Ong's December blog.

I'm going to try and go pro. I'll post regular BR updates here so you guys can either high five my success or mock my failure.

Target is £1000 per month. December should give me a good idea if that's a reasonable expectation.

December 1st - today my BR started at around £450 and closed at £517. I've probably played in the region of 5 hours of poker. Better success in the late evening, I assume people were drunk but chances are good that these people are just fucking stupid.

Yesterday I relieved some dude of his £90 stack in three hands over the course of an hour. He was raising nearly everything, and calling any size raises with anything he raised or limped. I switched seats to Jesus seat him, and sat patiently waiting for hands I'm willing to play for stacks. The bingo hand he limps, I 3b shove nearly 100bb with AK spades, folds to dickhead, he calls Q5 spades. Flops misses both, turn ace and he's dead. He previously doubled me to this size stack by calling 74s vs my JJ. The first one was a looser 20bb shove with A7s, can't remember what he had but it certainly justified my shove. He got to £90 by getting ludicrously lucky against everyone else.

Before anyone asks, I'm not telling people where I'm playing. I'm quite happy to be left alone with the fish, tyvm. Find your own cash cow!

Today I woke up, rolled a joint, put the Dead Kennedys on loud, and shouted the lyrics to California Uber Alles, before having some tea and toast. I'm ready for the day now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoA_zY6tqQw

A few starter questions.

1. Why are you writing a blog on a site with almost zero readership?

2. Why is your "pro" target well below minimum wage for a 9-5 job?

3. What was the thought process behind deciding a bankroll of £450 (which should equate to 10NL cash or £8 SnGs at the volumes you must intend to play) is even slightly reasonable for going "pro"?

Sorry, one more question.

Making two assumptions here:
1. You play 10NL, which is roughly correct (if a little aggressive if going "pro") for your bankroll
2. You run at 3 BB/100, a reasonably decent long term winrate for an above average player at 10NL

Based on the above, if you 24 table or alternatively 4-table zoom, you make £4.32 per hour.

For £1,000 per month, you'll need to put in 231 hours in the month, which is almost 60 hour weeks. Why is it more appealing to you to work 60 hour weeks for a below minimum wage salary, than take literally any job and earn more in less time?

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1. Why are you writing a blog on a site with almost zero readership?

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So I can keep track of my progress, or lack of. And it's not quite zero readership. I might or might not get some conversation in here from the few regs we have left, but ultimately I just want somewhere to keep notes without talking poker in the commune.

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2. Why is your "pro" target well below minimum wage for a 9-5 job?

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It's not. I'm unskilled, best I can hope to earn is something like £16k a year, and after tax that's in the same ball park as £1k a month tax free. It helps that I'm in the UK and don't have to pay tax on my cash outs. Also, I hate working for other people. I want to be self reliant and enjoy my life.

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3. What was the thought process behind deciding a bankroll of £450 (which should equate to 10NL cash or £8 SnGs at the volumes you must intend to play) is even slightly reasonable for going "pro"?

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First of all, your assumption of 10nl is wrong. I'm playing 50nl 10bb short stack games. You would be correct to assume that I am strictly speaking insufficiently bankrolled for the stakes, but here's my thought process... A week ago, I had £50 in my account. I was watching these games that I now play, seeing how bad they were, and knew I could make money. So I thought, what's £50? If I lose it, it's not going to be the difference between eating and not. But, if I run at least average to begin with, I should do ok. So over the next four days, I won £400. Now I understand that 4 days of poker is not enough to "go pro", hence me using the word "try". But I also strongly believe that what makes or breaks my success is basically dodging particularly bad luck for the first few months as I build my bankroll.

I've seen enough at my stakes to know I can make money, and I can afford to lose what I have. So December I intend to grind it out and at the end of the month, decide if I really can go pro.

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2. You run at 3 BB/100, a reasonably decent long term winrate for an above average player at 10NL

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I have no idea what my bb winrate is per 100 hands, but it's a lot more than 3bb per 100 hands.
I'm playing anything between 1 and 4 tables. I've played probably five hours of poker a day for five days to earn around £500, so let's break that down. That works out of £20 an hour, that's 40bb.

So based on these figures, you can see why I'm going for it. The worst case scenario is I go bust, which doesn't change my life for the worse.

My BR plan is something like this...
£500 minimum
At the end of January, cash out 75% of anything over £500.
End of Feb, cash out 75% of anything over £600.
Repeat every month (£700, then £800 etc) until BR = £1500.
Now cash out 100% of anything over £1500.

The minimum I can survive off is £600 a month, and that's tight. The most I need is £1000, anything above that is a luxury and I'll probably build my roll faster rather than cash out more. I'll also be running an ebay business to top up my income. I'll also keep doing my one day a week at Oxfam, as it will help me if I go bust and need a job.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

So I can keep track of my progress, or lack of. And it's not quite zero readership. I might or might not get some conversation in here from the few regs we have left, but ultimately I just want somewhere to keep notes without talking poker in the commune.

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Fair.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's not. I'm unskilled, best I can hope to earn is something like £16k a year, and after tax that's in the same ball park as £1k a month tax free. It helps that I'm in the UK and don't have to pay tax on my cash outs. Also, I hate working for other people. I want to be self reliant and enjoy my life.

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£16k = £1,200 per month after tax. And you work 80 hours less per month for it.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

First of all, your assumption of 10nl is wrong. I'm playing 50nl 10bb short stack games. You would be correct to assume that I am strictly speaking insufficiently bankrolled for the stakes, but here's my thought process... A week ago, I had £50 in my account. I was watching these games that I now play, seeing how bad they were, and knew I could make money. So I thought, what's £50? If I lose it, it's not going to be the difference between eating and not. But, if I run at least average to begin with, I should do ok. So over the next four days, I won £400. Now I understand that 4 days of poker is not enough to "go pro", hence me using the word "try". But I also strongly believe that what makes or breaks my success is basically dodging particularly bad luck for the first few months as I build my bankroll.

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On this basis, you are not "going pro" - you are taking quite a wild stab at something. Your risk of ruin is obviously extremely high shortstacking 50NL with £450 behind, which strangely you seem to realise. "Going pro" is to start a career in your chosen field.... this is not starting a career, it's practically a novelty challenge.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I have no idea what my bb winrate is per 100 hands, but it's a lot more than 3bb per 100 hands.
I'm playing anything between 1 and 4 tables. I've played probably five hours of poker a day for five days to earn around £500, so let's break that down. That works out of £20 an hour, that's 40bb.

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25 hours of 4 tabling means you've played about 6,000 hands (probably less since you mention you're not always 4 tabling). Sounds like you're running really well too, but doesn't need saying that this is not a sample size worth discussing anything about at all. As a long term venture, you can probably expect your winrate shortstacking 50NL to level out at about 1 BB/100 if you're a decent enough poker player (lower than my first post as both playing a harder game and shortstacking will vastly increase your variance and decrease your winrate).

I'm not being an arsehole for the sake of being an arsehole, I'm just trying to give some perspective. I think you're only using the term "going pro" because it sounds cool, and not because you actually are. You're taking a shot with a small bankroll in a high variance game to which you are adding extra variance by shortstacking. Anyone who knows anything about the maths behind poker will tell you that you are going to go bust.

Play within your bankroll limits, don't shortstack, get a job, and then maybe as you organically move up through the limits you could consider jacking the job in if it ever becomes justifiable to.

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£16k = £1,200 per month after tax. And you work 80 hours less per month for it.

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I'm not playing 120 hours of poker a week. I'm playing 30 ish.

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Your risk of ruin is obviously extremely high shortstacking 50NL with £450 behind, which strangely you seem to realise. "Going pro" is to start a career in your chosen field.... this is not starting a career, it's practically a novelty challenge.

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Just to be clear, everyone is shortstacking. The max BI is 10bb, which just encourages people to go nuts. And I did emphasise the word "try". I'll decide if I really am pro at the end of the month when I analyse my performance and winrate.

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Sounds like you're running really well too, but doesn't need saying that this is not a sample size worth discussing anything about at all

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I feel like I'm running average, but that's a feeling rather than based on any actual analysis. But yes, sample size is obviously ludicrously small. I can only change that by playing.

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As a long term venture, you can probably expect your winrate shortstacking 50NL to level out at about 1 BB/100

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I think you are underestimating just how badly people are playing.

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I'm not being an arsehole for the sake of being an arsehole,

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You're not being an arsehole.

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I think you're only using the term "going pro" because it sounds cool, and not because you actually are.

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I'm being honest with my intentions. I want to make a living playing poker, and I think it's possible. So I'm completely sincere that I intend to "go pro".

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You're taking a shot with a small bankroll in a high variance game to which you are adding extra variance by shortstacking.

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See above about shortstacking. It's not a ratholing tactic that I am employing against full stackers. That would be a terrible strategy for going pro, so I can totally understand why you're all "wtf is this guy thinking?".

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Play within your bankroll limits, don't shortstack, get a job, and then maybe as you organically move up through the limits you could consider jacking the job in if it ever becomes justifiable to.

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I fired up a fiver on this site three months ago. It took that long to grind to £50. How much longer can I keep playing that kind of poker for? I don't play it for fun.

This is it for me. If I can't win at these stakes, against these people, then all I can ever do is play poker for fun.

I don't want a job. I'm nearly 40 years old, I am not working for Amazon picking and packing orders until I die.

midlife crisis

To give you an idea how bad the players are, I've seen at least two people in my five days buy in for the minimum 3bb stack, then proceed to limp/fold vs a raise. I nearly choked on my tea the first time I saw it.

There are regs, and they have usually built up a £30+ stack before they leave. I take note of those who are apparently profitable, and play tighter against them than I do against the morons who are donating.

I think your assumed winrate of 3bb/100 would be about right if I were playing solely against regs. I'm totally reliant for my massive winrate on the relentless stream of recreational players who are burning £50 a session.

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Originally Posted by Savy

midlife crisis

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Yep.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm not playing 120 hours of poker a week. I'm playing 30 ish.

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Let's suppose you can crush the game you're playing at 5 BB/100, which the way you've described it I'm really not sure anyone can. Yes the standard sounds poor, but it sounds like it's a crapshoot by design which is really going to hinder the long term winrate of the best player in the world, no matter how you've been running for the last few days. 5 BB/100 in my mind is a fairly devastating winrate for the game as you've described it.

So, supposing you run at 5 BB/100 playing 4 tables for 30 hours a week (supposing each table plays at 60 hands per hour). Not taking into account variance in either direction (which is not realistic, because a moderate downswing will bust you), you would in the long run make an average of £720 per month at this stake. You could live in squalor on that I guess, but really the situation you are in is not viable to do full time - it just isn't.

EDIT: Got my sums wrong and have amended!

I don't know why you think these are some secret games it's either whatever stupid shit they've been doing on 888 or whatever it was for ages or similar. You are just running silly hot, the rake in those games was absolutely dreadful and even against absolute window lickers large winrates just aren't possible. It is also incredibly obvious there is no room to move up or get a higher hourly.

So you basically scrape a living with your massively overoptimistic predictions and as soon as anything bad happens you bust.

I don't know why you don't just play live for a living. Standard is lol and you don't really need a bankroll to start just shot take when you save up a couple of hundred quid.

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Originally Posted by Savy

the rake in those games was absolutely dreadful.

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This is also a really big factor. If it's the particular game/site I'm thinking of, the rake is higher than average.

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Yes the standard sounds poor, but it sounds like it's a crapshoot by design which is really going to hinder the long term winrate of the best player in the world, no matter how you've been running for the last few days.

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Let me see if I can help you understand why I think you're wrong.

I'm essentially rolling a dice over and over again, losing to a 1 and 2, and winning to a 3+. That's how good I am on average when stacks go in. Negative variance isn't fucking me anywhere near as much as it fucks the average villain. If I'm only winning 50% of the time, I'm running pretty bad while breaking even. If I'm actually losing money, I'm running like shit.

I should go through waves of running good, running average, running bad. When I run good, I'm absolutely crushing it. That's why I've won nearly £500 in five days. I'm not running that good, I'm losing a lot when I get it in good. Today so far I'm down to £483 while playing seemingly very well. So running like shit costs me £30, while running like a god earns me a lot more.

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You can't live on that and therefore the situation you are in is not viable to do full time - it just isn't.

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I can't live on £180, no, not even topped up with ebay. So if that truly does level out to my winrate, then I'm not going pro. Time will tell.

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Originally Posted by Savy

I don't know why you don't just play live for a living. Standard is lol and you don't really need a bankroll to start just shot take when you save up a couple of hundred quid.

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I live in the middle of butt fuck nowhere and I don't drive. I played once at Brighton while on holiday, crushed it in ev while walking out £100 down. I know I can win at casinos, but when I got my AA busted aipf vs KQo, I had to leave, because I wanted to insult the guy. I don't think I can handle tilt live.

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I don't know why you think these are some secret games

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I hope these games are widespread, really I do. But I haven't seen anything like it before, so forgive my reluctance to encourage fellow sharks to sit in with me.

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You are just running silly hot,

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I don't think so. I'm just not running really, really bad.

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even against absolute window lickers large winrates just aren't possible.

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Tell me this at the end of the month.

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So you basically scrape a living with your massively overoptimistic predictions and as soon as anything bad happens you bust.

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Maybe. A risk I'm willing to take.

OK, well it sounds like you're fairly set on it - good luck!

The reason I came back after a lengthy absence to post here is because I see so much of myself 10 years ago in this plan. I decided to "go pro", admittedly with much more conservative bankroll management, back in '08 when the online poker landscape was much more conducive to being able to do so. I absolutely underestimated what I was getting into, the downswings at any game when you play at the volume you need to in order to make a living wage are severe. Combine that with the fact that you're cashing out to pay yourself a salary every month, and it becomes incredibly hard to manage for even a short while without an incredibly robust bankroll and a mental toughness that 99% of people do not have.

Rake is 5%, I'm due £40 rakeback bonus tomorrow (weekly expectation at my volume), while I'm also possibly in the running for a monthly 10% rakeback bonus. That won't be insignificant.

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OK, well it sounds like you're fairly set on it - good luck!

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Yeah I mean unless someone can give me a better idea what to do with my £500 I currently have online, then I'm going for it.

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The reason I came back after a lengthy absence to post here is because I see so much of myself 10 years ago in this plan.

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I did suspect an element of this. I know I'm not the first to run short rolled at high stakes with big ambitions, and I also know that probably well over 90% of those who do take this risk lose it all.

This isn't the first time I've tried to go pro. Ten years ago, I was grinding $25nl with a $1k roll, and while I was proftable for a while, it was never a regular income and eventually my cash outs hurt my roll to the point of no return. What I'm experiencing right now is a different level altogether. I've earned in one week what I was earning in a month at my previous poker peak. That's twice as much as I need to go pro, so even if I am running ridiculously good, there's plenty of wiggle room.

I don't really have anything to lose, aside from what is currently a small mount of money that is not going to change my life for the better sat in my bank. So fuck it.

5% with no cap and basically every hand goes postflop so you always pay rake is really awful.

It's stupid and a waste of yourself but gl. I'd nit it up with real life expenses and paying yourself for a couple of months just to ease the pressure on finances as much as possible. I'd also look at using some of the money you do make to try and start up some other avenues of income.

Looking forward to some graphs/hands.

Sorry rake is capped at £1.80.

I do intend to reinvest my money if this goes well. I hope to expand my ebay activity, that will be much easier if I have regular cashouts from poker.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Sorry rake is capped at £1.80.

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Just because they say there is a cap doesn't mean it isn't essentially uncapped. 20bb at 5% is $0.50, not even close to touching the cap.

Well I'm beating the rake right now, so zero fucks given really. I get £160 back a month at least, that's without qualifying for the extra 10% monthly.

Tried out the 20nl version of the game you mentioned and every single player is a disaster. Highly likely you can beat the game for 10bb per table, per hour (and that's being conservative). Not a huge amount of tables running though.

If you get bored of these games and have the roll, you can likely beat mtts up to $11 for $15 hourly.

PS: will be obvious if I'm at your table from my screen name.

I see you. Yes you've found my secret site!

Can you see the waiting list? I'm #2

I can see you. Seriously, what are these people doing? I've seen some sitting with 3bb and limp folding.

bean crushing the 20nl tables already

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I can see you. Seriously, what are these people doing? I've seen some sitting with 3bb and limp folding.

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Now you see why I have such a hard on.

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If you get bored of these games and have the roll, you can likely beat mtts up to $11 for $15 hourly.

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I can definitely beat these stakes, not sure about the hourly but the problem really is the long wait between big cashes. Good chance that I'll play MTTs on stars from time to time, but they won't be my staple.

Dec 2nd closing BR £505

Ran like shit today, despite playing mostly well, damage minimal. Satisfied.

Graph of your play so far?

Spoiler alert... I can't use tracking on this site. I don't even think I can d/l my hand history, I can only see a list of 500 hands, and can only refine my search to as early as September 2018. So doesn't look like I can do graphs, while HHs will be a pain.

3rd Dec £595

4th Dec £603
Only played an hour of poker today.

Didn't play much poker yesterday, either. Closed £624.

One hand...

UTG (£30) minraises to £1
folds to hero (£20) on BU, hero has AKs
hero goes all in
blinds fold
UTG calls, shows K8o

flop 8xx etc

Note on UTG -
fishy as fuck, l/c KTo vs 30bb 3b shove

15 minutes later, he was broke. Sadly it was everyone else who got my money, I won a fiver back next hand with AA against his AT but other than that all I could do was sit and watch.

Still, got fucked in a short session for a large pot, and still walked away in profit thanks to my other tables.

Time for breakfast, then I'm making up for lost time. Two days busy, now I have four days with a clear calendar.

sounds like fun, best of luck!

Cheers. Yesterday was fun. Swingy as FUCK. At one point I was down to around £515, closed at £625. Insane.

One crazy hand... (stack sizes are rough)
UTG folds
HJ (£20) - opens to £1.50
CO (£40) - calls
BU folds
SB (£50) - calls
Hero (£20) is BB with AJs

Every single played has a note on them, they're stacking any suited ace for sure, lots of unsuited aces, broadway, pairs, my pre flop decision is ridiculously easy.

Hero goes all in.
HJ calls and is all in, CO calls, SB calls.
Flop rags.
SB checks, CO goes all in, SB calls.

HJ shows TT and is in the lead with his overpair.
CO shows A7s and has fuck all.
SB shows KQo and has fuck all.

Turn J
River K

The guy who won that hand got up to £170. When I left the table, he had £15. He made a similar call with fuck all on Kxx flop and showed QJo. He didn't win that pot. That was the beginning of his downfall.

roll = £644

Steady progress. Been running bad for a day or two, finally started to run good late this evening and I'm back in the right direction. Kinda want to keep playing, but it's 1am and I'm tired.

I've just figured out how much rake I've generated so far this month for the poker site... £414. Wankers.

However, if I make my rakeback targets, which is reasonable at my volume, I can expect to get around 20% back in the form of £40 a week and around £160 a month. So that's £300+ in rakeback alone.

With that in mind, my bare minimum average profit needs to be in the region of £75 a week. So basically a tenner a day. That's 20bb. Fucking easy. I should have a healthy surplus, if I haven't I'm either running bad or playing bad.

Busto?

Nope. But since you want an update... I had a bad day (both IRL and poker), and went on stupid tilt. After blowing £150 like an idiot, I decided to stop being an idiot and cashed out £200 so if the worst happens and I lose the rest, it was still a profitable venture and I have a nice Christmas.

Yesterday I played for the first time in a few days, trying to ease myself back in, won around £80, BR is now just shy of £400. Gonna play poker all weekend and try to get back to where I was.

My day of tilt started off ok. But I kept losing when getting it in dominant. It just kept happening. I'm ok with this for a while, but there's only so many times you can think "thanks" when an idiot calls K9o to your shove and gets there. I think "I'm making money thanks to these calls, can't win them all", and plod on. But I'm only winning money if I actually hold up over half the time.

I know this can happen in poker, but I suck at dealing with tilt. Best thing I can do is take a break.

So probably not a long term venture then?

Shame to hear you had a bad day. Happens unfortunately. If losing 60/40 flips gets to you then it really isn't the game for you because I can tell you that can go on for a very long time.

We'll see. I mean I really don't need to earn much to make it work. I just need to deal with tilt better. I've had personal shit going on too which I haven't always dealt with well, I have the occasional bad day and that happened to be one of them. I shouldn't have played poker, but I wanted to take my mind off things. If I'd have run good, it probably would have worked.

I'm up to £422 today, and I haven't played as much as I intended, been doing other stuff. If I'm up to £1k by the end of the month, well I'd consider that well and truly back on track. That's my target for now. Two weeks to double my roll, basically. Seeing as I built it in that time, and have had a bad day, I think it's reasonable. Long term venture? Maybe. I like that I can just take a few days off when it stresses me out. Can't do that with a crappy normal job.

Ong you're not a moron get a normal non crappy job and when you start finding it crappy change things up. Don't be a moron whilst at work and any managers worth their salt will have you moving up quickly and if your manager is shit, move.

People are too obsessed with not working for the man when the reality is as a worker who isn't enslaved by debt you can tell the man to suck your anus and move onto better things. If your issue is working period then poker is the nut worst thing to do.

At a nut worst you could earn 18k a year doing as little work as humanly possible and constantly changing jobs when you get bored.

As mentioned, if tilt is even a small issue in your game then you cannot be a professional poker player. Variance won't get any better as you play more volume.

I don't think that variance gets better, I expect to deal with tilt better. Tilt is surely a small issue in everyone's game. Are you telling me that you play your A-game 100% of the time? If no, then you are subject to tilt.

What determines if I can be a professional poker player or not is if I am making enough money. Tilt is a barrier, but not an impassable one.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Are you telling me that you play your A-game 100% of the time? If no, then you are subject to tilt.

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No, I'm telling you that I am not a professional poker player because I, like you, do get affected by tilt from time to time.

99.9% of poker players could never make it as professionals for a number of reasons. Tilt is one of them - you have to have an improbably high tolerance of variance to play poker full time, something that the vast, VAST majority of people don't have.

Having said that, I think the biggest reason the majority of people very quickly back out after these "I'm going pro!" brags is because there is a point that people realise that playing poker full time, particularly online only and with no chance of earning anything above a low-medium level salary from it, is a fucking awful existence that you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy. I think you'll get to that point more quickly than you think, assuming you don't go bust first.

A low-medium salary is all I hope for. I don't have things like kids and mortgage, nor do I want them. I thought I'd been clear about my requirements for this to work... £600 a month as a bare minimum. That's a pretty fucking low income. An awful existence? Depends on your needs and circumstances. I've been existing on that for a decade.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

An awful existence? Depends on your needs and circumstances. I've been existing on that for a decade.

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I'm not talking about the money, I'm talking about the quality of life and stress involved in being a low-stakes online poker pro.

Oh, well it's a better quality of life than going to work five days a week, at least for me. And the stress doesn't compare either. If I tilted like that every day, then yes it would compare.

I'm not pretending I enjoy every minute of playing poker. I don't. I enjoy winning, I don't enjoy losing. It sucks when I'm not enjoying myself. But at least I can stop, go make a cup of tea, perhaps even take the day off, maybe even three days off. That's the difference. I've been playing today, just had some muppet take 40bb off me hitting a flush on the runner. Hasn't bothered me, and that's because I took time away from the tables to reassess my strategy, especially with regards to dealing with tilt. Instead I left the table, made spliff and tea, took break. Do some Christmas shopping now, then back to the tables this evening.

If you think the life of poker isn't for everyone, you're right, but neither is the life of the 9-5 grind.

BR = £422, so that's now a full recovery from my tilt day, since I've withdrawn £200. If not for cash outs and tilt, I'd be over £700, so I'm positive going forwards.

You have less money than you started with. Have withdrawn more than you said you would and are nowhere near your monthly target of money made.

Thanks for the pep talk.

Money I've withdrawn is money I've made. It counts towards my target. If I go broke because I'm withdrawing, tough titties for me. But at least I have some extra cash this Christmas thanks to poker, so it's all been worth it whatever happens from here.

Without cash outs, I'm at around £650 with ten days of the month left... well, probably five or six days of poker but that can't be helped. I've already earned my minimum amount required to do this, so I see no reason to be negative about my long term prospects. I can play a lot better than am I doing, so why should I be concerned? I expect improvement.

What are you doing to improve?

You said £1000 a month, then you later changed this to £600 a month as a bare minimum. Without cashouts your roll is £650 and you started with £450. That's £200 which is very much off the pace of £600.

You said you would only withdraw money over £600 so you could build a roll. This has already been failed and the reasons you did this were poor and show weak mindset.

The bit about playing better not tilting etc is just hand wavy nonsense that doesn't mean anything. You can also play worse, tilt more which with how much worse you can play and how much more you can tilt as apposed to better is more likely.

Not being a dick I just want you to realise you're being silly and you're selling yourself short. Read your own posts and then look at your reasoning in later posts and see if you think it's valid.

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Originally Posted by aka_red

What are you doing to improve?

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Good question. Primarily, I'm trying to play with more discipline. I mean, if you're asking me if I'm reading articles in between sessions, then no I'm not. I have thought about it, but what's the point? Honestly? Everyone plays differently, the key to winning at poker is to adjust, not to play a rigid game based on rigid ranges. I try to profile my villains, and make decision based on their tendencies.

Things I'm doing differently to when I started...
Folding small pairs much more often with a short stack, suited connectors too. I was essentially setmining with 10-20bb stack far too often.
Turning chat off when I'm winning (it serves as a distraction).
Turning chat on when I'm losing (tilt control, I fold and rant instead of making sloppy spite calls and raises).
Bailing on my sessions if I'm not able to control my tilt, taking breaks and not feeling like I have to play to make money. To begin with I was playing too much poker.

My biggest enemy right now is tilt. I tend to play very good solid poker when things go well, but there's a big risk of me playing dumb when I lose. So for me, tilt control is the most important area for me to focus on. If I can play my A-game even when I'm losing, then my losing sessions won't be so brutal, and my winning sessions will be brutal for my opponents.

This is where I expect my improvement to be. If I can get on top of tilt, and I'm doing better than I was, then things will improve, and they are doing.

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Originally Posted by savy

You said £1000 a month, then you later changed this to £600 a month as a bare minimum. Without cashouts your roll is £650 and you started with £450. That's £200 which is very much off the pace of £600.

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I started this thread at £450, I started my journey a few days before with £50.

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You said you would only withdraw money over £600 so you could build a roll.

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It's Christmas, I want to buy nice things for my family, I want to be able to smoke drink and eat well. I also wanted the knowledge that if I go broke, I didn't spend December wasting my time.

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The bit about playing better not tilting etc is just hand wavy nonsense

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This is hand wavy nonsense. Tilt is a serious problem for me, it's what's holding me back. My tilt day was the extreme example, but it creeps in all the time.

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You can also play worse...

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Of course I can. This is what tilt is. It's me playing shit poker because I'm pissed off.

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Not being a dick I just want you to realise you're being silly and you're selling yourself short. Read your own posts and then look at your reasoning in later posts and see if you think it's valid.

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I'm making money, I've made £600 in less than a month. While playing a lot more crap poker than I should be. So I'm not concerned, because I honestly believe I will deal with tilt better than I have been doing. I'm already doing better than I was.

The key to winning poker is to have fundamentals so good you don't need to think about them, then using all your mental energy to think about and focus on executing player specific exploits based on a robust understanding of the theory and math.

I think my fundamentals are good enough for the quality of villain I'm up against. Could they be better? Of course. I'm pretty strong when it comes to the maths fundamentals. I'm capable of estimating my equity to a reasonable enough accuracy in the time given, and I'm not terrible at assigning ranges to people based on the limited information I have. I'm a long way from perfect, but it's a relative standard... how good am I compared to the people I'm sat with? People are certainly not assigning me a range, because the same people keep calling their 66 and KQo to my shoves.

The theory side of things, idk how good my fundamentals are to be honest, all I know is that my opponents' standards are sufficiently terrible that I can easily exploit them.

You seem to find a lot of reasons you don't need to study or improve or be more disciplined. Mainly involving 'I think I'm better than them so whatever I just need to stop tilting'. I think that if you had better fundamentals when you enevitably do tilt it will be less catastrophic as you will have more skills trained to the level of unconscious competence. When I tilt I don't make egregious stack sized errors because my fundamentals are so ingrained.

Why do you suppose I have never been a success at poker before? It's because I'm lazy. When I came to this site a decade ago, it was because I wanted to improve. I started reading articles, getting a better understanding of poker. But it's tedious. I don't enjoy reading. So I read less and less.

I don't want to be dishonest. If I say I'm going to read a shit ton of articles, then I'm lying. I might be sincere when I say it, but deep down I'll know I'm only kidding myself. I don't know if this is something I can fix. I've been lazy my entire life, always looking for the easy way to do things.

idk, I will think about what I can do to improve, and I'm open to suggestions. You got any youtube recs?

Are you truly so averse to applying yourself to better your life? Or are you just scared of humiliation if you try and fail? I used to consider myself 'lazy' and I refused to study because if I tried and failed my ego couldn't handle not being good enough. I've since learned that failure is part of the process and learned to enjoy the process. It's been immensely rewarding to see myself grow and the financial incentives are the cherry on top. It's not a straight line up there will be bumps and setbacks. It won't be easy but it will be worth it.

https://jamesclear.com/fixed-mindset-vs-growth-mindset

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...S-bqzYrvSmMz7s

I'm certainly not afraid of humiliation. If that were the case, I wouldn't have started this thread. But this thread is an excellent example of how I go about things like this... first few days, regular BR updates, genuine enthusiasm, then as soon as I stop enjoying myself, whether that be because I'm running bad or just not having a good time irl, I stop doing the things that require motivation, and instead watch shit on youtube or play some chess.

It's why I can't hold down a job. As soon as it becomes remotely stressful, or tedious, I want out.

I think I am averse to applying myself. I've been satisfied with my life for a long time, but to be honest, that's no longer the case. I don't think a regular job is the solution. Poker could be, and I'm being honest when I say tilt is my biggest obstacle. Two or three bad beats in quick succession is enough to push me off my A-game, and it can take from minutes to as long as a day to get back to solid poker.

Thanks for your thoughts, and the links. I'm about to leave to see my family for Christmas, I will take a look at those when I'm back. And if I can find ways to study that I don't find tedious, then I will look into it. Youtube could be a good solution there, because I don't need to read.

Have a nice Christmas.

I'm not being funny I don't care if this bloke is the best poker player of all time I've said the exact same shit. I litereally want you to do well. Stop being a numpty. You could be crushing easy life.

I can't stop thinking about this challenge and how crazy it was. I just ran some standard deviations on it during my lunch break and find that even if the winrate Ong claimed to be achieving was a) accurate and b) sustainable, risk of ruin would still be 71% :D

With a more realistic winrate, risk of ruin was effectively 100%.