Bluff this river? 100NL 3b Pot

Villain is 16/10 tagg reg who I haven't seen get out of line. 3b only 4b% of the time. I'm probably seen as pretty loose preflop but not sure how he perceives me postflop. I decided to flat IP since we are 150ish bb deep.

He has a 3b CB of 100% (8 sample size) so I expected him to fire this board all the time. I expected him to C/F and give up all non AA/AK/KK hands on the turn plus a lot of scare cards can come. On the river he only has AA/AK and never a flush. Do I bluff? If so what bet sizing?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) -

saw flop

Hero (MP3) ($197.38)
CO ($136.43)
Button ($106.50)
SB ($147.61)
BB ($115.58)
UTG ($196.50)
UTG+1 ($278.66)
MP1 ($158.92)
MP2 ($26.38)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/5s.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/7s.gif
4 folds, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, SB raises $9.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kd.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/7c.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/3d.gif (2 players)
SB bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/5d.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28.50, SB calls $28.50

River: ($106) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kh.gif (2 players)
SB checks and has $95.11 behind.

Well if his range is KQs, AK, AA, QdQx, possibly KQo or KJs then it seems like a bad idea

i think river is no bet ..you have some showdown value of Ad x but you also can see sometimes 99-qq...check is the best option in my opinion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by postiga

but you also can see sometimes 99-qq

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If this is true, then surely this makes bluffing better?

I'm shit at combos. Is it 6 AA and 6 AK? If I think this guy is always folding his AA to a shove, this is what I do. Having said that, I don't think there's many people always folding AA here. So I prob meekly give up and check behind. But I don't frequent these stakes, I'm just throwing my salt in because I read the thread.

I don't think he ever flips over 99-QQ at river, by the way.

I would not bet in this spot because he is either trapping you or checking because he has a hand but does not know whether or not he is ahead.

I would def bet

Yeah I feel like they're gonna just check/call

I say just check and see the hand.
There is still a good chance you are ahead here

id check also, unless you know the player

He can't have QQ/JJ here?

I wouldn't worry too much about what he has. What do WE have against a tag on this board? Let him worry about that instead.

i say def check, your hand has some value.

Not a huge fan of flatting pre

there is basically zero chance our hand is good otr... if you're seen as loose preflop like you say I'd just giveup (nit here)

Also I would bet turn slightly more

maybe if he wasn't such a nit

$77 on river

check is good option in this case

I fucking love the $77 bet. This thread just single-handedly made me miss this game. He has to fold AA, right? So we have to bet. #disregardmyopinion #outoftheloop.

edit: sorry just realized this was bumped by a freeroller XD

Heh I remember this hand, back when I used to play FR. $77 sounds perfect.

Results: I chickened out and checked back. Villain won with AA. Don't remember if he had ace of diamond.