BvB turn play

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 102.64 BB
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 17.72, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 263)
UTG: 111.04 BB (VPIP: 21.83, PFR: 18.02, 3Bet Preflop: 7.25, Hands: 1,382)
CO: 164.8 BB (VPIP: 22.69, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 6.89, Hands: 926)
BTN: 48.92 BB (VPIP: 23.66, PFR: 20.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 134)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :9h: :as:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) :3d: :ts: :3s:
Hero bets 3.8 BB, BB calls 3.8 BB

Turn: (13.6 BB, 2 players) :8s:
Hero bets 8.6 BB, BB raises to 25.8 BB, Hero ??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by acg123

Turn: (13.6 BB, 2 players) :8s:
Hero bets 8.6 BB, BB raises to 25.8 BB, Hero ??

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1) Assigns a range to Villain that is consistent with Villain's actions on every decision point up to now.

This is a really easy fold against like everyone.

Why do you want to do anything but fold?

fold. you have the card he's most likely bluffing with. the calling range you beat when you hit your flush otr is probably not enough for value.

Good (but high variance) spot for villain to bluff. Not that he is.

we have to call 17.2 to win 48. so bet/(bet+pot) = 26.38 equity needed.

I was thinking OTT hands like KT,QT,JT,T9 with a spade would raise, given his 3b stat he would 3b TT+,AQs+,AQo+ his small PPs(22-99) would prob flat OTT. so OTT I expect his range to be TP, set ( A3s,34s) , maybe T8.

equilab=


Board: 3dTs3s8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 74.51% 74.51% 0.00% { A3s, T8s, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, T8o, KsTd, KsTh, KsTc, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, Td9s, Th9s, Tc9s }
MP3 25.49% 25.49% 0.00% { As9h }

TT, 88, 33 may flat. But raising is still possible. We can't discount that without actual reads. In fact, I would argue that raising full houses/quads is good to maximize value vs made flushes.

Pot odds? No.
Implied odds? No.
Reverse implied odds? Yes.

This is a ludicrously easy fold.

This is either a fold or a jam. Definitely not a call OOP.

Far closer to a fold than a jam imo. I supppose if someone was very spashy and you had reads that he likes making moves a ton , then I could see a jam in some scenarios.