Yeah because that heavily implies that wuf, your current vote, is a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'd fucking hard clear you 100% if you vote gabe.
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Yeah because that heavily implies that wuf, your current vote, is a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'd fucking hard clear you 100% if you vote gabe.
If you don't, then we're always lynching gabe/keith tomorrow because the risk of drew/gabe is too high.
Dude, I don't believe the cross-pairing scheme. At all.
How can you know which is winning right now? I think lynching gabe wins right now. But I might be wrong. That's why I want to hard clear you.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I don't know who the wolves are.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
You, otoh, are saying that if I lynch gabe, I'll be a lock villager tomorrow.
How do you know gabe will flip villager?
I don't think he will flip villager. But if he did, well you'd be confirmed not wolf with wuf, because that's where your vote is right now with 5 mins left. And wuf would be near confirmed wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I feel like I'm being railroaded.
I'm staying course.
It's gabe/keith/drew/monkey
lynch gabe/keith tomorrow
DAY END, NO POSTING
VOTE COUNT
Wuf (6): SMF, Keith, Boog, BID, hoopy, gabe
Gabe (5): Wuf, Rascal, gator, rilla , ong
Boog (1): Aubrey
ALLOWING 5 MIN FOR CORRECTIONS
COUNT IS LEGIT
WUFWUGY HAS BEEN LYNCHED!!!
Wufwugy was a...
...
....
VILLAGER
His partner was... Gator!
The village of [noun]
Current List (10)
BID
Lilrascal
Keith
Gabe
Ongbonga
Rilla
Hoopy
Boog
Supermonkeyface
aubrey
3 Pairs of 2 Villagers
1 Group of 4 Wolves
Deceased
Wufwugy, lynched day 1
Gator, suicides day 1
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. 72 hours until day end, 1 48hr extension available.
Thread open, GO GO GO
So then drew. What now? You gonna join me in lynching gabe? Or you gonna turn on me?
lynch boog
Ong has attacked enough people that he can't be a wolf. So the smf bid Aubrey ong team doesn't work and definitely not boog hoopy ong Aubrey. It must be boog hoopy smf bud. Back to computer soon to pick at this
Ong did you reread any of the thread ? Please do with the updated context in mind. I'm village
Why boog? Who is the rest of his team?
I'm not reading the thread now, it's getting late. I'll read tomorrow. That said, I'm not in any hurry to spew my vote out on such a critical day.
I mean it's not like you've read the thread with new info in mind, is it gabe?
Unless you're Number Johnny 5.
Idk manQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I read you as a villager from the beginning.
No way in hell am I gonna slap my vote on someone right away.
I'm gonna watch Sunday football and think about it.
gabe has just been proven wrong, but instead of thinking "oh fuck" and then reading the thread, he just ploughs a vote on boog.
gabe villager is NEVER this careless. He knew he was voting for boog before wuf even flipped.
Note that he's also encouraging me to read the thread.
I mean cmon.
If we let gabe live today, then holy fucking shit this village sucks.
I'd like to hear you elaborate on this. It would help tremendously.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
I was initially skeptical of boog on D1 but I later assumed it was because I always am skeptical of boog.
I'd also like to know what the current feel is on the cross-claim thing now. Is that 100% v/v/v/v now? Is v/v/w/w an option? That would be funny as shit.
Okay. sunday football.
that lynch cleared gator and rilla. thats obviousQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
i'm not a wolf. thats obvious (to me)
boog/hoopy is the only hot team. thats obvious to everyone
my post was just based on obvious things
ive been villaging all game. the way i show this is to keep villaging
its 100% vvvv. if gator and rilla were wolves, they wouldnt have engaged in that behaviorQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
but you already know this. the boog/hopy/smf/bid team has to be more likely than any team with ong in it
All this blood on your hands and you're gonna crack a beer and catch a game?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Wufwugy needed you.
Gator needed you.
Ugh. I'm sick to my stomach. I don't understand how this happened. Maybe I let the idea of not losing to obvious wolves get the best of me.
Lynch gabe
I think this means I believe it's gabe/Keith/BID/Monkey. But then gabe has BID/Monkey in his four.
You know what? We're best if we all list our four. Go.
Ong/Aubrey/BID/Monkey? Rescind gabe
There's a chance BID is the best lynch tonight. Those thinking it's BID/Monkey with me and Hoopy will like that (Ong, Gabe, dead Wuf, dead Gator, I think Rilla). Also, those thinking it's BID/Monkey and mix of gabe/Keith/Ong/Aubrey will be satisfied.
I lynch BID here.
FUCK
Well that throws all my ideas out the window. Looks like you were right on wuf alignment Ong.
Lets use this day fully, no quick lynches.
So much this.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Time to rethink.
rilla & rascal are obviously clear now.
Ong would not have played how he has as a wolf, trying to save wuf would be a very weird play.
aubrey by extension is clear.
Me and BooG will have to convince you guys we're villagers.
And hoopy wins the award for the single wolfiest post in the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Hoopy here has just solved the game, from his pov. Yet he's more interested in convincing us they're villagers? That doesn't matter, we're lynching gabe/keith. Hoopy should be comfortable here, assuming he's a villager. The lynch is very likely to fall on someone who he has poe'd as wolf.
hoopy doesn't come across as someone who is comfortable here, nor does he come across as someone who is confident he has solved the game.
I'm back to hoopy/boog with keith/gabe.
Shit, even I agree that was a wolfy fucking post.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I was hoping to come into post game this evening. Instead I read posts like this and the one Ong pointed out by Hoopy.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
I still think the wolves are in gabe/keith/boog/hoopy. I have a small bit of concern about BID. I really wish he would have switched his vote, then this would be locked.
Lynch gabe.
Fuck it, then. Lynch gabe
Yes but though the game might be solved from my perspective I understand that people still suspect BooG/me. The wolves will try and get us mislynched so we need to do our best to help the village here.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Et tu, Brute?Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Well, gabe has two votes and hasn't been lynched. That means that gabe, or someone voting for him, is a wolf.
aubrey you lovely human, where are you?
monkey you smelly animal, where are you?
It's possible monkey is a wolf and that's why it's not over.
But really. As if gabe boog and rascal are all villagers.
In fact reading this, the penny drops and I can see this is clearly impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
lynch gabe
I think you can make the argument that I wouldn't have pushed so hard to lynch wuf as a wolf the same way Ong would not have defended wuf so hard as a wolf.
Aaaaaand here comes the paranoia about rascal rilla boog and hoopy.
I'll look into that team once I've eaten something.
sorry, family stuff, hospitals, bleh:(
anyway.. had I been around I coulda told you guys wuf wasn't a wolf lol, I could tell by his posts. Too bad.
I feel like boog/hoopy are wolves by tone alone, but I wanna catch up a bit, check out this BID vote thing a little more closely
(some of the posts these last few pages have seriously cracked me the f up, esp boog and ong)
Oh hi aubrey!
I wasn't thinking about MAJ if it's not Gabe, but I don't really believe that.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
rescind
We're clearly going to lose this game.
rascal and rilla are cleared by the cross partnering.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Actually, no, the answer lies in everyone naming their four. Everyone, please to do so.
Ong, please don't get paranoid again. Rilla and I are villa. I really believe that you are villa. That leaves 3 teams of which 2 are wolves. We just need to get this right.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
If we would have voted Gabe yesterday it would have been a win yesterday or a lock today.
Let's just look at the possible pairings and work this out.
On phone now, but will look more in depth later, but I still think it's Gabe/Keith/boog/hoopy almost always.
Cleared how?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
In the same way I was cleared last game?
Paranoia is a good thing in this game.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
I'm just keeping on open mind. I haven't looked back yet to see if there's any reason for you not to be wolves with hoopy and boog. I hope I find something.
I'll be back in an hour or two, I'm off to do one of the following...
a) meet a girl for coffee
b) job interview
c) get weed
Place your bets now.
Fair enough. But you figured it out yesterday with the foursome. I just don't want your paranoia to get too much in the way.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
LOL. I'm going with c.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Ong: It's extremely difficult for me to be a wolf, at least with gabe. I was on gabe almost all of D1 until a) JKDS made a mistake in the vote count and b) the whole Rascal/Wuf/Gator/Rascal thing went down.
I still like a gabe lynch or BID lynch here. Rascal/Rilla pretty clear in my eyes right now. If they pull that move off as wolves, more power to them.
i think we should lynch gabe today and the likeliest wolves to me are gabe/keith/bid/smf
i would go into more detail but i simply don't have the time for that level of thread analysis, maybe later
gotta go wash some wuf/gator blood off my hands now whilst i weep silently
VOTE COUNT
Gabe (2) Boog, Hoopy
Boog (1): Gabe
~49 hours left in the day, 6 to lynch
lol wolves voting for each other while villagers bide their time.
boog talking about how I could still be a wolf with gabe despite me throwing my weight behind the idea he was wolfy early on.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
boog talking about how voting for gabe on d1 means he's not wolfing with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
This is where boog backs away from gabe. Boog would have us believe he was on him all day, but this is p2. I'm sure boog does swing for him again, but this demonstrates that boog is more than willing to give gabe village points when push comes to shove.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
So far through my reread, I'm really liking rascal's tone.
note - going back out, I've read up to p4
Oh I saw a drew vote for boog that needed noting, that's further evidence that drew isn't wolfing with boog. Bearing in mind that drew attacked boog for attacking gabe, and considering this is from only 3 whole pages of info, I feel good about a gabe lynch winning this for us.
Certainly not voting yet though.
Holy shit I forgot about this game.
I've been literally working and then working on my commerce course for an additional 6 hours a day. Test tomorrow, final on Saturday :/
I haven't read much. I'll try n get into this thread at some point later tonight. Unless I have tomorrow evening (but I don't think I do, lynch probably tomorrow?)
Thanks for picking up the slack drew!
Commerce course lol
College course * (business math to be exact)
I'd like rilla to share his thoughts.
I never read the last game in detail.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
They both kept their votes on gabe at EOD.
Complexity of both going along with a double fake pairing, either could have denied the pairing and gotten wuf/Gator lynched quickly.
General tone of their posts.
My point being that wolves can look like cleared villagers.
I don't think rascal and rilla are wolves. But I'm certainly going to consider it while I read through.
This is certainly good enough to clear them of being wolves with gabe/keith. There should be more clues like this that can help us. I hope to find them when I continue reading. Just got back home now and it's 1am, so fuck that for today.Quote:
They both kept their votes on gabe at EOD.
before review i had it boog/hoopy/smf/bid has the only possible team. POE removes everyone else but i dont really feel this team. im starting to think its more likely the public POE has been manipulated
when wuf/gator died my gut reaction was to clear rilla/rascal. my view on the 4some was that two wolves would not participate in that plan because they could just let the 2 villagers (wuf/gator) or me get lynched instead. they wouldnt need to stick their neck out. and obv villagers wouldnt initiate the crossclaim with 2 people they just hoped werent wolves. this was the big sticking point for me. i was saying no way rilla had a 100% read that he would trust to make this bold play, because if he was wrong the village is screwed. but its completely possible that rilla/rascal did this to shift votes from rascal (eventually falling on wuf) while also clearing themselves for day 2. its ambitious fps that leaves them looking smart and villagery if we dont question it. rilla can pretend he made a villager-on-villager 100% soulread to pocket wuf, but that doesnt matter if rilla and rascal have perfect info (because theyre wolves).
it also makes sense that as wolves they were trying to be creative enough to solve a game that should otherwise be stacked for the village
also before the whole crossclaim party i thought rascal wasn't being his normal villager stuff. he wasn't hunting and engaging, while casting shade on me repeatedly when i was trying to help the village. not to mention Freud slip
rilla has posted 0 and its hard to take away his intentions. rilla looks like he completely shut himself off and decide only to make "{{ .. }} {..}" type posts for days
a problem is that its not immediately obvious who their partners are. boog/hoopy is the hottest team but i havent extensively looked at the boog/hoopy - rascal/rilla interaction.
just now i focused on the claiming and cross claiming dynamic to try and figure what they were thinking. rilla is pretty absent from all of this except the inital
this is where things all started. at this point, i was arguing with ong about why we should out, and ong/wuf had just bolded me right before thisQuote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
rilla decided to come out and say this. ong uses POE to determine the pairs and 21 minutes later rascal "confirms" that his partner is wuf:
2 minutes later:Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
within an hour ong points out the weird relationship rascal and wuf had if they were actually a pair. i could see why the wolves could choose to target gator and wuf. one is missing in action, and other is honorary wolf for lifeQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
i had a vote on rascal, then a couple votes came in on wuf/rascal, and then by the time we settled on one person it was shifted (mostly by ong) to wuf.
rascal during all of this gives rilla, ong and BID village props but not their partners. finally 4 hours gator comes out of nowhere to confess
rascal immediately ties this to him being clearedQuote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
also ong points this out:Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
has rascal ever said "Idk" before? im starting to see where he could know the answer and thats why his reaction was to say "i dont know!" like, he doesnt know but he still did go along with rilla's plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
this is an impossible plan to propose if he was a villager:
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
the wolves have guided the POE to be boog/hoopy + either smf/bid or me/keith. since i know im a villager, the POE must be boog/hoopy and bid/smf. like i said, this team doesnt sit right with me. now i'm not sure if we can clear ong/aubrey, i want to review more and see where the teams interact
regardless i dont think we ever lynch ong/aubrey because they dont overlap with enough of the possible teams
i tried to post that earlier but FTR kept being down. lets get another extension since FTR has been bugging out the last 2 days
Luco replaces Keith
48hr extension granted, due to downage + replacement
rescind
the whole crossclaim thing does not feel all villagery. i dont believe rilla/rascal had some partner ESP that set this whole play in motion
there is not much interaction with them and others in the thread so i dont have a solid guess other than the general POE hoopy/boog. rilla/rascal are disconnected from people besides the claiming and one liners
keith went to feed the pigs and the pigs ate him
is this a reference to brick top? If so, have some cool pointsQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Mason from Hannibal would also be acceptable
nope, it's boog / hoopy / bid / smf all day longQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
allllll day
Boog / hoopy reactions to the d1 flip:
Boog with the melodrama. Sick to your stomach?Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
This is also a horrendously insincere, 'back to the drawing board' post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
I see several comments that SMF wouldn't have crumbed bid like that as a wolf, but that train of thought dies when you remember that the wolves had a headstart on us. All it takes is someone saying 'leave an early crumb' in the den, it's not even a leap
And what have SMF / bid done today?
They scared
I don't think you need to be partnered with gabe to see he's a villager here, he has several posts that are intrinsically from his villager brain
Kind of funny that the pigs ate the wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
It's also true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
But I do like this reasoning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Luco you're very definite for someone whose just subbed in.
The following is looking at just D1 votes and possible wolf pairings.
Gabe/Keith(Luco) & Boog/Hoopy
Gabe/Keith(Luco) never voted for Boog/Hoopy on D1.
Hoopy never voted for Gabe/Keith(Luco) on D1. Boog did vote for Gabe early in #115, but rescinded it fairly early in #200; but never voted for Keith(Luco).
Gabe/Keith(Luco) & BID/SMF
Gabe/Keith(Luco) never voted for BID/SMF, but BID never received any vote on D1 and SMF only one from Ong early, so BID/SMF never received any heat from being voted.
BID/SMF never voted for Gabe/Keith(Luco).
Boog/Hoopy & BID/SMF
Boog/Hoopy never voted for BID/SMF, but BID never received any vote on D1 and SMF only one from Ong early, so BID/SMF never received any heat from being voted.
BID did vote for Boog fairly early in #221 and didn't change until #581 when he went with Wuf.
The only people from these groups to take any heat (in the form of votes) through all of the extended D1, are gabe and boog and other than BID's vote on Boog, these teams haven't voted for each other.
BID's vote on Boog, especially sticking with it until he voted Wuf near EOD, but didn't change (still disappointed in that) is the only vote that looks villagery (based on him not believing that Wuf would do what he did as a Villa).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since people like percentages, I have the following as the percentages for the pairings to be w/w:
Gabe/Keith(Luco) & Boog/Hoopy - 55%
Gabe/Keith(Luco) & BID/SMF - 35%
Boog/Hoopy & BID/SMF - 10%
So of the possible pairings, the highest probability to hit a wolf team is Gabe/Keith(Luco) based on D1 votes.
I'll wait for more D2 votes to do any kind of analysis there.
Before anyone asks why I didn't include Ong/Aubrey in the mix. I can't see where they are wolves in this game. Ong has been doing the heavy lifting for this village, especially at EOD yesterday.
I agree with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
How does luco know the wolves had a head start?
Ok so luco has done one of the following...
a) followed the game from the off
b) noticed the time stamps and content of JKDS' opening posts to see that pms had been sent and there was a delay
c) seen the den
Here's the post that stands out to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
"haedstart"
luco has literally just subbed in, I don't see why he would be aware of this except if he's got access to the den.
I'm gonna dig some more through today to be happier that rascal and rilla are not wolfing. I'm liking rilla less and less, but luckily rascal is holding that pair up enough to stop my paranoia getting out of control.
Ong wtfQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
You know I've been active on ftr and I know you've seen my commune posts over the last week or two. Of course I've been following, I almost signed up
It doesn't help that you're gabe's partner luco and that I'm convinced you're unfortunate enough to have subbed into a fucked wolf role.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Of course, you're already up to date and would have aniticpated this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
This is really villagery from drew. It's totally unnecessary for wolf drew to be so quick to reject a potential mislynch. This strikes me as particularly sincere. I'd be impressed if drew is a wolf here.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
At the time, rascal is looking at aubrey, and drew responds with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
drew is not looking for mislynches here, he's trying to figure stuff out. I get a sense of sincerity from rascal too as he presses aubrey, but it's not so strong a town vibe as drew here. rascal is putting pressure on a villager, while drew is rejecting it. drew is starting to look very good.
Ong, you're suspecting Luco here and he suspects me. I think you're villager and all but none of your suspicions are adding up. You need to re-evaluate your read on me here. The only team that really makes sense is Gabe/Luco/BID/SMF.