[NL2] Surprised

Printable View

01-03-2015, 09:58 AM
PokerKing

[NL2] Surprised

A new year, and I've decided to give cash game another try, but as I don't have as much time as I'm supposed to put into this, I've decided to start from the bottom at NL2, and just play for some fun :)

I would like to hear opinions on this hand:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $0.89 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 10)
SB: $2.86 (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 24)
BB: $1.27 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: $0.66 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: $2.00 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): $2.02
MP+1: $3.48 (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 59)
MP+2: $2.72 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
CO: $2.78 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.07, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.19, BB calls $0.18, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.82, 4 players) 9:diamond: 6:heart: 3:heart:
SB bets $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.82 and is all-in, SB calls $1.32

Turn: ($4.46, 2 players) 6:diamond:

River: ($4.46, 2 players) 9:club:

SB shows A:spade: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 82%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks Q:spade: Q:heart: (Two Pair, Queens and Nines) (Pre 18%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
SB wins $4.30

Questions:
1. Am I in my full right to be surprised when I see Villian turn over AA? I would have 4-bettet, even sitting with KK :)
2. I was hoping for him to have JJ or TT, and just crossed my fingers that he haven't hit a set. Can I lay this down, or just call him all the way?
01-03-2015, 10:12 AM
acg123

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerKing

A new year, and I've decided to give cash game another try, but as I don't have as much time as I'm supposed to put into this, I've decided to start from the bottom at NL2, and just play for some fun :)

I would like to hear opinions on this hand:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $0.89 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 10)
SB: $2.86 (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 24)
BB: $1.27 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: $0.66 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: $2.00 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): $2.02
MP+1: $3.48 (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 59)
MP+2: $2.72 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
CO: $2.78 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.07, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.19, BB calls $0.18, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.82, 4 players) 9:diamond: 6:heart: 3:heart:
SB bets $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.82 and is all-in, SB calls $1.32

Turn: ($4.46, 2 players) 6:diamond:

River: ($4.46, 2 players) 9:club:

SB shows A:spade: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 82%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks Q:spade: Q:heart: (Two Pair, Queens and Nines) (Pre 18%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
SB wins $4.30

Questions:
1. Am I in my full right to be surprised when I see Villian turn over AA? I would have 4-better, even sitting with KK :)
2. I was hoping for him to have JJ or TT, and just crossed my fingers that he haven't hit a set. Can I lay this down, or just call him all the way?

fish are weird,they do things like this, sometimes if board is dry they will x/shove with AA on say a 962r. I think these are the spots where other fish will make enough mistakes to make up for it. (when they flat a 3bet OOP and donk lead) he probably has a range of donking hands, which surprisingly don't include a lot of FDs. mostly hands that are scared of a check back. which would be TT+, we have 49% vs that range. if we add TP hands like T9s,98s etc. we have 53%. if he only donks pair+ T9hh,98hh, were back to 49%. at first seems like super standard shove but after some calcs its looking rough. this is also making some pretty big assumptions about villains game so im going to lean towards its a marginally +EV shove. I don't think you will lose $$ longrun shoving because villain does have a b/f range, air range as well so marginal is ok.
01-03-2015, 11:22 AM
MadMojoMonkey

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerKing

1. Am I in my full right to be surprised when I see Villian turn over AA? I would have 4-bettet, even sitting with KK :)

You didn't post any ranges for any Villains on any street. I'm guessing you live in a state of surprise fairly often with this approach. ;)

You would have 4-bet? Next time you're in a hand against yourself, you have a solid read to pwn that guy. :)

I joke. If you are surprised, then that's fine. Experiencing the emotions is part of the joy of playing poker.
ALWAYS learn from your surprise. Being surprised by the same thing twice is embarrassing.

What you would do is only relevant as providing a base point from which you think about other players.
You would have 4-bet, Villain didn't. What are some other assumptions you made about this 30VPIP/20PFR player that may be wrong?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerKing

2. I was hoping for him to have JJ or TT, and just crossed my fingers that he haven't hit a set. Can I lay this down, or just call him all the way?

There are 3 buttons, eh? bet/raise, check/call, and fold..?

What are the pros and cons of each option?

Folding an overpair OTF to 1 bet is almost definitely going to be a bad move more often than not. Not too many players would avoid betting TPTK on flops, so an overpair is going to be strong a lot of the time. Note that it's about the player's tendencies, not a general rule. Most players will bet a range of hands OTF that make continuing with overpairs +EV. If you know a Villain would not bet OTF with less than 2-pair, then folding an overpair would be easy and obvious.

You didn't have to shove, though. You could call.

A) How many combos are in Villain's range before you shove?
B) How many combos are in Villain's range if he calls the shove?
C) What is your equity against Villain's calling range? (using equilab, pokerstove, etc.)

EV from Villain folding = (A - B)/A * ($1.32)
EV from Villain calls/Hero wins = (B/A) * C * ($3.14)
EV from Villain calls/Hero loses = (B/A) * (1 - C) * (-$1.82)

EV = (A - B)/A * ($1.32) + (B/A) * C * ($3.14) + (B/A) * (1 - C) * (-$1.82)
EV = (A - B)/A * ($1.32) + (B/A) * (C * ($3.14) - (1 - C) * ($1.82))

EV calcs are not hard. You just put the %-age chance of all outcomes and multiply by the value of the outcome. Then add that up.
The value (A - B)/A is the % of hands that Villain folds. B/A is the % of hands that villain calls.
01-03-2015, 12:13 PM
Keith

since you are playing cash games are you doing the january challenge , you only need 30 hands per day to get into the all in freeroll.

bearing in mind its FR and UTG+1 is 20/5 i'm not sure i want to be 3betting him especially with 3 aggro 3bettors sat behind you . think i prefer to flat the UTG+1 raise and reevaluate when the betting gets back to me . If UTG or UTG+1 4bets over a CO,BTN,SB 3bet i'll probably let the queens go , if UTG and UTG+1 fold to a 3bet i'll probably 4bet and look to get it in as i think we're probably ahead of their ranges . if they call , meh , i'll probably call and see a flop but i'm not super excited about my hand.

The trouble with relying on 3bet stats in this case is that sample sizes are really small and could easily be influenced by a couple of good hands dealt close together.
01-03-2015, 05:11 PM
PJfan10

Hi PokerKing

I play a lot of 2NL and still learning. It never feels good losing to an over pair especially AA. I agree with your re-raise to $.20 pre-flop just to put a smaller range of hands my opponents would have. Playing 2NL there are a lot of players just looking for sets and flushes. If i'm reading your hand history correctly, 3 players called your bet pre-flop re-raise. I would definitely put 1 of the other players on pocket pairs. The other 2 AK-AQ or A-suited looking to get lucky with a flush. With a flop like that I like you would think I would be leading too but cautious of the set finds out there. SB bet of $.50 I would think he hit the set or maybe even AA KK. I see a lot of players with AA just call a re-raise in hopes the raiser will continue to play aggressively.
01-03-2015, 07:30 PM
Keith

Quote:

Originally Posted by PJfan10

Hi PokerKing

I play a lot of 2NL and still learning. It never feels good losing to an over pair especially AA. I agree with your re-raise to $.20 pre-flop just to put a smaller range of hands my opponents would have. Playing 2NL there are a lot of players just looking for sets and flushes. If i'm reading your hand history correctly, 3 players called your bet pre-flop re-raise. I would definitely put 1 of the other players on pocket pairs. The other 2 AK-AQ or A-suited looking to get lucky with a flush. With a flop like that I like you would think I would be leading too but cautious of the set finds out there. SB bet of $.50 I would think he hit the set or maybe even AA KK. I see a lot of players with AA just call a re-raise in hopes the raiser will continue to play aggressively.

how are you reacting to 4bets or callers to your 3bet
01-04-2015, 12:00 AM
OngBonga

I like hero's line. At 2nl we can expect villain to turn over plenty enough shite to more than pay for his rare KK/AA. Most villains at these stakes are calling 88 and better, along with flush draws and occasionally utter shit like 55 or straight draws, and of course sets. We utterly crush a reasonable range here. Playing overpairs hard and fast like this is rarely going to be a mistake at 2nl.
01-04-2015, 02:27 AM
PokerKing

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I like hero's line. At 2nl we can expect villain to turn over plenty enough shite to more than pay for his rare KK/AA. Most villains at these stakes are calling 88 and better, along with flush draws and occasionally utter shit like 55 or straight draws, and of course sets. We utterly crush a reasonable range here. Playing overpairs hard and fast like this is rarely going to be a mistake at 2nl.

Yes, even with AA, letting to many players into the pot can be dangerous. As we are only talking $0.20, I can imagine that the other two players might call, especially UTG+1 who raised. If I had the Aces there I would raise, and try to get heads up to limit the chances of being beat on the flop. For NL2 the pot is already kind of big after my 3-Bet, so why not try to get some players out of the pot?

Lessons learned:
1. I have him noted for Trapping.
2. I must work on EV calc :)
01-04-2015, 02:46 AM
PokerKing

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

since you are playing cash games are you doing the january challenge , you only need 30 hands per day to get into the all in freeroll.

Thank you, I'm aware of it. I normally start out by playing some Spin & Go', and two of those also completes the challenge :)
01-11-2015, 09:35 PM
PJfan10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

how are you reacting to 4bets or callers to your 3bet

When someone re-raises me pre-flop that is my greatest weakness so far. I will call re-raises with really strong hands and in position. When I'm the raiser I fell better reading my board and opponent. Ususally a good C-Bet on the flop will win me the hand regardless if I hit or miss.