Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

Ong, I'm not responding to your posts anymore, consider yourself on ignore.

I'm trying to get the villager in Rascal to come out and play.

if he's a wolf it really doesn't matter, DUCY

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Morning

Lets talk night kills. Imo, it was between Gabe, ong, and BID. Each had strong reasons to be a villager, and each was near cleared by the entire village. So why BID? 1) Theres the "oh noes, gabe is still alive...must be a wolf...." line. 2) BID is on the right track. 3) Gabe/ong are on the wrong track, or (and this is most likely imo) 4) its the "I would never kill BID, therefore im a villager" line.

Theres also second level stuff to make it look like one of those reasons. Thats way too fps tho.

I think BID was killed so the wolf could say he'd never make the kill. Which means its baudib, and I got tricked off of my read for like the billionth time this year.

Even if im wrong, its never gabe/ong, and its gator only 1% of the time. So long as you three trust each other then we never lose.

Lynch Baudib
Lynch Rascal

@Ong: I voted that way because the order of the lynches is largely irrelevant. Its one of MMM, Rascal, or Baudib; and we have more than enough lynches to get there.

@Gator: The Luco, Baudib, Gator, Gabe list wasnt made by choosing those 4. It was made by eliminating the other four.

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I don't follow your logic here. At first you say the NK should be between gabe, ong and BID, but you're surprised that it's BID and give some FPS logic as to why it shouldn't be BID.

This doesn't look like villager thought processes to me.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I did some quick math and this is true. Assume we lynch baud and rascal today. That leaves Ong,Gabe, Gator, JKDS and Drew. One of Gator,Ong, Gabe gets lynched. Let's say Gator. That leaves Ong, Gabe, JKDS and Drew. As long as the wolf is one of JKDS and Drew the game is over.

Wolf JKDS would never say this unless he was HIGHLY confident he could swing toward one of us three the second half of the last day.

rescind JKDS
lynch baudib

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This is the second time you've listed Drew in the live players. As I said before, if this is a derp clear attempt, it's failing. I still think you're villa, but this is odd IMO.

Rascal let's compare notes on Gator.

why do you think he's villa?

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Originally Posted by baudib

Rascal let's compare notes on Gator.

why do you think he's villa?

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I'm caught up now.

I have gator as villa because hs is rereading the thread and trying to solve the game. He's pulled up quotes from early in the game today and pointed out some inconsistencies. I haven't played with him before, but his posting seems pure to me.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm caught up now.

I have gator as villa because hs is rereading the thread and trying to solve the game. He's pulled up quotes from early in the game today and pointed out some inconsistencies. I haven't played with him before, but his posting seems pure to me.

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Gator is the best wolf among the FTR regs, FWIW, (or it's close between him and Gabe) and one of his hallmarks is that when he's a wolf, you'll consider him one of the best villagers in the game.

But I agree with you. I think I'm OK losing to Gator.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm assuming that you meant JKDS here instead of BID since you voted him.

If it's a derp clear attempt, it's a bad one.

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No, unfortunately I did mean BID. I spent most of my afternoon thinking there were 7 left so while I wasn't looking at BID's posts because I knew he was dead I kept adding him into analysis because in my head I knew there had to be 7 players. I actually did it a couple of times.

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator is the best wolf among the FTR regs, FWIW, (or it's close between him and Gabe) and one of his hallmarks is that when he's a wolf, you'll consider him one of the best villagers in the game.

But I agree with you. I think I'm OK losing to Gator.

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You only lose to me this game if you are a wolf. If you are a villager you need to hope I win it for the team.

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator is the best wolf among the FTR regs, FWIW, (or it's close between him and Gabe) and one of his hallmarks is that when he's a wolf, you'll consider him one of the best villagers in the game.

But I agree with you. I think I'm OK losing to Gator.

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Good to know, but I hope I'm right on him.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

No, unfortunately I did mean BID. I spent most of my afternoon thinking there were 7 left so while I wasn't looking at BID's posts because I knew he was dead I kept adding him into analysis because in my head I knew there had to be 7 players. I actually did it a couple of times.

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Yeah, I pointed out the other one too that you'll come across when you catch up.

FWIW I don't think Gator tries to derp-clear himself, although he appears to be smitten with the term and likes to use it a lot.

Like, he should know who he just killed last night.

Here's where I stand at the moment:

Gator - Villa: For reasons I posted above.
Ong - Villa Lean: I can't see wolf Ong going at baudib this hard.
JKDS - Neutral to Slight Wolf Lean: I keep going back and forth on JKDS. I need to reread him tbh.
gabe - Wolf Lean: I'm suspicious of him because of the BID NK and his posting so far today hasn't given me any villa vibes.
baudib - Wolf Lean: Mainly because I've never baudib flip flop in his voting this much. In this game, he's pushing Ong, but then voting me and then switches to JKDS. In addition, some of your posts have been inconsistent, which isn't normally what I expect from baudib.

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Originally Posted by baudib

FWIW I don't think Gator tries to derp-clear himself, although he appears to be smitten with the term and likes to use it a lot.

Like, he should know who he just killed last night.

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I agree. If it was a derp clear attempt it was very poorly executed IMO.

there's nothing inconsistent Rascal, I'm just changing my mind a lot between pretty close equities.


literally in my head this morning, before seeing the reveal, I went from "Well it has to be Rascal but I want to YOLO JKDS" to "WOW THAT NIGHTKILL IS TOTALLY JKDS" to "Meh only Rascal probably kills BID there" in like 5 mins.

if that's what you mean by inconsistent then you're flat out lying because that's no different than any EOD in every turbo ever.

alright I sorta expected a bit more but I think Rascal is a villager, ~84% percent confidence

you can MAJ me now Rascal.

incidentally Rascal, Gator, whom we both have as villa, went from "wolf JKDS probably never does this" to voting him within like 5 posts or something.

it's just that type of game.

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Originally Posted by baudib

there's nothing inconsistent Rascal, I'm just changing my mind a lot between pretty close equities.


literally in my head this morning, before seeing the reveal, I went from "Well it has to be Rascal but I want to YOLO JKDS" to "WOW THAT NIGHTKILL IS TOTALLY JKDS" to "Meh only Rascal probably kills BID there" in like 5 mins.

if that's what you mean by inconsistent then you're flat out lying because that's no different than any EOD in every turbo ever.

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I'm not lying, I quoted your inconsistencies. Go look at what I pointed out.

This isn't a turbo, so that analogy doesn't work. In a turbo I react and soul read. In a long game, I take my time to read the game and point out the things that ping me.

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Originally Posted by baudib

alright I sorta expected a bit more but I think Rascal is a villager, ~84% percent confidence

you can MAJ me now Rascal.

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I'm not MAJ'ing anyone right now, and you saying this pings me as well.

We have plenty of time to try and sort things out since we're only about 15 hours into this day.

I'd like to hear from JKDS and gabe since they haven't posted much of anything today.

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Originally Posted by baudib

incidentally Rascal, Gator, whom we both have as villa, went from "wolf JKDS probably never does this" to voting him within like 5 posts or something.

it's just that type of game.

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I missed that on reading tonight. I'll have to go look at his progression on that.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm not lying, I quoted your inconsistencies. Go look at what I pointed out.

This isn't a turbo, so that analogy doesn't work. In a turbo I react and soul read. In a long game, I take my time to read the game and point out the things that ping me.

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are you talking about post 682? I explained that already.

I've pointed out the many ridiculous wolfy things Ong said about me today and it fell on deaf ears. It's obvious he isn't going to get lynched today and the village needs to see my flip before they start putting heat on anyone else. In reality it seems like everyone is just willing to let Ong win.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm not lying, I quoted your inconsistencies. Go look at what I pointed out.

This isn't a turbo, so that analogy doesn't work. In a turbo I react and soul read. In a long game, I take my time to read the game and point out the things that ping me.

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I play turbos the same way I play any other game. My post/minute in huge mashes translate roughly the same as my turbo rate. Here it's much lower because no one posts more than 20 times a day so there isn't much to talk about.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

This interaction between gator and baudid make me think puts gator in my villa pile and baudib as the likely wolf.

First baudid thinks I'm the wolf and then he says he doesn't think I'm wolfy. I really don't like the flip-flopping by baudib here.

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FWIW Ong says exactly the same thing about me. Why does that not ping you?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

This isn't just a case of baudib being wolfy. This is also a case of everyone else being villagery. Even rascal, tbh. My problem with rascal is that I kinda expect a solid enough wolf game from him that this could be it. But he's villagery. There's only one person who isn't.

This is a no brainer really.

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I said I had you as the wolf because I could make a case for everyone else being a villager and but not you.

Rascal, also, after this lynch, ask Ong what made him decide that MMM was town but he didn't try to campaign for anyone else to rescind on him.

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Originally Posted by baudib

incidentally Rascal, Gator, whom we both have as villa, went from "wolf JKDS probably never does this" to voting him within like 5 posts or something.

it's just that type of game.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I missed that on reading tonight. I'll have to go look at his progression on that.

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I went back and read thru that and it's apparent that gator was rereading JKDS since it took over an hour and a half for him to say he needed to go back and reread JKDS and his post where he voted for him.

After going back and rereading his analysis, it reinforces my feelings on gator being a villager and puts JKDS back into my wolf pile.

yeah, I agree.

but why am I wolfy for flip-flopping

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Originally Posted by baudib

FWIW Ong says exactly the same thing about me. Why does that not ping you?

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Because I've seen you do this in both roles and I haven't seen that from Ong. In the games that I've seen him wolf, I haven't seen him be this antagonistic.

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Originally Posted by baudib

I said I had you as the wolf because I could make a case for everyone else being a villager and but not you.

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Fair enough.

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Originally Posted by baudib

yeah, I agree.

but why am I wolfy for flip-flopping

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I don't remember you flip-flopping this much before.

shrug.

whatever, I'm not important.

This game has me flip-flopping some too.

It may be because of the game state that we're in. With the lynch of Luco with only 1 post, there's no spew to work with so the wolf doesn't have anything to hide or spew. I think that may make this game tougher than normal.

yep it's like a turbo where you lynch the wolf in a runaway vote D1, the seer gets killed and you've got nothing.

True

I think that's what has me jumping at every thing I see.

FWIW Gator and Gabe are probably too good as wolves to clear this light this early, but I really feel good about them.

Gabe in particular. I don't actually know who "led" the MMM lynch (he blamed me for some reason, no ragrets) but I felt I was mindmelding with Gabe when he pointed out all of MMM's weird posts. I think Gator said similar things.

I always find wordy, over-explained reads to be extremely wolfy, but if Gabe was faking those reactions it's pretty sick.

Gator claims reading Gabe as a wolf is easy, so maybe ask him for his opinion.

I'm out. if I'm still alive later I'm going to be really annoyed.

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Originally Posted by baudib

FWIW Gator and Gabe are probably too good as wolves to clear this light this early, but I really feel good about them.

Gabe in particular. I don't actually know who "led" the MMM lynch (he blamed me for some reason, no ragrets) but I felt I was mindmelding with Gabe when he pointed out all of MMM's weird posts. I think Gator said similar things.

I always find wordy, over-explained reads to be extremely wolfy, but if Gabe was faking those reactions it's pretty sick.

Gator claims reading Gabe as a wolf is easy, so maybe ask him for his opinion.

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I'd have to go back and reread who pushed the MMM lynch, but when I was reading BID, he said in post #314 that the MMM lynch was pushed by gator and gabe.

I want credit too. No ragrets. Would kill again.

Rascal, when did you ever see me wolf in a long game? I've been a wolf here but not any games you've been in, in 3 of Top Tier Tom's vanilla + games and in the Monkey Banana no-reveal game, and that's it.

I mostly only play mashes now and I've never been a wolf in a mash.

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Originally Posted by baudib

I want credit too. No ragrets. Would kill again.

Rascal, when did you ever see me wolf in a long game? I've been a wolf here but not any games you've been in, in 3 of Top Tier Tom's vanilla + games and in the Monkey Banana no-reveal game, and that's it.

I mostly only play mashes now and I've never been a wolf in a mash.

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I thought I played in a mash where you were a wolf.

I've never been a wolf in a mash. The only mash we've been in was that minimash on MU and the GoT, I was a villager and you were an orange wolf or something.

That might be worth checking out.

Note to villagers: After I'm dead DO NOT autolynch Rascal just cuz "lol POE"

Rascal has been absent quite a bit from the game but he laid slank cover in the signup. I think the only real thing that points to him being the wolf is killing Drew, because I legit think it's a dumb kill for anyone else to make. Drew wanted to lynch Rascal, and Rascal's not that familiar with us, and hasn't wolfed here yet.

I'm doing an ISO on Rascal's wolf game in GoT, and granted that's a multi-faction, 69-player game, but his posting is night and day.

I hope the formatting on this works or else it will be impossible to read. Sorry in advance.

First off, he makes tons of posting giving excuses as to why he's not in the thread, and promises to be back later.

Spoiler: Show

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm only around during the evening because of work. I only made the ITA yesterday evening, missed all of Monday's worked late today and jumped on the phone to try and help. I can't post during work except sometimes when I leave for lunch.


I had to work extra today and just got off. I'm still in the parking lot about to make the drive home. Then I'll be back in the thread, just like last night.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Sorry to hear that. I've liked your play this game and I'm doing my best to contrinute on my limited time. I'm heading home now. I'll be back ITT in a bit.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

grabbing dinner, be back in about 20

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

As I stated in the sign-up thread and is usual for me, I normally can only interact after work and sometimes at lunch. The amount of posting in this thread is overwhelming and I'm trying to do my best. But, yes my game yesterday was meah.


Last night I planned to be in the thread more, but I had to take the wife out to dinner and then had a horrible headache and went to bed early. I feel better today, so I hopefully will be productive today.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Hey guys, checking in during lunch for a few.


Wow, bad night last night.


Any cliffs for today other than the chartz suq reposted above?

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Stuff like that is literally probably 8%-10% of his posts in this game (only 100). And it wasn't just that he had excuses, most of which were probably legitimate, it's that he had zero sustained presence in the thread ever and makes it a point of saying how busy he is in all of his posting bursts.

I think the most noticeable thing about Rascal's wolf game (and granted, it was almost a year ago) is that he offered almost no original thoughts ever.

Almost all of his posts involve him quoting another post and making a really simple comment on it, or trying to look helpful, or talking about game mechanics. The trying to look helpful posts came in the form of talk about lore and stuff like, "HAY GUIZE WHO SHOULD I SHOOT IN ITAS?" or asking for cliffs on what was going on. Clicking through some of these responses, it's quite clear that a huge % of them were responding to someone saying, "Hey bro, you're wolfy AF."

Spoiler: Show

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Originally Posted by TheNothing

your whole entrance right here is wolfy imo

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm just trying to catch up a bit on the game while I'm on lunch break. No chance of catching up on the thread, but I did notice some drama going on with several people.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Tom, should I shoot suq now or what for his possible peek?

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This was in response to a very long post calling him out as "underwhelming." After 7,000 posts in a 69-player game, he had 4 villa reads.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I play this game mostly by tone since I don't have a lot of time as I've said and you can see by my post count. I try to interact with people as it helps me wolf hunt better and clear myself.


I haven't played enough mish-mashes to get the mechanics and the multi-faction stuff going on here has got me confused.


This is where I'm at though:


Villas (based on what I've seen as trying to solve the game):
TTT
Digger
boner
Pimp


Don't really have my own unique wolf leans that aren't sponging thh.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Thanks for actually reading my posts and not just asking me to defend why I wasn't here and then saying all I do is complain that I can't be in the thread.


I'm trying my best for the village here and it should be easier to keep up and contribute since the post count is going down and I won't be overwhelmed. (There I go again with the excuses, but RL is RL.)

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

And he just posted terribly when it was his turn to get shot. It's basically all, "Hey, I haven't done much, but what I've done has been pro-villa. I've listened to the villa captains and done what I've been told to (i.e. shooting at outed wolves).

Spoiler: Show

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Yesterday I shot at Suq (dead wolf) in a crosspost that didn't count, then I shot at Leo (outted wolf) with a miss.


I also made a read on accobra as a villa when most had him as a wolf when asked to make some reads. Accobra flipped villa.


I made a shot tonight that I honestly don't remember who it was. It was directed by TTT (villa captian) and missed.


I've done what I can to help the villa.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Read my post. It was asked what I contributed and there it is. It's not a lot, but it's all pro villa.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Kill this guy if he shoots me.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

:thumb: Please do. I'm doing my best to help the village. I've only been pro-villa. Look at all of my posts if you don't believe me. There's much wolfier targets out there.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

Also, go look at digger's villas lists from I think EOD yesterday or start of today. He had me in his villa pile.

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I'm here to answer questions and contribute the best I can.

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And so on and so on.

They arent lynching pascal after you, they're lynching me after you. A final day with either one of us alive is far worse than a final day us both dead.

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Originally Posted by JKDS

They arent lynching pascal after you, they're lynching me after you. A final day with either one of us alive is far worse than a final day us both dead.

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Rascal's probably dying after me like 70%.

If you're a villager you're going to be in a really tough spot after I'm gone.

No one is going to bother to read this either, but I found some posts from Ong's most recent wolf game, and his villager game where we nommed him on D1 because he was playing so well.

Villager game

Spoiler: Show

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm pretty sure we should just blindly follow keith until we lynch a villager.

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This one is post 51, tossing out those villa reads with serious DGAF swag:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I got village reads on doobs, baudib and jkds. Everyone else is a wolf.

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This is in response to JKDS saying Ong feels like a villager:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

So me towning you quickly on d1 doesn't alarm you?

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Note that Ong knows he gave JKDS a town lean really quickly, so quickly he thinks it should be alarming to JKDS. He's both giving a read and testing JKDS.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Hi bigred and aubrey. Have some villager points for sounding like villagers.

rescind

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Aw bless rong doesn't like my reaction to mojo laming a vague question at him. It's kinda cute that dan is still trying to read me when he knows he sucks at doing so. I've given up trying to read him.

And luco thinks I'm wolfy? Well that should prove to you I'm a villager, right?

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I like this post because Ong is very playful here without being abrasive.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Aubrey is a villager. She's the person who has nailed me as villager for exactly the right reason. I guess she could be a wolf who thinks I've already shown my hand and is buddying me, but I doubt it. I believe her.

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Here's Aubrey's reason for saying Ong is a villager:
[QUOTE=aubreymcfate;2217015]I have no real reads *sigh*

ong would be more tense and less carefree if he was a wolf, which i base on my experience wolfing with him.

ong would be more tense and less carefree if he was a wolf

The feeling I get from Ong, as I have mentioned before, is that he's been awfully #tryhard from the beginning of the game, and even more so after the Luco lynch. We basically luck boxed the shit out of that lynch, and if you're a villager you know you were feeling pretty good about it. Ong's attitude and relentless drive to control the lynch seems off.

Here's where Ong gives his wolf reads:

Spoiler: Show

This one on MMM is like an hour into the game

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Haha MMM got wolf and he's already been found out.

Good luck buddy.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Holy shit daven is a wolf. Props to those who sniffed him out.

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Here is a response to Wuf, who says we should turbo lynch MMM, and then turbo lynch Daven.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

This is the least pro village thing I've seen posted so far.

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Those posts from villager Ong are definitely carefree, fluid and spontaneous. He doesn't explain shit. He points out things that are villagery. His strongest wolf lean is Daven and he just says, "holy shit, Daven is a wolf! props to whoever pointed it out." He doesn't drone on and on "XYZ means Daven is a wolf, and ABC also means Daven is a wolf. Also, consider that 1-2-3 means Daven is super wolfy.

What Ong does as a wolf is he over explains things, and talks about things that don't matter at all

Here is Ong's early salvos at me, after I said that Boog was slightly wolfy after 1 post (where he said basically nothing). I already went through a bout with Luco (also a wolf) over this, and told everyone to STFU about it because it obviously wasn't even a thing.

This is how I caught Ong and basically the entire wolf team 60 posts into the game

Spoiler: Show

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

How is boog slightly wolfy anyway? That's like saying drew is. boog's one and only post might is literally the nullest thing in the world. In fact, if you look up "null" in the dictionary, it'll say "boog votes jkds".

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

baudib, I asked you this. Don't be rude now.

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Originally Posted by baudib

Ong, do not make points about things you know are unimportant just to look like you are doing something.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Nice dismissal. Is that how you're going to respond to questions that you don't want to answer?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

lynch baudib

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Here's where I'm at...

Wolf equity
Baudib 77%
Wufwugy 44%
Hoopy 35%
Luco 35%
Boog 31%
JKDS 28%
Bid 27%
Rong 22%
Rascal 15%
Gabe 11%
Rilla 5%

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This post is classic Ong filling the airwaves with nothingness

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

baudib I just wasn't going to let you ignore me.

Yeah you seem like a villager to me. But you can be a high content wolf, no sweat. I have no intention of actually lynching you today. I don't give a crap if you think I'm a wolf or not, what I do care about is that you're not allowed to brush off questions, no matter how trivial they might seem.

Why are hoopy luco and wuf the relevant subjects? Why not boog baudib ong? I'll have my own opinions about what i find interesting, tyvm.

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Remember the Villager Ong, tossing out soul reads like free candy? He continues his attack on me for giving Rilla, Rilla of all fucking people, an early villager read. As if he thinks Rilla is some awesome wolf we should be worried about when he clearly entered the thread with mega villagery presence:

Ong actually bothers to argue with me about this when I made it clear I was never going to worry about him

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I generally agree with this. However, rilla is on papaer an outstanding wolf, he just needs enthusiasm. I don't think he'd have signed up if he wasn't prepared to give it a proper go as wolf. I'm not willing to town him all game on this alone.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

baudib you're doing an excellent job of sapping my enthusiasm already.

rilla is capable of wolfing. He might not have proven it to you, but there were games that happened before you existed.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I've seen rilla win as wolf in my early days, I'm sure of it. There were also a ton of games before me where rilla was involved. He's vastly experienced. If you think you can just town him based on his enthusiasm, you're not showing him nearly the respect he deserves.

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Villager Ong likes to freely give town reads as he sees fit. Wolf Ong warns people: Watch out for the big bad Rilla wolf.

Here are some choice posts from Ong this game. First off after trolling a few posts (role neutral), he makes it clear he thinks it's me and Gator based off nothing.

This is a long long awkward setup to make a point that villager Ong seems to make in like 8 words or less

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok baudib so why aren't I a villager lean? I mean I put my vote on everyone, then start rescinding those who I feel hint town. That seems like a solid town strategy to me. Why has that gone over your head? Why is drew a villager lean for being drew, while jkds goes ignored for probing like he does when he's a villager?

drew seems to me like a really easy person to casually throw a town read at. It feels to me like baudib is just trying to do what he thinks a villager should do. His villager read on drew feels like nothing more than a half arsed attempt to make it look like he's doing something.

But hey it's baudib and I always think he's a wolf who I can read like a book.

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Double Day Unlimited Ong doesn't like it when people give other people thin villa reads apparently:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why would you lean villager with baudib on d1, who you yourself acknowledge is hard to figure out?

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Ong very self-conscious of his standing in the village:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Not so long ago gator you said I'm a villager. Now mojo jkds and baudib are above me. Have I said something to make you reconsider? Or did baudib say something really villagery that I missed? I can get the v reads on the other two.

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Actively pushing Gator for having reads. Dude, it's Gator.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

To say he's leaning villager imples that you have an actual read on him, rather than an attempt to sort. It's not like you put him in the village camp in a list of players, you went as far as saying he's nearly as strong as v lean as mojo. There must be a reason for that.

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Double Day Unlimited Ong doesn't like it when people give other people thin villa reads. This is in response to me saying Gator felt lighthearted and game solvey:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gator went from methodical to irritated and defensive in an instant.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

You don't think that gator getting irritated so early on is noteworthy?

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Verdicts:

Rascal - very likely village (~90%)
Ong - meh. I guess I'm the only one but I think he has pretty decent wolf equity (~30%)

JKDS 40%
Ong 30%
Gator 10-15%
Rascal 10%
Gabe 5-10%

Fact is, I cant read you baudib. Idk what it is, but nothing i've ever seen you do has ever seemed villagery. What I do know is that a) you are tenacious, regardless of role, b) you do all sorts of shenanigans to prove you're a villager, regardless of role, and c) youre experienced enough to know all sorts of different methods of "hunting" that would help you fake being a villa.

So like, I see you post a giant ass wall about ong. And had that come from, say, Rascal, I might stop and say "hey, thats a shitton of work; rascal must be really excited about this and really think hes got a wolf here". But I know you've seen this kind of tactic in the past. So that puts you in this weird spot where I dont think I can ever find you villagery, because I know you're always trying to manipulate people into thinking you're a villager.

Whats worse, is i've heard many players (rascal, for instance) say things like "hard work = villager". I know this to be a common theme from my own experiences as well. So I have no doubt that if you were a wolf, that you'd be able to convince them and win the game.

Thats my whole dilemma right now.

stop wasting your time. think about the rest of the players.

There's plenty more Ong stuff, I don't have the time to dig for it and I'm going to be dead soon. Don't try to save me.

Just refer to the posts from previous games later and decide if he's trying to solve or trying to obfuscate.

1. It's pretty clear that the wolf bussed. Unless it's rascal, which I don't think is likely, but you guys are probably gonna kill him because there's literally no other mechanical info to go on.
2. IDFK about Ong, the thing I'd say in contrasting his villager and wolf games is he likes to try to get with more audacious shit as a wolf. Oddly enough, he posts in a third-level self-aware manner as a villager, saying things he knows will draw attention but just doesn't give a shit about.

for example:
"Aroooo, I mean quack" - villager

"Hey I just shot Keith in broad daylight for no reason, I'm obviously a villager because why the fuck would I do that as a wolf?! Obviously I wouldn't so you must lock clear me." - wolf

One more post about the nightkill and I'll leave it at that:

Maybe I'm just thinking about this too first level, but it makes no sense to me why the wolf wouldn't want to get a villager who didn't vote for Luco at F3.

As it stands, it looks really likely that the F3 will come from the Luco wagon.

Who as a wolf would be thinking about this, and who would try to win in this way?

Heres what I see. These are the only posts talking about luco prior to his lynch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

poor luco, top of the list

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This is either standard FPS from ong where he does something 'no wolf would ever do, for the luls', or its just a legit comment about how the top of the player list is screwed. Dunno. Its one of the first posts though, and I feel like its just an ice breaker type of thing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Well, I had a pretty easy time reading Gabe as villa last game so we'll see. Luco is great at reading Gabe and Gator, and Gator can read Gabe.

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Not getting any info from this post due to luco's reveal

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Originally Posted by baudib

like actually I could see it but wolf Luco probably makes an effort to say something in his first post, look at last game.

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But this is the only defense of luco posted this game. Its made when hes only got 1 (2?) votes on him though, and its not even a serious wagon.

See

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

Votecount 1.2

2
Luco - (Ong, JKDS)

Gator - (Ong, JKDS)

baudib - (BID, Ong)

1
gabe - (JKDS)

MMM - (baudib)

Ong - (baudib)

lilrascal - (Ong)

Please point out any errors in the count.

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We got this...

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

rescind all
lynch mmm
lynch Luco

Let's see how this plays out. Hoopy posts a vote count, then a little over an hour from there MMM throws his vote to baudib (and personally his posts after that seem very weird). He could have voted for me, but honestly Baudib is a better villager than I am so the vote make sense to me. If MMM turns out to be a wolf then Luco is a wolf like 99% of the time here.

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Putting luco in the lead, while urging MMM. Doesnt really seem like mmm is getting lynched though, even though its 3-2. I actually liked this post a ton, and felt it was super indicative of gator being a villager. I can see it as him being a wolf and setting up a future mmm death (you know, it could even be a soft defense of luco with the hope that mmm beinga villa clears luco), but I dont see it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Because since the 2nd half of this turned out to be correct I believe the first part is as well.

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Not surprised still. I loved the reasoning. Maybe I didnt give mmm enough credit, but seems good to me.

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think your ong vote is definitely worse than random. a few posts before ong gave a reason to clear me, i thought he was doing a very good job explaining himself and seeming like a villager. i feel good about not going after him at all for now and i felt this way before i noticed him defending me

lynch rascal
lynch luco

i'm going to keep these on for saying they would be inactive

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Could be a wolfy hammer. But I doubt it.

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I mean, I can see reasons for why each of gabe/gator/ong could be a wolf. But everyone left is tricky, and my gut says theyre all villas.

God damn it, i like those 3 posts.

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Originally Posted by baudib

One more post about the nightkill and I'll leave it at that:

Maybe I'm just thinking about this too first level, but it makes no sense to me why the wolf wouldn't want to get a villager who didn't vote for Luco at F3.

As it stands, it looks really likely that the F3 will come from the Luco wagon.

Who as a wolf would be thinking about this, and who would try to win in this way?

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Its easier to say who wouldnt. I dont think rascal kills BID.

Ok, im fired up now.

rescind Baudib
Rescind rascal

I need to take another look at the mmm train.

That's so fucking weird you would say that. The BiD kill is really the only thing that makes me think Rascal could be a wolf. Here are BID's last 3 posts.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I'll do the same for the funzies...

Rascal 35%
Baudib 20%
MMM 15%
JKDS 11%
Gator 8%
gabe 7%
ong 4%

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

1) what does navel gaving mean?
2) my opinion on mmm hasn't changed - I'm confident he's a villager. Lilrascal idk, +EV lynch imo.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Thanks and I hope so too but today is not that day.

That stuff I said about gator and gabe was me just trying to think out loud. I was just trying to get into each of your heads as possible wolves and why you would do something at that time. It didn't make a lot of sense, hence the village lean.

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Looking at it Level 1 I think Rascal would totally kill BID for these posts.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

This format is confusing me, I only just saw that it's the second half of the day. I was just about to "shush" mojo for posting after the lynch!

Or maybe I'm pretending to be confused to play dumb. Gotta keep y'all on your toes now.

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Nother fps

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm no so sure about clearing people based on the idea he wouldn't be bussed. If I were his buddy, I'd be thinking that if he's not around to defend himself, I should get on the wagon in case he gets lynched. So people shouldn't consider me clear just because I voted for luco. Same, most certainly, has to be said for gator, gabe and jkds. All four of us on luco are more than capable of bussing him and then attempting to win it alone.

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discredit the wagon; so does gator, so does gabe.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

That is a very true statement and I was actually thinking yesterday that an optimal strategy for wolves with these numbers may be just that - attack each other day 1 and try to hold on from there.

Hoopy, do previous bolds go away after the first lynch or do they remain? In other words do I still have a vote on MMM?

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This seems so not wolfyyyyy

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

jkds -



Incorrect. Gator accused me of locking on, when I was asking him questions. Don't you think that's weird? Read through the exchange between us again, and compare it to my early harassing of baudib in recent games. gator knows I'm capable of a much more sustained assault than what he saw there. I got the feeling he was trying to nip it in the bud, and the post you suggest isn't free-flowing was indeed a natural villager response to gator.



You're wrong, but I think I see where you're coming from, and I think I find this reassuring, that you're genuinely trying to read me. There is conviction there, here to be precise...



That sums up how I interpret the exchange with me, and I'm left reading gator as wolf.

But then when I say "granted I'm making assumptions", I'm essentially making a disclaimer that can indeed be seen as a lack of conviction, which is more likely to come from wolf ong than villager ong, because as wolf I'm concerned about who gets cleared when I flip. The fact you've picked up on this is comforting.

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But this is a big response to my attack on ong, and it doesnt seem to click. NOw that I think about it, it does seem like its more of a thought out response...rather than what I expect to be an emotional response.

BAUDIB; talk to me about gabe. I love gator for villager still, but gabe looks weird too. He hammered luco for no reason, pushed mmm along, and nothing he says has matched what i think this game. I've been towning him cuz of meta and the luco wagon, but maybe im wrong here too

The real problem for me in this game was A. I didn't really give a shit and only inned at the last minute to make it a game B. we lynched the wolf basically randomly, with no interactions to speak of C. interactions have been slow, with nothing to really talk about.

I'm not gonna claim to be great at reading Gator.
I've usually been on different sides than Gabe; last game I was super comfortable with him being a villager (honestly, it was probably one of the best games I've ever had as far as reads) and have something of the same sort of feel here
I'm OK reading Rascal
JKDS -- never seen him wolf
Ong -- he just likes to be my personal nemesis.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

That's so fucking weird you would say that. The BiD kill is really the only thing that makes me think Rascal could be a wolf. Here are BID's last 3 posts.

Looking at it Level 1 I think Rascal would totally kill BID for these posts.

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I dont know why rascal would want the entire luco train alive, just because BID wanted him dead. Lots of people had votes on rascal, myself included.

BID was practically confirmed villa tho by almost everyone. The onyl person who tried to discredit that was gabe (iirc)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

BAUDIB; talk to me about gabe. I love gator for villager still, but gabe looks weird too. He hammered luco for no reason, pushed mmm along, and nothing he says has matched what i think this game. I've been towning him cuz of meta and the luco wagon, but maybe im wrong here too

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I'm not going to blame him or Gator, I'll take as much credit for the MMM lynch as anyone. But I never really had a grasp on why Gator wanted MMM lynched (I asked him about it yesterday). What Gabe said about MMM really seemed to click with me because I thought the same thing. Master manipulation, or we just totally mind melded as villagers.

Last game Gabe was super active (by his standards) so it was really easy for me to read him as villager. I don't get any sense of wolfy vibe from Gabe, but obviously he's pretty good.

Probably worth pointing out, him telling me and Ong to knock it off is somewhat reminiscent of my first full game here. I was terrible, and Wuf and I tunneled each other relentlessly. Gabe was a wolf playing "wise village elder" and saying, "hey you kids knock it off."

I guess the test will be whether he tries to reassess everyone or just plow through the PoE in short order and play it by ear at F3.

I have no idea what the vote count is, or how much time is left. Are you dead, or can we still shift this to ong?

Hoopys last post said 48 hours from yesterday, so we still got a full day.

I think I have 3 votes. I don't know who Gabe is actually voting for based on his last post (rescind all, vote the thing, win).

Ong has a lot of villagery posts IMO. But he seems super motivated this game, which I can't really reconcile with him being a villager.

Him wanting a basically solo win as a wolf would do it though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Ong has a lot of villagery posts IMO. But he seems super motivated this game, which I can't really reconcile with him being a villager.

Him wanting a basically solo win as a wolf would do it though.

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^^ I could probably say the same about JKDS too

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Ong has a lot of villagery posts IMO. .

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Im reading through again, and im not seeing it. They all seem preemptively defensive, like 'over-explainy'. His fight with you looks god awful too.

As far as motivation, he loves winning regardless of role.

JK, you might be right about the BiD kill, I probably need to stop thinking about it.

If you think Rascal is unlikely to kill BiD, then you should probably just hard clear him and be happy to take him to F3.

He's been AFK but his tone/posting-investigative style are pretty much like his villager game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Im reading through again, and im not seeing it. They all seem preemptively defensive, like 'over-explainy'. His fight with you looks god awful too.

As far as motivation, he loves winning regardless of role.

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I mean in a vacuum they look villagery and is the reason he's been called a villager by almost everyone in the game.

They start to look funny only when you think about how Ong actually posts as a villager.

I would go back and look at that Varchertine game but I've tried to block that out of my memory.

My biggest concern with him is that there isnt the adorable-grandma type of help he usually provides. No color coded vote counts, etc. But he is busy, and that shit takes work.

Meanwhile ong has 3 posts laughing about how awesome the bid kill was.

I skimmed a bit of it just now.

lynch Ong

I've clearly not been payng attention to his game recently. HIs posts are way more paranoia based here, and dont have any conviction. There isnt any focus to the attacks. Like, hes gone after me a few times with silly things but none of them had any teeth. Villa ong doesnt do that, he only attacks when he feels there is reason to attack. Hes a lot more reactionary too as a villa, often starting wars if he gets suspected.

I have 2 concerns regarding Ong

1. He's a villager and I somehow survive to F3 and he just snap votes me
2. He's a wolf and Gator and Gabe have already hard cleared him and will be suspicious of each other

I'm not too worried about either one, but those are the scenarios I see causing problems.

I dont have a shot at end game either. I've dont jack to clear myself this game. Best plan is probably still to off the two of us, but fuck it, I think ongs a wolf.

Votecount 2.1

2
Ong - (JKDS, baudib)

baudib - (Gator, Ong)

1
JKDS - (baudib)

lilrascal - (baudib)


About 26 hours left.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Rascal, also, after this lynch, ask Ong what made him decide that MMM was town but he didn't try to campaign for anyone else to rescind on him.

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You mean early in the day when I was telling people he was town?

Or when there was five minutes of the day left?

Wolf it up harder please.

I have no fucking idea what JKDS is playing at here but I'm pretty sure he's a villager.

How interesting that baudib is voting for JKDS and me, as well as rascal. baudib doesn't give a fuck who gets lynched so long as it's not him. I don't care if I get lynched so long as he's next.

I'm glad jkds doesn't think I'm a villager any more. That leaves only drew who can read me, and noone listens to him anyway.

jkds how can you say I have no conviction? I dunno if you noticed, but I think baudib is a wolf, and everyone else town. Even you suddenly turning on me isn't shifting that position. This is as much conviction as you can expect from me. Maybe d1 I was less confident, I dunno why that would alarm you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Ong has a lot of villagery posts IMO. But he seems super motivated this game, which I can't really reconcile with him being a villager.

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This is a really weird thing for baudib to say. I've been banging on all day how wolfy he is, and he's been saying my attack on him is wolfy, now he says my posts are villagery and it's my motivation that's wolfy. Even though this is exactly as motivated as I was last time me and baudib shat all over the thread.

baudib doesn't even know why he thinks I'm wolfy, he's just desperately trying to tap into other people's paranoia. He's succeeded with JKDS but I predict JKDS will wake up before end of day because JKDS knows how to tone read me. If JKDS persists with this, well I guess he could be a wolf who is hoping to get rid of me, leaving rascal and baudib. But I'm really feeling JKDS villager tone here.

Let's crunch numbers. How many mislynches does the wolf need?

Let's say I die next, then baudib and he fucking flips village. That leaves gabe, gator, rascal and jkds for f4, with two lynches to get it right.

Yeah we're good, gabe and gator have got this.

Whatever. Wolf can't win unless wolf is one of gator or gabe, which it's not. Lynch me for all I care.

I forgot the nom. Wolf noms one of gator or gabe.

Ok wolf needs three mislynches, so if JKDS is the wolf he has a chance if he can get rid of me.

Bravo JKDS, you just added yourself to my lynch pool too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Fact is, I cant read you baudib. Idk what it is, but nothing i've ever seen you do has ever seemed villagery. What I do know is that a) you are tenacious, regardless of role, b) you do all sorts of shenanigans to prove you're a villager, regardless of role, and c) youre experienced enough to know all sorts of different methods of "hunting" that would help you fake being a villa.

So like, I see you post a giant ass wall about ong. And had that come from, say, Rascal, I might stop and say "hey, thats a shitton of work; rascal must be really excited about this and really think hes got a wolf here". But I know you've seen this kind of tactic in the past. So that puts you in this weird spot where I dont think I can ever find you villagery, because I know you're always trying to manipulate people into thinking you're a villager.

Whats worse, is i've heard many players (rascal, for instance) say things like "hard work = villager". I know this to be a common theme from my own experiences as well. So I have no doubt that if you were a wolf, that you'd be able to convince them and win the game.

Thats my whole dilemma right now.

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This

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

I dont have a shot at end game either. I've dont jack to clear myself this game. Best plan is probably still to off the two of us, but fuck it, I think ongs a wolf.

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JKDS, This is FPS. We HAVE to lynch baudib with this lynch if for no other reason than to force Ong (or Gabe or myself) to try and focus on someone else. If Baudib really is a villager then there shouldn't be any snap decisions for the next one, but he is still miles away the best choice for now.

The fact that he doesn't fully embrace that bothers me. He says he does, but as soon as he gets anyone on the hook for anyone else he runs with it. He did the same thing yesterday with Rascal.

Baudib has to die today. It is the best move for the village.

I agree with Gator.

rescind Rascal

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

JKDS, This is FPS. We HAVE to lynch baudib with this lynch if for no other reason than to force Ong (or Gabe or myself) to try and focus on someone else. If Baudib really is a villager then there shouldn't be any snap decisions for the next one, but he is still miles away the best choice for now.

The fact that he doesn't fully embrace that bothers me. He says he does, but as soon as he gets anyone on the hook for anyone else he runs with it. He did the same thing yesterday with Rascal.

Baudib has to die today. It is the best move for the village.

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I don't see how you can possibly think this. I told Rascal to maj me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Rascal let's compare notes on Gator.

why do you think he's villa?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator is the best wolf among the FTR regs, FWIW, (or it's close between him and Gabe) and one of his hallmarks is that when he's a wolf, you'll consider him one of the best villagers in the game.

But I agree with you. I think I'm OK losing to Gator.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

FWIW I don't think Gator tries to derp-clear himself, although he appears to be smitten with the term and likes to use it a lot.

Like, he should know who he just killed last night.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

incidentally Rascal, Gator, whom we both have as villa, went from "wolf JKDS probably never does this" to voting him within like 5 posts or something.

it's just that type of game.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

yeah, I agree.

but why am I wolfy for flip-flopping

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

shrug.

whatever, I'm not important.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

yep it's like a turbo where you lynch the wolf in a runaway vote D1, the seer gets killed and you've got nothing.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

FWIW Gator and Gabe are probably too good as wolves to clear this light this early, but I really feel good about them.

Gabe in particular. I don't actually know who "led" the MMM lynch (he blamed me for some reason, no ragrets) but I felt I was mindmelding with Gabe when he pointed out all of MMM's weird posts. I think Gator said similar things.

I always find wordy, over-explained reads to be extremely wolfy, but if Gabe was faking those reactions it's pretty sick.

Gator claims reading Gabe as a wolf is easy, so maybe ask him for his opinion.

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You can't make me believe that these aren't subtle attempts to get Rascal to move from you to me.

Gator, you're just going to have to accept the fact that I think you're a villager and I don't think anyone should lynch you. Sorry.

Noone is going to lynch gator. Nor gabe. For the wolf to win, I need to get lynched.

It's baudib or jkds on that basis alone. Rascal has positioned himself to maybe go for gabe or gator, but it's a bold move for a wolf because he's not going to get any support.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Gator, you're just going to have to accept the fact that I think you're a villager and I don't think anyone should lynch you. Sorry.

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baudib is buddying up to Gator. Such a wolfish move. :)

Nah, Im electing to lynch wolves. Fuck maximizing endgame, the day we start doing that is the day we change the game name to were-wugy.

I think there is strong psychological bias going on though that is clouding our judgment. Think of someone you hate for a moment. No matter what that person does, it always seems like theyre incompetent, or they're gonna fuck up, right? This is because people tend to see the absolute worst in people in they dont like, while simultaneously seeing the best in people they do like. Idols, for example, can do no wrong.

Back to this game, baudib is super unlikeable. From calling everyone morons, to telling us to 'read the thread', going "gl gl gl", and constantly gloating about how awesome he is on some forum no one cares about, we hate him. That makes it so much easier to see him as the person thats tricking us, but im not sure hes it.

If we narrowed it down to ong v baudib, ong's done things that make far less sense from a villager than baudib has. Ong had to do less work to craft the level. And the bid kill makes so much more sense coming from Ong than from Baudib. BID is someone recognized both by himself and ong as someone that could read ong well. It makes a ton of sense for a wolf ong to kill BID while he was reading him as villa, while also leaving every player on the luco lynch alive for cover. It makes little sense for Baudib to kill him though, since he doesnt see BID as threatening and because it leaves eveyrone that lynched luco still standing. Its almost suicidal for baudib to do that, and I feel like such a kill makes a baudib lynch today almost guaranteed.

I'm actually not that awesome on some other forum, I just never get mislynched or even wagoned. I get forced to live to the end of every fucking game because wolves apparently aren't scared of me. It's the height of mediocrity.


were-wugy made me laugh tho

rescind JKDS


​

I feel like baudib-wolf kills someone on the luco wagon 100% of the time, but if the wolf lynched luco, that wolf kills someone NOT on the luco wagon 100% of the time.

Prior to last night, the top picks were rascal and baudib. Rascal wasnt on the wagon either. Its almost obvious that this day would go like its going due to this kill.

btw you guys can blame me if Rascal somehow slips through as the last wolf. But I don't see any wolfy posts from him at all.

If Rascal were fully engaged and active in this game I'd say there was no way he'd kill BiD either, because most of his experience comes from playing turbos and turbos (which are vanilla 9ers) are all about fundamental mechanical play. you basically always kill someone who voted the wolf.

btw it should be


"glgl"

not

"gl gl gl"

get it right clowns

sigh it's JKDS. What choice does he have?

fwiw I don't hate baudib. I like the guy. We just clash in ww because he's so fucking wolfy and I'm so fucking mouthy.

I think JKDS is the wolf because I think I'm obviously a villager and JKDS should know that.

I mean at first he wants to keep me around because I like him and think he's a villager. But when push comes to shove, he realises that one of me, gator or gabe has to be mislynched. The other two will be even more difficult than I will, because baudib's vote can be relied on, and maybe even gabe or gator could be swayed if this shitfest is pissing them off.

JKDS' hand is forced here, he can't back away from me even though he knows it's going to be a bitch to get more votes on me.

I've called you a wolf at various points this game. Trying to make it seem like its 'all of a sudden' is evidence that YOUR hand is forced.

It is all of a sudden. You said "I like ong now" and now suddenly you don't. I'm happy we've got this won now. I'm just pissed it wasn't baudib.