Live NLHE Bottom Set 260BB Deep vs Nit

Effective stacks $1300, 8 handed, 3/5 NLHE

Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise. Villain is very stoic and quiet, I have an inkling he does not tilt, but it is hard to say for certain.

My image is TAG and I have not shown down any bluffs or anything crazy. I have been a bit card dead, so people may think I am tighter than I actually am.

Villain ($1700) opens from UTG+1 to $25. This is bigger than his late position raises which are usually to $15 if there are no limpers. 2 callers from mid positions and Hero ($1200) completes with 5h5c.

Flop ($97) Qc7d5d
Hero Checks, Villain bets $45, 2 Folds, Hero raises to $150, Villain calls

Turn ($397) As
Hero bets $260, Villain calls

River ($917) 9c
Hero with ~$900 behind...

At this point in my mind his range is really narrow. AQ, AdKd, AA, QQ (let me know if you disagree). The problem facing me is I think he folds AdKd to a shove (and maybe folds to turn bet) and maybe AQ as well. If I bet 1/2 pot I may get value from those hands but will have to call a shove. He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50% (5 calling combos * 900 = $4,500), 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack (6*-900= -$5,400). It almost seems like there is not a good play on the river.

What is your river line and should I have played any of the earlier streets differently?

This is interesting. What is your image? I feel like this is important. Are you calling the likes of A3s pre to his raise? Are you raising a flush draw on the flop? Does villain know it?

I think if we have flush draws as well as sets in our range, villain will play his QQ more aggressively on flop, and his AA on turn. Our range is strong, and he crushes it. I feel for him to flat call AA on turn, he needs to be blocking nut flush draw with the Ad, which narrows his range further.

I think we're up against AKdd or AAd. Problem here is AKdd is one combo, he's twice as likely to have AAd. And he might not even call AKdd to a river bet. I suppose he can have KK and called the turn hoping we raised something like KQ on flop and that river will check through, but he's likely folding KK to a river bet.

I feel like c/f is too weak a line to take here, I feel like only QQ/AA makes river bets so c/c is probably bad, and the value on river is thin, which makes b/f awkward. Further, is b/f even an option considering pot size and stacks?

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It almost seems like there is not a good play on the river.

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I agree. I think I'd probably c/c as a default, but I'd really hate to see him shove as his river bet.

I think the turn bet is perhaps a bit thin, considering his range is so strong. By b/c'ing flop, he took out most of the AK in his range.

We can c/c to showdown from turn I think, he can assume AK/KK is good if we slow down on an A turn.

I suppose AQ could be in his range, and if that's so it shifts our equity considerably. If we think he's opening AQ in EP after playing 7 hands in 3 hours, then we can bet turn and b/c river, no problem.

Flop I think is fine.

Turn bet is far too large & if we do that then river we should bet/fold some smallish amount but we'd have way more behind. As played I think we can still bet like $200 and fold. The very top of our range is so far ahead that we never really have anything we want to bet huge with on this river anyway so it makes sense imo.

In fact we never have AA here I imagine and maybe even rarely QQ (though I think that's a mistake) so maybe that doesn't work.

Updated original post with what I perceive my image to be to the table.

So I'm new here because I'm trying to learn more about online poker, but I do play alot live. and this thread really illustrates the differences between the two games. So here's a take on the hand from someone who is a frequent (10+ hours per week) live player.

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Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise

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Ok, so we have a TAG. He plays good hands, bets when checked to, and folds when raised. TAG. But he's a bad TAG because 7 hands in 3 hours is not enough 'AG'. Conclusion: typical live rec/reg grinder whose actions are mostly dictated by his own cards and how they connect with the board. The players behind him, just called in position. Conclusion: passive, probably playing 'fit or fold'.

So for those reasons, I raise pre-flop. It really doesn't matter what our cards are since we can generate +EV simply by A) taking it down pre-flop, or B) taking it down with a c-bet against a narrowed field of fit or fold players on the flop. The fact that we have a pocket pair is merely insurance equity. At this point, our plan for the hand should not include a showdown.

On the flop.....

Lead out. People don't bluff or semi-bluff nearly as much as they do online. They are total showdown monkeys.

The PFR isn't going to cbet bluff into three people, two of which are in position. And the two players in position have already shown their intention to take a passive line. In my experience with live players, you'll see Qx and flush draws get checked here alot. We can't let that happen. It's too much missed value.

As played, it appears that the PFR has something, which was a lucky break for us. As played, raising is correct, but we're a little late to the party at this point.

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I think the turn bet is perhaps a bit thin, considering his range is so strong.

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Disagree. There are a lot of variables in his range that could swing us from a 60/40 favorite to a 60/40 dog. I guess that averages out to about 50/50. So betting and not betting are probably both neutral in a one-street vaccuum. However, if we bet now, and increase the size of the pot, our river bet will obviously be bigger. If we have the best hand, and are betting for value at the end, we obviously want more value. We set that up by betting now.

Also, if we do have an equity advantage, it's probably because V has flush draws in his range like AJdd, which may not pay off a big river bet at all. So we need to get our money now.

It's interesting if we get raised here, but since we didn't, I won't speculate.

On the river...

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He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50% (5 calling combos * 900 = $4,500), 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack (6*-900= -$5,400).

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That's not quite how the math works. If you're saying he has 16 possible hands, 6 that beat you, and 10 that lose (but only 5 will call), then the math looks like this... (for simplicity, I'm rounding the size of the existing pot to 900)

You bet, he calls, you lose....
6/16 x -900 = -337.50
You bet, he calls, you win
5/16 x 1800 = 562.50
You bet, he folds, you win
5/16 x 900 = 281.25

Total +EV = 506.25. Not bad, but I really think we're banking on too many calls from worse here.

What if we bet less than a shove....like $350, and he calls with all 10 worse hands?

You bet, he calls, you lose
6/16 x -350 = -131.25
You bet, he calls, you win
10/16 x 1250 = 781.25

Total +EV = $650. Even more than the shove.

And yes, you can bet/fold on the river. You can bet $899 and still correctly fold to the shove. There is no way in the world that you ever get bluff raised in a live game here. And I think it's wildly unlikely that you see a TAG over play a one or two pair hand. 99.9% of live grinders will just call here with any non-nut hand. If you get raised, he's got the goods. So odds be damned in that spot, just fold.

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Originally Posted by BananaStand

So I'm new here because I'm trying to learn more about online poker, but I do play alot live....

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Great stuff man, thanks for the analysis.