villain is stealing super wide here. I think his range looks something like; 22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,A2o+ ,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o.
Villain #2
VPIP: 17%
PFR: 13%
ATS: 24%
Fold blind to steal: 85%
3BPF: 5%
Second villain is much tighter. Range might look something like; 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo.
I like the range you gave villain #1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
With villain #2 i would include some suited connectors instead of so many Ax offsuit.
Thanks, I find it much more difficult to put loose villains on ranges.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarinaD
I agree about SCs. Usually, most villains will raise with any Ax on BU but I think you're right in that he raises hands like T9s and 98s as well.
Putting loose Villains on ranges is more difficult because of the size of the ranges and the flexibility of what could be in those ranges. However, the larger the range, the more of a reasonable margin of error you can have as well since every individual hand you miss (or put in his range when it's not really there) is a smaller percentage of the whole range.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
Villain
26/22, ATS 60%. FT3B after stealing - 42%.
60% Range: 22+(78), A2s+(48), K2s+(44), Q2s+(40), J2s+(36), T7s+(12),
97s+(8), 86s+(8), 75s+(8), 64s+(8), 53s+(8), 43s(4), A2o+(192), K3o+(160),
Q3o+(144), J7o+(64), T7o+(48), 97o+(32), 87o(16).
Combos = 958
FT3B% 42% - J2-J7s(24), Q2s-Q7s(24), K2s-K7s(24), T7s(4), 86s(4), 75s(4),
64s(4), 53s+(8), 43s(4), K3o-K9o(112), Q3o-Q8o(96), J7o-J8o(32), T7o-T8o(32)
97o(16), 87o(16).
404/958 = 42%.
Continuing with; 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s,
A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o.
What sort of range do we think we should be a) calling with, b) 3betting for value and c) 3betting as a bluff?
Actually, is *c* even an option? I mean, we probably just want to 3bet for value against this guy, right?
Opponent 1:
VIPIP/PFR: 25/21 ATS: 37, Fold to Steal :81 3bet : 7,9%( 1k8 hand)
I think he is steal most of the time on BU and Sb around 40% (he steal on Co 28%)and his range steal like this:
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o
Opponent 2:26/12 ATS:22 (CO: 16. BTN:33 SB:16 3bet:6,7%) over 2k7 hand
seem he steal tight range CO like SB with range like this:22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KQo
his range steal on BU like this :22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o
With him folding to 3-bets such a small portion of the time, you need to figure out what he's 4-betting and calling with as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
Not necessarily related to this lesson, but notice that the first player here is much more aggressive while the second player is more passive based just on the stats that you've told me.Quote:
Originally Posted by othd13
Hmm, OK. I don't think I have enough hands to estimate those ranges so what would you do from here?Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Do the best you can between the hands you do have and the guy's stats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
so my first villian i perceive to be very tight
VPIP: 17
PFR: 11
3-bet: 3.7
ATS: 28
Fold to Steal: 96
equilab tells me they are raising with 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo
and stealing with 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+
my second villain is loose passive
VPIP: 38
PFR: 2
3-bet: 0.7
ATS: 4
Fold to Steal: 64
they are raising with TT+!
stealing with 99+AQs+ AKo
so hes not actually stealing at all, ever :)
3rd guy i perceive to be just a regular TAG kinda guy i guess
VPIP: 25
PFR: 23
3-bet: 7.6
ATS: 42
Fold to Steal: 80
so hes raising 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo
ans stealing with 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+
cant find anybody who i would consider a LAG in my database - can someone help me out?
also for my first villain (28% steal) equilab says they're stealing with more suited aces, presumably because of blockers. is it more likely though that a tight player would have more pairs than aces?
When you're looking at how much you think they're raising with, you need to realize that they are not raising with the same hands from all positions (which is part of the point of this exercise). This means you can't put them on a "raising range" based on how often they raise pre-flop. The stealing range estimate is a little different because it's talking about open raises from specific positions.
fair enough. so for the numbers that i was using as a "raising range" - this should be used as basically the widest they go? like assume its their button range and then shorten it by position?
Okay let me break this down for you real quick in a way that will hopefully make sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by siriusisness
Your attempt to steal stat (ATS) is the percentage of the time a player will open raise from the cutoff, button and small blind combined.
Your pre-flop raise stat (PFR) is the percentage of the time a player will raise when given the opportunity to pre-flop regardless of position, previous action, etc. This includes open-raising, raising after limpers, 3-betting, 4-betting, 5-betting, etc.
What you'll normally see is a player who has an ATS that's a bit higher than their PFR. For example, in a six-max game you might see a player who has a VPIP of 22, a PFR of 18 and an ATS of 35. The reason for this is that they are raising before the flop more often when there are fewer players left in the hand.
Hey Spoon, I play on a site not compatible with either hud. So I am not able to data mine for this exercise. What options might I have until I build a decent amount of hands on another site?
My suggestion is to start with the raw data (hands and stats) that someone else posted on this thread and do your own analysis. I hope that helps!Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambam77
Villain is 19/14 over 1915 hands with ATS = 27%.
We've seen him steal with A8s, A6, 66, AK, JTo and T9o. I find this range problematic. He seems to open any two 9+. If that's the case (and only steals with 66+, he can't be stealing with any Ace. A range that is approximately 27% would be:
A2s+, A6+, 66+ and any two 9+.
He apparently thinks that high card power is important (it is), but then why not steal with all his Aces? Also, he doesn't seem to be stealing with low pp's. Assuming he steals with all of his Aces, we could tweak the above range:
Any Ace, any two suited 9+, KT+, and T9+.
He folds steal attempts to 3bets 56%. So his continuing range after a 3bet (given his preference for high cards over suited-ness) might be:
99+, A8s+, AT+, T9s+, KJ+, KTs.
one thing that came to me while doing this is the word "stealing", if he has AA on the button and raises unopened is that still termed stealing the blinds or a value raise and for this exercise does that even matter.
Villain 1
VPIP 19 PFR 13 ATS 27 FTS 75 3BET 2.5
Having played with this player alot he is generally tight but can mix it up with loose hands at times, raising from the button from known hands as wide as J4s
Range from known hands at showdown:
22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, J4s, T8s+, T4s, 97s+ 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A5o+, KTo+, QJo, T8o,
Seems to like suited hands with one high card and cards with some connectivity suited connectors and gaped connectors.
Villain 2
VPIP 15 PFR 11 ATS 40 FST 79 3BET 4.2
Villain from known hands at showdown showed a lot of Ax hands, one high card suited hands and hands with connectivity suited connectors and suited gaped conectors.
Range of :
22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q7s+, J8s+, J3s, T9s, 98s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo,
with a high ATS of 40 i feel i have left out alot of this players range here but i struggled to think as there was not more known hands at showdown,
I understand what you're getting at, but for our purposes, stealing just means that someone has open raised from the cutoff, button or small blind. This means that everyone folded to them in one of these three positions, and they decided to open raise. That's where you'll get the steal percentage in stats for database programs like PokerTracker and Hold'em Manager.Quote:
Originally Posted by doddly10
cool thanks
I play only 6max cash, so all stats are for 6max players.
First villain I have about 2800 hands on. His basic stats are 17/14/7 with a 24% BTN steal. The relatively low btn steal suggests a somewhat nitty player who is not particularly positionally aware, and looking at his stats by position backs that up (he's opening about 15% from all positions with little variation).
I've seen him take 85 hands to showdown, of which he W$SD 57% of the time. Immediately obvious tendencies seen in hands I've seen him showdown are that he plays big hands fast.
When I've seen him show down after opening the BTN, it's been with TT, J9o, T7s and AQo. J9o is somewhat out of place with only a 25% BTN steal, but the rest of those hands seem to fit - He's likely to be opening the button with premiums, suited aces, medium to small pairs and suited broadways plus some stronger SCs.
Overall he seems to play tight and straightforward.
Second villain I have around 1300 hands on. His basic stats are 20/16/7. He has attempted to steal 49% from the BTN.
I've seen him show down 37 times, with a W$SD of 59%.
Notable hands I've seen a showdown from him are one where he flatted IP with KJs, stabbed at T77r when it was checked to him, then bet around 2/3 pot on a K turn and called a big overbet jam. I also saw him get all-in over 3 streets when opening AJs in the HJ, on an ace high board, suggesting he might overplay TPGK.
I've seen him call a 3bet OOP after opening 33 in the CO, then C/R a flopped set. I've seen him call a 3bet OOP with QJs also.
I've seen him C/R a paired two-tone flop with bare overcards no draw.
I've seen him play two flushdraws passively and seen a river stab when one bricked.
I've only seen one hand shown down after he opened the BTN (A7o). His BTN stealing range is probably something around any ace, any pair, any suited K/Q, the better suited Jacks, most suited connectors and one gappers plus unsuited broadways and some higher unsuited connectors.
Overall I'd say he is aggressive but overplays medium value hands and has a tendency to bluff in bad spots. He also seems to call too many 3bets.
Player 1 with 21000 Hands
VPIP / PFR / ATS / FBtS / 3bet PF
15 / 10 / 18 / 82 / 1,6
Stealing Range: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,43s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo = 22%
Fits perfectly to ATS from Button = 22%
Player 2 with 20000 Hands
23 / 17 / 26 / 70 / 6,6
Stealing Range: 22+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s, A5o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo = 28%
Fits perfectly to ATS from Button = 28 %
I want to reiterate something I've posted in other threads (and possibly this one) for this series:
The point of doing this analysis (which you should do over and over for other opponents in your own time) is to start seeing patterns with how different types of players play. This will put you in a position to understand what some basic stats say about a player's likely tendencies and likely ranges in fairly complicated situations.