Play Of The Week

i suggest we use this thread for a little friendly competition. For all of you out there who do regular sports betting i propose we each post 1 NFL and 1 college play per week that we think is best. It can be a spread or an over/under bet, whatever. When you make your post for the week you should also post your W-L for your Plays Of The Week for both NFL and NCAA.

So my first post would look like this.

Week 1
NFL: Indianappolis -3
NCAA: Michigan -7

Year To Date:
NFL: 0-0
NCAA: 0-0

This way we can get some good games out there for people to bet on and can have a little competition to see who is the best handicapper here at FTR. Good luck to everyone and lets get some picks going so we can pad or bankrolls!

NFL:
Balt +3
Det -3

YTD:
0-0

I'm gonna have fun with this:

NCAA:
Texas +1

NFL:
Texans/Bills OVER 37.5

YTD:
NCAA: 0-0
NFL: 0-0

[Lines from www.sportbet.com]

NFL
Minnesota -6

NCAA
Temple +34

Record 0-0

Quote:

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Originally Posted by realgenius

NFL
Green Bay +3
Minnesota -6

NCAA
Temple +34

Record 0-0

I will always do the Packer game and the Wisconsin Badger game, and a third random game.

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Pick one NFL game and go with it... the idea is to post your best for each sport. This way everyone picks only two games per week and we can have a fair level to see who is the best on. Just edit your post down to one.

What if you could give a rats ass about college spreads? Can we post 2 NFL games then? :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ZenOffsuit

What if you could give a rats ass about college spreads? Can we post 2 NFL games then? :)

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Just do 1 NFL game then. That way you can still be compared to everyone else for the NFL YTD and may be crowned champion of the NFL (if you win).

Just one makes this really tough, but here we go...

Philadelphia -1 (Line from bet365)

NFL 0-0-0

I took my lines frombetonsports.com if it matters

Seattle +3 at Jacksonville
WSU - 10 over Nevada

NFL 0-0
college 0-0

My super parlay of the week. Rams -7 vs SF + Over (46)

Interesting line on the LSU vs ASU game now at Tempe. ASU is a 1.5 point favorite now...Of course the big swing in Points is due to the fact this is now an ASU home game. I'm a Pac-10 guy, so I'm fully aware of the potential of this team (ASU). I still recall a very mediocre Oregon State team blowing a W at LSU. I like the Sun Devils to run over the Tigers.

Week 1
NFL: St. Louis -5.5 (this game shouldn't even be close)

Year To Date:
NFL: 0-0

Here I go my pick:
The Rams over the 49s with -3.5 points
from Mathbook.com

NFL: St. Louis -5.5 (www.bet365)

I would almost put my life savings on this one.

Interesting how the Rams (-5.5) at 49ers seems to be sticking out. This wasn't my handicap pick of the week, but it was definitely one of my $ plays.
Rams at -3.5??? had to check this out. turns out its matchbook.com but the line already moved to -4.5. The pay is -119. BetJamaica.com -5.5,
-110 has a more standard line. seems like matchbook.com lines vary from most of the other sportsbooks cuz of a lower risk/higher juice ratio for spreads.

Lol, so I'm 0-1 on my college picks, Not only did Wisconsin cover the 34 points Temple was given, they almost doubled it and won 65-0. Glad I didn't have any real money on it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Armstrong

NFL: St. Louis -5.5 (www.bet365)

I would almost put my life savings on this one.

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SF 14 STL 6 with 2mins. to go in the 1st half.

I'm 1-0 in CFB but 0-1 in PRO.

Meh, I still feel St. Louis has a shot.

YES! I'm 0-1 NFL and 0-1 NCAA.

looks like a rough week for alot of people..that St. Louis game seemed to be a big pick... glad i stayed away from it.

For the weekend i went 1-1 in NCAA (won on Texas, lost on Mich) and i went 3-0 in the NFL (won on Indy, KC, and Cinci)

Should be some interesting matchups for this coming week... cant wait to see the NFL lines

1-0 in college thanks to the WSU Cougs covering 10 points vs the lowly Nevada Wolfpack. However, my Seahawks get torn up by a solid Jacksoniville defense and I'm 0-1 in the Pros. That's the last time I bet on my favorite teams.

This week's early favorites
College - Oregon -3 vs Fresno St
Pro - Pitt-5 @ Houston

Is it just me or does Michigan lose early every season, win the remainder of their games vs avg/below avg opponnents and get hyped as once again a true National Power only to lose their BCS bowlgame. I'm fuking tired of Michigan's hype. Their teams sucks this year, ND isn't top 10 quality.

There is no reason for Michigan not to be good, but I'm sure everyone up there is scratching their heads this week.

This week was a great example of why betting NFL games is the definition of gambooooling.

NCAA: Florida St. -2

NFL: NY Jets -6

Damn i meant to get my plays in yesterday bc i wanted my NCAA to be TCU +4 in last nights game.. oh well.. i guess ill go with

NCAA: Boston College +2
NFL: KC -1.5

NFL Year to Date: 1-0
NCAA Year to Date: 0-1

some other games im also on this weekend are
NFL: Detroit -2, San Diego +3, and ST. Louis at pck
NCAA: Maryland -3, Nebraska -10

C'mon guys where are all your picks!?!?

Week 2
NFL: Detroit -2

Year To Date:
NFL: 0-1 (The Rams can die)

NFL: San Diego +3 (bet365)

NFL: 0-1-0 (stupid Trotter, stupid Akers)

Week 2

Wisconsin -4.5
St. Louis +1

Well had another winning weekend even though i was only 50% on my games. I ended up going huge on KC last night and that worked out. Once again i hit my NFL play and missed my NCAA play. That BC game was the only college game i ended up taking thank god because the other two i liked i decided at the last minute not to bet. Hope everyone had a winning weekend!

Damn, I chop with the house on my NCAA pick. I took Oregon -3 and they won by 3. College Record is now 1-0-1...Steelers cover -5.5 easily and I make a killing on sportsbook.com...1-1 now in the NFL.

nice hit on the steelers Double... i couldnt pull the trigger on it.. it was one of those games that just seemed to good to be true... Steelers are looking like a Super Bowl contender to me. Lets see if they can beat that pesky team in NE though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jmrogers7

Week 2
NFL: Detroit -2

Year To Date:
NFL: 0-1 (The Rams can die)

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Jesus. I should just stick to college games. I did much better there. Went 4-1 Saturday.

Monday, September 12, 2005 To Sunday, September 18, 2005
09/17/2005 12:05 CF EASTERN MICHIGAN to Win +29(-110)
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs MICHIGAN
EASTERN MICHIGAN 0 MICHIGAN 55
$ 20.00 wagered to win $ 18.18 at 09/16/2005 23:06 LOSE $ 20.00

09/17/2005 15:35 CF ALABAMA to Win -2(-110)
ALABAMA vs SOUTH CAROLINA
ALABAMA 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 14
$ 20.00 wagered to win $ 18.18 at 09/16/2005 23:06 WIN $ 18.18

09/17/2005 15:35 CF CLEMSON to Win +7(-110)
MIAMI FLA vs CLEMSON
MIAMI FLA 36 CLEMSON 30
$ 20.00 wagered to win $ 18.18 at 09/16/2005 23:06 WIN $ 18.18

09/17/2005 16:05 CF MIAMI OHIO to Win -6.5(-110)
MIAMI OHIO vs KENT
MIAMI OHIO 27 KENT 10
$ 10.00 wagered to win $ 9.09 at 09/16/2005 23:06 WIN $ 9.09

09/17/2005 19:05 CF 1st Half-WISCONSIN to Win -2(-110)
1st Half-WISCONSIN vs 1st Half-NORTH CAROLINA
1st Half-WISCONSIN 7 1st Half-NORTH CAROLINA 3
$ 10.00 wagered to win $ 9.09 at 09/16/2005 23:06 WIN $ 9.09

Great week man...nice call on Clemson

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doubledown

Great week man...nice call on Clemson

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Thanks! Yeah, I definitely had a good week in the college realm. I'm not a high-roller but I'm not an uninformed bettor either. Thankfully, I didn't listen to my pick on this board. In fact, i stayed away from pro games altogether yesterday.

I like to get a couple weeks in before I start laying any money on the NFL. Probably bet a game or 2 next week.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kling

NCAA: Florida St. -2

NFL: NY Jets -6

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Won both.

NCAA: 2-0
NFL: 1-1

Plays of the Week

NCAA - Minnesota (-3.5) at home vs Purdue

NFL - GB (+3.5) at home vs Tampa

Not sure of my NFL play of the week. But my NCAA play is tonight so here gos...

NCAA: Bowling Green +8

NCAA: Year to Date: 0-2(this needs to change!)

I wasn't aware Bowling Green/BSU was tonight. Living in the NW I've seen quite a bit of Boise State...I also had a chance to catch Bowling Green (my favorite College name by the way) vs Wisconsin and their QB is solid. I like your choice...The over tonight could be as sure bet as you see. These offenses can roll.

So last week was good, won both games. Here we go for this week.

Wisconsin +2.5
Green Bay +3.5

2-0 last week 2-2 overall

Well i am still winless in my NCAA picks... i knew coming in to this that my NCAA wouldnt be nearly as good as my NFL as i dont follow it as closely but 0-3 still hurts! Hopefully i can still stay perfect in the NFL this weekend... not sure on my pick now.. i have it narrowed down to three games..ill post it tomorrow

week 3:
NFL: Cincinnati -3

NFL YTD: 0-2 the streak continues???

Ok here goes my NFL picks

POTW
NFL: Cinci -3 .
NFL year to date: 2-0

Cinci has looked powerful this year even though they played two crappy teams. I am still thinking that they can beat this below average bears team at home. That number that Chicago put up last week on Detroit was lucky. I see them having trouble scoring more then 14. Also betting on KC +3 (this was almost my pick of the week) and San Diego -6, look for san diego to finally get the ball rolling this season on an over-rated NY Giants team.

Good luck to everyone this weekend!

Cincy is looking real good this year so far, hard to pick against them.

Perfect Week! Minnesota comes through bigtime in OT to take Purdue by 7 and GB covers 3.5 at home.

NFL 2-1
NCAA 2-0-1

NFL : 3-0
NCAA: 0-3

This is just horrible.. ive always been better at NFL then NCAA but this is getting rediculous. So far on my bets ive made this season i am:
NFL: 9-2
NCAA: 1-3

I guess i just need to stick to NFL. Lets hope the Cheifs cover for me tonight and i will have gone 4-0 in my plays this weekend.

Another perfect week. Wisconsin stole the victory against Michigan and the Packers covered the spread. I'm now 4-2 overall. Now for this week.

Green Bay +7.5
Wisconsin -18

NFL: Green Bay +7.5 (3-0 NFL year to date)
NCAA: UTEP -3 (0-3 NCAA year to date)

I dont really love any of the nfl games this week like i have in all my previous plays of the week. I already posted the rest of my pics in my NFL/NCAA thread so if you are interested check them out there.

Lets have a killer weekend boys!

NFL: Seahawks +2 at the Skins...I know the skins are 2-0 but this Seahawk offense has looked incredible the past few weeks. I don't see the Skin cb's coming close to stopping the Hawks lethal passing Attack.

NCAA: I'm going with WSU +2 at Oregon St. Cougs are going to show the world they're a top tier Pac-10 Team...Remember the name Jason Hill (guy is a scoring machine).

NFL: 2-1
NCAA: 2-0-1

NFL: Tampa Bay -6.5 (from Vipsports)

NFL YTD: 1-2 (time to even up)

Awful Weekend...My Cougs choked one away against the Beavs and The Seahawks blew an opportunity to sneak out of RFK with a W. Thank goodness I was so drunk all weekend that I never put any money on the game.s

Overall:
NCAA: 2-1-1
NFL: 2-2

I do not understand why i cant pick an NCAA play of the week winner to save my life.

NFL play of the week: 4-0
NCAA play of the week: 0-4


there is always next week to snap the skid!

3 undefeated weeks in a row. I'm now 6-2 (3-1 Pro 3-1 NCAA)

I got lucky the Packers covered on Monday, and the Badgers look like they could be for real this year. Now for this weeks picks.

Badgers -6.5 (Hard to bet against this team, even if they are on the road. Although if the spread were higher, I might have taken Northwestern, but I think the spread is definately in Wisconsins favor.)

Packers -3 (Hard to believe the Packers are a favorite to anyone, but I think they'll pull this one out, even with all the injuries.)

NFL POTW: Philidelphia Eagles -3

NCAA POTW: UCLA -1

NFL year to date: 4-0
NCAA year to date: 0-4 (This will change this week!!)

check out my other thread to see my whole card for this weekend

NCAA: I'll take Cal +1 (Sorry MasterB but I'm not sold on the Bruins)

NFL: I love Philly but I guess I'll go with Indy -14 vs SF

NCAA: 2-1-1
NFL: 2-2

(I think)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doubledown

NCAA: I'll take Cal +1 (Sorry MasterB but I'm not sold on the Bruins)

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My wife and I are UCLA alums and we'll be watching the game tomorrow with her best friend and her best friend's husband both of whom are Cal alums.

Having Cal season tickets, they tend to take the games more seriously than we do. Still, it would be nice to see UCLA win at home...

Anyone ever hear of Greg Robinson (Handicapper), he's currenlty at 67% against the line this season and comes on the local Seattle Sports Radio station every Friday morning giving listeners the opportunity to call in with questions on lines...here are some of his expert Picks.

Ari over Carolina straight up

Georgia straight up vs Tenn

Rams -3 vs Seahawks

USC -38 vs Ariz

NC/Louisville over (63)

Penn State to cover OSU (can't remember the points on this one)

Philly -3 over Dallas

Cal +1 over UCLA

Indy-15 vs SF

WSU - 13 vs Stanford

Nebraska to cover TTech

I know theres some more that I can't recall off the top of my head...

NFL: Philly -3. surprised the spread was this low and hasn't yet changed.

NFL: 1-3 ( stupid Griese 4 turnovers, you killed me)

I don't even pick NFL games, but I just checked the spreads and I can't believe people aren't looking at the Skins and the dolphins. The Skins won't lose by more then 7, so they will lose and cover. The Dolphins win by 7 at least.

Skins +7
Dolphins +3

arent the skins playing IN Denver?? if that's the case, they'll get smacked.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by realgenius

arent the skins playing IN Denver?? if that's the case, they'll get smacked.

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They won't lose by more then 7.

but the fins are my sure pick. I'd do like 1 unit on the skins 5 units on the phins. If the dolphins don't win I'll stop betting.

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 10/05/05 21:33 ET

Colts(Indianapolis)
49ers(SanFrancisco) 10/09/05 (16:05 ET)
Colts(Indianapolis) -5

Eagles(Philadelphia)
Cowboys(Dallas) 10/09/05 (16:15 ET)
Eagles(Philadelphia) +6.5

Redskins(Washington)
Broncos(Denver) 10/09/05 (16:15 ET)
Redskins(Washington) +17

play it... cash it...

That UCLA game was interesting. It was 41-40 UCLA with 6 seconds left. UCLA has the ball 4th and goal. I thought they would just run backwards for 6 seconds to burn the clock but they scored a td to end it 47-40. Had they just run the clock out it would have been a push because they were favored by a point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Roundahz

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 10/05/05 21:33 ET

Colts(Indianapolis)
49ers(SanFrancisco) 10/09/05 (16:05 ET)
Colts(Indianapolis) -5

Eagles(Philadelphia)
Cowboys(Dallas) 10/09/05 (16:15 ET)
Eagles(Philadelphia) +6.5

Redskins(Washington)
Broncos(Denver) 10/09/05 (16:15 ET)
Redskins(Washington) +17

play it... cash it...

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What, how are you getting these lines? What?? Did I miss something?

Edit: Yes I see it's a teaser, but I wasn't aware you could tease 10 points for every game. hmmm

I actually went 2-2-1 today. If Miami didn't have 100 penalties they would have won. Cincy fumbles on the final drive to give me a push.

It's fun, but even more frustrating then poker. You have no control over the outcome.

Early line on the Cincy game is -3 -105 vs the Titans. They win by over 10 points easy. I dropped an early bet on this game before the line moved.

Edit: Fixed it for late night tiredness

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doggz

Early line on the Cincy game is -3 -105 vs the Texans. They win by over 10 points easy. I dropped an early bet on this game before the line moved.

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Cincy is playing the TITANS not the TEXANS.. big difference. I am assuming you knew this but just wanted to point it out. Still i would be careful, Cinci hasnt looked that great these last two weeks in barely beating the dismal Texans then loosing to the Jag's. While the Titans looked like their old selfs in their win this past week. Im going to have to look into this game a little more and ill let you know what side im on.

I actually won that Cinci game, I got +4 at Nine.com Sunday morning. It was 3 at Bodog and VIPSports. It's worth checking out the different books for a slight edge - in this case it ended up being the difference.

I've personally been using our own http://nfl-sports-betting.flopturnriver.com to quickly compare the lines of Bodog and Nine.com (the VIPSports feed is delayed so it changes).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grand_MasterB

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doggz

Early line on the Cincy game is -3 -105 vs the Texans. They win by over 10 points easy. I dropped an early bet on this game before the line moved.

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Cincy is playing the TITANS not the TEXANS.. big difference. I am assuming you knew this but just wanted to point it out. Still i would be careful, Cinci hasnt looked that great these last two weeks in barely beating the dismal Texans then loosing to the Jag's. While the Titans looked like their old selfs in their win this past week. Im going to have to look into this game a little more and ill let you know what side im on.

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Yes I knew this I just am not a very good typist. Also, the Titans were playing the Texans last week and I was watching the game. They didn't look that impressive. The Texans are TERRIBLE.

Won with the Colts and Lost with the Cal Bears...

NFL: 3-2
NCAA: 2-2-1

Picks for Week 6, COMING SOON

NFL: Carolina +1

NFL ytd: 1-4 (damn Philly, bye week was 6, not 5. )

NFL (4-1 year to date)
Atlanta -6

NCAA (1-4 year to date)
Purdue -6.5

lets make some money this weekend boys!

NCAA - I like 3 games a lot...UW +16, WSU +6, and Arkansas +7.5...mmm

Let's take UW +16 vs the Oregon Ducks...Would take the Cougs but the injury to Hill looks like it's been killing them and he's doubtful

NFL: I like Trent Dilfer to upset the Ravens...The line I see today has Cle +6...I'll take it.

NFL: 3-2
NCAA: 2-2-1

NFL year to date (4-2)

this week im going with KC +2

NCAA year to date (1-5, this is why i rarely bet NCAA any more)
VT -9 (really like this play tonight though!)


Other games im on this week
NFL year to date for all NFL plays 13-6-1
Pitt +1, 4 units
KC +2, 4 units
Buffalo -3, 1 unit
49ers +13, 1 unit

good luck everybody!
Denver +2, 3 units

this week is off to a good start... VT -9 was easy money last night!

NFL: 3-3
NCAA: 2-3-1

Ouch I'm cold of late...Though I did hit that V Tech game up for a few bones!

This week I like:

NFL - Seattle -3 vs Dallas
NCAA: Oregon State +10 @ UCLA

NFL 6-3-2

I had KC +2 (in other thread)

Also going with

SD +4 2 units
DEN +2 3 units
INDY ML 10 units

NFL: Buf +3

NFL ytd: 2-4

also playin this week:
Rams -3
Colts -15.5
Skins -13.5
Broncos +2
Chargers +3.5
Falcons -7
Seahawks -4
Bengals Even

PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLTS -14.5

It took me so long to go with this play, and there is good reason. It's week 7 and the colts are laying HUGE points. Is Houston REALLY this bad? They can't get blown out EVERY game, can they? Yes, yes they can. The Texans are probably the worst team in the league to backdoor cover on top of this. They just have no offence, and they come in playing the top ranked defence. The Colts are forcing the most sacks in the league, and the Texans are taking the most sacks in the league. Last week the Texans rearranged the OLine and slowed down Seattle, but still put up a paltry 10 points. The Colts defence will not be so kind.

On top of this, The Colts have won all of their last 3 games by over 14 points. They show that they will put a team away and hold a huge lead. Their offence has been coming alive and has put up large numbers over the last 3 weeks. Don't expect them to slow down for the last ranked Texans defence.

I'm going huge on this game, because I would just be upset with myself if I didn't. Cash in with me on this game.

Colts -14.5 3 Units
Colts ML -979 10 Units

TEAM TOTALS

Texans UNDER 14.5 Points 1 Unit
Colts OVER 30.5 Points 2 Units

If you can tease the line, I'd take Colts -19.5. It pays out considerably better.

Also, take Colts -9.5 for halftime. The Colts are bound to score in the 2 minute warning, so that's at least 30% of the spread right there, more likely 70% of the spread.

In the first quarter, take the over for 7.5. The Colts are going to score at least one touchdown, more likely two. The Texans, more than likely, are going to go three and out, but who knows? They could score a field goal. :roll: . Taking this bet, what you're saying is that you believe that the Colts can score, then stop the texans, then score again, all in the first quarter. Being a Texans fan, I can tell you that this is very likely.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by doggz

PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLTS -14.5

It took me so long to go with this play, and there is good reason. It's week 7 and the colts are laying HUGE points. Is Houston REALLY this bad? They can't get blown out EVERY game, can they? Yes, yes they can. The Texans are probably the worst team in the league to backdoor cover on top of this. They just have no offence, and they come in playing the top ranked defence. The Colts are forcing the most sacks in the league, and the Texans are taking the most sacks in the league. Last week the Texans rearranged the OLine and slowed down Seattle, but still put up a paltry 10 points. The Colts defence will not be so kind.

On top of this, The Colts have won all of their last 3 games by over 14 points. They show that they will put a team away and hold a huge lead. Their offence has been coming alive and has put up large numbers over the last 3 weeks. Don't expect them to slow down for the last ranked Texans defence.

I'm going huge on this game, because I would just be upset with myself if I didn't. Cash in with me on this game.

Colts -14.5 3 Units
Colts ML -979 10 Units

TEAM TOTALS

Texans UNDER 14.5 Points 1 Unit
Colts OVER 30.5 Points 2 Units

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Colts took it to the house for me today. Would have been a perfect 4 picks if not for a late 2nd quater TD and a meaningless kickoff return late in the 4th. Total play +5 units!

Great weekend for me.. seems to be that way for alot of people here.

Was +6 units this weekend.

NFL POTW (5-2 year to date)
KC+2, that line was a gift

NFL picks year to date: 15-8-1

NCAA POTW (2-5 year to date)
VT -9 , finally starting to get my NCAA record on track.. but this is why i bet mostly NFL

NFL: chicago +3
the loss of Bly should help Muhammed. Garcia should be in for a long day.
sorry chicago. you get the kiss of death this week.

NFL POTW YTD: 2-5 (Raiders D holds McGahee, wow)

NFL
Houston Texans -1.5
5-2 year to date (i rule at NFL!!)

NCAA
Nebraska -1.5
2-5 year to date (NCAA hates me)

taking the small home chalk this week.

not betting anything in real money this week. not a whole lot that i like in the NFL and i havent had time to cap the games.

I wouldn't bet on the Texans. Dilfer's gonna have all day to throw.

Houston come through for me! Crappy Browns

NFL year to date: 6-2

NCAA year to date: 2-6

Play of the WEEK(year) week 9

Seahawks -4 at the Cardinals

Is this line for real? First off. The hawks demolished the Cardinals in there last game. The only 2 games the Cardinals have played close is verse SF and TEN. Also, the Seahawks had the week off to rest and prepare.

The Seahawks are very underrated in the public eye, and you should take this gift for what it is.

Hawks -4 5units

EDIT: Oh yea, they have this guy named Alexander...

I pushed another 5 units on this play and this will be my only play this weekend. It is just that strong of a play. Arizona cannot run the ball at all, and the Seahawks weekness is the run D. The Seattle is giving up less than 200 yards per game in the air, and is going to make it very difficult for the Cardinals to get anything going. On top of this, the Cardinals run defence IS one of their weekpoints. The Seahawks are one of the best teams running the ball this season.

Go seahawks :)

NFL: Car at TB Car -1.5
nfl potw ytd: 3-5 (Chi was kind. also had them on a 2-parlay (ML and U) which returned +3.4 units)
also playin this week so far:
SD at NYJ SD -6
Chi at NO Chi -3
Atl at Mia Atl -2
NYG at SF NYG -10
Sea at Arz Sea -4
Pit at GB Pit -6
Ind at NE Ind -3

Can anyone give me any reasons NOT to take the Falcons -2 over the Dolphins? I mean, really.

Or better yet, can someone talk me into taking the Falcons along with Seattle this week?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Can anyone give me any reasons NOT to take the Falcons -2 over the Dolphins? I mean, really.

Or better yet, can someone talk me into taking the Falcons along with Seattle this week?

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I'll tell you that it's a trap. Even though Vegas is taking heavy betting on ATL, the line hasn't moved at all. They don't do this very often, but when they do there is a reason. If 80% betting favorites won often then Vegas would lose. Vegas does not lose.

Incase you care the Indy game and the Seattle game are both traps as well, but I feel the Seattle game is set for a trap for the wrong reasons. May come back to bite me.

Could you elaborate on that for me doggz? PM me if need be, but yeah. I was going to go heavy on these two games and now you've got me worried.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Could you elaborate on that for me doggz? PM me if need be, but yeah. I was going to go heavy on these two games and now you've got me worried.

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It is simple. The idea of a line is to force half the action on one team and half the action on the other team. This way the house wins no matter what. This is where line movements come in if they feel the action is coming in to heavy on one team.

A trap is simple. They perceive the line at X place, but they know the public loves a team. They set the line where they think they can push the most action on one team and then take it to the bank when that team doesn't cover.

ATL
INDY
Seattle

Bets are coming in over 70% on these teams, if these 'sure picks' always worked out sportsbetters would be millioniars and people like Steve Wynn wouldn't be building new casinos every year.

Simply, Vegas doesn't lose, so you need to identify the lines that look like a gift from the ones that truely are, and Vegas doesn't often give away free money.

But then again, this is just one line of thought. If you go to wagerline dot com they show line movements and betting action (of limited sample that is). They list the picks that are taking over 60% of the bets - the 'sure picks'. Looking at the stats shows that these picks are exactly 50%, in other words, exactly the same as if you just randomly picked teams every week.

Don't hesitate to make a play if you feel it is a strong move. A good sports bettor only wins 55%+ of his picks, just make sure you have reasons for making the picks.

Well after looking around, I'm really scared on this Atlanta game now. It seems as though everything's ripe for a Miami upset. Miami's defense strength is the run and the Falcons just love to pound it up the middle. At the same time, the Falcons run defense is fairly poor, and the Dolphins seem to have found their groove running the ball. I already placed my bet on ATL -2.5 at -105, but I'm getting nervous.

Would you mind elaborating on the whole "wrong reasons" thing regarding the Seattle/Arizona game? I've actually seen the line move quite a bit and be different on different sportsbooks, so what does this mean?

Sorry to bother you so much doggz, but you seem to know what you're doing.

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Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Well after looking around, I'm really scared on this Atlanta game now. It seems as though everything's ripe for a Miami upset. Miami's defense strength is the run and the Falcons just love to pound it up the middle. At the same time, the Falcons run defense is fairly poor, and the Dolphins seem to have found their groove running the ball. I already placed my bet on ATL -2.5 at -105, but I'm getting nervous.

Would you mind elaborating on the whole "wrong reasons" thing regarding the Seattle/Arizona game? I've actually seen the line move quite a bit and be different on different sportsbooks, so what does this mean?

Sorry to bother you so much doggz, but you seem to know what you're doing.

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I'm actually a rookie, but I did stay at a holiday inn last night!

It's about reading. There is a lot of good information availible if you want to find it.

Reasons I like Seattle:

-Top run game verses a bad Zona run defence.
-Good pass defence verses a Zona team that can't do anything BUT pass.
-The ONLY close games Zona has played are verse terrible teams. Every game verse a solid opponent they get destroyed.
-Seattle is underrated across the board.
-People are playing to much stock in both Seattles #1 and 2 recievers being hurt. Hawks have shown this won't slow down the attack.
-Seattle is one of those teams that put teams away, and have no problem running up the score... means less backdoor covers.

Reasons I don't like Seattle:

-They are playing away from home and they play much better in the controled dome turf.

Reasons why they think this is a trap:

Trends, which I don't put stock in. Any good poker player knows over a small sample size results like AA losing 5 times in a row is very possible. This doesn't mean don't play AA or that it's a crappy hand.

Seattle is 0 - 6 after the bye week under Homlgren.
Seattle is 6-15 Against the spread in their last 21 games.
Seattle is 2-4-0 ATS in its last 6 away games

A gambler sees a team he doesn't want to bet on, a poker player sees random variance. Analize each game independantly, just as you would each hand in poker

I make my plays like I play poker, It's about equity. If I feel a bet wins about 60% of the time, then it's a solid play and I go with it.

Worst case Seattle loses a close game, best case they win by 30. The odds are definately tilted in a solid Seattle win.

Anquan Boldin WR Out Week 9 (knee)

Holy shit, I had no idea he was hurt. Wow that is such a huge advantage for the Seahawks. I already have half my years earnings on this game, which is probably foolish in itself. I love this bet there is so much equity in it.

I <3 Seattle

Me too. I also love ATL. :)

Stupid Chargers...win by 5 when I have -5.5. :(
How do you nearly give up a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter?

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Originally Posted by ensign_lee

Me too. I also love ATL. :)

Stupid Chargers...win by 5 when I have -5.5. :(
How do you nearly give up a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter?

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to the 3rd string QB no less. I had chargers -6, but only for 1unit. Still, wtf?

Some nice picks in here this week, thanks guys. Made money on Seattle (3 units) and Pittsburgh (1 unit), lost San Diego (1 unit), and pushed Chicago (1 unit).

Any last second picks on Washington (-3) v Philly? I think I'll take Washington 1 unit.

*Edit - TO is out, definitely Washington.

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Originally Posted by ttanaka

Some nice picks in here this week, thanks guys. Made money on Seattle (3 units) and Pittsburgh (1 unit), lost San Diego (1 unit), and pushed Chicago (1 unit).

Any last second picks on Washington (-3) v Philly? I think I'll take Washington 1 unit.

*Edit - TO is out, definitely Washington.

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I was leaning Washington early in the week, but I think removing TO will motivate the Eagles. The line is just too close for me. I'd take Wash -3 (+100) but the juice is inflated on all the books I could find.

Week 10 lines are coming out as I'm typing this, stay tuned.