Betting Baseball - Method I use has worked in the past.

My betting agreement with my Las Vegas client does not include betting on baseball so he says I am free to post my thoughts on betting on baseball. In this thread I will go over the details on how I bet on baseball with full details on the method I have used in the past. It is a method / strategy that has generated me solid profits in the past. I will prepare it on a word file and post it on this thread about a week before the MLB season starts. I will be setting aside a $10,000 bankroll to accomodate my bets for this betting strategy. Check back in near the end of March. Later, HockeyBoy.

The system / method I use to bet on baseball is a strategy that involves betting against the best high profile teams when they are the favorite and betting with them when they are the underdog. The amount of the bet depends on the odds as well as previous bets made against / for that team. Once you have established your starting bet size this system is relatively easy to follow. I have set aside $10,000 for this system and my betting size begins at 1% of my total bankroll. Thus my starting bet size will be $100.

The teams I have chosen to bet against / for using this system are: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets. Generally speaking, because these teams are quality high profile teams that the public tends to bet on more heavily than other teams, the odds we will be offered when picking underdogs against them will be a little more favorable than usual.

On the first day of the regular season I will be looking at the lines offered on these teams and their opponents and then bet accordingly. I will be using the following sportsbooks: Pinnacle, Carib and Matchbook. I will look at all three sportsbooks and make a bet at whichever site offers me the best odds on the team I am selecting. In cases when two of these teams play against each other, there is a slight alteration to this system. I will go over that alteration once it actually happens when the regular season starts.

For the first game that each of these teams play I will bet $100 against / with them depending on which team is the underdog as long as the underdog is +101 to +149. If the underdog is +150 to +199 I bet $10 less ($90). If the underdog is +200 to +249 I bet $20 less ($80). If the underdog is +250 to +299 I bet $30 less ($70). If the underdog is +300 to +399 I bet $40 less ($60). If the underdog is +400 or more I bet $50 less ($50)

As an example if on the first day of the regular season you had the following lines:

Boston –150 / Opponent +140 (You bet $100 on opponent)
NY Yankees –170 / Opponent +160 (You bet $90 on opponent)
NY Mets –220 / Opponent +200 (You bet $80 on opponent)

Once the game has been decided you alter your bet for the next game based on the result. If you lost a bet on/against a team your new base for betting against / with that team increases by $10. Using the above games as examples and assuming all three teams we bet on lost we would increase our base bet by $10. Thus our new base bet would be $110. Again you must keep in mind the odds on the underdog when making your bets on the second game that each team plays. Assuming the same odds as game one for each team your bets would be:

Boston –150 / Opponent +140 (You bet $110 on opponent)
NY Yankees –170 / Opponent +160 (You bet $100 on opponent)
NY Mets –220 / Opponent +200 (You bet $90 on opponent)

If you lose any of these above bets the bet on the next game in which that team plays, again increases by $10 (New base is $120). If you win any of the above bets the bet on the next game in which that team plays, decreases by $10 (New base is $100). Keep in mind that your base bet never goes below $100 (unless of course the odds on the underdog in the game is +150 or more).

There is one other modification that I do make when betting this system. . That other point to mention is that your base bet actually drops by two levels ($20) once you win a game though your base bet never drops below $100 (unless the odds on the underdog in the game is +150 or more). Below I list betting patterns that might occur:

Example 1

Game 1: $100 on opponent (+130) (LOSS) vs. Boston
Game 2: $100 on opponent (+160) (LOSS) vs. Boston (Note that base is $110 but team is at +160 so bet drops one level)
Game 3: $120 on opponent (+120) (LOSS) vs. Boston
Game 4: $110 on opponent (+210) (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base is $130 but team is at +210 so bet drops two levels)
With a win we now drop two levels for our new base bet.
Game 5: $110 on opponent (+140) vs. Boston

Example 2

Game 1: $100 on opponent +130 (WIN) vs. Boston
Game 2: $90 on opponent +160 (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base remains at $100 but team is at +160 so bet drops one level)
Game 3: $100 on opponent +120 (LOSS) vs. Boston (Base bet remains at $100)
Game 4: $90 on opponent +210 (WIN) vs. Boston (Note that base is now at $110 but team is at +210 so bet drops two levels)

I know the above seems a little confusing but once the regular season starts I will post the bets I make each day for the first month of the season. That way you can follow my betting system and better understand it.

Cheers HockeyBoy, this looks kinda interesting, I think am gonna follow this.

(sports betting noob)

Probably gonna start off w $1000 and use $10 bets till I get the hang of it, sound ok? or is my profits gonna be so minuscule as to make it not worth it?

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Cheers HockeyBoy, this looks kinda interesting, I think am gonna follow this.

(sports betting noob)

Probably gonna start off w $1000 and use $10 bets till I get the hang of it, sound ok? or is my profits gonna be so minuscule as to make it not worth it?

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By all means use $10 as a starting bet size. Profits won't be that small. I suggest giving it a month or so and then if you feel comfortable using this system you could always increase your starting bet size.

I cant find sites that take epassporte, so I guess I'm out.

HockeyBoy

Thanks for the clear explanation at the top, I've made sense of it after re-reading it a few times (it wasn't confusing, I just had to work out what +140 etc means lol). I've just got a couple of questions that don't seem to be covered (not sure if they matter or whatever)

i) Say Boston aren't favourites for a game, I guess we are betting on them instead of against them? Are we still using the same base level according to the results of the last Boston game, or a new base level for the new team we're now betting against.

ii) Same question I suppose, but once Boston goes back to being favourite, do we use the old base level from when they were last favourites, or do we use the base level from the previous bet (where they were not favourites)

Cheers!!

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Originally Posted by Taxi

HockeyBoy

Thanks for the clear explanation at the top, I've made sense of it after re-reading it a few times (it wasn't confusing, I just had to work out what +140 etc means lol). I've just got a couple of questions that don't seem to be covered (not sure if they matter or whatever)

i) Say Boston aren't favourites for a game, I guess we are betting on them instead of against them? Are we still using the same base level according to the results of the last Boston game, or a new base level for the new team we're now betting against.

ii) Same question I suppose, but once Boston goes back to being favourite, do we use the old base level from when they were last favourites, or do we use the base level from the previous bet (where they were not favourites)

Cheers!!

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Taxi,

If Boston is not the favorite then you are betting on them and against the other team. Always bet on the underdog (team that is +; ie. +110, +140, +175, +220, etc.). Keep betting the underdog and remain on the betting pattern even if you are switching on and off Boston. The vast majority of the time they will be the favorites anyway. Here is an example using Boston and a betting sequence that might occur:

1st game) $100 on Team A +130 (LOSS) vs. Boston
2nd game) $110 on Team A +110 (LOSS) vs. Boston
3rd game) $120 on Boston +125 (WIN) vs. Team A
(3-GAME SERIES IS OVER, BOSTON STARTS NEW SERIES)
4th game) $100 on Team B +135 (LOSS) vs. Boston
5th game) $110 on Boston +105 vs. Team B

Yeah I got it cheers HockeyBoy

sounds good to me

I will also be detailing a betting method I use for hockey that has proved to be profitable. I don't know if it will translate well to baseball. I will experiment on it through the first two weeks of the season and see if it is profitable.

So here is the betting method I use in hockey that I will try out in baseball.

I will set aside $2000 for betting this and will make my starting bet at $20.

Basically it is betting on teams that are favorites to win the game. However, this method revolves on betting on that team using the -1.5 runs line. However, only bet when the difference between the line on them winning the game and them covering the -1.5 spread compared to to the base of -100 is a difference of 250 or more. For example lets say you have the following lines on the first day of the regular season:

TEAM Game Run Line
1) Chi WS -130 -1.5 +220
2) Minn. -160 -1.5 +180
3) Seattle -140 -1.5 +200
4) Texas -115 -1.5 +240

For the first game the spread difference is 250, second game is 240, third game is 240 and fourth game is 255. Thus we would place $20 bets on Chicago White Sox at -1.5 +220 and on Texas at -1.5 +240.

After the bets are decided for the day tally up your total profit / loss.

Profits Notes: If you are at the initial betting level ($20) and you made a profit on the day, stay on the same level when betting the next day. If you are at the second betting level ($22) and you made a profit totalling more than that level (profit of $22 or more) drop down a level. If the profit is between $0 and $21.99 stay at the same level. If you are at the third betting level ($24+) or above and you made a profit totalling more than twice that level (profit of $48+) drop down two levels. If the profit was under $48, stay on the same level until such time that the accumulated profit at that level equals $48 or more. Once that happens, drop down two levels.

Losses Notes: If you had a loss that totals more that twice the betting size of the bet you made that day move up to the next betting level. If you had a loss that totals under twice the betting size of the bet you made that day stay at the same level. However, once you have an accumulated loss (over two or more days) that totals more than twice the betting size of the bet you made you move up to the next betting level.

Betting levels when starting at the $20 level:

1) $20, 2) $22, 3) $24, 4) $26, 5) $28, 6) $30
7) $33, 8) $36, 9) $39, 10) $42, 11) $45
12) $49, 13) $53, 14) $57, 15) $61, 16) $65
17) $70, 18) $75, 19) $80, 20) $85, 21) $90

I realize the above is confusing. Once the season starts I will go over the actual bets I make so you can follow this system.

This betting style has worked for me in hockey. I like this for hockey because you are always betting on the favorite to win the game though they have to win by 2. Moderate favorites (ie. -130 to -150) only have to win by 2 goals once in three(+) games for you to show a profit and big favorites (ie. -200 to 250) only have to win by 2 goals once in two(+) games for you to show a profit. With hockey you get enough instances during the course of a season where the team you bet on is leading by a goal late in the game, the other team pulls their goalie and then your team scores to win by 2. Obviously in baseball that can't happen plus your team also will be denied being able to bat in the ninth when at home and leading by just one run. I will try this out for the first month of the baseball season and see how it plays out.

Later, HockeyBoy

The line is out for Boston's first game. I have made the following bet at Pinnacle:

$100 on Oakland +144 (Matsuzaka/Blanton must start)

I am holding off on betting on -1.5 lines as I had forgotten that the spreads on these games are vastly different from hockey.

I got Oakland at +146 on Pinnacle, but I noticed much closer to the game starting they were at +155 on Matchbook (they were at +140? on Matchbook when I made the Pinnacle bet), is it usually best to wait till just before the game to be making bets?
I'm just wondering if the bulk of the bets are made immediately before the game, skewing the odds further in our favour. Or something.

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Originally Posted by Taxi

I got Oakland at +146 on Pinnacle, but I noticed much closer to the game starting they were at +155 on Matchbook (they were at +140? on Matchbook when I made the Pinnacle bet), is it usually best to wait till just before the game to be making bets?
I'm just wondering if the bulk of the bets are made immediately before the game, skewing the odds further in our favour. Or something.

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Generally speaking Taxi it is better to wait closer to game time when we are betting against Boston, NY Yankees and the NY Mets. The odds on their opponents will tend to be more favorable as it gets closer to game time because the public usually bets on the teams we are betting against. I just put in an early bet on that first game so people could follow what teams I am betting on. But yes you are correct. It is usually best to wait closer to gametime before making the bet.

Here is my bet on the second game in the Bos./Oak. series:

$110 on Oak. +102 (Lester/Harden must start) (Bet at Pinnacle)

K am getting the following lines:

Boston +100 / Oakland -101 (Matchbook)
Boston -103 / Oakland -105 (Pinnacle)
Boston -115 / Oakland -105 (Carib)

Whats the plan?

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Originally Posted by Taxi

K am getting the following lines:

Boston +100 / Oakland -101 (Matchbook)
Boston -103 / Oakland -105 (Pinnacle)
Boston -115 / Oakland -105 (Carib)

Whats the plan?

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Taxi; Sorry I did not get to you until after the game was over but always bet against the "elite" team (Bos., NYY, NYM) when you have lines like this. Thus find whatever odds are best for you (in this case Oak. -101) and bet on them to win the amount you are betting (in my case $110). Taxi, I will also be listing some additional advice in the next day or two about record-keeping. Later, HockeyBoy.

No worries, its was about 4am your time or something anyways wasn't it, just thought I'd post on the off chance.

Anyway, dammit I ended up going with Boston (flipped a coin) and they lost anyway!
Oh well, live and learn, or something!

Record keeping advice would be handy, mines all on a messy spreadsheet atm, am not sure wot I need to record and wot I don't so I've recorded everything!!

Cheers HB

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Originally Posted by Taxi

No worries, its was about 4am your time or something anyways wasn't it, just thought I'd post on the off chance.

Anyway, dammit I ended up going with Boston (flipped a coin) and they lost anyway!
Oh well, live and learn, or something!

Record keeping advice would be handy, mines all on a messy spreadsheet atm, am not sure wot I need to record and wot I don't so I've recorded everything!!

Cheers HB

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http://www.sagestats.com/

Hey Lee I checked out yr site but it confused me and then I forgot about it, ill take another look, cheers

So can someone tell me when the next regular season games are? Boston games against LA are exhibition, correct? MLB site does not help much.

I think the games in orange are exhibition games and the regular season games are grey on the MLB site, so the first game is Braves @ Nationals on Sunday 8.05 ET.

Mets and Yankees play on Monday 31st, Red Sox on Tuesday.

Thanks for the clarification on the games Taxi. Here are my bets for Monday's games:

$90 on Florida +189 (Santana/Hendrickson must start)
$100 on Toronto +142 (Halladay/Wang must start)

I also placed two smaller bets on the -1.5 spreads. I am making bets anytime there is a differential of 210 on a game. Here are the two bets I have made:

$18 on San Diego -1.5 +156 (Oswalt/Peavy must start)
$20 on Detroit -1.5 +102 (Meche/Verlander must start)

All bets were made at Pinnacle.

Here are the bets I have made for games on Tue. April 1:

$90 on Toronto +153 (Halladay/Wang must start)
$100 on Florida +180 (Martinez/Vandenhurk must start)
$100 on Oakland +120 (Matsuzaka/Blanton must start)
$20 on San Diego -1.5 +129 (Backe/Young must start)

All bets were made at Pinnacle.

wooooo got my first win cheers HockeyBoy!

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Originally Posted by Taxi

wooooo got my first win cheers HockeyBoy!

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Good work Taxi!

Here are my bets for Wed. April 2:

$100 on Florida +145 (Perez/Miller must start)
$110 on Toronto +132 (Burnett/Mussina must start)
$110 on Boston +127 (Lester/Harden must start)
$20.60 on Philadelphia -1.5 -103 (Redding/Hamels must start)

First bet was made at Carib and last three bets were made at Pinnacle.

$10 on Florida +138
$11 on Toronto +134
$11 on Boston +138
All at Matchbook.
Whats the relevance of the starting pitchers? If they don't start then is the bet void?? Is that cus they have a large influence on the game??
Is this why Boston aren't favourites tonight, when they have been for the other 3 games??
I watched a lot of baseball when I was a kid but I guess I didn't pick up on this stuff.

I haven't bet on any -1.5 lines yet since I don't really know whats going on there, (cus I'm a noob) but ill pick it up soon enough I think.

I appreciate you putting your bets out early for us HockeyBoy, its cool your sacrificing some EV for us noobs :D
Games usually start about midnight my time, so I should be able to bet much closer to the start if I really get into this (which I am)

Taxi, Nice odds on Boston! To answer your question the bet IS void if those pitchers don't start. I prefer to go with the bet only if the noted starters actually start (which they do about 95% of the time anyway) as that is one of the key factors in how the oddsmakers determine their lines. Others are a) which team is at home; b) overall team ability. The reason that Boston is the underdog tonight is because they are playing against a quality pitcher on the road.

Money update: Games in Japan: +$12.20; Mar. 31: -$81.92; Apr. 1: -$30.00; Apr. 2: +$164.30. Profit/Loss so far: +$64.58. I will be doing a money update 2-3 times per week. Here is my lone bet for today as Boston and the NY Mets don't play until Friday:

$90 on Toronto +152 (McGowan/Hughes must start)

HockeyBoy

What about a bet on the 1.5 run line for Arizona @ Cincinnati?
Arizona +1.5 -189 / Cincinnati -1.5 +183 at Matchbook
Spread difference of 272 isn't it?

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Originally Posted by Taxi

HockeyBoy

What about a bet on the 1.5 run line for Arizona @ Cincinnati?
Arizona +1.5 -189 / Cincinnati -1.5 +183 at Matchbook
Spread difference of 272 isn't it?

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You are looking for a spread of 210 of greater but it is based on the favorites money line to win the game and that same teams -1.5 line. In the game you mentioned the current line at Matchbo0k is: Cincinnat1 -122 / -1.5 +175. Difference is 197. Doesn't look like there will be many opportunities for it to hit a difference of 210 but even if it is 3-4 games a week that is fine.

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Originally Posted by HockeyBoy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taxi

HockeyBoy

What about a bet on the 1.5 run line for Arizona @ Cincinnati?
Arizona +1.5 -189 / Cincinnati -1.5 +183 at Matchbook
Spread difference of 272 isn't it?

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You are looking for a spread of 210 of greater but it is based on the favorites money line to win the game and that same teams -1.5 line. In the game you mentioned the current line at Matchbo0k is: Cincinnat1 -122 / -1.5 +175. Difference is 197. Doesn't look like there will be many opportunities for it to hit a difference of 210 but even if it is 3-4 games a week that is fine.

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Oh I see, I was looking at the difference between the teams :oops:
Got Toronto at +156 anyways.

My Friday bets:

$110 on NY Mets +115 (Maine/Hudson must start)
$100 on Tampa Bay +185 (Sonnanstine/Kennedy must start)
$22 on Milwaukee -1.5 +112 (Sanchez/Villanueva must start)
$22 on San Diego -1.5 +215 (Kuroda/Germano must start)

I am holding off on betting the Boston / Toronto game until a clear favorite emerges. Will monitor the lines on that game and bet on it later in the day.

I ended up betting on Boston on Friday night. Bet was $102 on Boston -102 so that bet lost though made a profit on the night as Tampa Bay came through for me and I went 1-1 on my -1.5 bets. Here are my bets for Saturday:

$110 on NY Mets +113 (Maine/Hudson must start)
$90 on Tampa Bay +185 (Jackson/Pettitte must start)
$110 on Toronto +122 (Buchholz/Litsch must start)
$22 on San Diego -1.5 +175 (Penny/Peavy must start)

Will do my next money update after Sunday's games.

Bollocks - so it appears the games start a little earlier on saturday, and I've missed the bets on Tampa and Toronto, which has tilted me even more cus Tampa and Toronto are winning!!

Oh well got $11 on Mets +112.

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Bollocks - so it appears the games start a little earlier on saturday, and I've missed the bets on Tampa and Toronto, which has tilted me even more cus Tampa and Toronto are winning!!

Oh well got $11 on Mets +112.

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Tough break Taxi. The only game u bet was the only one I lost. You have to be aware of start times. Also try and get your bets in early if you can so you don't miss out on a game. Here are the bets I have already made for Sunday's games:

$120 on Atlanta +121 (Santana/Smoltz must start)
$90 on Tampa Bay +177 (Shields/Wang must start)
$100 on Boston +101 (Beckett/Halladay must start)
$20 on San Diego -1.5 +172 (Lowe/Young must start)
$20 on Milwaukee -1.5 +106 (Zito/Sheets must start)

Money update: Apr. 3: -$90.00; Apr. 4: +$85.60; Apr. 5: +$227.40; Apr. 6: -$44.80. Profit/Loss so far: +$242.78. Here is my lone solo bet for today:

$100 on Tampa Bay +180 (Hammel/Mussina must start)

In addition I was able to make these offsetting bets that will guarentee me a small profit:

$1950 on LA Dodgers/Arizona UNDER 8.5 +118 (PINNACLE)
$2300 on LA Dodgers/Arizona OVER 8.5 -115 (CARIB)

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Originally Posted by HockeyBoy

In addition I was able to make these offsetting bets that will guarentee me a small profit:

$1950 on LA Dodgers/Arizona UNDER 8.5 +118 (PINNACLE)
$2300 on LA Dodgers/Arizona OVER 8.5 -115 (CARIB)

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:shock:
So you win $1 if its an there's under 8 runs, and $50 if its over 8 runs?

Or something like that - half my problems so far have been the american odds - but I understand the bets, kinda like playing one sportsbook off another.

Now, where's my bankroll?

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HockeyBoy

In addition I was able to make these offsetting bets that will guarentee me a small profit:

$1950 on LA Dodgers/Arizona UNDER 8.5 +118 (PINNACLE)
$2300 on LA Dodgers/Arizona OVER 8.5 -115 (CARIB)

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:shock:
So you win $1 if its an there's under 8 runs, and $50 if its over 8 runs?

Or something like that - half my problems so far have been the american odds - but I understand the bets, kinda like playing one sportsbook off another.

Now, where's my bankroll?

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Yeah I will win $1 or $50. Hopefully $50. LOL

Lost $50 on my Monday bets. Here are my bets for Tuesday:

$120 on Kansas City +131 (Hughes/Bannister must start)
$100 on Detroit +157 (Rogers/Matsuzaka must start)
$100 on Philadelphia +134 (Moyer/Perez must start)
$90 on Oakland +153 (Gaudin/Burnett must start)

Note that I have added Toronto to the list of teams I will be betting against (unless they are underdogs).

Won $328.90 on my Tuesday bets. Here are my bets for Wednesday:

$100 on Kansas City +116 (Kennedy/Greinke must start)
$120 on Detroit +123 (Bonderman/Lester must start)
$100 on Philadelphia +125 (Kendrick/Pelfrey must start)
$90 on Oakland +152 (Smith/McGowan must start)

I also had a nice bonus playing poker last night. UB's badbeat jackpot (was over $700K) hit at a .25/.50 LIMIT HOLDEM table last night. I was playing at four different game type/levels of jackpot tables and one of them was at the same level as where the jackpot hit. My share was just under $380. Whoever suffered the badbeat pocketed over $225,000!

Won $184.40 on my Wednesday bets as my bet on K.C. was cancelled because the Yankees starter changed. Here are my bets for Thursday:

$100 on Kansas City +138 (Pettitte/Bale must start)
$100 on Detroit +127 (Robertson/Wakefield must start)
$110 on Philadelphia +148 (Eaton/Maine must start)
$100 on Oakland +131 (Eveland/Marcum must start)

MONEY UPDATE: + $706.08 through Wednesday night bets.

Um so Boston are playing Yankees tonight - and just when I thought I'd got it all worked out!!

Did you say you do something different for when they play each other?

Thanks

Taxi

EDIT. See below.

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Um so Boston are playing Yankees tonight - and just when I thought I'd got it all worked out!!

Did you say you do something different for when they play each other?

Thanks

Taxi

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Make a bet on the underdog. For me that bet will be $110. I am just waiting until later in the day to make the bet as a clear favorite has not yet emerged. I will put my bets up later today.

Lost $179.00 on my Thursday bets. Here are my bets for Friday:

$120 on Milwaukee +105 (Parra/Figueroa must start)
$100 on NY Yankees +100 (Wang/Buchholz must start)
$100 on Toronto +105 (Litsch/Padilla must start)

Thanks for the Advice!!

I am up 3 Dimes for this week guys!!!!!!!!

Good work dekadenz! Won $85.00 on my Friday bets. Here are my bets for Saturday:

$130 on Milwaukee +133 (Sheets/Santana must start)
$100 on NY Yankees +147 (Mussina/Beckett must start)
$100 on Texas +137 (Halladay/Mendoza must start)

Lost $27.10 on my Saturday bets. Here are my bets for Sunday:

$110 on Milwaukee +120 (Suppan/Perez must start)
$110 on NY Yankees +132 (Hughes/Matsuzaka must start)
$110 on Texas +129 (Burnett/Feldman must start)

Lost $88.00 on my Sunday bets.
MONEY UPDATE: + $496.98 through Sunday night bets.

Here are my bets for Monday:

$120 on Boston +111 (Lester/Westbrook must start)
$120 on Baltimore +110 (McGowan/Albers must start)
$120 on Tampa Bay +109 (Kennedy/Sonnastine must start)

Nice one HockeyBoy
I've bumped my bet sizes upto $20 now am sure am not gonna be making anymore mistakes,

Wishing you good luck Taxi on moving up to the $20 level. Hopefully you got bets in for Monday's games as I went 2-1 for a profit of $145.20.

Here are my bets for Tuesday:

$90 on Washington +153 (Perez/Pelfrey must start)
$100 on Baltimore +123 (Marcum/Trachsel must start)
$130 on Tampa Bay +109 (Pettitte/Jackson must start)

No clear favorite has emerged in the Boston game so I have not bet on that game yet. Will bet it later in the day.

Yeah I haven't missed a bet for ages now, but my mistakes earlier cost me a bit.
Bet $24 on all 3 games for monday anyway :D

Got my bets in for today already, except for Boston game cus I wasn't sure, looks like Boston are gonna be favourites on Matchbook but am waiting for some better odds too since its starts later anyway.

Cheers HockeyBoy!!

Got my bet in on the Boston game tonight:

$100 on Cleveland +101 (Wakefield/Byrd must start). Bet made at Matchbook.

What do you think your long term daily winrate is doing this hockeyboy?

Massimo, I expect a return of around 50% of my total bankroll. Thus I expect to win about $5,000 over the course of the season. If I were divide that by the number of games in a season (162) that works out to an average daily winrate of about $31. Had a very bad night last night as I went 0-4 and lost $420 but that is going to happen from time to time when you are betting against favorites.

Here are my bets for Wednesday:

$100 on Washington +178 (Chico/Maine must start)
$110 on Texas +126 (Gabbard/Litsch must start)
$130 on Boston +151 (Buchholz/Wang must start)
$20 on LA Dodgers -1.5 +120 (Maholm/Penny must start)

Note that Boston are playing the NY Yankees. When deciding what to bet on a game that involves two teams in our betting system, go with whatever team is at the highest $ figure in their betting cycle. At the moment Boston is at the $110 level while the NY Yankees are at the $140 level. Thus we make a bet at the $140 level. Because the odds are above +150 we drop the bet by $10 which gives us a bet amount of $130 on that game.

Mets -200 / -1.5 +110 difference of exactly 210 on Carib - worth going for?

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Mets -200 / -1.5 +110 difference of exactly 210 on Carib - worth going for?

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Normally I would say yes but because we are making a straight bet on their opponent I would not bet it. If you found those odds on another game then I would say yes.

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Originally Posted by HockeyBoy

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Mets -200 / -1.5 +110 difference of exactly 210 on Carib - worth going for?

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Normally I would say yes but because we are making a straight bet on their opponent I would not bet it. If you found those odds on another game then I would say yes.

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Yeah I realised that as soon as I walked away from the computer :oops:

Lost $67.40 on my Wednesday bets.

Here are my bets for Thursday:

$110 on Washington +153 (Lannan/Figueroa must start)
$150 on NY Yankees +122 (Beckett/Mussina must start)
$90 on Texas +176 (Padilla/Halladay must start)

MONEY UPDATE / (SINCE START OF SEASON): + $154.78 through Wednesday night bets.

Lost $118.40 on my Thursday bets.

Here are my bets for Friday:

$132.60 on Philadelphia -102 (Santana/Hamels must start)
$104 on Detroit -104 (Rogers/Purcey must start)
$160 on Baltimore +127 (Hughes/Cabrera must start)
$110 on Texas +209 (Mendoza/Matsuzaka must start)

Mets +102
Philadelphia -104

you've bet on Philadelphia, were the odds different then? Also, wots with the weird bet size?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taxi

Mets +102
Philadelphia -104

you've bet on Philadelphia, were the odds different then? Also, wots with the weird bet size?

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I had to make a bet early as I knew I wouldnt have time to make a bet shortly before game time. At that time Philly was the underdog at -102 on Pinnacle. The weird bet size is because my bet level on a game involving the NY Mets was at $130 and I made a bet to win that amount based on Philly being -102.

Won $60.60 on my Friday bets.

Got my bets in early for Saturday's games:

$140 on Philadelphia +112 (Perez/Moyer must start)
$100 on Detroit +100 (Bonderman/McGowan must start)
$140 on Baltimore +135 (Kennedy/Burres must start)
$130 on Texas +165 (Jennings/Lester must start)

Note that with the Yankees losing on Friday my base level with them drops 2 levels (from $160 to $140).

won $314 on yesterday's baltimore game

Lost $181.00 on my Saturday bets.

Here are my bets for Sunday:

$150 on Philadelphia +100 (Pelfrey/Eaton must start)
$110 on Detroit +119 (Robertson/Burnett must start)
$120 on Baltimore +161 (Pettitte/Trachsel must start)
$150 on Texas +147 (Millwood/Wakefield must start)

Note that with the Yankees losing on Saturday my base level with them drops once again though this time it only drops one level (down to $130; because their opponent is in the +150 to +199 range, the bet drops by another $10). When you have a win in a sequence the next bet against/on that team drops by two levels. Any consecutive wins in that sequence then drop the next bet down by only one level. Keep in mind that your bet level never should drop below your starting bet size (in my case it is $100; exception is when odds on team you are betting on is +150 or above).

Lost $230.00 on my Sunday bets.

Here are my bets for Monday:

$130 on NY Mets +124 (Maine/Zambrano must start)
$120 on Detroit +123 (Gallaraga/Marcum must start)
$160 on Texas +148 (Gabbard/Buchholz must start)

MONEY UPDATE / (SINCE START OF SEASON): - $314.02 through Sunday bets.

Lost $142.40 on my Monday bets.

Here are my bets for Tuesday:

$140 on NY Mets +108 (Figueroa/Lilly must start)
$100 on Toronto +131 (Litsch/Shields must start)
$140 on Chicago WS +136 (Wang/Contreras must start)
$160 on LA Angels +165 (Weaver/Beckett must start)

Two additional bets for Tuesday:

$20 on Atlanta -1.5 +101 (Lannan/Smoltz must start)
$21.60 on Arizona -1.5 -108 (Zito/Webb must start)

Lost $421.60 on my Tuesday bets. Note that the bet on Boston was cancelled as one of the starters did not start the game.

Here are my bets for Wednesday:

$140 on Washington +179 (Santana/Redding must start)
$110 on Tampa Bay +127 (Halladay/Hamel must start)
$150 on NY Yankees +132 (Mussina/Vazquez must start)
$160 on LA Angels +162 (Garland/Matsuzaka must start)

Won $197.70 on my Wednesday bets. Note that once again the bet on Boston was cancelled as one of the starters did not start the game.

Here are my bets for Thursday:

$160 on Washington +120 (Hill/Perez must start)
$130 on Chicago WS +107 (Hughes/Floyd must start)
$170 on LA Angels +100 (Saunders/Masterson must start)

I have not made a bet on the Toronto game yet as a clear favorite has not emerged. Will post the bet here once I have made it.

Won $501.10 on my Thursday bets. I never did get a bet in on the Toronto game but was fortunate to go 3-0 on the other games.

Here are my bets for Friday:

$140 on Atlanta +123 (Jurrgens/Pelfrey must start)
$120 on Cleveland +111 (Pettitte/Byrd must start)
$150 on Tampa Bay +101 (Wakefield/Garza must start)
$100 on Kansas City +102 (Burnett/Greinke must start)

MONEY UPDATE / (SINCE START OF SEASON): - $179.22 through Thursday bets.

Won $558.90 on my Friday bets as I went 4-0.

Here are my bets for Saturday:

$130 on Atlanta +107 (Hudson/Maine must start)
$140 on Tampa Bay +117 (Buchholz/Jackson must start)
$100 on Kansas City +112 (Marcum/Hochevar must start)

No clear favorite on the NY Yankees game as of yet so will delay my bet until closer to game time.

Here is my final bet for Saturday:

$110 on Cleveland +100 (Kennedy/Sowers must start)

Won $255.80 on my Saturday bets as I went 3-1.

Here are my bets for Sunday:

$130 on NY Mets +113 (Smoltz/Figueroa must start)
$130 on Tampa Bay +112 (Beckett/Shields must start)
$100 on Toronto +102 (Litsch/Meche must start)
$100 on Cleveland +102 (Wang/Sabathia must start)

Won $294.50 on my Sunday bets as I went 3-1.

Here are my bets for Monday:

$100 on Pittsburgh +212 (Snell/Santana must start)
$110 on Cleveland +103 (Mussina/Laffey must start)
$22 on San Francisco -1.5 +224 (Morales/Cain must start)

MONEY UPDATE / (SINCE START OF SEASON): + $929.98 through Sunday bets.

Lost $60.72 on my Monday bets. The NY Mets game was postponed.

Here are my bets for Tuesday:

$120 on Boston +102 (Halladay/Lester must start)
$120 on Detroit +122 (Rogers/Hughes must start)

I will make a bet later in the day on the NY Mets.

I will continue to list bets I make using this system through the end of April. If there is anybody out there that wants me to continue listing my bets here past that point let me know. Regards, HockeyBoy.

One additional bet for today:

$100 on Pittsburgh +212 (Snell/Santana must start)

Won $168.80 on my Tuesday bets. Please note that I bet Detroit in the Det./NYY game. I have corrected the team in my betting summation above. Odds as listed previously. I just put the wrong team down.

Here are my bets for Wednesday:

$120 on Pittsburgh +152 (Gorzelanny/Perez must start)
$90 on Toronto +152 (McGowan/Matsuzaka must start)
$100 on Detroit +127 (Bonderman/Pettitte must start)
$20 on San Francisco -1.5 +200 (Jimenez/Sanchez must start)

Won $199.40 on my Wednesday bets. That concludes the first month of betting using this system. My initial bankroll of $10,000 has shown a healthy profit through the first month of the baseball season.

MONEY UPDATE / (SINCE START OF SEASON): + $1,237.46 through Wednesday (end of April) bets .

Hopefully I have benefitted some of you out there that have stuck with this system from the beginning of the season. I will continue to make bets at this end. I recommend you do the same. This system has been a moneymaker for me for five consecutive baseball seasons. I will do a monthly update from here on in unless there is interest in continuing my daily updates. Best Regards, HockeyBoy.

Cheers HockeyBoy!

Way late bump.

I decided to try ghost-betting this system (I want to try to make money eventually, but I don't have startup capital yet) with different teams to see how it would perform and I just have a few questions I hope you'll eventually notice and answer.

First, is there a specific number of teams I should be betting on? Like, you're using 3, but would using 4 or 5 be detrimental? Should I only be risking around a certain percentage of my roll on each game? (I'm just using the moneyline part, not the runline)

Second, does it make a massive difference that I've chosen different teams? I started a bit later in the season so I got some opinions on what teams would likely be generating the most action based on their performance so far and have been betting with/against them.

I haven't been going for terribly long, but my results are overwhelming red so far, which leads me to my second question. Is it normal to have stretches where you lose the majority of your bets? I'm just wondering if a long stretch of negatives will be made up for by a few days of positive. I'm seeing from your April results that this system gets pretty swongy. Do you expect that it typically ends positive?

For reference I'm using BOS, CHC, FLA, LAA, and STL as the teams to bet with/against and so far the favorite is consistently winning. Opinions there are welcomed as well. I haven't put real money on this yet but I certainly expect to at some point.

I'm no expert but ill chip in till HockeyBoy gets back to us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zxqv8

First, is there a specific number of teams I should be betting on? Like, you're using 3, but would using 4 or 5 be detrimental? Should I only be risking around a certain percentage of my roll on each game? (I'm just using the moneyline part, not the runline)

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I think the general advice is to not risk more than 2.5% of your bankroll on any given bet, going down to 1% if your doing it for a living.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zxqv8

Second, does it make a massive difference that I've chosen different teams? I started a bit later in the season so I got some opinions on what teams would likely be generating the most action based on their performance so far and have been betting with/against them.

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I think it does make a difference, HockeyBoy chose the teams because of the better odds offered for the opposition, due to them being the big/popular teams.
Of course you might have differing opinions on whether a team is getting backed more heavily because of public hype or whatever. I suppose working this out is what makes you a good sports bettor.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zxqv8

I haven't been going for terribly long, but my results are overwhelming red so far, which leads me to my second question. Is it normal to have stretches where you lose the majority of your bets? I'm just wondering if a long stretch of negatives will be made up for by a few days of positive. I'm seeing from your April results that this system gets pretty swongy. Do you expect that it typically ends positive?

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Sportsbetting is as swongy as hell from what I can tell, kinda like heads up poker, the money only goes one way or the other.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zxqv8

For reference I'm using BOS, CHC, FLA, LAA, and STL as the teams to bet with/against and so far the favorite is consistently winning. Opinions there are welcomed as well. I haven't put real money on this yet but I certainly expect to at some point.

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I suspect we lose more bets than we win, since our big teams usually end up with a record >.500, but the better odds we're getting make up for this.

Thanks for the reply, definitely makes sense, I'll have to watch more sportscenter and talk to more people.

Good part of this is that I get to see what kind of odds teams are typically laid. I'm keeping a spreadsheet tracking the odds of 5 different sportsbooks (bodog, betus, pinnacle, carib, matchbook) at the same time and hypothetically picking the best. After a while I'll not only get a feel for which teams generate the best odds, but also which sites see the most action.