Anonymous Werewolf Game Thread

by the way

compare the way that ducksucks assessed the potential for me to be a wolf

then compare that with gaston just as the night started

ducksucks feels like a villager who is trying to figure stuff out, he's using the evidence to weight up the potential for me to be both wolf and villager

gaston just spewed at me like a man on a mission. he didn't seem to care about if i'm a villager, his motive is to show i am a wolf based on the gravy flip and the way i shifted my vote. he ignores evidence that suggests i'm a villager, and focusses on what is wolfy

there is a distinct difference between gaston and ducksuck's attacks on me

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Originally Posted by duck

way to feign annoyance

my first reaction was to laugh

laugh because buck was a potential wolf and he's done us a favour

us being village, ofc

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I am annoyed. Anything that reduces the number of villagers is bad, don't see how this is up for debate.

quad > agston > pelion

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Originally Posted by quadrospazz

I am annoyed. Anything that reduces the number of villagers is bad, don't see how this is up for debate.

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i'd be annoyed if i were a wolf

that was a potential mislynch

Looking at the village right now.

agua is basically cleared in my mind after the voting yesterday. Might be dangerous to let him get to endgame but we've other thing to do right now.

Of all the ducks I like ducksucks as a villager best, good deductive reasoning in his posts and a very direct defense of gravy which would be a very fancy play to make as a wolf. Despite duck wanting me dead I give him a village lean. DarkWing is an unknown so far.

moarcowbell stayed on gravy most of day 1, gravy was playing tricky though so it might be that one wolf didn't move for cover purposes. Gravy voted for Cig midday, Cig probably not a wolf but doesn't add much value.

Taint had the late switch from gravy to ShoRyuKen based on ducksucks posts, gravy was safe at that point though.

lynchpelion is playing carefully so far, not much either way.

Gaston has been pressing people and asking questions. Village imo.

Lynch Duck

Lemme recap for yall

1a) Gabe acted out of the ordinary, and was a wolf
1b) It stands to reason, that other wolves would act out of the ordinary
1c) Duck acts out of the ordinary (quack arooo)

2) Duck loved Gravy's lynch, but 2 hours later switched to Shoryuken right as it gained steam. He offers no reasoning other than "he thought shoryuken was wolfier", but this is inconsistent with the posts in question. It makes perfect sense as a wolf looking for any reason to get off of Gravy.

3) Duck KNEW THE IDENTITY of Shoryuken before his flip. Even though he claims to think both Gravy and Shoryuken were wolves.

4a) Duck freely posted who he thought was who (ie daven, baudib, etc). He did this without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4b) At night, Duck freely posted who the obv villagers were, without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4c) Makes sense if Duck is a wolf who isnt concerned about that.

5) This whole post

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Originally Posted by duck

good god

i'm a wolf because gravy outed me?

you see where i said "sigh"?

that's where i facepalm because gabe posted

something about the three sentences i posted

a direct reply to me, relating to the conversation i'm having with gravy regarding gaston

it was obvious to me that gravy = gabe

yes, i am wolfy because of the way i moved my vote off gravy right near deadline, i'm not gonna dodge that

i am not wolfy due to knowing who gravy was, and saying i am is stupid

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is just classic "caught for the wrong reasons" rage. Wolves dont like being found out for bullshit. They spend a lot of time crafting strategy and posts, and when bs outs them...it is infuriating. They feel cheated, like skill had nothing to do with it.

6) Posts like this

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Originally Posted by duck

ducksucks feels like a villager

gaston just spewed at me like a man on a mission.

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Originally Posted by duck

you emerge and try to muster up more anti-ciggie sentiment, a tactic gravy himself uses

you then go afk for a bit, and when you emerge you're pushing shoryuken, yet another easy wagon

not once do you put any pressure on gravy, instead you appear to be desperately scrambling for an alternative wagon to save gravy's ass

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Originally Posted by duck

you realise this isn't a defense, right? i would argue that passively attempting to get a wagon running on someone you hardly mention, at a time a wolf is beginning to get into trouble, is wolfy.

i don't recall getting a noob vibe off gravy. it's interesting you say this. maybe you know he was trying to look like a noob thanks to strat talk in the den.

you're doing the opposite of convincing me i'm wrong.

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Originally Posted by duck

i've just read pelion's post and gaston's reply

gaston's response seems lacking in something...

confidence i think

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All these "i feel" "I think" "it appears" "almost like", all of these phrases are wolf tells. Wolves dont have genuine feelings like the rest of us. So they have to constantly make shit up. We see that above as well. "You appear to be desperately scrambling..." "thanks to strat talk in the den"...etc. There are tons more of these posts.

Ask yourselves, do any of you actually think like this? When you see something suspicious, do you slow down and calmly proclaim "hey, you appear to be desperately scrambling..." No. Of course you dont. Because, unlike wolves faking it, villagers dont post this way. The thoughts duck wolf are faking occur in all of our heads, but the posts villagers make are the ones that follow those. Its never "i feel you're a wolf", thats so passive for someone that actually feels like they found a wolf. I personally get excited! LIke HOT DAMN I CAUGHT YOU MOTHERDUCKER. Being that yall are competitive poker players, you likely get excited too.

Ducks a wolf ladies and gentlemen.

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Originally Posted by duck

gaston just spewed at me like a man on a mission. he didn't seem to care about if i'm a villager, his motive is to show i am a wolf based on the gravy flip and the way i shifted my vote. he ignores evidence that suggests i'm a villager, and focusses on what is wolfy

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Pots and kettles. Gabe called me a confirmed villager. The odds I dont get looked up or shot after that are almost nill, and the odds he does it to a wolf are nill because of that. But you dont see any evidence that I'm a villager, because you need me dead. Because you know who my account is. And because you know that i know yours...

BAM. No one hunts like Gaston. NO ONE.

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Originally Posted by quadrospazz

moarcowbell stayed on gravy most of day 1, gravy was playing tricky though so it might be that one wolf didn't move for cover purposes. Gravy voted for Cig midday, Cig probably not a wolf but doesn't add much value.

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Moarcowbell stayed on gravy D1? Not really, he made some noise about gravy but ended up voting agua. He didn't switch to the gravytrain until quite late in the day.

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Originally Posted by Gaston

BAM. No one hunts like Gaston. NO ONE.

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Yeah, thank fuck

i can't wait to see how gaston goes about pretending to be shocked at me being a villager

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1a) Gabe acted out of the ordinary, and was a wolf
1b) It stands to reason, that other wolves would act out of the ordinary
1c) Duck acts out of the ordinary (quack arooo)

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define "ordinary"

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2) Duck loved Gravy's lynch, but 2 hours later switched to Shoryuken right as it gained steam. He offers no reasoning other than "he thought shoryuken was wolfier", but this is inconsistent with the posts in question. It makes perfect sense as a wolf looking for any reason to get off of Gravy.

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granted, my vote shift is bad

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3) Duck KNEW THE IDENTITY of Shoryuken before his flip. Even though he claims to think both Gravy and Shoryuken were wolves.

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knew? what gives you that impression? i expected a shoryuken village flip based on garvy's wolf flip and gravy's comments that shoryuken was a "perfect lynch" or whatever he said

i would further argue that if i "knew" shoryuken was going to flip villager, i wouldn't be so bold as to say it out loud

just one example of where you are looking for reasons for me to be a wolf, without balancing that out by looking for reasons i might be a villager

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4a) Duck freely posted who he thought was who (ie daven, baudib, etc). He did this without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4b) At night, Duck freely posted who the obv villagers were, without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4c) Makes sense if Duck is a wolf who isnt concerned about that.

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a) maybe i'm daven
b) i posted my reads in case i got nommed - but ofc that's a villager hint which you're not looking for
c) wolves tend to be concerned about stuff. once again ignoring villager tells - show where where i give the impression i'm concerned about anything this game

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5) This whole post

is just classic "caught for the wrong reasons" rage. Wolves dont like being found out for bullshit. They spend a lot of time crafting strategy and posts, and when bs outs them...it is infuriating. They feel cheated, like skill had nothing to do with it.

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wolves spend a lot of time crafting their posts? what utter bullshit. you're using rhetoric to build a bs case. wolves might be annoyed when people use crap logic to point the finger at them. here's news - so are villagers. you're pointing at a null tell like it's wolfy.

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All these "i feel" "I think" "it appears" "almost like", all of these phrases are wolf tells. Wolves dont have genuine feelings like the rest of us. So they have to constantly make shit up. We see that above as well. "You appear to be desperately scrambling..." "thanks to strat talk in the den"...etc. There are tons more of these posts.

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how do you know these are wolf tells? you don't. language tells like this depend a great deal on the person in question. since you cannot be 100% sure of my identity, then it stands to reason that you cannot be 100% sure if this language is a wolf tell, a villager tell, or a null tell

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Ducks a wolf ladies and gentlemen.

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incorrect conclusion based on slanted evidence

lynch gaston

i suggest a duck vs gaston 1 vs 1

i'm confident i beat that bitch, and if i don't he'll get shot after my flip

sounds good to me

Gaston I have a question. Posts #92 and #93:

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Originally Posted by moarcowbell

never reveal

other than getting a good read on everyone in the game, we villagers could use some moar cowbell.

gravyhog is probably a wolf, already pointing to quacks as potential wolves while trying to evade suspicion but ill hold off for now. are you a wolf gravyhog?

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Hopping on the Gravytrain eh, moarcowbell? Convince me you arent a wolf who just saw a bunch of gravy hate and wanted to hop on.

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What gravytrain, and what hate? Like literally nobody has commented on gravy at this point, except one surly remark from cig.

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Originally Posted by Taint

Gaston I have a question. Posts #92 and #93:




What gravytrain, and what hate? Like literally nobody has commented on gravy at this point, except one surly remark from cig.

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damn i wish i found this

i'd have rammed it up his ass, not presented it politely

I have believed since early in this game that Gaston was a wolf and am not changing that stance now.

As for me "dodging" the gravy bandwagon consider this: If I were a wolf would I have been so open about not liking a gravy lynch or would I have quietly tried to move the bandwagon in another direction?

I should have a bit of time tonight to review things and will post those thoughts later, however my immediate thoughts include a couple of things:

Duck seems more villager to me than wolf as he appears to be putting a ton of thought into the game;

Ducksucks also seems to be more villager than wolf based on content;

Cig butt seems to be floating around because a couple of people think he is a villager;

Darkwingduck still seems very much like a wolf to me;

If aqua doesn't start posting some info today we seriously need to consider getting rid of him. The longer we wait the harder it will become to get rid of a disinterested villager due to numbers.

I am convinced Gaston is a wolf now.

He makes the following post, which makes it seem like he is worried about binking a special. Btw, this was after Quad put in the first vote for shory (he had received two earlier votes, but they had been rescinded).

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Quad, With only four hours left, its probably a mistake to switch to someone who hasnt had any pressure. We got specials to worry about and what not.

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Then rails duck for his late switch to shorty with the following:

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Meanwhile, I dont know how Duck goes from loving the Gravy lynch...to "going with gut" and switching to Shoryuken within less than 2 hours. That shits weird. Hes willing to let Agua be lynched over gravy on the offchance shoryuken gets votes. Wolfy.

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At 10:58 Baud posts that the day ends in one hour and at this point shory had not shown up to defend himself.

Then at 11:47 Gaston posts:

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

unvote Gravy, lynch Shoryuken

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Followed by:

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Maybe Gravy is just bad :/

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This looks like a justification post for his last minute switch, but the switch goes completely against his reasoning earlier, especially when the deadline was approaching and shory wasn't around to defend himself.

Btw, earlier Gravy had moved his vote from Cig (who had one plus him at the time) to Shory (who had one at the time) after buck nekid told him he might be able to help himself not get lynched (he and aqua were tied at that time).

Gaston's vote put shory in a tie with Gravy and 15 minutes later baud extended the deadline.

He then makes the following post to defend his actions:

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Ya, I thought gravy was wolfier than shoruken. So i voted gravy. With 20min left, ducksucks makes a good argument against lynching gravy. Add how gravy hasnt claimed, it makes sense. I don't lynch ppl who are likely to be villagers.

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Gravy then makes these two posts:

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Originally Posted by gravyhog

dont lynch gaston. hes 99% village after a couple of his posts.

shoryuken is perfect day 1 lynch. he hasn't jumped around much, just tried to lay back and get through the day but with a slightly suspicious vibe. bag em up

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Followed by:

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Originally Posted by gravyhog

there are 100+ posts i dont like in this thread but i dont quote them all

gaston is villager because a wolf would not say say "x player is just bad." its too rare. im sure he actually believes it (if this wasnt day 1 and scenario was different i wouldnt be so sure)

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My guess is that they discussed Gaston's last minute switch in the wolves den and figured Gravy would continue taking heat so they figured this may help Gaston when Gravy is discovered to be a wolf.

I am pretty confident that we can lynch gaston today and the third wolf may have even been on the shory bandwagon.

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Originally Posted by quadrospazz

God dammit at this rate the mod is going to end up a mass murderer.

Lets try not to do anymore stupid things guys.

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lol, every time I post I'm worried that I'm logged in under my real account.

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Originally Posted by duck

i am not wolfy due to knowing who gravy was

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I'm buying this. Duck might be a wolf but not because he knew who gravy was. It's nothing personal with Gaston and ducksucks - they're making logical points. It's just that this anon version has been different and I don't think the wolfden is the only way for duck to know gravy's true identity.

screw duck vs gaston, let's do quadro and lynchpelion. I say lynch one and vig the other, there will be exactly one wolf between them.

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

lol, every time I post I'm worried that I'm logged in under my real account.

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...

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

every time I post I'm worried

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...

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

every time I post

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...

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

I post

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http://webtrax.hu/myfacewhen/faces/l...s/staredad.jpg

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Originally Posted by Taint

Gaston I have a question. Posts #92 and #93:

What gravytrain, and what hate? Like literally nobody has commented on gravy at this point, except one surly remark from cig.

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There was some love for gravy, and I saw it as an opportunity for wolves to join a wagon. No one was voting or doing anything, then gravy gets a vote and some hate, and then moarcowbell is sure gravy's a wolf. Early in the day, I had no knowledge of moarcowbell's role, so I aggressively challenged him for a reaction. I got one that seemed ok, so I let it pass.

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Originally Posted by duck

damn i wish i found this

i'd have rammed it up his ass, not presented it politely

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Which makes me wonder why you didnt find it. For someone convinced I'm a wolf, you sure didn't do a lot of digging to try and prove it.

@Pelion: You're confronted with two choices. A) Lynch someone who, by all logic, is almost for sure a villager. or B) Lynch an unknown thats wolfy, but could be a special.

The choice is pretty obvious, and thats what I did. Quad switched to shoryuken for seemingly no reason, and I have no idea who Quad's real account is. Regardless, he seemed unaware of the risk and his quick rescind after pointing that out proves it.

Now ask yourself why a wolf would ever claim another wolf was 100% cleared. Suppose one dies. What do the seer and vig do? What does the village do? This wolf strategy would be suicide.

I'm busy for the next 12 hours. If yall kill me, vig should shoot duck and seer should look up one of the people we dont know much about. Probably Darkwing or Pelion, since theyre the more active of the ppl no one is focusing on.

3 gaston (DarkWingDuck #434, Duck 463, pelion 467)
2 duck (ducksucks #437, gaston 456)

quadrospazz (rescinded, duck 447)

Taint,

Seeing as you have all of 3x more posts than me I can see why this is hilarious.

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

Taint,

Seeing as you have all of 3x more posts than me I can see why this is hilarious.

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

all of 3x more posts than me

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...

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

3x more posts

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Originally Posted by Gaston

The choice is pretty obvious, and thats what I did. Quad switched to shoryuken for seemingly no reason,

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I switched mainly because agua hadn't done anything even though he was about to get lynched. Shoryuken seemed like the obvious switch because he was similar.

I'm thinking both duck and Gaston are villagers.

Gaston is a wolf. Find the last one.

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Originally Posted by Taint

Moarcowbell stayed on gravy D1? Not really, he made some noise about gravy but ended up voting agua. He didn't switch to the gravytrain until quite late in the day.

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Ah thanks missed that, probably need to reread again since I'm mixing things up.

lynch quadrospazz

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Quad switched to shoryuken for seemingly no reason, and I have no idea who Quad's real account is. Regardless, he seemed unaware of the risk and his quick rescind after pointing that out proves it.

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You told him to switch back and he did. If one of you is the wolf in this scenario, it's you

Further analysis of who the most wolfy on the Agua wagon are:

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primy - agua (twice)
gaston - agua
buck nekid - agua
moarcowbell - agua
buck nekid - rescind agua
duck - gravy
taint - gravy
darkwingduck - gravy
lynchpelion - agua

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At 3v3, LPelion puts Agua ahead and says he doesn't like a Gravy lynch. Wolves can do this. Not all wolves will do it all of the time, but it has happened before. It's as simple in the den as "hey man you're getting in trouble, I'm gonna see where I can land to keep it from happening"

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quadrospazz - agua
buck nekid - agua
gaston - rescind agua lynch gravy

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Great time for risky, tricky wolves to do something like this. It made Agua go from 6v3 to 5v4. A wolf who wants to play it close to the rope will definitely do this.

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cigarette butt - gravy
quadrospazz - rescind agua
moarcowbell - rescind agua lynch gravy

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I just don't see how any of these three are wolves. If they are likely wolves, it means Gaston is even more likely wolf, since Gaston's move to Gravy was less on the line than these three votes. Cigarette Butt made it 5v5 with Agua winning the flip, Quadrospazz dropped off Agua, putting Gravy at 5v4, then Moarcowbell made it 6v3. In order for these guys to be wolves they have to either be majorly incompetent or Gabe had to pull a Gabe and try to get himself killed. I can't say I'm a fan of the idea that Gravy was being thrown under the bus. If both wolves were on Gravy, I think they thought they could get off, but more likely I think one was on Gravy and planned on getting off while another was on Agua.

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quadrospazz - lynch agua

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Gaston prodded him to not switch off Agua, so a few minutes later he went back. How is this a wolf?

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duck - rescind gravy

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If one or both wolves were on Gravy with an intention to get off when it's too hairy, this is one of the only options. This brought Gravy to 5v4

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(I tell people to get off gravy)
gaston - rescind gravy

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Gravy/Agua/Shoryuken at 4v4v4. Day was almost over and could have just played it too close to the edge

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(Baud says will leave open for a bit)
lynchpelion - rescind agua

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Gravy looks to not be in the noose and Shoryuken wagon became the new one. If LPelion is a wolf, he did his duty in trying to have Agua trend ahead of Gravy but now the Agua wagon was not going to gain any more steam.

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(Baud extends deadline)
darkwingduck - rescind gravy
taint - rescind gravy
buck nekid - rescind agua

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Darkwingduck and Taint posted after the original deadline. If they're wolves, they weren't planning on getting off Gravy or they miscalculated timing. Wolves can be early adopters of wolf wagons then forget about them. It has happened before. It's just not the most likely thing


So after LPelion and DwD bold Gaston, Gravy calls him 99% villager. This looks like Gravy, knowing he's in the clear, may be protecting Gaston, but it looks like that TO ME. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gabe wasn't considering how lockvillager he was at that point. I also have a hard time seeing Gabe say that about a wolf in an attempt to protect him. On the surface, it looks bad, but since when is Gabe on the surface?

As for Gaston, he looks really wolfy. All these wolfy things have been happening that involve him. But in a lot of other ways he doesn't look wolfy. I think what we're looking at here may be a situation where Gaston looks too wolfy to be a wolf since wolves don't put themselves in these kinds of weirdly hyper wolfy spots. I mean, if Gaston was a wolf, why in the fuck did he get off Gravy with just 20 minutes left? The only way that helps Gravy is if somebody else showed up and put in a vote for Agua (unlikely) or Shoryuken (more likely but still unlikely since nobody was on except Cig and he wasn't moving from Gravy). If Gravy and the other wolf planned on both doing it then it would have worked, but that DIDN'T happen. So I think what we have here is Gaston just being a villager trying to do the right thing. He fits all my criteria for a good lynch though: was on Agua, adopted Gravy in a non-major-threatening way, said some wolfy things. But if I'm going with gut, I'm saying this isn't a wolf


For the Agua wagon, this leaves LP to the Elion. He looks the worst. If Moarcowbell is a wolf, it means they said "fuck Gravy". If Quadrospazz is a wolf, it means they said "fuck Gravy and look weird doing it"


I'm still on Duck, but I'm not solid. Some of what applies to Gaston applies to him. If he's a wolf, it means he made obvious moves by hopping off Gravy at the first sign of trouble and bolding Shoryuken just after Gravy did. In my fantasy world, this is how wolves play, but in the real world, wolves try to not get caught in these things that look like obvious collusion to them

I'll put some more brain to it then put my bold where I want it

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Originally Posted by Gaston

Which makes me wonder why you didnt find it. For someone convinced I'm a wolf, you sure didn't do a lot of digging to try and prove it.

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man you are really clutching at straws here

it's pretty obvious why you're still attacking me - you're a cornered wolf desperately trying to avoid leaving further associative tells.

i'm utterly convinced it's gaston and quad

ducksucks do you actually think i'm a wolf

jfc

here's my defence - quack

not arooo

im not buying much of the wolves threw gabe under the bus argument though obv its possible.

my read on gaston is village especially after the four posts on this page while duck seems more wolfy. gonna follow my read and go with duck lynch.

lynch duck

I think my most likely scenario right now is that one wolf was on Agua and one was an adopter of Gravy who didn't move off and had the intention of riding the gravytrain to vilcredcity

Of those on Agua, LP to Elion is the only one that looks bad to me (for reasons of Agua wagon)

Of those on Gravy, Duck and Gaston are the only ones who jumped ship. I'm gonna have to say that they looked too bad in how they did it to knowingly do it as a wolf. There is rationale behind why Duck did it, but it just looks so sketchy retrospectively and he would probably be aware of that. Gaston's jump off was almost pointless. If he was a wolf he should have just stayed on.

The others are Taint, DwD, Cig, and MoarCB. They were all on for keeps. The former two very early, the latter two only if they decided throwing Gravy under the bus was the right move.

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Originally Posted by gravyhog

im not into a buck lynch. when cig picked him apart, i dont think the logic was sound but it seemed to put wolfthoughts in peoples head about him. everything else is just typical

im sticking with cig on principle but the agua lynch cant be bad

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This was said an hour before Cig moved to Gravy making it 5v5. Looks to me like Gravy did not have suicide in mind since he liked an Agua lynch. Cig bolding him like this is close to a fatality. This is bold as a wolf and means they quickly changed plans

An hour later Quadro puts Gravy in the lead by rescinding Agua. Very unlikely wolf

An hour later MoarCowBizzle puts Gravy in a big lead.

This leaves the early adopters, Taint and DwD. Early adoption and accidentally being on the final lynch isn't the most rare thing ever. It can happen because the early adopted wolf is never expected to be lynched on d1. Of these two, I don't know, I don't think either look terribly wolfy



Going back over the early votes and noticed I forgot another Gravy vote. Cig was the very first to bold Gravy, and not too long after he rescinded

Gravy said these about him

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Originally Posted by gravyhog

i want to lynch cig. its day 1 so its not that important... sure he might be a wolf. the negativity is just too lame. it seems like others are being harsher on people than they normally would on their main account

rescind and lynch cigarette butt

i have no idea who is playing but its way better for the longevity of FTR werewolf to not have people acting like Cig. hes probably a wolf the average % so lynching him is fine on day 1


anyone who believes the day 1 banter matters so much that they feel they have to forcefully get their opinions out by calling someone "mouth breathing retard" is not good for the village and i dont like it

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Originally Posted by gravyhog

we need to be civil. people will become lynch targets for the wrong reasons if the village isnt all cool

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Does Gabe really say this? Really? Does Gabe really lynch somebody because he's being a meanie? Especially when it's obviously an anonwolf schtick. Funny how Gabe said being mean will get you lynched for the wrong reason then bolds the player for just that reason.

I think this could be a wolf v wolf back and forth. But that necessarily means that when Cig made it 5v5 with Agua winning the tiebreaker and later refusing to get off, the plan was to kill Gravy. Did this really happen?


Maybe the last two are lynchpelion and Cigarette Butt

rescind duck lynch lynchpelion

If you'll notice, Cig isn't doing fucking shit

When he is doing shit, it's this worthless shit

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Originally Posted by Cigarette butt

Gaston is a wolf. Find the last one.

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Originally Posted by quadrospazz's reply to Taint

Ah thanks missed that, probably need to reread again since I'm mixing things up.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cigarette butt

lynch quadrospazz

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Rescind lynchpelion

If Cig is a wolf, which I'm quickly realizing he very well could be, it makes Moarcowbell specifically very likely wolf (and Quadro likely but not as much as Moar). The reason is because it means the wolves were trying to kill Gravy after Cig put his bold on him. Quadro and Moar came in after, but I think the way Quadro did it looks really villagery. Plus MoarCowButts was on the Agua wagon, and like I keep saying, it's very unlikely that the wolves didn't land on that at some point

So maybe it's Shitarette Butts and MoarCowDicks

^^ Forgot to add that it's a big deal that Gabe liked a Cig bold as much as he did. Gabe has had d1's where his main bold choices is another wolf

let's just remind ourselves of something

with 3 wolves vs a full seer, limited vig and angel and 9 vanillagers, wolves were up against it from the start

so wolves will not want to lose a buddy on d1 under any circumstance

it should be assumed that any wolf on gravy's wagon would really want to find a way of getting off

i realise this is self incrimination, but that's cool, because i'm convinced that by lynching/shooting/seering those who tried to avoid a gravy lynch when it mattered, ie myself gaston quad and pelion, we'll lock this game. if that late switch gets me killed, so be it. i'll even volunteer the vig bullet to avoid the seer looking at the same person the vig shoots.

as for ciggie, pointing the finger at him is nothing more than a crappy attempt at soulreading. gravy tries to divert his lynch onto ciggie. that alone is enough for me to consider ciggie a lock villager until it becomes apparent that the wolves must have been trying to kill each other on d1.

That's basically true. I'm also going too far with this line of thought just like before and need to pull back

lynch lynchpelion

Keeping it simple, he's the worst looking Agua voter

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duck

let's just remind ourselves of something

with 3 wolves vs a full seer, limited vig and angel and 9 vanillagers, wolves were up against it from the start

so wolves will not want to lose a buddy on d1 under any circumstance

it should be assumed that any wolf on gravy's wagon would really want to find a way of getting off

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Yeah, this makes sense. Maybe we should put more weight on the gravy wagon - who got off it and who didn't get on it in the first place.

lynch lynchpelion

Three ways of reacting to the gravytrain:

2 wolves hop on the train - unlikely imo
2 wolves defend and divert - slightly more likely, but
1 on the train, 1 defend and divert - this is where I'm headed.

The pool of people who didn't vote gravy is smaller than the pool of those who did - only ducksucks, quadro and pelion didn't vote gravy at all.

I really want ducksucks to be wolfin because it makes these two posts just brilliant:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ducksucks

If Gravy is a wolf, it means he has been leading in votes and opted to not even add his vote to the wagon that would get Agua killed instead of him. A wolf almost never does this. Only by accident or if it's something like the team is dysfunctional and is playing with fire in a way that gets them burned almost always

Gravy is the strongest villager candidate by far right now and lynching anybody else is much better. In the overwhelming majority of games, we could call Gravy lock-villager and never kill him and we would be wrong only a tiny percentage of the time

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by ducksucks

Seriously, if we don't lynch Gravy, we're freerolling with one player that we never have to worry about lynching but the wolves don't want to nom since he's not a special

That is, if I read how the wagons and behavior has gone down correctly. This isn't the first time this has happened in these games. We just have a hard time capitalizing on them when they do

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But naw, ducksucks is really dissecting the game right now and I'm pretty sure he's a villager. There should only be one wolf in pelion / quad so if we lynch the wolf then I don't think the vig should shoot the survivor, just fire one off into the crowd

vote count

3 gaston (DarkWingDuck 434, Duck 463, pelion 467)
2 duck (gaston 456, moarcowbell 486)
2 lynchpelion (ducksucks 492, Taint 494)
1 quadrospaz (Cigarette Butt 482)

rescinded votes
lynchpelion(ducksucks 487)
quadrospazz (duck 447)
duck (ducksucks 437)

approximately 14 hours to deadline

Its clear to me that one or both of me and Duck have to die. We cannot go to endgame together. But we both provide a large number of posts to the village (duck moreso), and are both likely to get special'd; in part because we're unlikely to be nommed.

I can stomach holding off on duck. To be clear, I'm confident hes a wolf. But I can stomach letting it slide until his posts convince more of you or he eventually gets special'd. Or I do, and my arguments can be trusted.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taint

Three ways of reacting to the gravytrain:

2 wolves hop on the train - unlikely imo
2 wolves defend and divert - slightly more likely, but
1 on the train, 1 defend and divert - this is where I'm headed.

The pool of people who didn't vote gravy is smaller than the pool of those who did - only ducksucks, quadro and pelion didn't vote gravy at all.

I really want ducksucks to be wolfin because it makes these two posts just brilliant:

[posts]

But naw, ducksucks is really dissecting the game right now and I'm pretty sure he's a villager. There should only be one wolf in pelion / quad so if we lynch the wolf then I don't think the vig should shoot the survivor, just fire one off into the crowd

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I disagree somewhat. It seems incredibly unlikely that two of [ducksucks, quadro, pelion] are wolves. So we're looking at A) two voting gravy at some point, or B) 1 voting at some point, 1 not.

Given how people left the gravytrain (myself, duck, darkwing), i dont find it unlikely that both wolves were on it at some point. I find it less likely than [1 on, 1 off], but still not unlikely.

Anyway, I cannot see ducksucks being a wolf ever. No wolf pushes so hard for gravy's wagon to die so close to deadline. Its crazy. Treat him like a confirmed villager until evidence that strongly suggests a level like this piles up.

edit: Above, I misremmbered darkwings post. I thought he rescinded gravy, but it was pelion. The below is probably right

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duck

lhose who tried to avoid a gravy lynch when it mattered, ie myself gaston quad and pelion,.

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Wait, no because that contradicts taint's vote count. Wtf

Ok so

Baudib post 304, 1 hour to deadline: Gravy train at some point = [duck, gaston, cig, darkwing taint, moar] No gravy train = [Ducksucks, pelion, quad]

So I was right before.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkWingDuck

Not sure, but I think Duck suxs missing my gaston vote.

Gaston and
Ducksucks/ Cowbell are scum

Maybe duck.

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This probably clears darkwing. He said this early day2, and its odd to claim ducksucks is scum without rational. I dont recall anyone else thinking this, so its a position that would be unpopular and may make him a target. While a wolf may be interested in knocking down ducksucks's villager cred, I think they'd do it with reasoning. Idk why darkwing thinks ducksucks is a wolf here, but its probably a villagery thought.

I just did a long analysis about Gravy, but it was super confusing and pointless.

Tldr: Gravy didnt defend himself. He probably discussed this with the den. If so, would wolves bother defending him?

Idk, but it may not be the people who jumped ship.

Im still confused at what im getting at. I like the 'one wolf wasnt on his wagon' idea best.

gaston tell us about pelion and quad

analyse them both and share your thoughts

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gaston

I can stomach holding off on duck. To be clear, I'm confident hes a wolf. But I can stomach letting it slide until his posts convince more of you or he eventually gets special'd. Or I do, and my arguments can be trusted.

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if anyone was having doubts about gaston, ask themself this

why is gaston still thinking i'm a wolf when i just asked for the vig to shoot me to avoid vig and seer cross action? if i'm a wolf, why don't i ask to be seered so if it happens i at least get to find out who the seer is in return for my death?

assuming i'm a wolf, i can't know if gaston, or anyone else on my case, is vig. and maybe vig thinks i'm a villager but now realises i'm not going to be seered thanks to my comment and thinks he has to deal with me.

gaston is not looking for reasons i'm a villager.

gaston is a wolf.

this is duck's 100th post

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

Yeah, this makes sense. Maybe we should put more weight on the gravy wagon - who got off it and who didn't get on it in the first place.

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Who do you think is wolfy right now?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cigarette butt

Gaston is a wolf. Find the last one.

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You really are a useless bag of shit this game aren't you. I think it's deliberate.

After we're done with pelion / quad we should focus on cowbell and cig.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duck

this is duck's 100th post

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Holy crap, duck. You're a beast!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by quadrospazz

Who do you think is wolfy right now?

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Gaston and duck have the most lynch votes but I don't want to take sides in that battle right now.

Actually, Gaston, duck and lynchpelion have the most votes.

Here are my thoughts after my Day 1 review:

Duck - 95% villager. He has been WAY too involved to be a wolf and has changed his position on people based on how his reads have changed. He should be the last person we lynch today

Gaston - 70% wolf. I didn't see anything that makes me change my mind on him, but also think there is a better option for today so I will rescind

Nekid - 50/50.
Could be a wolf because most of his analysis has been very surface level (such as tying wolfiness to post counts and cig's attitude). Went back and forth with Primy which may be the reason Primy died last night.
Could be a villager because of his in-game post saying Gravy should move his vote. This looks VERY villagery unless Quadro and he are the last two wolves. Which brings me to....

Quadro - 75% wolf. Lots of wolfiness to his posts including vague suspecting of aqua when his bandwagon was small then jumping on when it got rolling, posting that there was 4.5 hours left when it was actually closer to 10 (not paying attention), but the biggest thing is the "smooth move" on shory. Right before the Nekid post to gravy Quadro put in the first vote for shory. Nekid then suggests Gravy move his vote and he does, but not to agua. Instead he moves it to Shory. This seems to me to be staged so I think our best shot is to find a wolf is if we lynch quadro.

Analysis on the rest coming soon.

Here is the rest of the story

Update on Quadro - I was looking at my notes wrong and it was ducksucks who made the smooth move so rescind, and I would drop him to 65% wolf.


Ducksucks - 85% wolf - He was never on the gravy bandwagon (yeah I know I wasn't either), he put the first vote on shory when the bandwagon was going hard on gravy

Taint - 65% villager
Could be a villager because he was on the Gravy bandwagon early and stayed on it for a while
Cold be a wolf because he doesn't seem to have much deep analysis on who is who

Agua - 65% villager
Could be villager because all of his posts seem to be more disinterested villager and he didn't really put up a defense when the heat was on
Could be a wolf because people thinking he is villager will allow him to skate by and could also explain why Gravy didn't jump on his bandwagon

darkwing - 50/50
could be villager because he was the 3rd one on Gravy's bandwagon when there were better options
could be a wolf because he kept jumping on bandwagon's without any analysis (and could explain why he jumped on Gravy's) and also voted for the same player after he had already voted for that player (wolf not paying attention?)

cowbell - 65% villager
could be a villager because he was all over Gravy early and often on Day 1 and also put the 4th vote on Gravy which, at that time, put him in a tie with Aqua.
could be a wolf if all of that was a play between himself and Gravy

Cig But - 70% villager
could be a villager because his attacking style is very hard to pull off as a wolf and because he also jumped on the gravy bandwagon when it didn't make sense to do that as a wolf.
could be a wolf because he seems to spend more time disparaging others than providing his own analysis which is easier for a wolf (but goes against villager theory so meh)

forgot to lynch ducksucks

Btw, if Ducksucks is a wolf then Gaston should be next 100% of the time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aguapurificada

Gaston and duck have the most lynch votes but I don't want to take sides in that battle right now.

---

That's not much of an answer.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lynchpelion

Nekid - 50/50.
Could be a wolf because most of his analysis has been very surface level (such as tying wolfiness to post counts and cig's attitude). Went back and forth with Primy which may be the reason Primy died last night.
Could be a villager because of his in-game post saying Gravy should move his vote. This looks VERY villagery unless Quadro and he are the last two wolves. Which brings me to....

---

Buck was modkilled for posting when he shouldn't have. Surprised you missed this.

Was focused on day 1 and did forget.

Deadline is approaching a be I wanted to get my analysis out there in case I get shot tonight.

Hence the screwup on buck nekid and you. Sorry about that.

3 gaston (DarkWingDuck 434, Duck 463, pelion 467)
2 duck (gaston 456, moarcowbell 486)
2 lynchpelion (ducksucks 492, Taint 494)
1 quadrospaz (Cigarette Butt 482)
1 ducksucks (lynchpelion 514)

rescinded votes
lynchpelion(ducksucks 487)
quadrospazz (duck 447)
duck (ducksucks 437)
quadrospazz (lynchpelion 512)

approximately 3.5 hours to deadline.
Night will be 24 hours.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duck

i don't feel tha allowing the wagons to become a popularity contest is beneficial for the game

do you think ciggie is a wolf?

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by quadrospazz

Not really at this time, his posts are just annoying to read. Guess I'll rescind for now.

Same here, that avatar with the different posting style is a bit of a mind fuck.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lynchpelion

i am not feeling a gravyhog lynch, however Darkwing continues to just jump on the bandwagon of the moment without providing any reasoning so I am sticking with him as the day 1 lynch we should be targeting.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Buck Nekid

About a half day (IRL) left, so it's crunch time.
I'm not seeing an outright solid wolf yet and a soulread on d1 is redonkulous.
DUCK is by far the highest poster and therefore an easy target for lazy wolf hunters but seems to be a solid villager to me.
CIGBUTT is the next high poster and despite his offensive style seems to be solid wolf hunting.
DUKSUX, DARKWING, GASTON, TAINT, COWBELL, LYNCH are contributing well but haven't tipped their hand IMO.

These are single-digit posters that I'm hoping will step up play--
QUADRO: 9 posts but contributes to discussion
GRAVY: 8 posts contributing to discussion
SHORYUKAN: 6 posts with half/half value
PRIMY: 7 posts with near zero contribution to village
AQUAPURE: 3 posts with near zero contribution to village

Non-contributors are either wolves in waiting or a drag on the village.
If PRIMY & AQUA don't start supporting the village soon, then I'd suggest a bandwagon on one of these (lacking a solid wolf stink from someone else of course).

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by lynchpelion

I like this analysis and village cannot afford to let non posters slide, especially in a game where past history is not available.

rescind and lynch aqua

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by quadrospazz

I don't mind lynching aguapurificada today for lack of posts and no contribution.

lynch aguapurificada

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lynchpelion

Aqua's lack of defense is unsettling.

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by quadrospazz

Anyone think that ShoRyuKen is a better lynch today? Agua going awol while getting votes isn't typical wolf behavior.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by quadrospazz

rescind agua
lynch ShoRyuKen

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Quote:

---

Originally Posted by duck

why is gaston still thinking i'm a wolf when i just asked for the vig to shoot me to avoid vig and seer cross action? if i'm a wolf, why don't i ask to be seered so if it happens i at least get to find out who the seer is in return for my death?

assuming i'm a wolf, i can't know if gaston, or anyone else on my case, is vig. and maybe vig thinks i'm a villager but now realises i'm not going to be seered thanks to my comment and thinks he has to deal with me.

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You asked to be viged, deliberately so you can make this argument. You are likely a vig target regardless (I've asked for you to get shot, you wanted a 1v1, we both have votes, etc etc etc), so you are risking nothing. This is a free defense you thought up and adds to you being a wolf rather than retracts. Im so done with you.

I did it again. Im awful at multiquoting.

I linked those other posts because it seems unlikely Pelion or Quad is a wolf. Yeah, they were on Agua instead of Gravy. But expressed uncertainty in the wagon and offered reasons to the village that Agua's lynch wouldnt result in a wolf. If their goal is to save gravy, they'd keep their traps shut and not weaken the only other real option.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taint

I think agua is leading the votes right now, followed by cig butt and gravyhog? I'm sticking with gravyhog.

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This alone is probably enough to clear taint. He makes a few other very villagery posts throughout as well.

Moar Cowbell claimed vanilla villager super early. Its a poor villager play, but its a worse wolf play. Hes foreclosing the ability to ever fake claim, and he did so quickly to the first sign of pressure.

Im starting to get warm to the idea that Agua was also a wolf, and we had an amazing day 1. It'd explain why gravy didnt want to defend himself or switch to agua.

If i gave anyone too much villa cred, its probably darkwing. My reasoning at 3am for thinking that is pretty shitty looking back. Also, Duck and Darkwing's interaction is mostly nonexistent. I can totally see Gabe's "hate the ducks" schtick as being a legit wolf tactic if both other wolves were ducks too. If one of them died first, who'd suspect gravy?

Duck >Darkwing> agua > [Cig, Cowbell, Taint, pelion, Quad] > Ducksucks.

Im not liking either a pelion or quad lynch for reasons stated.

Also, its 3ish hours to deadline and I'm in the lead and got stuff to do. Im a nilla villa. Lets lynch duck.