I've got a serious dilemma...

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03-06-2017, 11:13 AM
Lieutenant_OH7

I've got a serious dilemma...

I have been into poker cashgames and MTTs since a few months, I used to play hold'em with playchips, but that was years ago. I wasn't taking it very serious, but the game suited me well, and I wanted to try it with real money at some point... Took a few years until I really got back into poker, and 4months ago I finally started...

I was succesful in some MTTs, and won 8 of those in a pretty short time. I mainly focused on cashgames though, which seem to suit me a lot more, I realised some time later... Started playing cashgames on a bitcoin poker site (Betcoin), read a good review about it and gave it a try with my very first deposit. Quite some gamblers/fish on there so that helped to make some profit already... I played on 2 other poker providers, one of the few sites only that are legal in my country (Belgium). I got better and more refined in the game as I played cashgames. Since some time I also multi-table which worked well too.
I did loose some money, but got better along the way, more insight into the game etc, so that motivated me to continue...

But now my problem:
I was able to make really nice profits in a short time, like I started with 10$ buy-in in a room, and in the same room I went up to almost 100$, playing some hours. That convinced me I could really make good money with poker, and the possibilities had to be even much better than this, since I was still playing at really low stakes... But the problem was I seemed to loose a lot of that money in the end... Did I play too loose or overconfident when I got a big stack? Was I lucky and did I think I was already that great because I made great profit, and kept on making mistakes, after those upswings?
I think it's a combination of all those things...

But the surprising (or not surprising) thing was that this pattern seemed to repeat itself later on, in a very similar way. I won a lot in a period like a day, but lost it again sooner or later, and offcourse that frustrated me...
AT some point I made more than 300euros in a day, and that really gave me wings... I was convinced that I could be a professional poker player, and the possibilities had to be much greater than this, in the end...
But even then I couldn't continue and keep those good results day after day... I didn't want to give up and I started again on the bitcoin site, playing up to 3 tables at a time, and they offer a nice VIP system with rakeback.
It did seem to going better than before, even with some downswings.
At times I did get mad and frustrated on bad beats and bad luck, cuz I thought I was so unlucky at times (I do have similar problems in life in general). But I still wanted to continue, thinking I also learned out of the hands that went wrong...

But so to cut my story short: I would love to be a professional poker player, I really like the game... For example the strategic thinking, the learning and evolving, the fact that you can play it from wherever you live, at any time. That you are not dependant on other people or a boss, etc... I feel like I really need it, to give me the (financial) freedom I'm looking for in life. I do have an income now, so in theory I don't need the money... I don't have a job though, and a "regular job" is just not an option for me (anymore). I was so euphoric when my earnings began to be really good playing cash games, and at another time when it went bad, I cried of pure sadness...
I don't want to give up that dream yet, thinking I really have the talent for this game, and already proven that I can do it, despite the losses...
But I can't deny that it's not really good for me if bad beats do get me mad, and my play might suffer under that too. Or the financial losses if I couldn't get my earnings and positive balance stable... In my opinion it's easier to find that balance though when you play games, rather than tournaments. I also feel that there is more luck involved in tournaments...

I do think the only way to find out for sure is maybe to give it once last chance, and do my very best to get it going... I gave myself a period of at least a few weeks now to consider, what the best thing is to do, because this is really a difficult situation for me. So I stopped playing for now...
It's quite important to me because if I could be a poker pro, it could really give me the life I want... That I can live independent (now living with my parents still), build something up and have the money in life to make plans etc... (Now I just have a limited income). Thats why I don't want to give up that quickly, but maybe you guys have a different opinion. At this moment I just wouldn't know what else to do if I had to forget about poker. So only if I'd see it really is not for me, or does not work out, I'd stop...
I'm also thinking, if poker is not for me, what do these pros have or can do what I could not? That might sound a bit arrogant, but I really believe I have all the skills to be a great player... I might not have nerves of steel, and I do have my flaws, but so does everyone, I think.

All ideas, advice or inspiration is appreciated!
03-06-2017, 12:17 PM
Savy

So basically you're a losing poker player and you want to go pro.

Probably not a good idea but gl.
03-06-2017, 01:44 PM
Lieutenant_OH7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Savy

So basically you're a losing poker player and you want to go pro.

Probably not a good idea but gl.

Either you must be dumb, or you cannot read... I told you I won like 10 tournaments already, and didn't even play that much tournaments... How is that losing? I hope people with some more brain will respond to my topic instead.
03-06-2017, 01:50 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

But the surprising (or not surprising) thing was that this pattern seemed to repeat itself later on, in a very similar way. I won a lot in a period like a day, but lost it again sooner or later, and offcourse that frustrated me...

Not surprising. What you describe here has a name... variance. You say "I won E300 one day" like that's pure profit. Well, if you're a winning poker player, maybe E100 of that is actual profit, and the other E200 is paying for the times you lost since your last profitable game. You seem too results orientated, which basically means you're reading too much into a small sample size. How much you win in one session is going to tell you nothing about how good you are at poker. Your overall winrate over the course of twenty sessions is more likely to tell you something. Better still, understanding why you won E300 on one night will definitely help. Did you play well, or play badly and get lucky? Were the other guys bad players? How so? Are you likely to play these people again? Did you learn enough about them to know how to exploit further their weaknesses?

Winning is obviously great for confidence, but it can be misplaced confidence if one is led to believe they are better than they are.

Being a professional, I'm not sure it's as fun a lifestyle as some people seem to think. Ask yourself a question... can you keep focus and play your best when you're on a bad run of variance and you're worried about how you're going to pay your rent/mortgage? Can you play under that pressure? How are you going to react when some lucky dipshit hits his flush when you really needed to win that hand to break your bad run of unbelievable bad luck? Are you also motivated enough to spend as much time learning and analysing your past hands as you spend actually playing poker? Are you disciplined when it comes to gambling? Can you step down when your bankroll is disappearing or will you stay at the same level to try and win back your money faster?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be able to earn a living playing poker. However, when we're playing to pay the rent, instead of as a casual bit of fun that happens to make a little bit of money, then it's a different world.
03-06-2017, 01:52 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

Either you must be dumb, or you cannot read... I told you I won like 10 tournaments already, and didn't even play that much tournaments... How is that losing? I hope people with some more brain will respond to my topic instead.

Try not to accuse regs of being dumb if they say something you don't like, it'll just descend into childish bickering before you disappear without getting any constructive conversation.
03-06-2017, 03:30 PM
Keith

atthe start people didn't know you or the way you play so probably folded or didn't believe you when you had the nuts. over time they develop reads on the way you play ...or hud had built a decent sample on you and they could play better against you leading to losing sessions.Also guessingthat bankroll management was non existent.
03-06-2017, 06:21 PM
Lieutenant_OH7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

atthe start people didn't know you or the way you play so probably folded or didn't believe you when you had the nuts. over time they develop reads on the way you play ...or hud had built a decent sample on you and they could play better against you leading to losing sessions.Also guessingthat bankroll management was non existent.

No that first argument won't be the case... And how should I have used bankroll management? I think you should first build up a stable balance that can grow over some time and then manage it... I did withdraw some money when I made good profit.
03-06-2017, 06:32 PM
Lieutenant_OH7

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Not surprising. What you describe here has a name... variance. You say "I won E300 one day" like that's pure profit. Well, if you're a winning poker player, maybe E100 of that is actual profit, and the other E200 is paying for the times you lost since your last profitable game. You seem too results orientated, which basically means you're reading too much into a small sample size. How much you win in one session is going to tell you nothing about how good you are at poker. Your overall winrate over the course of twenty sessions is more likely to tell you something. Better still, understanding why you won E300 on one night will definitely help. Did you play well, or play badly and get lucky? Were the other guys bad players? How so? Are you likely to play these people again? Did you learn enough about them to know how to exploit further their weaknesses?

Winning is obviously great for confidence, but it can be misplaced confidence if one is led to believe they are better than they are.

Being a professional, I'm not sure it's as fun a lifestyle as some people seem to think. Ask yourself a question... can you keep focus and play your best when you're on a bad run of variance and you're worried about how you're going to pay your rent/mortgage? Can you play under that pressure? How are you going to react when some lucky dipshit hits his flush when you really needed to win that hand to break your bad run of unbelievable bad luck? Are you also motivated enough to spend as much time learning and analysing your past hands as you spend actually playing poker? Are you disciplined when it comes to gambling? Can you step down when your bankroll is disappearing or will you stay at the same level to try and win back your money faster?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be able to earn a living playing poker. However, when we're playing to pay the rent, instead of as a casual bit of fun that happens to make a little bit of money, then it's a different world.

Yeah, those are interesting questions to ask, and things I will consider. That's also what I'm still wondering about, not only if I could make it but also if I really want that kind of life/job...
You're wrong on the variance part though... Offcourse that exists, but it's not that you're gonna be lucky for 8 hours when playing. That mostly includes bad beats and variance, but I think in cash games you have better control over it. And if you read my story, I said I don't need the money just to live... but offcourse you can have a better life and add more things into your life when you get financially succesful. It would also give a lot more meaning to my life, thats what drives me...
03-06-2017, 07:33 PM
Savy

50 thousand hands is susceptible to some really big bias, 8 hours is nothing. Winning pros who put in 100k+ hands a month have losing months

Tbh post some hands.
03-07-2017, 08:55 AM
OngBonga

Quote:

You're wrong on the variance part though... Offcourse that exists, but it's not that you're gonna be lucky for 8 hours when playing.

I think you're yet to really get an understanding of what variance is. It's not just losing a hand when you were favourite. It's knowing that you're playing well and losing. It's knowing you're playing badly and winning. It's thiniking that god hates you because you can't hold up in a race.

Variance is simply a deviation from the average. We're pretty much always experiencing variance, just to different degrees. It's not a question of "how long" it lasts, rather "to what extent". It can manifest itself in a loss over 10k hands where a profit would be expected.

The phrase "bad beat" is basically an amateur phrase for negative variance. We expected to win, and we didn't, because of probability (not bad luck, we were lucky to get ourselves into a profitable spot). That's a very important point, and if you can train yourself into thinking that it's GOOD when you get your money in as favourite and then lose, then you're doing better than the vast majority of amateurs when it comes to negative variance.
03-07-2017, 08:59 AM
OngBonga

Just like it's good to get money in as favourite and lose, it's bad to get your money is as underdog and then win. Of course, it's nice to suck out, and it sucks when other people suck out on us. But our goal is to put ourselves into a position where probability favours us. Over a large sample of hands, this is how we make money. It doesn't work over a small sample because of variance... we beat variance by playing good poker at high volume... it's like rolling a dice over and over again, hoping to roll a 3,4,5 or 6 to make money. It doesn't matter if the first four rolls are 1 or 2, we know we're making a good bet, and the more we roll, the lower the probability of us showing a loss.
03-07-2017, 03:46 PM
Keith

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

No that first argument won't be the case... And how should I have used bankroll management? I think you should first build up a stable balance that can grow over some time and then manage it... I did withdraw some money when I made good profit.

that sounds like you don't know what bankroll management is. how do you decide what stakes you will play , how much you will buyin for how mny tables you'll play etc.
03-10-2017, 05:49 AM
Lieutenant_OH7

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Just like it's good to get money in as favourite and lose, it's bad to get your money is as underdog and then win. Of course, it's nice to suck out, and it sucks when other people suck out on us. But our goal is to put ourselves into a position where probability favours us. Over a large sample of hands, this is how we make money. It doesn't work over a small sample because of variance... we beat variance by playing good poker at high volume... it's like rolling a dice over and over again, hoping to roll a 3,4,5 or 6 to make money. It doesn't matter if the first four rolls are 1 or 2, we know we're making a good bet, and the more we roll, the lower the probability of us showing a loss.

Yes, I very much agree, for sure good play beats the variance... I don't even believe that variance is what made me loose most times. I think you can only really blame the variance, when you get "bad beats". Cuz if you just don't invest in cards or hands which aren't good, or don't seem to go the right way, you can just throw it away and not invest in it anymore... I think that's the art of loosing as less as possible when "variance" is negative...
03-10-2017, 05:55 AM
Lieutenant_OH7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

that sounds like you don't know what bankroll management is. how do you decide what stakes you will play , how much you will buyin for how mny tables you'll play etc.

Ye ye, feel free to enlighten me, oh you God of BRM... I did use this already when playing and deciding what stakes I would play etc... I felt like my level was higher than the general player on the lower stakes so I decided to move up a bit :) but then I already collected a good bankroll with multiple buy-ins on the higher stakes. I'm such a BRM genius...
03-10-2017, 03:27 PM
Keith

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

Ye ye, feel free to enlighten me, oh you God of BRM... I did use this already when playing and deciding what stakes I would play etc... I felt like my level was higher than the general player on the lower stakes so I decided to move up a bit :) but then I already collected a good bankroll with multiple buy-ins on the higher stakes. I'm such a BRM genius...

Do you want help or just to be a sarcastic dickhead to everyone trying to help you?

Quote:

I'm also thinking, if poker is not for me, what do these pros have or can do what I could not? That might sound a bit arrogant, but I really believe I have all the skills to be a great player... I might not have nerves of steel, and I do have my flaws, but so does everyone, I think.

The answer is that they have and actively practise bankroll management. You couldn't even be bothered to google the phrase to find out about it instead you just assumed you knew what it meant and acted like a dickhead in your replies. Good luck , you're gonna need it with your attitude, I'm out.
03-14-2017, 02:58 PM
MadMojoMonkey

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

I felt like my level was higher than the general player on the lower stakes so I decided to move up a bit :smile:

Letting your feelings guide your decisions when it comes to choosing which stakes to play is almost always a mistake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

but then I already collected a good bankroll with multiple buy-ins on the higher stakes.

This is a more concrete way to choose your stakes, but it's not the whole story.
A good BRM strategy includes a plan for when to move up in stakes, as well as a plan for when to move back down.
Different people have different levels of stress associated with their total number of buy-ins for their BR. I recommend choosing move-up and move-down goals which minimize your own stress as to how much importance you put on winning or losing any single buy-in on an all-in play.

Winning or losing any single hand is literally nothing to concern yourself about. Whether or not you played the hand to the best of your ability is the concern. How the cards hit the table after each decision is irrelevant to whether or not you are making winning decisions. Choose your BRM strategy to acknowledge this fact. Choose it so that you can comfortably lose or win any given all-in hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lieutenant_OH7

I'm such a BRM genius...

Not for nothing, but if you are employing a robust BRM strategy, it is not evident from your posts. Your assertion that your decision to switch stakes was motivated by your feelings is a red flag which usually indicates an impulsive player who is not making well-reasoned decisions based on concrete data.

Try to maintain the humility about your current skills which motivated you to post in the first place. I know you admit to making mistakes and are comforted by the notion that everyone makes mistakes. This is true, but you would not have posted if you were not trying to be humble about your actual skills.