Originally Posted by XTR1000
While I´m scanning the tables for todays 6max session I´m gonna write about squeeze plays on full ring tables. For most ppl here probably a trivial topic, for me it´s quite new. We´ve all read the chapter in HOH1 where Dan squezes with T4 or something, but he talks about tourney´s and doesn´t go too far into detail. Beside that, it´s a topic where I really think about it myself and becoming a thinking player is my ultimate goal.
I haven´t searched the forums nor the web for articles about it, so the following content is potentially worthless.
We´re assuming a 100NL full ring table, active players w/ 100BB stacks.
There´s a raise from MP1, std TAG with PFR >8, to 4BB and one or two caller in HJ/CO/BTN with VPIP>18.
We´re OTB/SB/BB. I´m treating those 3 position the same way for a simple reason: If we 3bet OTB opponent will assign a wider range to us, but can´t open up too much, b/c he will be oop. If we 3bet from the blinds, villian may open up a bit, b/c he will have postion on us, but cant open up too much, b/c 3bet ranges from the blinds are usually pretty tight.
MP1´s opening range is something like 66+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs for a total of 94 combinations
HJ/CO/BTN´s calling range is 22-TT, 78s+, JTo-KQo, ATs-AJs, AQo for a total of 134 combinations, assuming he´d 3bet anything above that range himself
Our standard 3betting range is, depending on style, JJ+, AK, AQs, which has 56% equity against MP1´s range.
Now, with two caller, there´s 13.5BB in the pot and we raise to 16BB, laying 2.5:1 immediate and 8:1 implied odds, we probably fold out anything but JJ+, AK and AQs.
Note that these hands aren´t in our callers ranges, we assume our HJ/CO/BTN aren´t prone to slowplay premiums preflop.
This means, we fold out 50 combinations or 53% of MP1´s hands for an immediate profit of 13.5BB. The remaining 47% villian calls/raises with a range against which our standard range has 50% equity.
For the sake of simplicity we ignore the times where one caller overcalls our 3bet and changes our equity drastically. (an overcaller with 55-77, JTs has 25% equity. I love pstove)
Let´s see how far we can expand our range to make our 3bet 0ev:
We assume MP1 4bets KK+,12 of the remaining 44 combinations or 12.7% of his total hands, leaving 34.3% where he calls w/ JJ-QQ, AK,AQs.
In case villian 4bets we obv shove KK+ for 0eV and fold anything else for a net loss of 16BB
If MP1 calls, we see a flop with a pot of (16+16+4+4+1.5)BB = 41.5BB against a range of JJ-QQ, AK, AQs
eV = 0.53*13.5BB - 0.127*16BB + 0.343*X*41.5 (!)= 0; where "X" is our equity if called
(I ignore bets on subsequent rounds, b/c it´s getting too complicated and my head is already asploding)
--> eV = .53*13.5BB - .127*16BB + .343*X*41.5BB (!)= 0
5.123 = 14.2345X
X = .36 or 36%
Means our 3betting range needs 36% equity if called to let us break even on this squeeze.
Now play around with Pstove:
39% equity
6,270,457,248 games 0.005 secs 1,254,091,449,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.317% 58.86% 01.46% 3690848964 91279962.00 { KK-JJ, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.683% 38.23% 01.46% 2397048360 91279962.00 { 55+, AQs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo, JTo }
37% equity
9,195,072,480 games 0.001 secs 9,195,072,480,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.919% 60.85% 02.07% 5595209948 190279892.00 { KK-JJ, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 37.081% 35.01% 02.07% 3219302748 190279892.00 { 55+, AQs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+, KQo, QJo, JTo, T9o }
Well, that´s it so far. I´m gonna ask around if one of our math guys can go through this and give me shit if my math wrong, if not, I´ll post this in the full ring forum and hopefully start a discussion on this topic.
