Originally Posted by
BorisTheSpider
Villain has opened every button for 3 orbits:
SB: $10.24 (102.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $17.73 (177.3 bb)
CO: $7.60 (76 bb)
BTN: $11.62 (116.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: 3:heart:
CO folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15
His range is very wide, we'll just say the top 50% of hands as an estimate.
Flop: ($0.55) 4:club: 2:spade: 7:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
He has cbet both of the 2 times I've seen him see a flop, the sample is too small to be particularly useful, but with the somewhat loose preflop stats, I'll give him a wide range of made hands, semibluffs and air, let's go with:
22+,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s ,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
Turn: ($1.15) 6:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
When he checks behind, I'll eliminate from his range hands he'd want 3 streets of value for like overpairs and sets, plus decent semibluffing hands like open ended straight draws. That leaves him with marginal top pair hands, smaller pairs and air like bare overcards.
33,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
River: ($1.15) J:club: (2 players)
The river comes an overcard that doesn't improve any drawing hands. Of his range above, I think he'll fold bare overcards and anything else weaker than a pair of 7s, so his calling or raising range is:
AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,AJo,A7 o,KJo,QJo,JTo
and his folding range is:
33,AQs+,ATs-A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs,KTs,QTs,AQo+,ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo
That's 214 combos out of 322, or 66% or 2/3. That's a really big percentage - in a vacuum, I could bet twice the pot, risking 2 units to win 3, which would require him to fold 2/3 of the time. It's not necessary to bet anywhere near that much, and I can make a highly profitable much smaller bluff of half the pot:
Hero bets $0.60