Good luck man
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Good luck man
Funny. Every two years since US pokerz died, I get the bug again. Probably something to do with Game Theory rotating through my teaching schedule every even-year Spring semester. So I'm dabbling at 2nl.
The games have changed. At 2nl there's 3betting light, 4betting light vs. resteals, lots of c/r flops. Fun stuff. I'm running 19/16 basic TAGG in 6max. Still plenty of passive play, but the hands all seem to go multiple streets. Seems like just playing premium hands and betting the shizzle of flops I hit works fine.
I seem to be at least breaking even and relearning the game. Happy that Spoon has started his online course at FTR. Using his methods to retrain myself for the new normal at nanostakes.
Cheers to anyone still reading this. I'm back for a bit!!
BB has ATS 3/3 times from SB and 3/4 times from BTN, has folded 4/5 vs. BTN steal attempts. He steals a lot himself, and the only time he didn't fold to BTN steal attempt was a 3bet. So one of two things is true. He understands stealing and re-stealing, or he's on a nice heater.
CO: 143 BB
Hero (BTN): 105.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 158 BB (VPIP: 36.11, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet: 9.09, Hands: 38)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3:club: A:club:
CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB
Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: T:club: 9:spade:
BB bets 12.5 BB, Hero raises to 96.5 BB and is all-in...
Preflop: I'm making the assumption he 3bets light from BB:
77+ (8*6 = 48 combos)
A9+, Axs (6*16 + 7*4 = 124 combos)
KJ+, K9s+ (2*16 + 2*4 = 40 combos)
76s+ (6*4 = 24 combos)
This is 236 combos out of 1326, or 18%. This range seems to include calling hands, but it's impossible to say given the limited HH's. I don't think he's much wider. I've calculated preflop without including blockers, just to see what the overall percentage would be. Because of my hand, preflop becomes:
77+ (7*6 + 3 = 45 combos, 3 less)
A9+, Axs (6*12 + 6*3 +2 = 92 combos, 32 less)
KJ+, K9s+ (2*16 + 2*4 = 40 combos)
76s+ (6*4 = 24 combos)
This makes 201 combos he could possibly have.
Flop:
Flop AF = 5 and AFq = 83%. He donks:
77+ (48)
AT, A9, A3 (24)
KTs, K9s (6)
87s+ (16)
This makes 94 of 201 combos.
Sets (6)
2 Pair (9)
1 Pair (36)
OESD's (8)
Unimproved PP: QQ+, 99, 88, 77 (36)
This is 95 combos, so I've miscounted something. I'm behind all but the OESD's, but I have equity. The problem is playing the equity. Even in position, calling is going to be difficult.
A3s has only 23% equity against this range. Even if there's air in his range, Hero never has more than 30% equity.
Hero's stack is covered, so he's betting 96.5 BB and wins 19.5B whenever Villain folds. If VF is Villain's fold percentage, then Hero's expected value is:
E(Shove) = VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (.3 * 116 - .7 * 116)
= VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (-.4 * 116 )
= VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (-46.4 )
= VF * 19.5 - 46.4 + VF * 46.4
= VF * 65.9 - 46.4
If we set this = 0, we can find the break-even value for VF:
VF = 46.4 / 65.9 = 70.4%
The shove only works if he's folding at least 70% of the time given he has some air - the situation is worse if he continues with, at worst, OESD's.
He's certainly calling the shove will all sets/2 Pair (15), and likely calling a shove with overpairs JJ+ (21). This is 36 of 95 combos, or close to 40% of flop donk range. So Hero's shove is ill-advised.
OK, Hero has a hand like 88 and 99 in the blinds, it gets opened by the CO or BTN, everyone else folds. What do we do? 3bet? Call? Feels like way too much equity to fold preflop, but how best to play it?
HH as played (2nl)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 230 BB
CO: 503 BB (VPIP: 19.3, PFR: 14.3, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 1,800)
BTN: 76.5 BB
SB: 64.5 BB
SB posts 0.5 BB, Hero posts 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:heart: 9:diamond:
fold, fold, CO raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, CO calls 8 BB
Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: 3:diamond: Q:diamond:
Hero bets 11 BB
Villain's PFR in the CO is 20% with 300 opportunities. He's been 3bet 10 times (as CO), folded 6 times, 4bet 0 times. So we'll assume he plays 20% of his hands, e.g. continues with his Top 8% and folds the other 12%. Even though he hasn't 4bet, my assumption is that he'll 4bet or shove AA, KK and AK (his top 2%).
Ranges:
PFR - 66+, Any 2 T or better (except QT/JT), A2s+, A8o+, 98s+
4bet/shove: AA, KK, AK (28)
Call 3bet: A8s+, ATo+, TT-QQ, KJ, KQ (106)
Fold to 3bet: 66-99, A9o, A8o, A2s-A7s, JT, QT, KT, QJ
Hero makes 5.5 BB whenever Villain folds (60%). With 99, we're folding to any 4bet/shove (10%) which is an 11 BB loss.
EV = .6 * 5.5 - .1 * 11 BB + .3 * ( Playable Equity vs. Call)
EV = 2.2 BB + .3 * PE
Pokerstove says Hero is a 49/51 dog to the calling range above, but Hero is going to have a hard time on high card boards. Let's break down the cards Villain could have on the flop:
Aces - 56 combos
Kings - 32 combos
Queens - 38 combos
Jacks - 38 combos
There's some overlap since he can have more than one Jack or better (AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ). About half the time, Villain has an Ace. Let's suppose Hero donks any non-Ace board, check/folds any board with an Ace, bet/folds all K-high and Q-high boards and bet/calls J-high and worse boards. I may do some math later (like the fact the board comes T-high 30.5% of the time and we'd anticipate our 99 playing well against all of his range except TT, JJ and QQ).
Even though Hero has a slightly higher equity (54%) when he flats Villain's PFR, 3betting is preferable given:
1. Villain is aggressive on the flop - if Villain can both fold and raise, Hero's bet/fold plan on flop works well.
2. Villain doesn't 4bet light or call too wide - this compresses Villain's possible cards into the Broadway range, heavy on A's.
Both considerations are vital. The compressed range makes our bet/fold plan viable, but we have trouble on the turn if he flats. His aggression keeps our life straightforward and profitable postflop.
Interesting HH:
Hero (BB): 105.5 BB
UTG: 185 BB
MP: 98.5 BB
CO: 459.5 BB (VPIP: 24.70, PFR: 20.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 253)
BTN: 153 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 22.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.39, Hands: 334)
SB: 100.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: K:spade:
fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, CO calls 7 BB, fold
Flop: (23.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond: J:heart: 6:club:
Hero bets 15 BB, CO calls 15 BB
Turn: (53.5 BB, 2 players) K:club:
Hero bets 25.5 BB, fold
Preflop. CO has 93% fold to 3bet and a wide enough "raise first in" from the CO (29%) to make him a good target for the squeeze. The BTN is tougher. He only folds 38% to preflop 3bets. However, he has already ruled out the top 6-7% of his hands by calling. CO will do the same - he'll fold most of his range, 4bet his top 3% or so and call with a narrow ranged of mostly Broadway cards. Let's try some ranges:
CO: 22+,A2+,K8s+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,JTo,T8s+,98s (29%)
He's folding everything but AJs, AQ, KJs+, KQ, TT-QQ, with AA, KK, and AK being 4bet (6.5%, 2/3 of which is calling. So CO is folding about 75% of his hands to the squeeze.
BTN: He calls with about 15% of his hands, 3bets with 5%. If he's 3betting AJs+, JJ+, AQ+, KQs, that leaves:
TT-66,ATs-A4s,KJs-K8s,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
What can he continue with? He does have position, so he'll have something like:
TT, 99, ATs, A9s, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs
which has decent but not overwhelming equity vs. KQ.
Preflop Summary.
The squeeze works well when the first villain to act has a large PFR but small 4/bet / calling range. The BTN has already limited his hand, and even with position is going to have trouble post against Hero's range. As in the 3bet with 99 in above post, we again have a situation where the preflop raise is effective not so much because of the playable equity against the range faced when called, but the lack of equity against all of the big hands we can rule out.
Flop.
Presuming we get 4bet by AA, KK and AK, when CO calls we believe he might have:
AQ, AJs (18)
KQ, KJs (18)
TT-QQ (14)
Of these 50 combos, only 5 of them have a Jack in them, so this is a perfect board to donk into.
Both the 99 hand and KQ hand I'm more interested in their Unopened PFR stat than any other stat, when deciding to 3b these.
Both of these hands would be reasonable calls pre as well.
As played - 99 I think is fine. cbetting sometimes and c/c some other times.
KQ hand - Turn is close. Not close in the sense that I don't think we're ahead, but I think we may be narrowing his continuing range to hands that beat us (unless he's a big fish). I just can't see many 88/99 stuff peeling. Maybe TT/QQ would peel. It's not well balanced, but I don't mind a check on the turn fairly often (with intention of calling). If you bet and get jammed, it's also pretty gross.
Wow, advice from Griff in the op thread! Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I read this before I played tonight, and I've been taking a close look at these types of hands. Having equity oop can be hard to deal with, but if I put V on a range, I'm finding I can bet/float with reasonable accuracy.
I just found the "Raise first in" stat on PT4 a couple days ago. Do you have it on your HUD? I don't tend to raise light pre except when this stat would be more accurate than PFR.
The games have been fun. I was up 3 BI Sunday, down a BI yesterday, up one BI today (early morning Tuesday, also known as Monday night). Earning the rake. Clearing the bonus. I need about 10 more BI to move up.
I'm probably prone to jumping to quick conclusions based on small sample sizes too quickly. But if someone has two/three instances to open for a steal in an unopened pot and they take those opportunities, I'm quickly assuming that it's not just random variance and they have explicitly incorporated stealing into their gameplan (ie: are very wide).
Similarly I generally extrapolate that someone with a high steal from BTN/CO, is probably lighter than most on HJ as well.
I'm playing bodog now (anonymous - thus low sample sizes across the board) - sometimes these small sample size adjustments get me into trouble, but generally seem reasonable.
In general when widening your 3b ranges OOP I would ask yourself where the money is coming from. Are they folding too much pre-flop? If so, be more likely to 3b wide pre but c/f if they call. Are they calling too many 3b, and folding too many flops? If so, then be more likely to 3b them wide and half pot cb, but shut down when called. Etc.
Good luck moving up!
Sage advice. Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I have a couple of regs with ATS > 40% and Fold to 3bet > 90%. So I can 3bet lighter, keep hands like TT or KQ in my flatting range. Both ways are money.
Now I'll be thinking, not just about stats, but also where the money's coming from.
Hey, FTR, I'm back!
I was a winning player in 2007 and 2008 when this thread started. Dabbled a bit in 2015, nothing serious. I'm back now after 9 years of not playing a single hand of poker and 16 years since I was last a consistently winning poker player at 25nl 6-max.
I found a few stray pennies on ACR, so I'm trying to turn $25 into a bankroll. Using the 25 buy-in rule for proper bankroll management, this will be my journey:
$50 for 2nl
$125 for 5nl
$250 for 10nl
$625 for 25nl
I hope to regather some classic threads, read up on classic strategy and also learn from new content. I believe that getting better at poker is quite simple: "put your opponent on a range." I intend to post hand histories and work on my game.
Best of luck at the tables! See y'all around!!
damn, blast from the past. glhf! hmu if you want to chat poker.