Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
With the feesh in between you and the nit kinda blows, but you are obviously going to 3bet here. Sizing is the only problem imo. He's probly not gonna be calling a shove if he has a draw, maybe with an overpair, but even thats doubtful. The fish may or may not come along with the 3bet, probly will if he has FD, probly not if just a one pair hand. I think a range for the BTN is probly 22+, ATo, KTo, QTo, ATs, KTs, QTs, and probly some pairs and FDs, FDs and straight draws, etc.
He will probly call a large raise with the majority of these hands, so the question is still size. Would raising to $12-15 be too much? Pot is $7.25 after BTN raises, if you raise to $12 it will be $19 and he has to call (if UTG folds) and he has to call $9. So that seems maybe too small? Sorry I'm rambling lol, just trying to spitball and see what would be the best size to raise.
vs reg I feel he'd bluff raise me here alot and will bet a lot when checked to
http://weaktight.com/893565
I think raise to $15-20 and be ready to ship turn if they both call and its a blank. If you only get one caller, bet around 2/3 pot, ship river?
The question is what does the nit limp pf/raise this flop with? Do you think I'm ahead of his range enough to a) raise/call if he 4bshoves b) 3b and bet/call any blank/pairing card on turn
I started thinking about bet sizes to price out draws etc because I'd decided I wanted to design a way to make those calculations easily in my head at the table and this seemed like as good an exercise as any, but then I re-read the reads.
Mega-nit making that play is just so odd. He's kind of building a pot, but not effectively enough that he can expect to get all-in by the river (with one caller pot is around $7 with $50+ behind - even with two callers PSB on both turn and river is not going to get all the money in the middle). So as a pot building exercise it fails - and as a pot building exercise there's really no reason why he shouldn't be betting at least a little bigger and that would set up some better ratios. Also he's making such a small raise that all draws are priced in and must call. What kind of hand would want all draws to call? I was briefly contemplating if the 7d6d combo draw should be considered but I'm not feeling very strongly about it. Higher sets are of course possible as a raise, but for them the raise size seems most odd. Surely those hands would be most keen to both 1) build the pot and 2) price out draws. Unlikely though it seems this pansy raise is consistent with Adxd where he hopes someone is drawing to the lesser flush and will stack off. But that's such a long shot for him to even contemplate.
I don't think he realistically has fold equity on that raise, but maybe he hopes that we'll make a confused call and check turn through for a cheap river card for him.
I'm tempted by the confused call, but the drawback to the confused call is that it leaves me none the wiser. If I felt sets were likely I'd probably call and show strength on any diamond turn. If I think Adxd is likely I'll raise to price out the draw and shove any non-diamond turn.
Ok, I guess I managed to talk my way around to discussing raise sizes on the premise that I'm looking to price out an Adxd hand. I'll use Ad2d as my example. For this exercise I won't just consider pricing out draws in the simple sense, but rather picking a bet size that denies my opponent implied odds. I'll assume UTG folds just to simplify my calculations. I'll assume 2 diamonds are accounted for, so there are 9 diamonds out of 45 cards that make me shut down (not sure yet if I want to fold) and 36 cards that make me shove where I assume he folds and I win. Pretty gross assumptions, but I want to keep it on a level that I could work out in my head at the table to design a calculation that works on that level.
With the call portion of the raise the intermediary pot is $9 and effective stacks behind are $54.80. So from villain's perspective he stands to win $63.80 when he hits his flush (1 in 5) which means he's breakeven if he calls $63.80/4 = $15.95 as the bet portion of the raise. Ok, so to price out the flush draw in terms of implied odds we would need to raise raise to $19 - quite the overbet. So in this case that's probably not a sensible size to bet. But interesting to consider regardless. Amusingly dranger's suggested raise size is to $15-20. ;)
I think we're just in a shitty spot and pot controlling comes to mind. I have a very hard time pinpointing a right move here.
