this post couldn't be any more gatorQuote:
Originally Posted by lynchpelion
wagon observation, villager claim, "i will go back to a...", vote
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this post couldn't be any more gatorQuote:
Originally Posted by lynchpelion
wagon observation, villager claim, "i will go back to a...", vote
One thing I want to point out, and I think it is a possibly a serious strategic error, probably the only one the village made and the thing that kept it from being basically a clean sweep:
Gravy flipping wolf and showing no interest in self-preservation by voting his counterwagon should not clear Agua. In fact, the reluctance of both to vote the other should probably give indication that it was possibly w/w wagons.
This is not always going to be the case, of course. If a wolf is one of the leading wagons, if he makes a vigorous case for the other wagon, this can of course save him, and anything can happen the next day. And wolves do occasionally bus other wolves (I've been forced to use this strategy quite a bit in my other games -- I had one game where me and the other wolf in a 9-man game were the wagons on D1, we bussed each other and I won it, sick brag).
The problem is that when a wolf fights to get the other guy lynched, but dies a wolf anyway, it can create a basically confirmed villager.
I think one of the wolves voting the other is the most +EV line for the wolves; the third wolf has the toughest choice.
You just seemed to find even the smallest thing and point out how that could make me a wolf, but you weren't doing that with everyone. And even with that you didn't jump right out and say I should be lynched so I figured you had to have looked me up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
If you did it on purpose as cover for the real seer then you did an excellent job.
the moral of the story is... when wuf says so and so is never a wolf here, ignore him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
This would be amazing if they were wolves togetherQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
Thinking about the modkills -
I think the insta-modkill of those who acc slip is probably necessary, but it potentially brings an interesting mechanic into the game... let's assume instead of looking at dwd, quad looked at taint... well now it's 4 cleared vs 4 unknows... what happens if duck, an unknown villager, deliberately posts as ong? Suicide by modkill, leaving 4 cleared vs 3 unknowns... a winning move. Is that really fair to the wolves? They don't have that weapon.
Is such a move fair game or not? After all, we're obliged to play to our win condition.
This was an excellent game to spectate. The early mod kills were fantastic from a reader's perspective.
Losing a wolf over a slip-up that early, while entertaining, was also disappointing as far as the game now being stacked heavily toward village win.
I like the faster day/night cycle format of this game compared to the games I played in.
I played this game assuming that the wolves were allowed to reveal to each other, but they weren't. Harsh lol
Eric, gabe, gator - did you guys figure each other out at all?
Most of it was accidental - I was pushing quad & pelion together because I was trying to get ducksucks and duck to reconcile their viewpoints and move forward as a unit. Just a couple of odd comments were designed to look specialishQuote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Oh yeah I thought jkds was a wolf because while I was begging for the vig shot and not the seer lookup, it felt like he didn't consider that I was the vig trying to stop the seer looking at a special. Either that or he didn't care. I figured the latter is more likely.
I think they should be allowed to reveal to one another, that's supposed to be their advantage is ability to collaborate and share everything. They could always do obvious things in the den that gives themselves away to one another and put the mod in a tough spot for making subjective calls which always turns out ugly. See Keybored in the dead thread when baud made a call he didn't agree with and the tantrum that ensued. BTW baud, pretty sure that wasn't actually gabe that posted that comment about you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I think a huge village error was letting Aqua off the hook because he stopped posting. Not being results oriented, just think that's awful reasoning on day 1. You're not making a soul read so just get rid of the trash while you can. I also want to know why when I'm a wolf and I take the shut up and disappear approach you fuckers aren't so quick to let me off the hook!
basically with agua we were victims of our own success
agree about the collaboration too, wolves should have known each other and been allowed to guess the villagers imo
my phone is still tainted
Very good. Thanks :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
why did Gabe and Rong just vanish
Some theory to hold you over. Play werewolf like Zeckhuaser plays bridge. http://www.rbcpa.com/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf
I've been playing 2-3 turbos a day since I got killed in Anon.
cool article
This. But I would bet my life that when you ignore me, I'll be right. The WW gods have it against FTR. They refuse to let anything that has >10% probability of happening actually happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I really want to mod an anonwolf tbh. I like modding a lot, probably more than playing, just not always modding. It also comes easy to me. I don't seem to have problems figuring out what the best actions are to keep the game fair and in spirit
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Play werewolf like Zeckhauser plays bridge.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I'm having a hard time assessing the point of that article. He's doing what we do here: taking things that are true in certain ways under certain circumstances, and extrapolating them to the whole. What's the lesson in there to do with WW?
It's a high level survey of ways people get things wrong from a very clever man who has spent his adult life noticing how easily people see things wrong.
(edit My Zeckhauser point basicially says that) Basically, you, as a human being with a human brain forged by evolution, suck at statistics. You literally cannot do basic, elementary statistics as it's not in your nature. Your nature is to do absurd statistics like constantly focusing on >10% chance things of happening happening.
Occam's razor, FPS, etc etc.Quote:
When the brain should be using the simple probability mathematics of Fermat and Pascal applied to all reasonably obtainable and correctly weighted items of information that are of
value in predicting outcomes, the right way to think is the way Zeckhauser plays bridge.
It’s just that simple. And your brain doesn’t naturally know how to think the way
Zeckhauser knows how to play bridge. Now, you notice I put in that availability thing, and
there I’m mimicking some very eminent psychologists [Daniel] Kahneman, Eikhout[?] (I
hope I pronounced that right) and [Amos] Tversky, who raised the idea of availability to a
whole heuristic of misjudgment. And they are very substantially right.
That's true. The brain is not logical, it's intuitive. Math is not intuitive, it's logical. But I'm still wondering what's the prescription. How am I supposed to take that idea and apply it to WW?
How do you think Zeckhauser plays bridge?Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
No idea. Surely the point can't be to just be intuitive
i didn't actually read but I assume the point is the opposite of being intuitive and to inject logic (this is a phrase Jared Tendler uses)
I knew. It took me a good few hours to read it.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
You would punish me for reading a few pages and seeing no thesis and most points speculative. You already know I can't comprehend the Dan Carlin style
Not punishing. There's nothing I can say. You suck at basic statistics. It takes purposeful effort not to suck. You can train yourself to think about games in a basic statistical manner and should. If you trained yourself to think about werewolf in a basic statistical manner, like Zeckhauser does with bridge, you would never again believe "The WW gods have it against FTR. They refuse to let anything that has >10% probability of happening actually happen."Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Well, I don't actually believe that line about the WW gods. I believe what I said in game. I just don't know if I'm viewing it the right way.
Wuf, I feel pretty strongly that if I find myself in a spot where the leading wagons don't want to defend themselves or vote each other, I'm lynching both of them in quick order and I feel like I'll be lynching 1.1+ wolves
lol, you and me both!Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Agreed, I'm looking forward to being a villager one of these times.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Nope, I didn't know gabe was gravy until he was killed. Didn't know gator was LP either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Gravy not defending himself and also not voting Agua are two tells that I missed, but that's partly because of the anon-ness. All too often we have Agua's type of behavior and it's just an uninterested villagerQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
It should be pointed out that none of this would have happened if Gator hadn't added steam to a wolf wagon when the only running wagons were two wolves. If you asked me before this game, I would say never in a million years would a wolf do that except by accident or major FPS, because all it does is ensure a wolf dies without adding much to the path for victory of the other wolves
This d1 saw no wagon of a villager with more than 1 bold until like four hours were left. I mean, c'mon! I'm still surprised. I guess anything is possible
I was reading den and thread in real time. I don't know the exact details but it became obvious very early that Gravy was taking a lot of heat and Agua wasn't going to be the world greatest wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Gabe and Gator truly are democratic and team players as wolves but I think both needed to fight for self-pres there and bus Agua. Gator is in a brutal spot and, I'm not sure if he felt people were reading him as Gator at the time, but any villager worth his salt had to be suspicious of at least one of Agua/Gravy.
yeah amazing day for the village. As I said, really solid villaging, a nice turnaround from the last game.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
fun idea, i wish i didnt fish the account stuff. sorry wolf bros
i didnt defend agua because that would be spotted too easily later. i definitely wanted to live but fighting for it is easier said than done. its easier to come up with words as a villager than it is as a wolf. (thats 3 wolf games for me in a row i think?)
i didnt post in a way to disguise who i was. i mightve done more to seem gabelike. people will at least consider logic behind posts on the gabe account, while gravyhog gets 0 respect
i thought there were 1 or 2 posts that were remarkably, uniquely Gabe-like.
I faced a dilemma regarding the gabe "mistake" as a non posting forum MOD. At the time duck had made his "sigh" reply so duck had read Gabes post and wasn't sure whether to soft delete gabes post and inform the Game mods so they could decide how to proceed or leave the post up. Since duck had obviously seen gabes post i decided that alll players should have the opportunity to see the same post that duck had. However the post was then hard deleted so i PM'ed Baudib to let him know as i think the no editing /deleting posts is about the most sacrosanct rule we have.
so basically should a non playing forum mod delete posts in the game thread. It also came up in the captcha padding posts and was the reason i started the thread for that and i PM'ed BID asking if he wanted me to move the padding posts out of the game thread.
This game was fun