10nl AK-tptk facing shove on flop

He is running 15/8 over 60 hands. Only hand that he has shown down was KK, which he popped for 11xbb pre, then checked down flop turn and river. Range pre I guess TT-QQ, AK. So flop, AK add 77 which I don't think he has pre, slow played AA, but this guy plays his big hand aggressive pre, not post flop. The only hands that really make sense are AK and what? This is the first time he has called a 3-bet pre, so how much wider do I need to make his range?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($13.30)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($4.95)
CO ($10.25)
Button ($6.60)
SB ($10.50)
Hero (BB) ($10.70)
UTG ($20.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with :ks:, :ac:
4 folds, CO bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.20, CO calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.45) :7s:, :2s:, :ad: (2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises to $9.05 (All-In), Hero?

What do you think he's playing on this flop that beats you?
Maybe he's set hunting 77.. okay - I think more likely is a weaker ace, possibly with a flush draw.. I'm thinking his most likely holdings here are AsQs, maybe AsJs? He's in cutoff and we're BB.. his range could be wider, but I think even for 1/9 of his stack he isn't likely set hunting, as this is -EV unless he thinks he can bet out on a low flop too.. I'm not going to run calcs on this, other than EV.. we need 7.05/20.55 = 34.3%
Obviously you think his holdings are pretty strong, but top pair, reasonable kicker, flush draw I'm shoving here to a bet too. Also the slightly sub-pot bet can either look like a value bet (it is) or a bluff - depending on your playing style and the villain's thoughts.. If you wanted to run calcs I'd do it around your range, maybe the hands I included.

Against his range, even if it includes sets and nut flush draws, you're crushing him. I think he doesn't believe you have the ace and he's trying to bully you out of the pot, or he also has AK and thinks he is crushing your range. Either way, seems like an easy call to me.

i cant see him having a FD very much at all here because his opening range seems tight, and his 3bet calling range is presumably tighter. there aren't likely to be too many non-paired hands in there, and the K of spades in your hand means he can't have AsKs. i think there are two flush draw combos in his range at most (AsQs, AsJs) but he could well be folding AJs preflop here, who knows.

i think his value range is as follows. yes 22 and AA could arguably be discounted because most villain's fold and 4bet these preflop. but i put them in.


14,850 games 0.001 secs 14,850,000 games/sec
Board: 2s 7s Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.848% 10.59% 19.26% 1572 2860.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 70.152% 50.89% 19.26% 7557 2860.50 { AA, 77, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AKo }

i doubt we'll need him to be c/raising with many bluffs or worse value hands to make up 35% equity, which is roughly how much we need to breakeven on a call.

for example, if we think he does this with AQ:

Board: 2s 7s Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.928% 32.00% 13.93% 6652 2896.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 54.072% 40.14% 13.93% 8345 2896.50 { AA, 77, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AQo+ }

or if he is checkraising any middle pairs or anything else stupid because he thinks we are full of shit, our equity is pretty similar.

without reads that he is a tight reg i probably look him up here and take a note on his line with whatever he shows down with.

It's really unlikely that someone running 15/8 is set mining with 77 or 22 here (what's his fold to 3bet %?) unless he feels like he's "priced in" and in position to your 3x raise (I'd probably make it 3.5-4x to go here since we're OOP). He'd certainly be 4betting AA and KK pre. He'll do this a lot with AQ+ and/or flush draws. Easy call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by deucesomething

It's really unlikely that someone running 15/8 is set mining with 77 or 22 here (what's his fold to 3bet %?)

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exactly. he probably shouldn't be setmining here, but without fold to 3bet stats here, i don't think we can be sure that he isn't. that said, because we need 34%ish equity, the board is dry and villain's nut combos are thin and arguably discounted (because the hands that make them typically get either 4bet or folded pre, as you said) i think it's a call. i just don't really like automatically assuming that micro villain's actually play as they "should" ie setmine OOP with correct odds etc, because i play these games under the assumption that most don't. i'm picking nits here so i'll stop.

to pick another nit. regarding my above post. the board isn't "dry" per se, but villain's range has so few flush draws due to our Ks blocker that it is relatively non-drawy-heavy.

Easy easy call, not even remotely close.

I think villain does this with AQ but what is hero's range?

I know what the cards on the flop are from reading the thread, but for some reason, I can only see 7s, 2s. Weird.

call for sure. If he has AA or some off 77 (highly unlikely) then gg, but you're chopping with AK or beating AQ a lot here, with a small possibility of a flush draw though unlikely

I'm kind of a 3-bet nit. My range pre for 3-bet here is JJ+, AK. And I most likely check JJ-KK on the flop, hoping to get value from QQ-KK on later streets. So yeah, I'm at the top of my range on the flop, which is why his shove has me confused and 2nd guessing. From this flop and my bet, I expect a call from AK, AQ and maybe one street some of the time from TT-QQ. 14 combos of AK,AQ + 25% of 18 combos TT-QQ= 18.5/32 ~58%. And I expect a fold the rest of the time. I never expect to be shoved over on. Maybe he thinks I am a lagtard who can do this with AT and would love to call his shove, that is definitely not my image at the table, but then again, who knows how well he is paying attention. Anyways, after a little time I decided there was nothing in his 3-bet flat range that had me crushed so I looked him up. He showed up with AsQs. Now I am trying to figure out if his shove is right given the logistics of the hand, and that I play straight forward in 3-bet pots. Let's assume he has no fold equity and my range post flop is AA, AK.



Board: 2s 7s Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.397% 55.86% 00.54% 4977 48.00 { AA, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.603% 43.06% 00.54% 3837 48.00 { AsQs }

After the math, he is +EV to shove and I'm +EV to call (hello dead money). I wonder how this hand plays post flop if I flat pre?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

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Yes, thanks. But... What if I am having a hard time ranging villain? Which is why I posted the hand, I wanted other peoples opinion on villains range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by trilerian

Yes, thanks. But... What if I am having a hard time ranging villain? Which is why I posted the hand, I wanted other peoples opinion on villains range.

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Practice more duh. That's the right purpose for this type of thread.

Side note: I wish people would stop trying to use range as a verb.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Practice more duh. That's the right purpose for this type of thread.

Side note: I wish people would stop trying to use range as a verb.

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i range far and wide in my search of oracles who can explain the confusing range of situations where i can use the term 'range'

to the hand in question. 15-8 means he has probably read some poker, stats read is supported by his non-retarded 3-bet sizing with KK. So he likely knows what a 'button vs blind' situation is and maybe is running a HUD. But he won't correctly understand what this situation means for his calling range ip vs your 3-bet, and may set-mine any pair. He beats AJo, or has one of a couple of monster draws (As3s/AsQs/AsJs) - so base your range on that. There aren't so many combos of A2s, but there are some. Then it's stove time.

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