20NL - 2nd river decision (3bet pot)

And here's the 2nd hand:

Only had about 20 hands on villain. He's stats were something like 33/30/2 over those hands. No specific history until then.
I've been 3betting a bit but nothing crazy.
Here villain's range on the river is 88-JJ (I would expect QQ+ to 4bet most of the time), 22, A8,AT,JT, AQ/KQ/QJ, 9T,89,67, suited/gapers clubs (but cannot have Axc as I have the Ac).
My range is quite polarized (even though on the TURN I might not always 2barril with QQ-AA): some AA, 99/88/22, 98s, JT, QT, KT, AT, some overs and air.
Again on the river we have air, by checking we will only win if villain has something like KcJc and he check RIVER. He might push the busted draw though.

Any thoughts? It seems to me his range is most likely pretty strong, but the 9 might make him fold Tx or maybe JJ as well to a push?

iPoker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed)
CO ($20)
BU ($28.54)
Hero (BB) ($26.94)
BB ($20)
Preflop: Hero is SB with AcJs
BU raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.7, BU calls $1.2
Flop: ($3.60) 2d 9c 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, BU calls $1.80
Turn: ($7.20) 10d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.40, BU calls $4.40
River: ($16.00) 9d (2 players)
Hero ????

I just wanna c/f flop, but it's weak. River is a clear c/f.

1/2 pot sizing on flop?

I have many thoughts on why this is too small, but also I can see arguments for why this could be OK, given ranges and other stuffs. Maybe I'm not seeing why you chose this sizing.

Why 1/2 pot OTF?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I just wanna c/f flop, but it's weak.

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Anybody have rules of thumb for ranges 4-handed? 33% VPIP doesn't sound too ridiculous to me.
Infer: Villain isn't being outrageously out of line with hand selection PRE.
Infer: Villain's range to open from BTN is "sensible."

Granted, we don't know how imba this villain's range is to call a 3-bet BTN vs SB, but we expect that AJ is dominating his range (and if it isn't, then OP needs a strong reason to have 3-bet AJ and not called PRE).

Helpful info we don't have: Any further information about what Villain did (preferably post-flop) during the 7(ish) hands that Hero saw Villain VPIP.

Still, Hero can't be x/f in 3-bet pots when he has 2 overs to the board, and one of them is the A blocking the NFD.
This wouldn't be good form in any HU pot, especially not 4-handed. Doubly especially not against a relative unknown.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

River is a clear c/f.

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Nothing is clear w/o stipulating ranges.

@OP: Care to hazard a guess as to Villain's range after each of his decision points?
A) Villain opens to $0.50
B) Villain calls the 3-bet PRE
C) Villain calls OTF
D) Villain calls OTT
This establishes Villain's range at your decision point OTR.

E) IF you bet OTR, Villain's ranges to {fold / call / raise }?
(note that Villain's behavior here may depend on your bet sizing. There is MUCH to learn by exploring how your sizing matters to his range, but for now, just pick the sizing you were going to raise here and guess how Villain responds.)
F) IF you check OTR, Villain's ranges to { check / bet } ?

These will help us use math to determine the most +EV line, given our assumptions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

1/2 pot sizing on flop?

I have many thoughts on why this is too small, but also I can see arguments for why this could be OK, given ranges and other stuffs. Maybe I'm not seeing why you chose this sizing.

Why 1/2 pot OTF?

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My default approach is to 1/2 bet FLOP on 3bet pots as there is no need to bet much more to be able to put all the stack in by the river. But here I missed that I had 130bb so to put all the stack in by the Rivera $1 more would have been better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Anybody have rules of thumb for ranges 4-handed? 33% VPIP doesn't sound too ridiculous to me.
Infer: Villain isn't being outrageously out of line with hand selection PRE.
Infer: Villain's range to open from BTN is "sensible."

Granted, we don't know how imba this villain's range is to call a 3-bet BTN vs SB, but we expect that AJ is dominating his range (and if it isn't, then OP needs a strong reason to have 3-bet AJ and not called PRE).

Helpful info we don't have: Any further information about what Villain did (preferably post-flop) during the 7(ish) hands that Hero saw Villain VPIP.

Still, Hero can't be x/f in 3-bet pots when he has 2 overs to the board, and one of them is the A blocking the NFD.
This wouldn't be good form in any HU pot, especially not 4-handed. Doubly especially not against a relative unknown.


Nothing is clear w/o stipulating ranges.

@OP: Care to hazard a guess as to Villain's range after each of his decision points?
A) Villain opens to $0.50
B) Villain calls the 3-bet PRE
C) Villain calls OTF
D) Villain calls OTT
This establishes Villain's range at your decision point OTR.

E) IF you bet OTR, Villain's ranges to {fold / call / raise }?
(note that Villain's behavior here may depend on your bet sizing. There is MUCH to learn by exploring how your sizing matters to his range, but for now, just pick the sizing you were going to raise here and guess how Villain responds.)
F) IF you check OTR, Villain's ranges to { check / bet } ?

These will help us use math to determine the most +EV line, given our assumptions.

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A) let's take a standard 38% opening: 22+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o+, 87s+, 97s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q5s+, K3s+, A2s+
B) he would call with 14% (which is pretty tight): 66-99, AT-Qo, KTo, KJo, KQo, QJo, 87s-KQs, 97s-AQs, K9s-KQs, A5s-AJs
C) he would call with 13% (indeed pretty bad flop for me :)) : 66 (with 6 of clubs), 77, 88, 99, AT-Qo, KTo, KJo, KQo, QJo, 87s-KQs, 97s-AQs, K9s-KQs, A9s, A8s
D) he would call with 10% : 88-99 (maybe raising 1/2 of these), ATo, AJo, KTo, KJo, QJo, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs, QJs, KQcc, KQdd, 97s, T8s, J9s, QTs, KJs, AQdd, A9s, AJs

Let's say he folds the following hands to a push:
KJ, AJ, KTo, 87s, KQcc, KQdd, QTs, JTs, AQdd = 9 + 9 + 12 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 1= 38

Let's he calls with the rest:
AT, QJ, 98s, T9s, 97s, T8s, J9s, A9s = 9 + 9 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 30

This looks like a push, no?

Excellent response!

I'm just starting my work day, so I'll dig in to this after I'm done.

At first glance, you didn't answer F)
We need the answers to both E and F to determine which river line is most +EV for you.

"This looks like a push"
I still need more info. I haven't looked at the bet and pot values, yet.
There may be more equity in the x (Villain x) or x/f lines.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Excellent response!

I'm just starting my work day, so I'll dig in to this after I'm done.

At first glance, you didn't answer F)
We need the answers to both E and F to determine which river line is most +EV for you.

"This looks like a push"
I still need more info. I haven't looked at the bet and pot values, yet.
There may be more equity in the x (Villain x) or x/f lines.

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Yes I missed F) :-).
it's true that we might win if villain c IP with busted clubs draw. If we x river our range would look like missed clubs draw, maybe some AK, maybe some nut hands wanting him to push river. In adddition there are so few club draws in his hand.
F) villain would check: ATo, AJo, KTo, 87s, JTs, T8s, QTs, AJs (non diamond) = 9 + 11 + 12 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 3 = 42

Would bet: KJo, QJo, 98s, T9s, QJs (diamond or not), KQcc, KQdd, 97s, J9s, KJs, AQdd, A9s, AJdd = 12 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 37

I guess I miss some hands on the analysis above :-(

But anyway, am I giving too much credit for villain to bet on the river that much???

Turn is pretty gross cause I just think we have no fold equity from any hands. Almost his entire range is at worst a combo draw now.

As gross as it is, this might be a c/f turn and just hope he gives you a free card. Either that or maybe bet smaller and essentially block to get a cheap river. we have no fold equity imo.

Turn is a close bet small or c/f and river is def cf.

Ok, let's say that we are not going to see many folds on turn. But we have va most of his hands 3 Aces plus 17 outs that villain won't like (8 clubs and 9 diamonds) plus even 3 Ks and 3 Qs. So that's at least 26 outs scary for villain which is more then 1/2 the deck. Which means a lot of good bluffing opportunities on the river where villain will have a hard time calling with 8x, 9x. Plus we are repping a pretty strong hand.

This is a 3b pot 4-handed, so nobody is gonna make a hero fold cause a flush rolls out imo, esp not a BD flush. They either believe you have an overpair that you are repping and fold or they don't. Not to mention that I don't see why you think a club is better for our range than his. I assume vill can have clubs fairly often.

I think the only cards that are clearly better for our range than his are a K or A river.

This board just hits villain more than us imo. 67, 78s, 77, 88, 99, JTs, TT, JJ, 89s, 9Ts, JTs, JJ, QJ.. not going anywhere on turn and most of these can call river.

Thank for the feedback griffey!
I see your point on turn.