How's the economy?

I'm trying to get an objective understanding of the current economic situation in the US. Looking at manipulated stats won't help so I turn to you instead, to tell me your personal view on how bad things are. I want to know if someone you know may be in trouble because of the housing crisis. And how fast is the cost of living going up? Is inflation noticable when you go shopping? Have you noticed any difference with credit card loans yet?

I read a lot about people having a rough time right now but I'd like to know how wide spread this is. If you have personally noticed something that's out of the ordinary, please tell me.

I'm broke

I don't personally know anyone who is trouble because of the housing crisis.

Food prices and gas prices are noticably higher. Most people are cutting back on discretionary spending and travel. People are still buying beer, but they're buying cheaper beer.

The building trades are just now (in June) starting to get busy again. There's always a slow season in the winter, but it lasted longer than usual this year. Very few people are building new houses, but there are lots of people remodeling.

I don't notice any differences with credit cards.

I live in Ohio and supposedly Ohio is one of the worst hit states. The situation is greatly overexaggerated in the media.

Well sure I still buy beer...

everything is over exaggerated by the media

media aint exaggerating shit.

a developer i know used to be a multimillionaire. he is now no longer, and losing like 30k a month or something ridiculous after making tons of cuts. this is solely due to the recent housing situation.

my parents and brother took about a 40k hit on a house they bought before this shit but needed to sell during it.

a friend living in arizona has been trying to move back up here, but cannot because he owns a couple homes, and they wont sell reasonably.

my sister has a two year old minivan that runs just fine but bought a new car that gets better gas for the sole reason of gas.

think about it this way: most of americans live paycheck to paycheck, but now our overall expenses are increased. this fucks us in almost every way.

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history. it will hit the entire world hard too, but US the worst. oil demand continues to increase while supply decreases. this was not always evident due to other factors, but we are now at the point where it will not change. the ONLY option is in other methods of fuel and power, but those will take veeeeeeerrrry long to set up. our entire transportation system is oil based. converting to another base (most viable now is hydrogen, which is what it is actually now except the fact that oil is the packaging) will take sooooo much money and sooooo many years. this will likely fuck us.

my plan is to get rich over the next couple years so i dont have to put up with this garbage. this is going to be a very long issue because its an issue of forced energy conversion.

and this is only one side of it. the housing bubble or whatever i dont understand so i wont say anything else about it. afaik, some banks need to bite the bullet that they tried to shoot at consumers, and that will be the fix. i could be way off on that though.

I live in Michigan in the suburbs of Detroit and we are being hit pretty hard. In some way almost everyones job seems to be connected to the automobile industry. The auto industry is on hard times and it is trickling down and effecting a lot of people. Unemployment is high, there are just not a lot of jobs.

My dad spent all of last summer looking for a job after the place he worked at closed down (a company that packaged auto parts and had its contract dropped out on by ford).

A lot of auto companies are forcing older employees with higher salaries into retirement so two of my uncles live in constant unknowing of if they will have a job next week.

For a summer job I work at a grocery store at the fish counter, and because of gas prices and economic uncertainties people just are not spending as much as they use to on food. So I get bitched at by my managers for not being able to sell $20 a pound fish. They are also cutting hours for part time employees.

But personally I do have to take a step back and realize that I am better of than most people, I own my own car, I can afford go out and party with friends once in a while etc etc. But compared to three, four years ago things are tighter.

That is just stuff I have noticed personally, hope it helps.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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yup, that's pretty much what i have come to believe. I just wanted to know how people were affected on a personal level. Thanks for the responses.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

my plan is to get rich over the next couple years so i dont have to put up with this garbage.

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Just make sure you don't have all your savings in dollars. That might be disastrous.

Yeah, there's very little exaggeration going on about this.

Over past years my parents were paying all their bills and living fairly comfortably, able to save some money in the process. Last year and this year they're getting closer and closer to breaking even after everything is paid.

Ya gas prices have affected nearly everyone and nearly everything. I've heard people from other countries say how our gas isn't that expensive, which may be true, but its the sharp increases that are killing everyone. Around 2 years ago gas was like around $2/gal. and now its at $4 or more. And Americans commute a lot more than other countries I think. I know people that commute like 70 miles a day each way!! Used to pay like $150/week for gas now like $300! Thats $600/month taken from savings/bills/enjoyment.

And I blame the banks/mortgage companies for being very greedy and f***cking up the whole industry and lots of people in the process. Although, people bit off more than they could chew, which is their own fault.
But I don't think its the start of a depression and I'm hopefull the country will start to pull out of it by the end of the year *fingers crossed*.

God bless America :lol:

BTW these are the times that smart with a little money become wealthy people later in life. If I had extra cash I'd be investing as much as I can. Warren Buffet was once asked, how can the average American become wealthy through investing, and he said, "Be cautious when others are being greedy, but be greedy when others are being cautious."

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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Ummm no, it won't even come close to the great depression. Gas is still dirt cheap in the U.S. so stop all this whining. If people are broke then they need to get their ass to college and get a better job. It's every man for themselves, stop blaming someone else.

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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yup, that's pretty much what i have come to believe. I just wanted to know how people were affected on a personal level. Thanks for the responses.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

my plan is to get rich over the next couple years so i dont have to put up with this garbage.

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Just make sure you don't have all your savings in dollars. That might be disastrous.

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gold baybee.

also, i was sorta speaking out my ass about worst depression ever. doing a little research on the great depression and that was omgbad. however, IF alternative energy comes by slow and hard then it will spark the worst ever no doubt.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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yup, that's pretty much what i have come to believe. I just wanted to know how people were affected on a personal level. Thanks for the responses.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

my plan is to get rich over the next couple years so i dont have to put up with this garbage.

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Just make sure you don't have all your savings in dollars. That might be disastrous.

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gold baybee.

also, i was sorta speaking out my ass about worst depression ever. doing a little research on the great depression and that was omgbad. however, IF alternative energy comes by slow and hard then it will spark the worst ever no doubt.

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We have the technology...a depression might be the spark towards major social change regarding conservation

most americans dont know how to manage money, and are bad at managing debt, which is why they are having issues making ends meet. so yes consumer confidence isn't the greatest, as for the economy, our gdp increased in the first quarter. in other words, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States increased. That doesn't happen in a depression. We aren't in a depression. And, we aren't really in a recession. Americans haven't stopped spending money, they have just switched what they spend their money on. Less entertainment, material goods; more on basic necessities and debts incurred from uninformed decision making when banks were "LIKE OMG HERE HAVE A LOAN I DONT CARE WHAT YOUR CREDIT IS..........but the interest rate is variable, or only fixed for x months/years"

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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Ummm no, it won't even come close to the great depression. Gas is still dirt cheap in the U.S. so stop all this whining. If people are broke then they need to get their ass to college and get a better job. It's every man for themselves, stop blaming someone else.

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youre thinking short and narrow when you should be thinking long and wide. i did not say this IS, but this could be the beginning of. could be a decade or half a dozen decades from now, but it is definitely inevitable if energy supply does not replenish.

gas may be dirt cheap now (its not, it used to be), but what about when its 20$, 50$, 150$ a gallon? it will eventually be if we rely on oil long enough. also, prices at the pump are not the entire picture. they're actually a smaller part of the picture affected by oil crisis. since just about everything that transports, and all large machines rely on oil, prices of everything will skyrocket.

whats it gonna be like when gas is 20$ a gallon at pump, video games are 100$ USD, bananas are 3$ a pound, etc?

comparing to what this can become to the great depression is a little off, though because they are a little different in causes and solutions.

also dude, your last two sentences are mega naive. if somebody's broke, they do not have the money or time to go to college, as well as college is not the cure all it used to be. not to mention that as prices go up jobs will decrease.

you last sentence is a strawman of economy, for starters. it also sorta represents the tragedy of the commons. it is not black and white as you say.

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Originally Posted by bigred

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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yup, that's pretty much what i have come to believe. I just wanted to know how people were affected on a personal level. Thanks for the responses.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

my plan is to get rich over the next couple years so i dont have to put up with this garbage.

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Just make sure you don't have all your savings in dollars. That might be disastrous.

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gold baybee.

also, i was sorta speaking out my ass about worst depression ever. doing a little research on the great depression and that was omgbad. however, IF alternative energy comes by slow and hard then it will spark the worst ever no doubt.

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We have the technology...a depression might be the spark towards major social change regarding conservation

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it definitely would be. and yes and no we have the technology. my understanding here is kinda rudimentary so i cant lay it out for certain, but there seem to be problems with all our technologies. the truly good technologies, like nuclear fusion and maybe artificial photosynthesis are out of our reach currently. ones like solar power are just not that efficient. yes there is a tons of sun, but due to cycles wed need to store that all in batteries, and batteries are just not that viable with our technology at this point.

even then, the problem isn't so much technology, but conversion. oil companies basically shot us in the foot by making oil our energy packing because converting to other viable sources is way hard then. if for example everything ran on natural gas then we could easily convert to other things like hydrogen.

fat chance at seeing more nuclear plants. we so should but we wont. tech is much better now to the point that waste has a half life of just a few years. as far as cars go we should all do hybrids, which we will soon enough. hybrids will get very gas efficient as the years go by. but that still leaves tremendous problems with larger machines, like ones that build stuff. i dont even know if its possible to build a hybrid tractor.

this is a very weird time and will continue to be for a while. it is likely that the economy will not plummet like it has in the past, but it also will not flourish for a while.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this is a very weird time and will continue to be for a while. it is likely that the economy will not plummet like it has in the past, but it also will not flourish for a while.

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I agree. Things will either be bad or they will be good. Or they will stay the same.

When I bought my House in 2000, Home Heating Oil was .89cents a gallon. Now Its $4.69 a gallon. But just last winter it was 2.79 a gallon.
Multiplied by 800 gallons a year
That is a HUGE difference. So instead of the thermostat at 65degF this winter it maybe 62degF or even less.

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Originally Posted by frosst

most americans dont know how to manage money, and are bad at managing debt, which is why they are having issues making ends meet. so yes consumer confidence isn't the greatest, as for the economy, our gdp increased in the first quarter. in other words, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States increased. That doesn't happen in a depression. We aren't in a depression. And, we aren't really in a recession. Americans haven't stopped spending money, they have just switched what they spend their money on. Less entertainment, material goods; more on basic necessities and debts incurred from uninformed decision making when banks were "LIKE OMG HERE HAVE A LOAN I DONT CARE WHAT YOUR CREDIT IS..........but the interest rate is variable, or only fixed for x months/years"

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You hit the nail right on the head!

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

this could easily be the beginning of the worst depression in our nations history.

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Ummm no, it won't even come close to the great depression. Gas is still dirt cheap in the U.S. so stop all this whining. If people are broke then they need to get their ass to college and get a better job. It's every man for themselves, stop blaming someone else.

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youre thinking short and narrow when you should be thinking long and wide. i did not say this IS, but this could be the beginning of. could be a decade or half a dozen decades from now, but it is definitely inevitable if energy supply does not replenish.

gas may be dirt cheap now (its not, it used to be), but what about when its 20$, 50$, 150$ a gallon? it will eventually be if we rely on oil long enough. also, prices at the pump are not the entire picture. they're actually a smaller part of the picture affected by oil crisis. since just about everything that transports, and all large machines rely on oil, prices of everything will skyrocket.

whats it gonna be like when gas is 20$ a gallon at pump, video games are 100$ USD, bananas are 3$ a pound, etc?

comparing to what this can become to the great depression is a little off, though because they are a little different in causes and solutions.

also dude, your last two sentences are mega naive. if somebody's broke, they do not have the money or time to go to college, as well as college is not the cure all it used to be. not to mention that as prices go up jobs will decrease.

you last sentence is a strawman of economy, for starters. it also sorta represents the tragedy of the commons. it is not black and white as you say.

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Dude, gas is still cheap here. It's $9.40 gallon in Germany currently and has been $7-8 in Europe for the last 8 yrs. Gas prices will level off in good time, we are currently building a refinery here in the U.S. to help decrease the price a little. We also have pleny of people working on alternative energy sources.

If someone is broke that is not my fault nor others. It's not my problem they made poor decisions when they were younger but most "can" fix it if they really want to. People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it. People spend too much time complaining instead of fixing the problem themselves. My last sentence in the quote above is the difference between the elephants and the donkeys.

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Originally Posted by Smacktard

I agree. Things will either be bad or they will be good. Or they will stay the same.

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politician?

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

also, i was sorta speaking out my ass about worst depression ever. doing a little research on the great depression and that was omgbad.

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I wasn't.. Inflation is just getting started, houses have a long way down and credit cards are the next bubble.

to give an example of american's warped sense of needs vs wants, i've asked a few of the people i work with, who have been bitching about how they have to cut back on their spending and can't get x or y anymore and have to settle for z, if they still have cable/satellite. they look at me like i'm crazy and say "of course". so i don't really have that much sympathy for most of these people.

Hmmmm, How I cut back:

got rid of Netflix video service saving $10 a month
Bring Lunch to work everyday saving $10/15 a day
Quit drinking for 8 months saving SHITLOAD of $$$$
Switch all light bulbs in my house to CFL's saving $20 a month on the electric bill
Planted a garden to save $$ and eat better
Turned water heater down to 110 deg, saving $
Less eating out at night.
Only have Basic/basic/ cable
Minimum phone services.

I cut all this shit and then my wife goes out and bought a Horse, so guess what? I'm Fuked.

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Originally Posted by mrhappy333

I cut all this shit and then my wife goes out and bought a Horse, so guess what? I'm Fuked.

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Infinity gas mileage FTW! :highfive:

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

as far as cars go we should all do hybrids, which we will soon enough. hybrids will get very gas efficient as the years go by.

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Hybrids are so far from the solution for personal transport it's ridiculous.

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Dude, gas is still cheap here. It's $9.40 gallon in Germany currently and has been $7-8 in Europe for the last 8 yrs.

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you cannot compare US and europe gas for a number of reasons. 1. when we talk about oil we are talking global. 2. many, if not all, of the areas with higher gas prices than US also have higher taxes, and possibly other things, on gas, and lower taxes in other arenas. also, US geography requires tonssss more oil consumption than pretty much all other places (except maybe canada).

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Gas prices will level off in good time, we are currently building a refinery here in the U.S. to help decrease the price a little.

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yay for a .25$ reduction in oil, peak production hitting in like 2020, and total production only supplying US for a couple years. there has been tremendous propaganda about how much 'clean' oil we have left and how much it costs to procure it. the more we focus on oil the more we fuck our children and ourselves when we are old.

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We also have pleny of people working on alternative energy sources.

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we actually have less than you'd think. funding is and has been for a long while way low for the sciences. shit cancer would probable be cured already if instead of wars US govt funded science.

your statement is a great example of a folly in how humans think about relatively unknown issues. start hammering out details and you'll see how its not cut and dry. who's plenty of people, what alternative energies, how viable are they, what kind of timeline, tons of other shit? do you think we will magically develop some obscure technology that will fix our problems? a ton of energy sources are just not viable for what we need, and we are not really discovering new sources, we are trying to figure out how to understand already postulated theories.

many 'alternative' sources we've had for a while have not been produced in mass because they're just not that good. most people think we can get on solar power, wind power, some magical geothermal discovery, some magical spontaneous cold fusion discovery, and a bunch of other unnamed shit that is just not a solution. even if we can, thats not the total fix. it costs shittons of money to make the conversion. picture everything we have that runs on oil replaced. we dont have this kind of money. itll happen, somebodys gonna pay out the ass and its gonna be you and i.

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If someone is broke that is not my fault nor others. It's not my problem they made poor decisions when they were younger but most "can" fix it if they really want to.

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this is not how things work. every job is important, but not every job pays well. should high school teachers and garbage men and police officers all get different jobs because they just dont make much? how is it their fault when the economy fucks them? you are addressing a minority and imposing it upon the majority.

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People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it. People spend too much time complaining instead of fixing the problem themselves. My last sentence in the quote above is the difference between the elephants and the donkeys.

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im sure you've heard of time? not to mention the fact that college does not cure like it used to.

sometimes people complain too much, sometimes not. you are imposing a formulaic explanation on a non-formulaic subject.

and please tell me youre not making an appeal to something political.

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

as far as cars go we should all do hybrids, which we will soon enough. hybrids will get very gas efficient as the years go by.

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Hybrids are so far from the solution for personal transport it's ridiculous.

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depending on scope, i may agree.

why do you say?

hybrids will get much better over the years, and the longer we rely on oil the better they become. they are however not a long long term solution.

I feel like there are a few simple things the government or companies could do to improve the economy.

*Automakers in America have been fighting against fuel efficiency. Why? Because most American cars have such pitiful fuel mileage they can not be sold in some countries for example China which has a requirement of 41mpg for light cars and 21mpg for trucks. Automaker sales are slumping and they are bitching about imported cars. If they increased fuel efficiency they could open up new markets to sell in.

*Unemployment is really high. The electricity produced to power peoples homes causes undesired effects. Solution: Set up federally funded program to install solar panels in peoples homes. People get employment and it cuts down on energy.

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

as far as cars go we should all do hybrids, which we will soon enough. hybrids will get very gas efficient as the years go by.

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Hybrids are so far from the solution for personal transport it's ridiculous.

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I'm sorry G, but when I'm reading a nice discussion where everybody is addressing their posts and making an argument for each post, and then you post this broad spectrum blanket statement with absolutely nothing written down to explain your point kinda makes you sound like a douchebag.
and I know you arent a douchebag, so dont think im attacking you personally or anything.

Continue discussing, i like reading.

-Chris

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Originally Posted by Sykedupp

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

as far as cars go we should all do hybrids, which we will soon enough. hybrids will get very gas efficient as the years go by.

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Hybrids are so far from the solution for personal transport it's ridiculous.

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I'm sorry G, but when I'm reading a nice discussion where everybody is addressing their posts and making an argument for each post, and then you post this broad spectrum blanket statement with absolutely nothing written down to explain your point kinda makes you sound like a douchebag.
and I know you arent a douchebag, so dont think im attacking you personally or anything.

Continue discussing, i like reading.

-Chris

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The post I am typing right now is still second in line behind this quoted post in the category entitled: "Least insightful post within thread."

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Dude, gas is still cheap here. It's $9.40 gallon in Germany currently and has been $7-8 in Europe for the last 8 yrs.

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you cannot compare US and europe gas for a number of reasons. 1. when we talk about oil we are talking global. 2. many, if not all, of the areas with higher gas prices than US also have higher taxes, and possibly other things, on gas, and lower taxes in other arenas. also, US geography requires tonssss more oil consumption than pretty much all other places (except maybe canada).

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Gas prices will level off in good time, we are currently building a refinery here in the U.S. to help decrease the price a little.

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yay for a .25$ reduction in oil, peak production hitting in like 2020, and total production only supplying US for a couple years. there has been tremendous propaganda about how much 'clean' oil we have left and how much it costs to procure it. the more we focus on oil the more we fuck our children and ourselves when we are old.

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We also have pleny of people working on alternative energy sources.

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we actually have less than you'd think. funding is and has been for a long while way low for the sciences. shit cancer would probable be cured already if instead of wars US govt funded science.

your statement is a great example of a folly in how humans think about relatively unknown issues. start hammering out details and you'll see how its not cut and dry. who's plenty of people, what alternative energies, how viable are they, what kind of timeline, tons of other shit? do you think we will magically develop some obscure technology that will fix our problems? a ton of energy sources are just not viable for what we need, and we are not really discovering new sources, we are trying to figure out how to understand already postulated theories.

many 'alternative' sources we've had for a while have not been produced in mass because they're just not that good. most people think we can get on solar power, wind power, some magical geothermal discovery, some magical spontaneous cold fusion discovery, and a bunch of other unnamed shit that is just not a solution. even if we can, thats not the total fix. it costs shittons of money to make the conversion. picture everything we have that runs on oil replaced. we dont have this kind of money. itll happen, somebodys gonna pay out the ass and its gonna be you and i.

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If someone is broke that is not my fault nor others. It's not my problem they made poor decisions when they were younger but most "can" fix it if they really want to.

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this is not how things work. every job is important, but not every job pays well. should high school teachers and garbage men and police officers all get different jobs because they just dont make much? how is it their fault when the economy fucks them? you are addressing a minority and imposing it upon the majority.

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People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it. People spend too much time complaining instead of fixing the problem themselves. My last sentence in the quote above is the difference between the elephants and the donkeys.

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im sure you've heard of time? not to mention the fact that college does not cure like it used to.

sometimes people complain too much, sometimes not. you are imposing a formulaic explanation on a non-formulaic subject.

and please tell me youre not making an appeal to something political.

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Of course I can compare prices in the U.S. vs the world. This is what we are talking about. We have it cheap rather you believe it or not. If inflation would have increased like the other countries in the world it would have been $4/gallon 8 yrs ago.

India and China are the main reason for the high gas prices. The demand increased but they are not pumping more gas to account for it. Classic supply vs demand. Prices will level off and life will go on.

Of course it's gonna take 20 yrs to finalize a new energy source, people cannot expect it to happen overnight. Japan just finished making their first car that runs on water and it will be sold for $19,000. I don't expect to see it for another 10yrs or so but we are making progress.

As far as careers go, most people should know what the pay is before going into that field. Everyone knows that teachers make crap for pay but the pension 401K plan they get is awesome. Like I said, their choices are on them. People have plenty of time to go take one class after work. It's usually only 2 three hour classes per week. If they cannot find the time then they are not trying hard enough to make it work and they lack motivation. A college degree sure is better than a HS diploma, yea i know plenty of people with degrees working $12 customer service jobs but that is because they majored in something worthless or have no motivation to work hard and move up the ladder.

If you wanna blame someone for high gas prices blame and Democrats. They are the ones who make it near impossible to get permits to build refineries to make our gas much cheaper. Republicans = big business = bigger profits and more opportunities for everyone, well at least most.

you are not comprehending my posts and are repeating yourself.

I am comprehending you fine. Do you not think people should fix their own issues when the resources are out there to do so?

[quote="wufwugy"]

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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If someone is broke that is not my fault nor others. It's not my problem they made poor decisions when they were younger but most "can" fix it if they really want to.

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this is not how things work. every job is important, but not every job pays well. should high school teachers and garbage men and police officers all get different jobs because they just dont make much? how is it their fault when the economy fucks them? you are addressing a minority and imposing it upon the majority.

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wait, what? last time i checked we were in a capitalist society, in which people were free to pursue their own ways to create a viable living. So, if hs teachers, garbage men, and police officers are bitching about their low paying job, then yes they should go get another job. It's their fault because they knowingly choose to work that occupation knowing it's not the highest paying (although garbage men shouldn't be in the same category because they're actually highly paid). If we're really going to break this down simply, supply and demand (the foundation for capitalism) would take care of this.....i.e. if half a city's police force were to get higher education and a better job, a void would be created which would need to be filled. It would be filled one of two ways: either others would replace the ex officers, making the same wage, or no one would initially fill the positions. which would result in changes made in the compensation given. As for the new employees, their previous jobs would get the same treatment. So how is the economy the one screwing them?

[quote="wufwugy"]

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it. People spend too much time complaining instead of fixing the problem themselves. My last sentence in the quote above is the difference between the elephants and the donkeys.

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im sure you've heard of time? not to mention the fact that college does not cure like it used to.

sometimes people complain too much, sometimes not. you are imposing a formulaic explanation on a non-formulaic subject.

and please tell me youre not making an appeal to something political.

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This is a little different. The truth is a college diploma, in of itself, is no longer a guaranteed ride to a great job, after all they're being handed out like hs diplomas are now. But, seeking the right degree can still give someone a better oppurtunity than would be possible without that education. If you pay attention to the news, the jobs that are being cut here are mainly manufacturing and low clerical jobs. Jobs that don't require much education. How many times have you heard there was a decline in medical professions? The last time I checked, health care jobs are expected to climb for the next 5 or so years with all the baby boomers retiring.

nm last post, pythonic beat me to it. damn poker interfering with my commune time

lol, you made some nice points though frosst.

My wife is in school and we are doing fine right now. We are frugal with our money, at least for the time being while she's in school, so I'm sure that's why. When she gets finished she will have a guaranteed three-year contract, and because she's a nurse she will always be in demand. I am a teacher and although I don't rake in the big bucks we will probably always be okay as far as money goes...

I do have a few friends that are hitting semi-rock-bottom right now, though, if not total-rock-bottom. Some of these friends are good people that had really great jobs a year or two ago and now they are barely living month to month (of course in the houses that are bigger than they need, SUVs they're driving, etc, but not all of them are that way...).

Still, our country is in it's biggest downswing since the Great Depression (1929-1941). In the 1920's people were living outside of their means like you wouldn't believe, then the housing market started to suck, then everything got worse because of that, then the depression happened. Even though it's a totally different time period, you can draw a lot of parallels from the 1920's to today's situation.

I personally think the worst is yet to come, but I hope not. I hope we swing out of this, but it's going to be ridiculously tough to do so. Somebody made the comment earlier, "Well, people are just buying what they need to survive now and that's all, and that's a good thing!" What about stores that sell stuff we don't need but we buy it anyway (like nicer clothes, jewelry, cosmetics, etc)? What about restaurants that people no longer go to (we don't need to eat at TGIFriday's every week, lets eat bologna and cheese sandwiches at home)? What happens to those businesses, and more importantly, those people that have jobs in those businesses?

At first they start getting their hours reduced, then they get laid off......then *they* only have money for the essentials, if they have it at all. Then what about the money that they used to spend at stores where they didn't really need the stuff, and at restaurants they really didn't need to eat at? They keep it! Cycle keeps going and going and going......and you get my point.

This doesn't even cover the American industries (those that are still left, and there ain't many!) and the hits they're taking......especially the car industry, just look at Ford as an example.

To be honest I think we're fucked and we just don't realize it yet. I guess we'll see how things are going in a few years...




EDIT: Also, I'm not guaranteed a job or anything because I'm a teacher...the government actually didn't have enough money for teachers during the depression at some points and schools totally shut down. I'm not saying we're going to get to that point, but I'll be damned if history hasn't repeated itself before a few times over.......so I'm a bit worried about how things are looking right now.

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Originally Posted by allabout

And I blame the banks/mortgage companies for being very greedy and f***cking up the whole industry and lots of people in the process.

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nobody going to blame an ill-conceived war yet ?

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Originally Posted by daven

Quote:

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Originally Posted by allabout

And I blame the banks/mortgage companies for being very greedy and f***cking up the whole industry and lots of people in the process.

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nobody going to blame an ill-conceived war yet ?

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Didn't help.

Im fine with the war because we need to help Iraq take care of itself. If we left now it would just happen all over again. However I'm not alright with all the aid we are giving to other countries.

The war with Iraq was based on bullshit intelligence and leftover fears from 9/11 for an ultimate agenda that we (thought but we did but we) didn't understand then and we don't understand now.



The current shitty-ness of the economy was not caused by the Iraq War. As I said, it didn't help the matter out, but it didn't cause it. Please don't get off topic here people and turn this into OMFG IRAQ.



Starbucks shutting down 600 stores.
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.c...a-bitter-plan/

To get back on topic, I was just reading CNN.com a few minutes ago and I saw this. 600 Starbucks stores shutting down. Why, because people are cutting out things that aren't essential. Well, these 600 stores had employees that thought their money was essential, and now it's gone.

Fuck I know it's not the end of the world when a coffee store does this, but hundreds (if not thousands) of companies are doing this same thing...The sky isn't falling......................is it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

I am comprehending you fine. Do you not think people should fix their own issues when the resources are out there to do so?

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this is why i said you're not comprehending me. its not about fixing our own issues exclusively, and the resources are not necessarily out there. i am not referring to now, present day. i am referring to, as i have been through the entire thread, to the course of energy supply and demand. we rely almost completely on oil, and you are kidding yourself if you think that we are not dealing with finite resources cost-effectively viable.

you know how if you look at a winning player's poker graph you see over the short term a line that rockets up and down, but over the long term a line that goes up? well this is how it is with fossil fuels. over the short term, supply and demand can be affected by factors other than our absolute resources, but over the long term, it is affected by that wholly. prices are going up and rapidly, and they will continue to incline until they become so expensive that the companies cannot sell any. if by this time we rely on oil to much of the degree that we do now then we will plummet into unfathomable depression. this will likely not happen, but definitely closer than anybody is willing to admit. we're dealing with economic issues like supply/demand and cost/value. you are not referring to global economic issues, but personal issues and neglecting the rest.

i say you are not comprehending my posts because you are neglecting these points. the point that prices are rising fast and will continue. i repeat myself, what are we going to do when oil is twice or three times as expensive? ill address more in a later post

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Originally Posted by frosst

wait, what? last time i checked we were in a capitalist society, in which people were free to pursue their own ways to create a viable living. So, if hs teachers, garbage men, and police officers are bitching about their low paying job, then yes they should go get another job. It's their fault because they knowingly choose to work that occupation knowing it's not the highest paying (although garbage men shouldn't be in the same category because they're actually highly paid). If we're really going to break this down simply, supply and demand (the foundation for capitalism) would take care of this.....i.e. if half a city's police force were to get higher education and a better job, a void would be created which would need to be filled. It would be filled one of two ways: either others would replace the ex officers, making the same wage, or no one would initially fill the positions. which would result in changes made in the compensation given. As for the new employees, their previous jobs would get the same treatment. So how is the economy the one screwing them?

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please do not take offense to what im about to say.

your understanding of this issue is completely wrong. like pyth, you are looking at this very narrow. you are looking at individuals, when you should be looking at society.

a society has many many positions that must be filled for it to remain a society. a society needs policemen, garbage men, teachers, etc. if these positions do not provide enough finances for the humans who are performing these duties to maintain these duties then the society will not have the duties performed, and the society crumbles.

this is very simple stuff. when cost of living rises while supply of living expenses stays same then cost of living begins to rise exponentially while supply of living expenses begins to decrease. put succinctly: the more unemployment there is, the quicker unemployment develops. this is because wherever money is spent there is a job receiving this. when less money is spent then there will be fewer jobs due to not receiving enough money. this is all based on a widespread spending of money. it is different when we spend all our money on one thing (oil) and it goes to one company. it is not like this now, but it is becoming more and more like it faster and faster than it has for a long time, and scientific projections show that it will continue.

Quote:

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This is a little different. The truth is a college diploma, in of itself, is no longer a guaranteed ride to a great job, after all they're being handed out like hs diplomas are now. But, seeking the right degree can still give someone a better oppurtunity than would be possible without that education. If you pay attention to the news, the jobs that are being cut here are mainly manufacturing and low clerical jobs. Jobs that don't require much education. How many times have you heard there was a decline in medical professions? The last time I checked, health care jobs are expected to climb for the next 5 or so years with all the baby boomers retiring.

---

again, not addressing the issue. all jobs are needed, just because one person can move on doesn't mean his place wont be taken.

but thats beside the point. you are again thinking short and narrow. AT FIRST the jobs being lost are low clerical and manufacturing jobs, but as those decline so do ALL others. who do you think pays for doctor visits and medicine? are lowly workers somehow immune to sickness? if lowly workers are unemployed how many dentists do you think will remain in business? this flies all the way to every other profession in the country. the govt is even making less money since its citizens aren't making as much and paying less in taxes.

if you wanna watch an excellent movie that can express a few of these points in an indirect way, watch Cinderella Man. one of the best movies ever made, and it happens to be timed during the great depression.

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Im fine with the war because we need to help Iraq take care of itself. If we left now it would just happen all over again. However I'm not alright with all the aid we are giving to other countries.

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its kinda sad, but this is a fucked if we do fucked if we dont situation.

take the movie Charlie Wilsons War for example: people were being slaughtered so charlie wilson got the US people to fund a war against those peoples' enemies. well that saves some of those people from being slaughtered, but it causes a number of other problems including US domestic economic issues. funding war is extremely fucking expensive. in fact, war is the most expensive thing in existence. SOMEBODY has to pay for it, and it ends up being you and me.

this is a verrrrrrry complicated issue. on the one hand, the duty of the US is to the US, but on the other hand it just seems wrong and regressive to not expend some kind of sacrifice for non-US.

i disagree completely that the US should be in iraq because it is not a US issue. it is, however, a global issue. if it was the UN in iraq that would be way different. we would be logically pursuing the goal of liberating them because it is a global human issue, and US wouldn't be paying for it exclusively. in this scenario, because its the US in there and not some conglomeration of nations, the correct move is for US to pull out because US is fucking her first and foremost duty, fucking her citizens.

put succinctly: yes the world needs policing just like small nations need policing, but it is not up to the US to police the world. it is up to the US to provide for her citizens. this is CLEARLY not happening when we are policing the world beyond our means.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Im fine with the war because we need to help Iraq take care of itself. If we left now it would just happen all over again. However I'm not alright with all the aid we are giving to other countries.

---

its kinda sad, but this is a fucked if we do fucked if we dont situation.

take the movie Charlie Wilsons War for example: people were being slaughtered so charlie wilson got the US people to fund a war against those peoples' enemies. well that saves some of those people from being slaughtered, but it causes a number of other problems including US domestic economic issues. funding war is extremely fucking expensive. in fact, war is the most expensive thing in existence. SOMEBODY has to pay for it, and it ends up being you and me.

this is a verrrrrrry complicated issue. on the one hand, the duty of the US is to the US, but on the other hand it just seems wrong and regressive to not expend some kind of sacrifice for non-US.

i disagree completely that the US should be in iraq because it is not a US issue. it is, however, a global issue. if it was the UN in iraq that would be way different. we would be logically pursuing the goal of liberating them because it is a global human issue, and US wouldn't be paying for it exclusively. in this scenario, because its the US in there and not some conglomeration of nations, the correct move is for US to pull out because US is fucking her first and foremost duty, fucking her citizens.

put succinctly: yes the world needs policing just like small nations need policing, but it is not up to the US to police the world. it is up to the US to provide for her citizens. this is CLEARLY not happening when we are policing the world beyond our means.

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AMERICA, F*** YA! WE'RE HERE TO SAVE THE MUTHERF***N DAY YA!

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Originally Posted by UG

Starbucks shutting down 600 stores.
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.c...a-bitter-plan/.

To get back on topic, I was just reading CNN.com a few minutes ago and I saw this. 600 Starbucks stores shutting down. Why, because people are cutting out things that aren't essential. Well, these 600 stores had employees that thought their money was essential, and now it's gone. .

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Good, people don't need to be spending $4 on coffee anyways and it's about time people got there values straight. I don't think those employees laid off will have any problem finding a new job at some other fast food restaurant because of the high turnover.

There were mass layoffs in 2000 as well, the world will go on.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

I am comprehending you fine. Do you not think people should fix their own issues when the resources are out there to do so?

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this is why i said you're not comprehending me. its not about fixing our own issues exclusively, and the resources are not necessarily out there. i am not referring to now, present day. i am referring to, as i have been through the entire thread, to the course of energy supply and demand. we rely almost completely on oil, and you are kidding yourself if you think that we are not dealing with finite resources cost-effectively viable.

you know how if you look at a winning player's poker graph you see over the short term a line that rockets up and down, but over the long term a line that goes up? well this is how it is with fossil fuels. over the short term, supply and demand can be affected by factors other than our absolute resources, but over the long term, it is affected by that wholly. prices are going up and rapidly, and they will continue to incline until they become so expensive that the companies cannot sell any. if by this time we rely on oil to much of the degree that we do now then we will plummet into unfathomable depression. this will likely not happen, but definitely closer than anybody is willing to admit. we're dealing with economic issues like supply/demand and cost/value. you are not referring to global economic issues, but personal issues and neglecting the rest.

i say you are not comprehending my posts because you are neglecting these points. the point that prices are rising fast and will continue. i repeat myself, what are we going to do when oil is twice or three times as expensive? ill address more in a later post

---

I understand completely that our economy is oil driven. But I still stand by my point that gas is dirt cheap in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. The price per barrel will level out soon though, the price had to get to where it needs to be due to increased demand from China and India. In the meantme we have of options to reduce the price if we see fit. Add more refineries in the U.S. We can tap into our oil in Alaska which is like the 5th largest reserve in the world.

We must keep evolving like we have for the last 1000 yrs.

1. Increasing the supply should be the #1 goal right now since prices are sky rocketing because of the higher demand.

2. Find an alternative fuel before the oil runs dry

3. Employers need to let people work from home if the job can be done there. This will save money for both the employer and employee.

Now have you thought about how much more expensive alternative fuels would be and how many people in the oil business/gas stations would lose there jobs if we stray away from oil eventually? It works both ways you know.

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Why, because people are cutting out things that aren't essential. Well, these 600 stores had employees that thought their money was essential, and now it's gone.

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This is not why starbucks is closing those locations.

Edit: I'll be more specific. first those stores are an incredibly tiny % of all starbucks stores. Second those stores have been losing money for a LONG time, not just the last 6 months or so, which kind of shows it has nothing to do with the price of gas.

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

There were mass layoffs in 2000 as well, the world will go on.

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Here's the thing, you were due to have a pretty massive recession in 2000, but you didn't. Instead you postponed it for 8 years with inflationary monetary policy. However, this ultimately made things a lot worse.

The problem is that everyone dreads a recession, especially politcians. But it's during the boom period that the problems are piling up, and thus it's the boom periods that actually shuld be dreaded. A recession is simply the unraveling of the problems that's been brewing under the surface. It's like a hangover really. Everyone knows that a hangover feels bad. But they also know it's the partying that precedes the hangover that's actually causing the problem. The hangover is simply a neccesary cleansing period, and so is a recession.

A boom period occurs because the interest rates are too low. Interest rates are supposed to reflect the amount of savings in the economy. The higher the "supply" of savings is, the lower the rates are. However, since countries today have a central bank that indirectly sets the interest rates however it wishes, this is no longer true. When the interest rates are lower than market value, the market believes that the amount of savings are higher than they actually are. This leads to malinvestments and over-consumption. The only way to deal with this over-consumption is with a future period of under-consumption i.e. a recession.

During the end of the ninties the clinton administration created the foundation for the dot com bubble. In 2000 the bubble finally burst and this should've lead to a huge recession. Bush however, didn't really want to begin his presidency with a big recession, so instead he gave you the most aggresssive monetary policy ever pursued by the federal reserve. This was the beginning of a new bubble, the housing bubble. The biggest problem is, that the thing you experienced during the beginning of this decade, wasn't a recession. During every other recession in history, people have used it to pay back debt they shouldn't have taken on. However, as a result of the easy money during this recession, people actually took on more debt. I'll say that again. At the end of this recession US were in more debt than at the beginning. This has never ever happened before. Basically what this means is that the losses from the dot com bubble were sucked up in the new housing bubble. So what you are seeing now is kinda like two huge recessions piled up on top of eachother. This is going to be combined with an ever increasing cost of living and rising interest payments.

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they should go get another job. It's their fault

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:eh?:

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And I blame the banks/mortgage companies for being very greedy and f***cking up the whole industry and lots of people in the process.

nobody going to blame an ill-conceived war yet ?

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:eh?:

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cancer would probable be cured already if instead of wars US govt funded science.

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:o

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Automakers in America have been fighting against fuel efficiency

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:wall:
Come on, this is how you really think? Rly?

The only people who will get killed are those who are layed off who live pay check to pay check and those who took out 5yr or 10yr arms to buy their house. I have a 30 yr fixed at 5.25% and I couldn't be happier.

2_Thumbs_Up is fairly spot on.

We're in this situation primarily due to speculative excesses, and abusive lending practices combined with a deficient mass credit rating system that occurred during the 2002-2006 low interest rate period and manifested in the housing market.

In order to avoid mass bank failures due to the crash of the housing bubble, the Federal Reserve has been forced to pursue yet another aggressive monetary policy. Thus the devalued dollar combined with dramatically increased demand (primarily foreign for fuel, and alternative energy for food) has driven up food and gas prices sharply.
Add to that billions of dollars in hedge fund money fueling the increase in commodity futures and things are bubbling again, just in a different area.

Good and bad I guess - oil companies are raking in excessive profits - but now it's actually profitable for them to begin new exploration and drilling again, which it hasn't been so for many years. However, all that takes many years to play out...balance will be achieved again but continue to expect wild swings in the meantime.

As I'm sure you've read the situation we're in now compares as much/more to the late 70s than the late 20s, though there are similarities to both eras. In the 20s the government increased itself exponentially to deal with the depression. In the 70s/80s monetary policy was ridiculously constrictive and interest rates were through the roof.
In the 20s those regulating monetary policy were too slow to react. In the 70s America also had to deal with rising wages in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates.
We'll pull through again, but times are definitely tough - and likely to get tougher for another year or so, and are greatly exacerbated by encouraged poor credit decsisions on the part of consumers and lenders alike. That's where the biggest danger we face lies - large bank failures would be disastrous worldwide, and I expect there will be a few - most likely to be bailed out by the US government.

The government has already employed most of their available tools to address this issue - loose monetary policy, lower interest rates, tax rebate, targeted legislation...we're moving into a bit of a wait and see period now - those adjustments take a while to demonstrate themselves in the economy...if they've done enough, things will stabalize...if not, more will be done.

Interesting discussion!

-TheHorror

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

I am comprehending you fine. Do you not think people should fix their own issues when the resources are out there to do so?

---

this is why i said you're not comprehending me. its not about fixing our own issues exclusively, and the resources are not necessarily out there. i am not referring to now, present day. i am referring to, as i have been through the entire thread, to the course of energy supply and demand. we rely almost completely on oil, and you are kidding yourself if you think that we are not dealing with finite resources cost-effectively viable.

you know how if you look at a winning player's poker graph you see over the short term a line that rockets up and down, but over the long term a line that goes up? well this is how it is with fossil fuels. over the short term, supply and demand can be affected by factors other than our absolute resources, but over the long term, it is affected by that wholly. prices are going up and rapidly, and they will continue to incline until they become so expensive that the companies cannot sell any. if by this time we rely on oil to much of the degree that we do now then we will plummet into unfathomable depression. this will likely not happen, but definitely closer than anybody is willing to admit. we're dealing with economic issues like supply/demand and cost/value. you are not referring to global economic issues, but personal issues and neglecting the rest.

i say you are not comprehending my posts because you are neglecting these points. the point that prices are rising fast and will continue. i repeat myself, what are we going to do when oil is twice or three times as expensive? ill address more in a later post

---

I understand completely that our economy is oil driven. But I still stand by my point that gas is dirt cheap in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. The price per barrel will level out soon though, the price had to get to where it needs to be due to increased demand from China and India. In the meantme we have of options to reduce the price if we see fit. Add more refineries in the U.S. We can tap into our oil in Alaska which is like the 5th largest reserve in the world.

We must keep evolving like we have for the last 1000 yrs.

1. Increasing the supply should be the #1 goal right now since prices are sky rocketing because of the higher demand.

2. Find an alternative fuel before the oil runs dry

3. Employers need to let people work from home if the job can be done there. This will save money for both the employer and employee.

Now have you thought about how much more expensive alternative fuels would be and how many people in the oil business/gas stations would lose there jobs if we stray away from oil eventually? It works both ways you know.

---

re gas dirt cheap: you need to compare across the board. there are a number of reasons why gas in US is cheaper relative to other nations, yet why gas in US is hella expensive for US consumer. in other nations, you'll find that a ton of their taxes are added to the pump price, and their gas usage due to geography is way less. you cannot make such a simple comparison.

US reserves are not nearly as much as you think, and will not reduce prices by much at all. are you privy to information claiming otherwise?

prices will level out at many points just like in a poker graph, but they will continue to rise and rise just like in a poker graph. dont confuse the short term with long term. i hope you have noticed that what im referring to is not short term stuff but long term stuff. this is fantastic that its long term though since it gives us more time to alternate energies.

the jobs lost from switching from oil to something else will be itty bitty compared to jobs gained from the switch and from a better economy. when people have more money to spend they create more jobs.

also, prices leveling out will last only a short while because demand is rapidly increasing. thank china and india like you said

Bottom Line: Our gas is one of the cheapest in the world, other countries pay more tax and we do it different but I only care about the bottom line.

Everything goes up every year due to inflation.

If we wanna get gas cheaper then the supply must be increased.

I have nothing left to say.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Good, people don't need to be spending $4 on coffee anyways and it's about time people got there values straight. I don't think those employees laid off will have any problem finding a new job at some other fast food restaurant because of the high turnover.

There were mass layoffs in 2000 as well, the world will go on.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

Now have you thought about how much more expensive alternative fuels would be and how many people in the oil business/gas stations would lose there jobs if we stray away from oil eventually?

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

fuk gas. gimme wona dem japonees kars that don ran on wata.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

There were mass layoffs in 2000 as well, the world will go on.

---

Here's the thing, you were due to have a pretty massive recession in 2000, but you didn't. Instead you postponed it for 8 years with inflationary monetary policy. However, this ultimately made things a lot worse.

The problem is that everyone dreads a recession, especially politcians. But it's during the boom period that the problems are piling up, and thus it's the boom periods that actually shuld be dreaded. A recession is simply the unraveling of the problems that's been brewing under the surface. It's like a hangover really. Everyone knows that a hangover feels bad. But they also know it's the partying that precedes the hangover that's actually causing the problem. The hangover is simply a neccesary cleansing period, and so is a recession.

A boom period occurs because the interest rates are too low. Interest rates are supposed to reflect the amount of savings in the economy. The higher the "supply" of savings is, the lower the rates are. However, since countries today have a central bank that indirectly sets the interest rates however it wishes, this is no longer true. When the interest rates are lower than market value, the market believes that the amount of savings are higher than they actually are. This leads to malinvestments and over-consumption. The only way to deal with this over-consumption is with a future period of under-consumption i.e. a recession.

During the end of the ninties the clinton administration created the foundation for the dot com bubble. In 2000 the bubble finally burst and this should've lead to a huge recession. Bush however, didn't really want to begin his presidency with a big recession, so instead he gave you the most aggresssive monetary policy ever pursued by the federal reserve. This was the beginning of a new bubble, the housing bubble. The biggest problem is, that the thing you experienced during the beginning of this decade, wasn't a recession. During every other recession in history, people have used it to pay back debt they shouldn't have taken on. However, as a result of the easy money during this recession, people actually took on more debt. I'll say that again. At the end of this recession US were in more debt than at the beginning. This has never ever happened before. Basically what this means is that the losses from the dot com bubble were sucked up in the new housing bubble. So what you are seeing now is kinda like two huge recessions piled up on top of eachother. This is going to be combined with an ever increasing cost of living and rising interest payments.

---

i thought i said this already.......wait i did. just not in so many words

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"LIKE OMG HERE HAVE A LOAN I DONT CARE WHAT YOUR CREDIT IS..........but the interest rate is variable, or only fixed for x months/years"

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but if we really wanna talk about debt, paying back debt with US dollars is paying debt with debt. :roll: (sigh) i miss the gold standard........not that i was around when we went off it.....but still.

as for my view being too narrow, i only replied to the example you gave. You gave a specific example, I gave my reason why I felt that example was flawed. but to continue what i said, you're kinda backing my point. everyone is going to need a doctor, so that job isn't going anywhere. in fact, there's a chronic shortage in the workforce of most medical professions. in other words, there is available work, just a shortage of people qualified to fill those positions. that in my opinion is the biggest issue with our country. we're fighting becoming a post industrial society([urlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-industrial_society]definition[/url]).
but to give you FACTS

unemployment for may was only up 0.5% to an OMG 5.5%. yea we're almost to the depression. :roll:

look at the line graph where unemployment went DOWN for the past2 years and is only now just starting to rise

and as i said in my first post, our GDP went up in the first quarter of this year (i can only say for the first data because that is the most recent data available).

here's the proof for that

and if we're so fucked, why is the majority of countries we're giving money to reinvestinng that money back into US infrastructure? that wouldn't make much sense if we're going into a depression. A good example starts back in '06 with UAE acquiring our major ports. Also, the Chinese government buying up US debt. I don't feel like googling for links to those. Feel free to do it yourself. But, this has kinda turned into an uber thread hijack. the OP wanted to know if we were PERSONALLY noticing changes. To me, there has been no change in any of my spending. The only real complaint I've heard is about gas prices. So if you're coming from across the pond, you should be happy because our gas is so damn cheap to you!

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

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there are actually quite a few companies that practice tuition reinbursement.

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Originally Posted by frosst

i thought i said this already.......wait i did. just not in so many words

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"LIKE OMG HERE HAVE A LOAN I DONT CARE WHAT YOUR CREDIT IS..........but the interest rate is variable, or only fixed for x months/years"

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The thing is, you seem to be blaming the banks when it's the central bank who should have all the blame. The banks were just acting rationally based of the central planning from the federal reserve.

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Originally Posted by frosst

but if we really wanna talk about debt, paying back debt with US dollars is paying debt with debt. :roll: (sigh) i miss the gold standard........not that i was around when we went off it.....but still.

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Gold standard, no fractional reserve banking and no central bank.. Then the world would be a much better place.

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Originally Posted by frosst

unemployment for may was only up 0.5% to an OMG 5.5%. yea we're almost to the depression. :roll:

look at the line graph where unemployment went DOWN for the past2 years and is only now just starting to rise

and as i said in my first post, our GDP went up in the first quarter of this year (i can only say for the first data because that is the most recent data available).

here's the proof for that

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Figures lie and liars figure.

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Originally Posted by frosst

and if we're so fucked, why is the majority of countries we're giving money to reinvestinng that money back into US infrastructure? that wouldn't make much sense if we're going into a depression. A good example starts back in '06 with UAE acquiring our major ports. Also, the Chinese government buying up US debt. I don't feel like googling for links to those. Feel free to do it yourself. But, this has kinda turned into an uber thread hijack. the OP wanted to know if we were PERSONALLY noticing changes. To me, there has been no change in any of my spending. The only real complaint I've heard is about gas prices. So if you're coming from across the pond, you should be happy because our gas is so damn cheap to you!

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You are looking at it the wrong way. Foreigners aren't investing in america, they are buying up america. You are selling your farms and cows to buy milk. It's not like they are using new dollars in order to do it either. They are just getting rid of the dollars they already have. And since you don't produce nearly enough goods to make up for all the dollars in the world they buy up your infrastructure instead. What else are they supposed to do with their dollars?

And yeah, I know about china buying up US debt, but that is coming to an end as well.

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

I'm trying to get an objective understanding of the current economic situation in the US. Looking at manipulated stats won't help so I turn to you instead, to tell me your personal view on how bad things are. I want to know if someone you know may be in trouble because of the housing crisis. And how fast is the cost of living going up? Is inflation noticable when you go shopping? Have you noticed any difference with credit card loans yet?

I read a lot about people having a rough time right now but I'd like to know how wide spread this is. If you have personally noticed something that's out of the ordinary, please tell me.

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try shadowstats when i make a few more posts, i'll do a linky add the ususal world wide web and com

I'm actually blaming the consumer for not making good decisions. The banks didn't do anything wrong (on paper) because they were just creating ways to increase profit, although alot of the loan officers/mortgage brokers didn't fully explain how ARM mortgages worked. They just advertised the low payments at the beginning. But, like I said, that's on the consumer. As for the figures, lol, all I'm doing is presenting them to back my argument, which you're supposed to do if you're presenting a point of view right?

How is purchasing US assets not investing?

in·vest (ĭn-věst') Pronunciation Key
v. in·vest·ed, in·vest·ing, in·vests

v. tr.

1. To commit (money or capital) in order to gain a financial return
2.
1. To spend or devote for future advantage or benefit:

But why would they invest in a recessing economy? That doesn't make sense to buy companies that aren't doing well, or real estate that is going down in value, just because they have money to burn. You might need to reexamine this a little closer and see why they are choosing to put their money here vs somewhere else

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

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Because I did.

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Originally Posted by frosst

I'm actually blaming the consumer for not making good decisions. The banks didn't do anything wrong (on paper) because they were just creating ways to increase profit, although alot of the loan officers/mortgage brokers didn't fully explain how ARM mortgages worked. They just advertised the low payments at the beginning. But, like I said, that's on the consumer.

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Ok then, but the consumer were also fooled by false price signals. Also, alot of the house buyers didn't really take any risk. They were getting a house with no downpayment and paying interest that's pretty much as low as rent. Now, if they can't afford it anymore they'll just hand over the keys to the bank. There are like 5 years of supply of houses on the market so no one will be homeless. It's the banks that are in the real trouble, and these problems will spread to the tax payers.

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Originally Posted by frosst

As for the figures, lol, all I'm doing is presenting them to back my argument, which you're supposed to do if you're presenting a point of view right?

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My point was that government stats aren't exactly worth much right now. You have to remember that the governement has an agenda. The federal reserve needs to save face and thinks it can talk up the economy. It's also election year which surely plays a part in this as well. I don't know much about the umemploment stats but lets take the gdp growth. In order for the governement to come up with the number they have, they have to calculate with an annual inflation rate of 2.7%. From what I've heard and read (and this is partly why i started this thread) there is simply no way in hell that inflation is that low. Annual 2.7% inflation would be pretty much standard. Are the things you are seeing around you right now standard? If you meassure growth in terms of gold instead you'll notice that the economy actually shrunk.

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Originally Posted by frosst

How is purchasing US assets not investing?

in·vest (ĭn-věst') Pronunciation Key
v. in·vest·ed, in·vest·ing, in·vests

v. tr.

1. To commit (money or capital) in order to gain a financial return
2.
1. To spend or devote for future advantage or benefit:

But why would they invest in a recessing economy? That doesn't make sense to buy companies that aren't doing well, or real estate that is going down in value, just because they have money to burn. You might need to reexamine this a little closer and see why they are choosing to put their money here vs somewhere else

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There's a huge difference between acquiring new dollars and buying up assets as to buying up assets with dollars you already have. Foreigners want to get rid of their dollars. Some are smart and are buying other currencies and investing abroad. But ultimately to get the dollars back into the US someone has to buy US assets or products. Sure you may still call this investing, but it's still not good for US citizens. All it means is that profits that used to be earned by americans will go abroad instead.

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Originally Posted by frosst

I'm actually blaming the consumer for not making good decisions. The banks didn't do anything wrong (on paper) because they were just creating ways to increase profit, although alot of the loan officers/mortgage brokers didn't fully explain how ARM mortgages worked. They just advertised the low payments at the beginning. But, like I said, that's on the consumer.

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I wouldn't say the banks didn't do anything wrong on paper or otherwise. They're job is to increase profits, yes, but they're "investing", by taking risks (loaning money) for profit. So when they tell someone who has poor or no credit that "you can afford this house with an ARM", they are taking unnecessary risk without getting the rewards in return. In essense they were taking more risk for less interest (reward). That's a recipe for disaster IMO. But I totally agree that its caveat emptor, and I think its kinda crappy that the government is also looking for ways to bail these people out of bad loans.

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Originally Posted by frosst

But why would they invest in a recessing economy? That doesn't make sense to buy companies that aren't doing well, or real estate that is going down in value, just because they have money to burn.

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Distressed assets are always a good investment if you have a reaonable expectation that they will be worth more in the future. (see Warren Buffet). If I had the dough, I'd be buying US real estate like there's no tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

There's a huge difference between acquiring new dollars and buying up assets as to buying up assets with dollars you already have. Foreigners want to get rid of their dollars. Some are smart and are buying other currencies and investing abroad. But ultimately to get the dollars back into the US someone has to buy US assets or products. Sure you may still call this investing, but it's still not good for US citizens. All it means is that profits that used to be earned by americans will go abroad instead.

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In a global economy, wringing your hands about foreign investment in your country is pretty much nonsensical. Investment creates jobs which create wealth etc. (see Toyota)

Of interest:
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/mginews/...led_us_yet.asp

Currently, being a US resident and one who depends on myself to make a living, I would love to have some extra money right now, I'd be buying property left and right. The house I bought last year has dropped slightly in value but I bought it for probably 80% of it's value just 3 years ago... property values are down due to the abundance of houses on the market... so in about 5 years or so I stand to make a hefty amount...

My suggestion, if you have money to spend and are in the US... buy rental properties... good ones. They will increase in value in a few years and during the meantime your tenants can pay your mortgage... that is what I'm working on now... trying to get my down payment together on a couple...

As towards the economy in the U.S. - It isn't as good as the Reagan days but we aren't suffering. Gas is high, once the government wises up and allows more refinery building and drilling in certain areas, we'll be out of that mess. Unless these 'green' people push us further into regulations... Anyway, in my area if you want to work you can, there is unemployment but it is marginal, as in most areas I have visited. So there is not nearly the issue the media makes it out to be in my area at least.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

In a global economy, wringing your hands about foreign investment in your country is pretty much nonsensical. Investment creates jobs which create wealth etc. (see Toyota)

Of interest:
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/mginews/...led_us_yet.asp

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But this isn't really investments. It's just assets switching hands from americans to foreigners. I'm not really saying it's bad either. It's simply the result of bad monetary policy which has impoverished the US. Americans want to sell their assets and other americans are simply too broke to afford them, so the wealthier foreigners are buying it instead. However, anyone buying american assets right now is making a pretty bad deal, seeing how it will be way cheaper in a few years.

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Originally Posted by frosst

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

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there are actually quite a few companies that practice tuition reinbursement.

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But it's hardly "most".

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

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Originally Posted by Warpe

In a global economy, wringing your hands about foreign investment in your country is pretty much nonsensical. Investment creates jobs which create wealth etc. (see Toyota)

Of interest:
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/mginews/...led_us_yet.asp

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But this isn't really investments. It's just assets switching hands from americans to foreigners. I'm not really saying it's bad either. It's simply the result of bad monetary policy which has impoverished the US. Americans want to sell their assets and other americans are simply too broke to afford them, so the wealthier foreigners are buying it instead. However, anyone buying american assets right now is making a pretty bad deal, seeing how it will be way cheaper in a few years.

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yes, it is an investment. thats like saying buying a stock low and selling it high isn't an investment because it switched ownership. That's how investing works. you buy something from someone with the expectation it will increase in worth. And when it does, you hope to sell it to someone at a price that is profit to you. My point about foreigners investing, heavily, in american assets is that obviously they don't see our economy being in huge trouble. otherwise, why wouldn't they put their money in assets in their country, or another one?

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by frosst

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

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there are actually quite a few companies that practice tuition reinbursement.

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But it's hardly "most".

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I'd say that 90% of all publically traded companies do and that is a shit load of companies. So actually it is most.

btw that last post isn't an invitation on how investing for valuation is bad investing. It was just an example I was using to illustrate a point.........like the one about foreigners investing in our assets during a recession. Obv you guys see my point when you mentioned about buying distressed properties right now knowing it'll pay for itself later on. THAT WAS MY POINT. If things are about to be "OMG ITS DAPREZZION" they wouldn't be doing it. Do you think they made all that money by being stupid? oh and the banks aren't in trouble. money is their business. foreclosures have always been around. they knew those people were high risk. basically they purchased real estate on free money. the consumer bought it and paid 100% interest to the bank, got foreclosed on and now the bank owns the property, which it'll just resell.

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by frosst

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

People can go to college for free with most employers so I don't want to hear it.

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Ahahahaha what the fuck gives you that idea?

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there are actually quite a few companies that practice tuition reinbursement.

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But it's hardly "most".

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I'd say that 90% of all publically traded companies do and that is a shit load of companies. So actually it is most.

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It may be a great benefit but it is one that most people I know shy away from accepting, myself included. Tuition reimbursement at my organization is high, with them paying up to $3000 per year in tuition, which allows you to take about 1 1/2 college courses... so that for each year of college is about 8-9 classes or more, that leads to an incredibly long time to finish school... plus for each $3,000 you accept, you sign a contract to work at least 1 year with the company or pay it back in full.

This is similar to how it was at the last three places I worked that offered it.

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Originally Posted by Pythonic

I'd say that 90% of all publically traded companies do and that is a shit load of companies. So actually it is most.

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There are about 13 million companies in the US, but only about 7,000 publicly traded ones.

Regardless, supposedly about 85% of US companies with 20 employees or more offer "some form" of tuition reimbursement, but a lot of them (probably most?) don't even come close to covering the cost of getting a degree/certificate in any reasonable time-frame because of annual maximums, etc. Not to mention, for a lot of people in lower paying jobs, putting out the cash up-front for reimbursement later is often beyond their means.

Well I wasn't talking about all the gas stations and ma and pa shops out there. I never said you could get a degree super fast but it can be achieved. Mine was 85% covered by my work and that's pretty damn good I suppose.

They all have those online degrees now where you can get it even faster.

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Originally Posted by frosst

My point about foreigners investing, heavily, in american assets is that obviously they don't see our economy being in huge trouble. otherwise, why wouldn't they put their money in assets in their country, or another one?

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I said earlier that the smart investors are putting their money in their own country. The reason everyone isn't doing it is because everyone isn't smart. The dollar is historically low so people see that as a purchasing opportunity. What they don't look at is the fact that your government is still printing money like crazy, so there is absolutely no chance that the dollar will make a comeback. Anyone who wants to buy something in the US should wait a few years.

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Originally Posted by frosst

btw that last post isn't an invitation on how investing for valuation is bad investing. It was just an example I was using to illustrate a point.........like the one about foreigners investing in our assets during a recession. Obv you guys see my point when you mentioned about buying distressed properties right now knowing it'll pay for itself later on. THAT WAS MY POINT. If things are about to be "OMG ITS DAPREZZION" they wouldn't be doing it. Do you think they made all that money by being stupid? oh and the banks aren't in trouble. money is their business. foreclosures have always been around. they knew those people were high risk. basically they purchased real estate on free money. the consumer bought it and paid 100% interest to the bank, got foreclosed on and now the bank owns the property, which it'll just resell.

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The problem is that houses are still way overvalued. There are no buyers at todays price. The housing bubble was blown up for years and the prizes will fall for years as well. the banks are in horrible shape and you haven't seen nothing of it yet. This will spread to the US consumer which in turn will affect the entire service sector.

The National Debt is the biggest problem our economy faces in the long run... and its not even close

sort of related..

Bush Tours America To Survey Damage Caused By His Presidency
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aEURwsrUSQ

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

sort of related..

Bush Tours America To Survey Damage Caused By His Presidency
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aEURwsrUSQ

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ty, LOL