$162 reg speed resteal range spot near bubble

Sup guys.

Hero is 30/50th. 45 paid. The remaining field looks soft, first pays 10k, min cash is 310. There are few stacks in the 4-5k range from what I recall checking other tables. 8 minutes till next blind increase.


How wide do you think villain should open here?

My impression is it will be somewhat loose but not crazy given the button has a comparable stack. My only read on him is he is a Brazilian reg. I am not sure how ICM aware he is and whether he considers anyone else to really be.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 162 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

UTG (t9,477)
UTG+1 (t25,729)
MP1 (t35,811)
MP2 (t16,478)
CO (t19,009)
Button (t23,590)
Hero (SB) (t12,621)
BB (t14,299)

Hero's M: 6.31

Preflop: Hero is SB with X X
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t1,768, 4 folds, Hero raises to t12,521 (All-In) with ? ? ?

This is one of those spots where I should know the answer better but tbh it's been 4 years since I played an online mtt and it was never at these stakes.

I want to say TT+/AQs+ but the answer feels unsatisfactory without knowing what he thinks of you.

He's probably taking advantage of bubble play and seeing if he can scoop up some pots so his range could be very wide, you had the goods to make that move on him right before the $ so I'm sure he made a quick fold :)

Well i assume if your 30th hes top 10ish with that stack.

Is that his standard size? 2.21BBs ?

Being that tight ITM, i expect his calling range to be JJ+, AK. Even if he doesnt study ICM he probably has a general idea of how it works. I expect his opening range to be wider than 66+,suited broadways and Axs from that position.
He has to call 10,753 to win 16,340.
39% equity, were laying 1.51 to 1.
Hes stealing alot in this spot i would imagine. I say well played no matter the hand, as hes folding such a huge chunk of his range to our shove. Especially from SB.

Depends so much on reads and table dynamics. If villain is quite active, 'd also say well played with almost any reasonable hand. For me would include 66+, AJ+, ATs+, any mid or broadway suited cards.
However he had the other big stack on the button, so I would think that slowed down his cheap stealing.

Does icmizer or holdem resources not have a bubble calculator?