agree.
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agree.
I am just putting out my two most likely villagers. Incase I get killed tonight. Not because of anything between you guys. Just my feeling
:facepalm:
The idea behind the theory is two players who based on their play are unlikely to both be on the same side. Not pick your two most likely villagers! I'm tempted to lynch you just for thinking that.
if we kill jkds, and rule out jyms, jv and me for the fingering, we have to choose 2 out of
hoopy
pascal
rong
daven
luco
i think luco seems v v likely to be village. to me he seems like a villager caught in his own world.
hoopy has been conspicuously uninvolved but ive thought this about him before when he was a villager. he could be a wolf but i dont think its as likely as the rest of the bunch.
daven might be a good choice, but i dont know whether to put him with rong or pascal. so my default is just to pick rong and pascal.
burn jkds now and tomorrow rong or pascal finger eachother. if one wont do it, he is a witch. if neither does it then we found 2.
let's say we pick me to finger you tomorrow, because one of us is a witch. i then get killed in the night by the witches - does that mean you're a witch, because they knew you were going to die anyway, or does it mean you're a villager because they want us to lynch you and it looks suspicious that i'm lynched as it saves you getting fingered. the second one is level 0 thinking so it's not exactly hard to go level 1Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
if youre both villagers the witches shouldnt kill either of you. they just kill a bystander and win the game
so if neither of us are lynched wouldn't best EV move be to not finger?
only if we lynch a witch tonight.
if we miss tonight then fingering is only option tomorrow
if we miss tonight I'll snap-finger anyone that bolds anyone tomorrow
Must have missed it, I don't want to lynch you today and think you slightly lean towards villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Sad but true. Hoping to run better tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Pascal is still my top pick though.
I still get the feeling Hoopy is just cruising the thread looking for his name. I still think without any input from him he's our best shot right now.
there's only 3 people who shouldn't like this plan
what else is there to do
I think the only thing wrong with the plan is our solid "witch" lynch tonight. We really need a witch.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
If we lynch JKDS and he flips witch I think Luco is still a good bet
If we lynch Pascal and he flips, I am not sure who we make finger tomorrow
If we lynch Hoopy or Daven do we have another chocie to finger tomorrow?
If told to finger someone I will only listen to gabe, Rong and JV
jyms/luco pick 3 people to lynch/finger/finger. we only need 1 hit to be in great shape
saying only who is your top pick is only part of the issue
we need a set of 3 that can never all be villagers. we should be in agreement enough as a town to have an advantage
luco/jkds/jyms for me
Pascal, hoopy, jkds.
Despite rong's obsession there's little else to pin on him.
Hoopy, JKDS and Pascal
although JKDS, Luco and Rong is a gaurentee as well
i disagree. here was the small post i made about himQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
my senses tell me he was pushing these tangential things because he was a witch trying to make a story. i think normally as a villager he wouldnt get so involved in this storyline.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
im not sure hes a witch but imo there is enough to pin on him to throw him in the mix
gabe i take it your 3 are jkds rong and me?
in which case lynching jkds seems like an easy start. i'm happy to finger someone i'm convinced is a witch (otherwise we lose me) so if someone sets out a case for rong i may be convinced
i know im a villager. also jackvance said he would bet everything that i was a villager. i cant imagine a scenario where he would say that, where he would be wrong. a witch could say that, and a villager could have that read, but a witch never says that if im a fellow witch. and if hes not a witch, he is saying that because he believes it. so in conclusion: I'M A TOWNIE
since i can almost prove im a townie, the people who i think are also town should matter. luco/jyms/jv all seem town, and all want hoopy/pascal/jkds (in jv's last post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2143682 he says jkds, pascal, hoopy, or daven).
how could any of these 3 (jyms,jv,luco) be witches yet we all agree?
not entirely sure what you're saying, it doesnt really make sense
that said, i'm happy to assume youre a villager, not seen you post anything which makes me suspect you. i'm holding on to my suspicion about luco but it seems we all agree on jkds so let's lynch him tonight and you tell me who to finger and i'll finger them
any combo of jkds, you, hoopy, rong. i prefer you over hoopy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pascal
maybe id be OK with [hoopy,rong,pascal] if JKDS can conjure up a good witchhunting post. the only way we lose this way would be for those 3 [] to all be innocent, which would mean 3 wolves would come out of (jyms, jv, gabe, jkds, daven luco), which is hard to imagine.
but i very much want to pick from those 4 at the top. if someone can link a couple of them in the right way, im listening
JKDS lynch and pascal + daven finger tomorrow.
Name mentioned.....creating response post.....contacting server.....post sent.....end ezgame script.Quote:
I still get the feeling Hoopy is just cruising the thread looking for his name. I still think without any input from him he's our best shot right now.
i'm a villager so let me finger someone. i'll do it right now if you wantQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Not on your life. The plan is in motion, just not the players
we don't want a villager to finger someone. we want to select 2 witches, tell them to finger each other and laugh all the to victory when they wont
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pascal
These two posts lead me to some interesting thoughts. We could be wrong with Pascal, so making him finger tomorrow is gold. I think we lynch hoopy (really? JKDS, pascal and Daven??) and let pascal finger our choice tomorrow
If we're looking for 3 people with a guaranteed wolf, look at the post count. There's 3 people with considerably less posts than the rest of us. I would bet anything that there is at least one wolf there, there always is, every game.
I wanna hear more from jkds
just fwiw if you make me finger someone and i'm wrong we take out two villagers, if the plan is to take out a witch or the fingerer is a witch then you better give me a witch to point at as you're 50% wrong already
Stating the obvious here hehe. If we get a witch and you finger a villager we are screwed. That's why we want village input.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pascal
How long do we have left today?
Hoopy is a witch I'm sure.
im trying to compare who hoopy, pascal and jkds all have in their top 3 list (jkds mentioned 4 in his last post but one is me so i can rule it out). i think with enough good thinkin' we can make a perfect 3 way hedge
jkds: daven hoopy jyms
pascal: luco jkds jyms
hoopy: jkds pascal daven
im liking [hoopy daven pascal]
the fact that pascal and hoopy both put jkds makes jkds more innocent?? guess? 2 of them listed daven but he's not been a prominent target...hmmmmmm
although if rong is a witch, we would likely lose. he suggested going after the bottom 3 in post count, who are pascal daven and hoopy. hard to see him saying this, if he was a witch along with one of them being a witch. so maybe thats a good reason to not just pick the bottom 3 on the post count list
Hoopy, daven & pascal make up the bottom 3 posters (by some distance) as I said in my post above. There's always a wolf in there, always. I'm equally meh on all of them.
you are meh on them but havent named a different set of 3? stop slacking rong
or is that your way of saying u want to choose those 3?
Hoopy bolded Pascal, rescinded later and bolded JKDS. Why not bold your fellow witches huh, they won't get mad and come after you, plus it dissociates you (like wolves like to do). Would be funny if this really is their team.
lets lynch jkds, and have hoopy finger daven tomorrow
all aboard
ignore that last post
lynch hoopy
tomorrow jkds fingers daven
if he doesnt after 15 hours or something then we finger him ourselves. if jkds or daven is killed we "vote" on who takes their place
I could get on this
I could also switch JKDS with Pascal depending on the dead tonight.
ya but we know jkds acted like he wanted daven to die, so if he doesnt follow through with fingering daven it will be extra shady, which makes it easier for us. but obv im suspicious of pascal too
3 votes for hoopy right? me jyms jv
I'd like to choose luco, JKDS and someone else. I've been harping on about those two for a long time. With good dam reason imo. But the only person who agrees with me on luco is pascal who isn't exactly doing much to convince people of anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
What I'm saying in my above post is exactly what I said. That pool (hoopy, pascal, daven) will guarantee us at least 1 wolf.
This game has been weird as we haven't really had the usual votes and lynches to sieve through and the post count is much lower than normal which has made it more difficult to spot low posters, but this day has been busy enough that the bottom end is starting to separate from the rest of the group. You could also argue that due to their lower activity they'll be worth getting rid of before dday anyway. But I've not looked through their posts to have more reason than post count. I've paid attention as I've read through, but as I said, they've come access meh, hard to say much about any of them, but isn't that normally the way with the lower posters.
Luco had him as #2
Also, I'm still of the mind that the JKDS/luco connection exists too. That whole wagon and non lynch has me baffled
I think if we have JKDS in the list of 3 we should also have luco.
If we're rolling on hoopy I'll come along. I only tied him in because of rong but he's far from worst pick today.
if you think taking the bottom 3 [hoopy pascal daven] lands a wolf, and at the same time you jkds is a good choice, AND you find yourself agreeing with pascal on luco, then having the 3 be [hoopy daven jkds] seems like it works for youQuote:
Originally Posted by rong
It's the key to today. Still can't make sense of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms
isnt the whole idea that they are tied together? if one is a wolf the other is more likely a wolf, so why do we need both of them?Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
[hoopy jkds daven] is making more and more sense
Gabe, I thought the whole idea was a group of two with at least one being a wolf.
I think that at least 1 and possibly 2 of JKDS & Luco will be wolves.
Likewise, I think at least one of Pascal, Hoopy & Daven will be a wolf.
I don't necessarily think that one of the group of jkds, hoopy & Daven will be a wolf, although I think there's a reasonable chance that it contains one.
So in order for me to be happy that I definitely think our group of 3 contains a wolf, I need it to be one of the above two groups.
The way Gabe is running the show now, it would be sick if say him and JV or him and Jyms are two of the wolves. In some respects I hope the wolves eat him tonight just to put my mind at ease.
yes. it was my understanding that most of the reasoning for luco being a wolf related to jkds also being a wolf (wasnt this the whole reason you were calling out how luco sounded in his posts?). so if jkds is a wolf 0% of the time, luco is also rarely a wolf. since those 2 players are correlated, having both of them on the 3[] list hurts our chances.Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
in other words, when can luco be a wolf while jkds is a villager? the answer is non zero, but most of the luco case was built on jkds being a wolf. so we dont really need to add luco to the 3[] list
are we waiting on Daven and JKDS who neither has posted on this page?
also you say "Likewise, I think at least one of Pascal, Hoopy & Daven will be a wolf."
earlier you cited pascal agreeing with your luco allegation. it seems like the best of both worlds to replace pascal on this list with jkds. maximum witch hunt success distribution
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Well, you're somewhat correct. The whole towning thing is what connected Luco to JKDS and grabbed my attention initially, but his whole demeanor and terminology in general makes it seem like he's being coached and or discussing things away from the game thread. This ties Luco to any more experienced player and makes him my favoured lynch target (most likely wolf). However JKDS, as picked up by others has been wolfy, this combined wonderfully with my luco theory, but either way they are both as a whole my favourite 2 targets.
Gabe and jv are the only ones who trust me. I have to hope the other two villagers out there can trust in them if they can't trust me yet.
I dunno, I've said my piece enough times now. It is what it is, this thing is prob solvable if I get lynched / night killed with a bit of careful reading.
I hope I've at least contributed. Will get a nice long post in soon and see what night brings.
Still really want pascal because I have a way stronger read on him than hoopy but I will follow gabe and jv. There is always the possibility I'm wrong.
Thoughts on pascal / rong / jyms?
When I said I'd finger rong, jyms quickly questioned the value of chasing a villager that would finger when cornered.
Not sold on it, rong said slow down when jkds hit three votes.
also the more i think about it, its harder for rong to be a witch with this post
Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
I cited pascal agreeing me not to show my solidarity with hi but to show how futile my case seemed to be. You're intentionally taking me out of context.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
not taking you out of context just trying to persuade you [jkds hoopy daven] is a good one
Why are you still posting names. Just pick 3 and be done with it. We are using the choices to come to a consensus. If you keep throwing out new names how does that help?
^ lazy post by me. but i dont have much else to say as to why i dont like jkds+luco in the 3[]
gabe - hoopy
luco - pascal
hoopy - jkds
rong - luco
jyms - hoopy
jv - hoopy
pascal - luco
jkds - jyms
no vote - daven
hoopy = 3
pascal = 1
jkds = 1
luco = 2
jyms = 1
Day ends about 22 hours from now. 11:00 AM PST
This was meant for LucoQuote:
Originally Posted by jyms
I gotta start quoting the threads I am talking to/about
I thought JKDS had rescinded my name?Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I'm guilty of that every time I use my phone which is most of the time.
It would appear the four of us already have a consensus in hoopy. Will switch soonish.
yes but we should agree on who is the fingerteam tomorrow i think. i think it puts the witches in a tougher spot