Big if true. Fingers crossed that little goblin gets what's coming to him.
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-hi...d-ukraine-war/
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Big if true. Fingers crossed that little goblin gets what's coming to him.
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-hi...d-ukraine-war/
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...omething-human
One of the more difficult reads I've had in a while. A field study in cognitive dissonance, deeply unsettling but fascinating. I think what's needed the most towards Russians is empathy and support, but I'm finding it next to impossible to muster any.
^^
I think the problem there is a lot of them don't experience cognitive dissonance because they're being fed state propaganda on such a grand scale.
A somewhat (not entirely, obv.) comparable situation exists here where the media is dominated by right-wing newspapers, which is why I can't really be angry at people who think refugees in dinghies are overrunning the country, or that Brexit is a good idea. They keep hearing the same messages over and over and eventually it becomes almost hard-wired into their minds.
Finland signs security agreement with UK. Good luck with that Finland. ;)
Finland announces decision to apply to join NATO.
Putin calculating if he still has time to lose the war in Ukraine, pull out and invade Coccoland.
Easily sourced.
https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-...to-membership/
We shouldn't forget Georgia.
People forget that Georgia and Ukraine both wanted to join, but Germany objected because it might hurt Putin's feelings. Oops.
https://twitter.com/timostewart/stat...31358152155136
A brief history of Finland joining NATO.
Do you feel any safer from Vlad the Insaner now?
Could be Rootin' Tootin' Putin won't live long enough to invade Saunaland and Meatballland. Let's fucking hope so.
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world...hpm5heoj485x8n
Well not really, we're likely months away from article 5 guarantees. I'm relieved the application's in, even though I don't see any short-term military threat from Russia. However, this should protect us for decades to come, no matter what happens or who's in charge there, the geography isn't gonna change.
They've not had many timid leaders in their history that's for sure.
Have to say this is the first time in my lifetime I've really had to think about it. I suppose it's the same as eg. living next to the San Andreas fault, or people living next to an active volcano. It's always been there and nothing bad has happened, yet, so it must be safe.
Some info about Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council, former KGB and one of the likeliest candidates to replace Putin.
https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/sta...56066451394577
He sounds like Putin with a little extra batshit thrown in for good measure. Great.
Putin has now put his hungriest general in charge of the invasion of Ukraine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWL09_yU...g&name=900x900
Marxist/Leninists don't like to talk about it, but this is what happens when you eat all the rich.
Shouldn'ta stuck his head in the sauna.
https://twitter.com/HusaJaakko/statu...73680578084864
Apparently a Russian fighter jet invaded Finland's airspace earlier this week. Just found out about it today because obviously the media is more interested in Finnish PM having a social life than Russian acts of provocation.
Ukraine seems to be winning now?
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...54113648037888
Ukraine making some big advances in the East.
https://twitter.com/walter_report/st...42506774712323
Meanwhile St. Petersburg Duma has accused Putin of treason, apparently for the second time now.
https://www.dw.com/en/st-petersburg-...son/a-63079503
Not looking good for Vlad the Insaner.
The tone of the media would have you think they're making "big" advances, they're saying 1158 square miles. That might sound like a lot but the square root of 1158 is approx 34, so it's a square with sides of 34 miles. So basically an English county. Compared to what they've lost, this is tiny. Russia still control vast swathes of Ukrainian territory.
Don't get me wrong, I'd like this war to end as soon as possible like any normal person, I'm just not getting sucked into the propaganda. The gains they're talking about are not nearly as impressive as they're making out.
It's only taken them a few days though. The fact that RU hasn't taken any new territory in months and UA has just started retaking it suggests the Russians are wearing out and UA is getting stronger.
RU economy is also being hammered by Western sanctions. They don't appear to be getting much help, whereas UA is getting loads of it. There doesn't seem to be any positive endgame for Putin in this unless something dramatic happens or the West loses its nerve; the most likely outcome now might be that he gets taken out by his own people.
This could be the turning of the tide, but it can equally be a shift in tactics from Russia. I'm not going to pretend to know which is closer to the truth.
If their new strategy is to start losing territory, they probably need to read Clausewitz again. But yeah, maybe it's some trap they're laying. Doubt it though, I think they're just losing now.
Well it's obviously not a "strategy" to lose territory, not directly, but if your supply lines are overstretched then it makes sense to yield some territory to bolster your supplies elsewhere. Seeing as we're talking about an area roughly equivalent to Hampshire (pulled out of my arse), it's not out of the question that Russia felt yielding such a small amount of territory is a viable option.
I'm just spitballing here. I have no idea what's happening on the ground, why the Russians are losing territory, I don't know how significant that territory is (cities or fields?), and that's because I have no source of reliable information. It's a propaganda war too, and both sides are playing this game. How do you know what to believe?
Sure, you can pull back for strategic reasons but they need to be offset against the propoganda value of how it looks to be losing territory. Being overextended would generally only happen right after a long offensive, not when you've been sitting in the same territory for months. Or you might try to shorten your line if you're running low on troops, but Russia is not typically known for running low on troops.
From what I heard, Zelensky has been pushing for an offensive for some time because he's afraid if the war remains a stalemate the high energy prices would cause the West to weaken. So it seems like they were planning this attack, they did it, and the Russians pretty much just melted away. I certainly don't think that means Zelensky will be marching into Moscow anytime soon, but if Russia keeps losing, the hope is that at some point their own people or oligarchy or military or all of the above will decide Putin has to go.
btw, if you're going to consume propaganda, consume both sides. The Russians are claiming that there are people fleeing the Ukrainian offensive because they fear Ukrainian repercussions, especially from Nazis. Basically they anticipate war crimes along the lines of ethnic cleansing. Some sources claim this has already started to happen.
Do I believe it? Not really. But it's equally as likely as anything else I'm reading about. Why believe one source but not another?
Yeah I did hear some Russian sympathizers were running for it. It's not their land, they picked the wrong side, is my first thought.
Other than that, do I believe the UA is having a successful offensive? Yes. Do I believe UA people are happy to be liberated? Also yes. I'd be surprised if they weren't, wouldn't you?
How can anyone take this seriously? This is clearly hoping that people do not realise how small this area is. Fucking Hampshire. In 72 hours. And they're talking this up like it's the greatest military achievement since the Battle of Spion Kop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Telegraph World News
It's murky in the East of Ukraine. There are many people who would prefer Russia wins. There are also people who would prefer Ukraine wins. Some want liberating. Others don't. I don't know which of these two groups make up the majority.
I mean, it depends how you define "Ukrainian people". If by that you mean anyone living in Ukraine, then your assumption might be flawed. If you mean ethnic Ukrainians, then yes, of course they all want liberating.
The Telegraph. Well I wouldn't believe much of what they say about anything. Wasn't BloJo working for them at one point?
And yeah, it's not Hannibal crossing the Alps. It's impressive, but afaict it's a pretty standard offensive operation that succeeded mainly because it met weak resistance.
It's historically part of Ukraine. There's ethic Russians living there because Russia owned Ukraine for much of its history. They might exist, but they are in the minority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine
(Didn't know Crimea was majority Russian)
The idea that the Russians are just liberating areas of the Donetsk that want to be Russian would have more weight if they had just invaded there and stopped. Seems more like a convenient excuse to me.
Meanwhile 12% of Edinburgh is etnically English, comparable to 14% Russians in Kherson province that Russia also invaded.
Again, murky. The Russians put Russians there over a long period of time to displace the ethnic Tatars so they could eventually win a referendum. Long term planning, and they've been trying to do the same in Donetsk. I really don't know if they've got enough there to win a referendum, I doubt it otherwise it likely would have already happened. Maybe pulling the war trigger was premature, should have waited until the Russians did have a majority in the Eastern regions.Quote:
Didn't know Crimea was majority Russian.
Arguing somewhere is "historically Ukraine" is kinda ridiculous though. Ukraine didn't exist as a sovereign state until 1990.
I mean, if you're saying Donetsk is "historically Ukrainian" and should therefore remain in Ukraine, then the same argument can be used to point out that Ukraine is "historically Russian".
Ong, I wouldn't make too much of a journalist fluffing things by using a unit of measurement that embellishes.
That said, from what I'm seeing, it's laughable that the Russian's are claiming that this is a strategic retreat. Scores of intact tanks, APCs, ammo caches, etc have been captured.
And to give more shape to the picture, Putin is being openly criticized in Russia. That is significant.
That all might be true, but you're presumably getting that from Western media sources.
Controlling the narrative is what the media does, whether it's our media or Russia's.
How is Putin going to exit here and make it look like a success?
idk but if he holds any territory on the Black Sea that's a success, especially if it's a port.
Russian TV is not sounding very optimistic these days:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...70513909022720
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...10989149605888
It might not quite be at level of an exasperated Walter Cronkite saying "I thought we were winning this war." after the Tet offensive in Vietnam, but it's getting there.
By that logic, Scotland is "historically English." You see how weird that sounds?
If instead you define a nation as having a unique language and culture, Soviet Russia was made up of about a dozen different nations (15 separate SSRs in the Soviet Union), and Ukraine used to be one of them. Donetsk was in the Ukrainian SSR, so apparently the Russians assumed it was Ukranian too.
It's not the same though. England is a distinctly different region to Scotland.
Scotland is, however, historically British, even if they leave the UK.
Maybe it is the same. Ukraine is distinct from Russia (not the Soviet Union though).
Still nice advances for Ukraine over the past days. Looks like various fronts of the Russian push are falling apart. Though they could be pulling back to regroup... that's not as likely. Russia had scheduled referendum votes in those regions to take place days after they were retaken by Ukraine. It doesn't *feel* like a strategic withdrawal on Russia's part, given that.
I do read some western media on this, but mostly I keep up on telegrams, some independent conflict journalists, and the Eastern Border podcast. I don't actively read pro Russian sources, but the latter, while pro Ukraine, routinely cites pro Russian sources.
Ong observation: has an odd array of subjects on which he is confident and those for which he inexplicably clings to agnosticism
I mean if you have confidence in the independence of the journalists you're reading, fair enough.
They're still at it...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62884668
It's a big English county now. A 46m x 46m square. That's like at least three Isles of Wight.Quote:
Ukraine war: We've retaken 6,000 sq km from Russia, says Zelensky
Ong's got a point, but downplaying that Ukraine is making progress is weird.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcf8_DtX...g&name=900x900
What am I missing here? Russia already had Crimea, but the rest of that pink area is Russian territory gains in the last five months, no?
Ukraine are certainly making progress, I'm not intending to downplay that, my intention is to point out that the media are exaggerating the gains and using metrics that are deliberately intended to mislead.
I mean this is kinda part of the problem with propaganda. You can't criticise western propaganda without it coming across as supporting Russia or "downplaying" Ukrainian advances. I'm "downplaying" it simply because our media are "uplaying" it, to make a word up on the spot. If you want to discuss this subject, you have two options - "downplay" Ukrainian advances, or be sucked in by our propaganda.
Off on a tangent somewhat, while slightly relevant, I remember once watching Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, and the question was something along the lines of "Which ocean has an area of approximately 1 million square miles?", with four options - Pacific, Atlantic, Indian or Arctic.
The square root of a million is 1000, so this actually isn't very big. Clearly it's the Arctic. But the guy didn't know and asked the audience. The majority went for the Pacific, and the Arctic was the answer with the lowest number of votes. People just don't understand that a million square miles isn't very big, instead they think it's a huge area.
If our media wanted to be somewhat sincere, then they would give the reader a comparison. If Ukraine had taken an area the size of Texas, you can absolutely guarantee that the American media would be keen to use Texas as a point of reference. But when it's a small area they neglect to say "downtown New York" or whatever is accurate, because that would make the reader realise it's not a very big gain. Propaganda.
All good points. I appreciate the perspective.
I guess the point to me is that Ukraine is able to make advances at all.
Until February/March, we all thought that Russia's military was 2nd only to the US.
Then we watch the Russian invasion of Ukraine fail to capture Kiev. We watched the Russian invasion struggle to advance to claim what territory they have claimed. And now we see Ukraine reclaiming some of that territory.
It's fair to say the media bias is intentionally skewed. It is.
It's also not trivial that any nation but the US is able to push back a Russian assault / land grab... even a bit.
I suspect that Russian military is actually much stronger, but the deep historical ties to Ukraine is playing hell on Russian morale for boots on the ground. That's just speculation, though. I find it hard to believe that the whole world was so so wrong about the Russian military capability. Doesn't mean I'm right.
Putin's top general after he watched the pins all moving on the war map.
https://twitter.com/tweet4anna/statu...33850937880576
It doesn't surprise me all that much, I mean they're fighting for their territory while the Russians are a long way from home and battling with the morality of their actions. Morale amongst Ukrainians will be far, far higher than the Russians, and morale is a huge asset in long drawn out wars. The invaders' supply lines become more and more strained the longer the war drags on.
As for the Russian army, they're obviously holding back from their full capabilities, because this isn't a nuclear war, and you would think they have awesome conventional weapons too, but when it comes to boots on the ground warfare, as an invading force, Russia is not an elite military force. We're learning that right now for sure. I expect China will face exactly the same problem if they ever attempt to invade Taiwan.
Even USA isn't necessarily capable of invading every country on the planet. You have to subjugate the population, but if the population isn't afraid to die to protect their freedom then it's not possible to subjugate them. It becomes an impossible war to win, unless you're willing to commit outright genocide of an entire population.
Nah, haven't you heard? When the US invades, it's to BRING the freedom.
You see... the US is the only place on Earth with freedom. And other people don't even know how bad they have it, not being free and all.
Like, here's some examples:
You think you're free, but if you get sick, you go to the doctor and they heal you, but they don't charge you any money.
Don't you see how persecuted you are?
Here's another one:
You live a nice life, outside of a prison. Whereas in the US, you can have free room and board if you just commit nonviolent crimes.
Don't you see how persecuted you are?
Once you let us give you freedom, you'll see how great it is.
America, fuck yeah!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LasrD6SZkZk
You can go to prison in pretty much every country for nonviolent crimes. Try mortgage fraud, or grand theft auto, or manufacturing crack cocaine, or being a proper journalist.
People have been getting arrested in the UK for protesting the monarchy during the period of mourning. Not sure if they'll go to jail, probably not, but technically you can go to jail in Scotland (but not England or Wales) for "breach of the peace", which is what they charged the guy with who heckled Prince Andrew.
Fun fact - nonce is a slang term in the UK for a paedophile, and is an acronym of "not on normal communal exercise" which is another way of saying "don't let him mix with the other inmates or he'll get murdered".
But when YOU do it, it's inhumane injustice and a violation of human rights.
When the US does it, it's pure freedom, baby.
I did not know that.
I don't really hear the word nonce in the US. Not sure if it's a UK thing, or just me not being social enough.
It's a British word, though I think the Aussies use it too, probably some other commonwealth countries. If the word was ever used as an acronym for prison use in a given country, chances are it's going to leak into common language.
In case it's not obvious, that was the word thrown at Prince Andrew by the heckler. It's funny that our police seem to take more action against people who call Andrew a nonce, than they ever have against Andrew for being a nonce.
I saw that clip and I was sure he said "nonce," but now I look for it again I can only find this one where he called him a "sick old man." Is this a different one and they sanitised the other one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X77advsLnTM
Yeah I'm sure I watched a clip and heard "nonce" but I can't be fucked trawling through old tweets trying to find it. That one you've linked is the Daily Mail, I'll give them less credit than a random Twitter user.
I was just wondering if that tweet was sent for "re-education."
What's the thinking behind the anti-monarchy people being arrested? Is it because they need pre-approval to protest in the UK? It's a bit tasteless to protest now, but I'd always defend their right to protest.
If they were arrested and then released without charge after a little time, then it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume the police are arresting these people for their own safety and nothing more. This is somewhat justifiable . But charging people with a crime? Hauling them up in front of a judge and fining them or even jailing them? No, that's isn't good.
What we're seeing isn't nearly as tasteless as the "God hates faggots" brigade who protest funerals of civilians. I appreciate that's USA, not UK, but they are allowed to protest because we don't reserve the right to protest only to those who have main stream views, neither USA nor UK.
Devolution plays a role here too. Scotland is more fascist than England/Wales. People are still being arrested in England, but I believe the guy in Scotland is being charged with breach of the peace, which is a criminal offence in Scotland with a potential jail sentence. Breach of the peace is a subjective and minor crime, for that to potentially carry a custodial sentence is ludicrous.
Edward Snowden has been granted Russian citizenship. I'm torn between thinking Putin is now a champion of free speech (at least against other countries' governments), and that Snowden was a Russian asset all along.
I saw that. I just read it as sticking it to the US. Russia does not extradite Russian citizens, IIRC. So it's basically a "No, we will never give him to you."
Snowden in interviews has basically said that he's certain the KGB or whoever it is these days is always watching him, listening to his every word, etc. He doesn't believed he's even allowed into a room that isn't bugged.
He's chosen his prison. It's a different one than a US prison, but he's not really free, either.
Which is kinda BS that all he did was expose lies and corruption and the people he exposed it to, the targets of the bad actions, didn't even give a shit. The fact that he exposed all that and people were like, "yeah? so what? We all knew they're corrupt MF's. What do you want us to do?"
And not long after... we get Trump as POTUS.
coincidence?
I mean... IDK... maybe. What do I know about people and why they do such crazy shit?
I'm not really up on his status there. Is he under some kind of house arrest? How do they control which rooms he can go into?
I'm sure they're keeping an eye on him. I'm less sure they weren't paying him all along.
This is my question. Clearly Russia had a vested interest in the US having a shit president for four years at least. Snowden's revelations may have helped that happen. Was the impetus his own desire to be a whistleblower hero, or did Vlad the Insaner grease his palm.
Keep in mind we have no way of knowing how he's ACTUALLY living in Russia. He could be living in a dacha surrounded by skank hoes for all we know.
I really like Julian Assange and believe him to be a true hero of free speech and journalism, but there's something about Snowden I've never felt comfortable with. I suspect he's a Russian agent, and I'm the kind of guy who tries to give these kind of people the benefit of the doubt.
Not that I'm in the know or anything. I could be wrong and Snowden is legit too.