10NL - River - hand check?

Hi guys,

Some hand I wanted a check.
Villain is one of the best players at my level. Might see me at weak/tight or maybe not, really don't know.

Plugging the hand ranges in equilab here we go:

Vilains ranges:

Pre-flop:

88+,AK,AQ,Ats+,98s,T9s,QJs,KQs,87s,76s

FLOP:

88+,AK,AhQh,AdQd,Ats,AhJh,AdJd,9h8h,9d8d,Td9d,JdTd ,QhJh,QdJd,KdQd,KhQh,8h7h,7h6h,8d7d,7d6d,AhQc,AhQd ,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs We have 54% equity on the FLOP

TURN:
99+,AK,AhQh,AdQd,AdTd,AhJh,AdJd,9h8h,9d8d,QhJh,QdJ d,KdQd,KhQh,8h7h,7h6h,8d7d,7d6d,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AhJ c,AhJd,AhJs
We have 52% equity on the TURN

RIVER:

AA,TT,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,QdJd,AdTd,JdTd,Td9d,7d6d ,AhQd,AhQs,AhQc,AhQh

I counted he pushes AA on river but not KK. I counted only AhQx as bluffs (which count for 4 hands) and considered he won't bluff with AhJx. All the other hands are not bluffs = 22.
Equilab gives me an equity of 21% vs this range. With pot odds we need 26% equity. If villain doesn't push RIVER with AA (which I think it's quite likely that he would value bet or check OPP) we have a 30% equity.

What do you think of these ranges?
I was wondering whether a bomb on TURN would not have been better with all the flush draws + straight draw out there?
However, villain is 3betting from SB vs UTG so his range should be quite stronger.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/
saw flop | saw showdown
Button ($25.07)
MP ($7.09)
CO ($11.08)
SB ($13.78)
BB ($11)
UTG ($10)
Preflop:
UTG raises $0.25, 3 folds, SB raises $0.95, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.10) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30
Turn: ($4.70) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, UTG calls $2.50
River: ($9.70) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $6.14, UTG ????

We are Hero/UTG with JdJs.

Interesting and common spot. Is hero holding TT-QQ? I'll assume QQ as it's probably the top of our range.

My standard assumption is that villain won't be light here, beyond maybe some suited wheel aces [JJ+, AK, A2s-A5s], maybe some suited connectors. Player in the bb is maybe slightly relevant too - if it's an habitual squeezer, that may change things.

If we go as wide as villain barrelling off all busted heart and diamond draws in his range on the river and QQ+, we wouldn't have the equity to call. If he has JJ in his range, that makes a big difference. But honestly, I just don't see us ever being good here.

We are UTG/hero with JJ.
I'd give more 7-8% 3bet range (including blufs like 87s or 76s as villain 3bets quite a bit) for villain.
Will villain push the river with QQ+?

Without your read that he sees you as weak/tight, I'd probably fold turn. With that read it's a call(turn).

By the river and considering that read again, it makes a lot of sense that he wouldn't push AA, and that he would bluff enough to make this a close call.