BooG has 4, Fulsky has 5 by my count. I currently have Fulsky bolded.
Convince me.
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BooG has 4, Fulsky has 5 by my count. I currently have Fulsky bolded.
Convince me.
I really feel like the Fulsky BW is headed down the same path as the Kfaess one. Although I do agree we have stepping stones heading into Day 3, I also feel like we can get just as much if not more info from the results of a Boog lynch.
Nobody really seems positive on either of the two, but I really think as far as odds of hitting a wolf in addition to results oriented, later day info, a Boog lynch helps us out more than Fulsky. (correct me if you think I'm wrong obv)
I'm still 50/50 on Boog and about 25/75 on Fulsky (in favor of him being a villager)
rescind StillDeadMoney
lynch Boog
FWIW, you get more information out of lynching me. Just being honest here.
Well you have enough posts with me defending myself to last you a while so I'm not going to ramble on repeating stuff I've already said, I really don't know what I have said to convey in anyway that I might be a wolf other then apparently mumble the wrong name. I guess kill who ever you think would give you more info i really don't see how that would be me. and apparently If I'm a wolf I'm the worse wolf in Ww history.
Alright, it seems like some people are at least somewhat convinced fulsky is a villager. I'm not so sure, but I can't deny that lynching BooG won't give more info + potential for Santa makes it worth it.
Rescind Fulsky
Lynch DaBooGerManz
It looks like I'm going to die which I'm fine with because I know the lynch'll shed some light on things. I'm going to turn up a villager and when I do, Roid_Rage and Carroters should be carefully examined (as with SDM though he's a bit secondary on my list).
JKDS is off my list of suspects. I just wanted to say that before anyone uses the "...but a confirmed villager thought JKDS was a wolf." Again, I no longer think he's a wolf. Also, I wanted to shed light on this post while I still can:
The man was, at one point, CONVINCED I was a wolf. Now, he needs convincing to switch over to my bandwagon? I don't know...there's just something suspect about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Roid_Rage
Anywho, those are my dying words. GOGOGO VILLAGE!
It wasn't that I needed convincing to switch to your bandwagon and I'm pretty sure I've never once said I was CONVINCED anyone was a wolf so get off my ass just because you're going to die.
I mentioned your name before fulskys on Day 1 and Day 2 (i think) but fulsky is one of 4 people I have pegged as wolves, so don't try twisting words and getting me lynched. I like both of you for wolves, which is explained in that post. I think anyone with a brainstem can understand that.
You said it yourself that we get more info lynching you than we do lynching fulsky, and I agreed, hence me switching votes. I could have been selfish and kept fulksy bolded just to see if my own hunches worked out, but I think your death, be you a wolf or a villager, helps out the village much more so than fulsky's death would.
Die with some grace yo.
FMP
Oh shit, didn't mean to edit that, meant to just click quote.
The post originally said 'which explains that post' I just switched it to the bolded.
My bad guys. :(
Inb4 rabble rabble rabble
:lynch: :lynch: :lynch:
I agree with boog yet again, i do not think JKDS is a wolf, and i think that we need to look at carroters/roid whenever boog dies (2 of my wolf suspects from 2 pages ago). I also agree with his reasoning for wanting fulksy gone, him freaking out could easily happen as a wolf. Boog is never going to admit that "lynching him gives more info" as a wolf. And look at the other 2 games he was a wolf, his defenses are nothing like this....this is whack...
save the boogers imo
Rescind fulksy
Lynch Roid_Rage
What if I did that? Can we get an 8-minute bandwagon going please?
resind fulksy lynch roid rage
@philly
I agree
The thing is, now we're just looking at time restraints. If we can't get together a more reasonable BW in the next 20 minutes or so, one of the two (Boog or Fulsky) is going to get lynched.
I think we just have more "clay to work with" with the results of a Boog lynch.
If he is a villager, then my commends go to Boog for realizing him dying is more valuable than option B and not being a little bitch about it. My hat is off to you sir.
I'll be checking this thread regularly over the next few minutes, and if someone has a better suggestion, I'm all ears.
It's called a level, and yes, BooG is experienced enough to be fully capable of doing that.Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
Boog690 is chosen to be lynched in the eleventh hour. Despite his cries of racism, the village makes sure his neck goes OMGPOP. He was a regular villager.
It's NIGHT 3
ANGEL, SEER, AND SANTA CLAUSE PM ME
The Village of Grundle
StillDeadMoney
GatorJH
Icanhastreebet
Warpe
Carroters
jackvance
supahaole
wufwugy
JKDS
TLR
bigred
DanAronG
HoopyDude
fulksy
DropTheBanana
Donachello
XTR1000
philly and the fanatics
Galapogos
WillburForce
Roid_Rage
kingnat
The Departed
a500lbgorilla - killed on NIGHT 1
kfaess - Hanged on DAY 1
Keith_MM - Killed by the vigilante on NIGHT 2
BooG690 - Hanged on DAY 2
There are 6 Wolves and 16 Villagers
SANTA CLAWS
5 WOLVES
13 VILLAGERS
KRIS KRINGLE
GABRIEL
JOHN MCCLANE
The wolves tried to nom but just as they reached their target, a light shone so brightly it drove them back into the darkness. It appears their victim-to-be was shielded by Gabriel, the angel.
It's DAY 3
12 VOTES NEEDED TO LYNCH
The Village of Grundle
StillDeadMoney
GatorJH
Icanhastreebet
Warpe
Carroters
jackvance
supahaole
wufwugy
JKDS
TLR
bigred
DanAronG
HoopyDude
fulksy
DropTheBanana
Donachello
XTR1000
philly and the fanatics
Galapogos
WillburForce
Roid_Rage
kingnat
The Departed
a500lbgorilla - killed on NIGHT 1
kfaess - Hanged on DAY 1
Keith_MM - Killed by the vigilante on NIGHT 2
BooG690 - Hanged on DAY 2
There are 6 Wolves and 16 Villagers
SANTA CLAWS
5 WOLVES
13 VILLAGERS
KRIS KRINGLE
GABRIEL
JOHN MCCLANE
Win.
nice catch.
Ima go with the wolves are targetting vets. It makes sense with the sputtering of a few votes for vets during these days, as well as the angel getting a successful save (i can elaborate on this if needed).
JVP, gator, yaawn and warpe seem like bad choices today. Fulksy convinced me with his last few defense posts...but i didnt see them until the thread locked, so ima back off him for awhile as well.
Something about hoopydude seems weird to me. All his posts are him chimming in after the village has taken somewhat of a direction and usually says 'the wolves are probably sitting back' everytime he posts. He seems to be taking a distant yet controlling role in the village which is wolfy imo. I wanna see where this goes
lynch hoopydude
nice save angel :)
There's been so many bandwagon's started that have just died after like 3 votes because the village is leveling itself due to the wolves sitting back saying very little. Villagers are targeting villagersQuote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I'd say 4-5 wolves are being quiet with one (probably the recruit) being active. At this point we need to be targeting quiet people and inactives to force some discussion/get some wolves.
Good Targets
Gator
SDM
yAAwn
XTR
Galapagos
kingnat
Bigred
Lets lynch 1 and have the vig shoot 1-2.
Using my 7 sided coin, lynch Icanhaztreebet {Edit lolzzz_321 - plz use the forum names, bro}
Who is yaawn? Does he get like a million name changes?
I'm slightly more skeptical of fulksy given boog's confirmation post that wolves can spaz out like that. I asked, and he was the only one to answer
I'm interested with hoopy's defense, but not sure what it means. I was personally very successful at defending myself by making a case for others, and that's what he's doing after JKDS points the finger at him. Does seem to me like that defense is too early if he was a wolf
JKDS, please expand on what you said about the angel
I'm forever stuck on the Santy recruit. I feel that was something that could be very important, yet it's been forgotten. JKDS is confusing me because I think he would have hit harder on it if he was a villager since IIRC it was his idea, and it's a very good one. In fact, I would have chalked it up to rando or trickery if JKDS didn't say it's not a level. Also, everybody is being so suspiciously quiet about a potentially excellent way to find Santy.
So I keep going back to Dan, roid, and nat
I don't think I can rebold nat because he's almost retardedly doing nothing like a villager that only wants to play as a special, and Gator's logic was why I got on him in the first place.
Not sure what to say about roid
Also not sure what to say about Dan. I've been over his ass as a villager since the beginning, but I also did that with gabe and TLR in last game. I originally thought that him getting nine fast votes on the first day meant that the wolves were helping, but now I don't know what to think.
People say something about that Santy recruit thing. I'm baffled that nobody wanted to get on that
Let me ask this about the Santa recruiting on Night 2 thing.
Why would I be so active as Santa? I know my history in this game (obviously) and playing in this manner almost always gets me lynched within 5 days. I'm cool with that, but when I was a special, I usually lay quite a bit lower. Clearly, I could be leveling here, but tbh I don't think people give me enough credit for that.
Stop pointing the finger at me about the recruitment on Night 2. Look at how my bw got started on Day 1, if I was Santa I would literally have done none of those things. I would be playing along the lines of yaawn, warpe, gator atm. Staying quiet for the most part, but willing to throw out some half baked advice every once in a while when I felt I'd been quiet for too long.
Since the vast majority of people seem to be playing in that manner, I'd assume that Santa is among those, and likely knew that recruiting on Night 2 would cause some flare ups and confusion among the villagers. It's not completely retarded to base some things off of Day 1, but for the most part its a huge crap shoot and we should treat it as such. Down the road (Day 4,5, etc) we can start looking back for discrepancies, but atm we have to use what we're given. And I feel that yesterday provided TONS more information than the whole Day 1 lynching/Night 2 recruiting.
Why not look at icanhastreebet (this is yAAwn, wuf)? Lets take a look at Carroters. Lets take a look at the fuckers that are sitting in the back seat with nothing to say.
*pokes the beehive*
yaawn is Icanhastreebet, it's what he's called on IRC though I shouldn't use that here as it might confuse people.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
meh I don't know why they recruited on night 2 nor who it was. As far as Roid/Dan/kingnat go I can only see kingnat being Santa at this point, Roid looks like a villager based on his posts. Dan might be a recruited wolf if they wanted to level us.Quote:
People say something about that Santy recruit thing. I'm baffled that nobody wanted to get on that
Guys, please use the names on the forums!
Come on Trip, be nice!
It doesn't matter how I play I always get a tonne of heat lols
I can almost always get being lynching the regs that aren't doing muchQuote:
Originally Posted by Roid_Rage
Oh and Lynch roid
I never ever do much til closer to the end game, I just target people who I think are wolves or people who I think are obvious villagers to see who'll get on with me. Iunno, no matter how I play in the early game I'm always almost lynched on day 2-3 and end up either A) Dying as a villager or B) Having to out myself as a special.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I always post a lot in the beginning because I'm an active participant!Quote:
Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet
It's obvious from this string events that santa claws is gator. lynch him!
@wuf
re angel: If the wolves' target was someone low profile, then the likely only way to hit the angel is if they got super lucky (they found a suspicious post or something) and struck lightning. However, if the wolve's target was someone high profile (like warpe for instance)...then the wolves keep that 'struck lightning' probability...as well as adding the probability that the angel chose to save someone other than himself.
Since rilla is dead, there is a higher chance the wolves are attacking good vets
The above makes the combined probability pretty high that the wolves are targeting vets. Thus we as a village shouldnt.
re santa claws recruit theory: Dan's defense was good imo, Roid is more than capable of derailing his own bandwagon and would probably do it the same way regardless of his role. Meh, to hard to tell at this point i guess...but i think the theory is still extremely solid and we should keep this in mind if we get stuck in late game.
Whatever you say, Trip.Quote:
Originally Posted by lolzzz_321
damnQuote:
Originally Posted by XTR1000
Word to the wise: Believe it or not, the Angel's awesome play gave us some good info (don't ask me to explain, because I won't, not where the wolves can read it). Regardless, let's not rush to lynch anybody, we have time, and given the numbers we have to make every lynch count.
@JKDS, I absolutely agree when it gets down to the later stretches of the game, we need to use everything possible the last wolf(s) including the day 1/night 2 thing. But for the time being we have more info to go off of. (I think I get what Warpe's talking about, here.)
So anyways, lets dig back through the last couple of days and see what we can dig up shall we?
i need to agree with hoopy a bit here, what do you guys usually do with players who are almost completely inactive, is it better to wait since theirs no real evidence either way? it just seems like a pretty ez strategy for a wolf to take in early stages.
Am I completely off track in thinking we should look harder at the SDM situation?
He was actively posting until people started pointing fingers. He was tallying votes and overall seemed to be portraying a helpful villager. Once he started catching heat there were some defense posts (note: they were not only from himself) and he has basically shut down.
Given my last reasoning, plus his defense post where he admits to casting a hint of suspicion over himself, it just seems odd he would go from "I'm here to help" to "I'll help as long as the wolves feel like I'm suspicious enough to not eat" to not saying anything at all.
I kinda feel like i'm beating a dead horse here, but if anyone wants to chew the fat with me on that idea (whether you think there is something there or not), i kinda figured it was atleast worth another look.
SDM is definitely worth another look. I didn't pay much attention to it because I was trying to figure other things out
I stand by my theory that at least one wolf (and probably two) were being targeted on day 2. I also think we need to look pretty hard at everyone that switched to Boog at the end of the day and if there is someone who hadn't suspected him to that point then switched they too become suspects in my book.
For now my top suspects are SDM (still), Jackvance and XTR
We're toast. The wolves now know who the angel is (because I highly doubt the angel would protect anyone but themselves since the seer has not come out), the seer probably keeps missing with his scans, and the wolves are beginning to outnumber us.
SDM should be modkilled for being such a bitch all the time.
Okay if we get nothing better then an SDM lynch it isQuote:
Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Quiet, wolf.
I mean, it sucks they know who angel is but we're not toast. Maybe slightly charred bread...but not toast.Quote:
Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney
What, no lynch? I'm hurtQuote:
Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney
How can a BW against you be successful when you all of your buddy wolves come to your defense?Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
If the wolves know who the angel is, the seer can't come out without risking his own life. Either the seer will hang low and wait to find a bunch of wolves before revealing himself, or the wolves will find him first and it's as if the village never had a seer. It's an uphill battle, that's for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
What do you have to lose?Quote:
Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney
I mean, besides providing the village with the information failed bandwagons bring which fits your MO of purposefully helping the wolves in every game you play.
this isnt true at allQuote:
or the wolves will find him (the seer) first and it's as if the village never had a seer.
just looked over a few things and am wondering why we aren't targeting XTR. He has made minimal posts so far which is on par with how he plays when he is a wolf.
Let's see where this goes - lynch XTR
Didn't he do that last game as a villager?Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Hes posted i thnk 4 times in the last 6 pages, and also wanted warpe dead in the early game. No one seems to care about hoopy, so sure.
rescind hoopy, lynch xtr
Well, in absence of a better idea, an XTR lynch fits the bill perfectly for me, so let's see some defense
lynch xtr
Mostly I don't get the hoopy thing. XTR has played exactly like this as a wolf. I'll wait to hear from him to decide.
I was thinking pretty much the same thing about bigred.Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
The top three I am suspicious of right now are bigred, Carroters and SDM
Out of the three I think I prefer lynch Carroters
GUYS I WILL BE GOING TO SOUTH CAROLINA IN TWO HOURS ON A JET PLANE. a500lbgorilla WILL TAKE OVER MODDING. I'LL BE BACK SUNDAY.
LOVE,
lolzzzunderscorethreetwoone
Meh I wanted to wait a bit to see where this is going, but I´ll be off for some indoor bouldering in a minute and you´d waste a lynch on me.Quote:
Originally Posted by supahaole
It is correct that I have played exactly like this as a wolf, even as SC one or two years ago. It is also correct that I´ve played exactly like this when I was a reg villager. It is also true, that I´ve played exactly like this when I was the seer so you should be very careful when drawing conclusions from such analogies. Also, ye olde "he has played like this as a wolf before so let´s lynch him" is actually the pack going after villagers a decent % of the time, it´s a classic wolf bandwagon wrapped in some dubious reasoning, so keep an eye on everyone accusing me.
I don´t have much else to say as a defense, since my only "suspicious behaviour" is playing my abc game. I´m always bolding JV the first day, because that´s what I do. He´s a wolf like always and I don´t trust him (and he has a record of getting me lynched, either when I´m a wolf or when he is and I´m innocent). The fact that he didn´t push the first b/w on me indicates that he´s a villager just like me.
I´m also honest with you in that I couldn´t be bothered yet to reread the entire twelve million posts I missed while I was with my familly over the holidays. From what I´ve read I´m getting a rather fishy vibe from Hoopy and dr. rage. Wuf is playing well and right now my villager of the month. I´m not happy with how Gator is wiggling his way through this game, and since I know I´m a villager JKDS is suspicious as well. He has also introduced the village to his great "spare the regs"-campaign, which was a massive cock-up, given that the mentioned regs are very good on both teams, while noobs tend to make larger endgame mistakes as wolves.
So for now it´s lynch JKDS
I don't like an XTR lynch atm.
Would be more than happy with SDM, though.
Lynch SDM
Hah I've been a wolf once in like 13 games, I think I'm quite the statistical anomoly there. But yeah your post reinforces my thoughts you're a villager (this time!).. not sure who to go for now, I think some wolves are laying low, some are posting, but which ones, right.Quote:
Originally Posted by XTR1000
sorry for lack of posting. Xmas etc etc.
good work by the angel.
SDM - you sound like a wolf trying to get the seer to reveal himself. And also trying to scare the angel who maybe a newb.
"If the wolves know who the angel is, the seer can't come out without risking his own life. Either the seer will hang low and wait to find a bunch of wolves before revealing himself, or the wolves will find him first and it's as if the village never had a seer. It's an uphill battle, that's for sure."
Lynch SDM.
+1 that was patheticQuote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
This but thinking it about both bird and gator.Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR
I think roid and sdm ate both better options. Roid has just returned after a forced absence so would be keen to post lots a.d get involved as he needs his FTR fix, so don't let the high post count imply he's not a wolf. Also having just read all of the last 2 days roid just seems off to me.
So sdm, roid, gator and bird are all good lynches in my book.
* bird =bigred
bird = the word
I will switch my lynch to XTR if someone can come up with a better acronym for XTR than me
Well, I'm fairly convinced XTR isn't a wolf. I was a wolf with him a few games ago and he never made defense posts like that even with heat on him. Sure, he might be changing up his MO but I don't really get the wolf vibe from him.
I can, however, definitely get behind a SDM lynch as well as gator and philly. SDM because his posts seem to fit the wolf bill quite well. Being short and fairly uninformative but pointing fingers.
The gator villager I remember from games past was very involved and quite aggressive in his accusations and arguments to support them which I haven't seen yet this game.
Philly has sort of dropped off now that he is not catching heat and while this may just be a villager who is finally able to relax without a target on his back I would think he would be more active as a result.
As gator said (wolf or not) lynching hastily now is a terribad idea so I'll hold off on bolding until we see some more contribution especially from the quiet people.
Lynch XTR1000
I am now with Donachello on XTR. I looked at his posts from the last few games and do think he would have been (even slightly) more active if he were a wolf. As mentioned he could be changing his game up, but for now I will rescind XTR.
The vegetable seems like a villager so far. This is exactly how he played in Hoth being good/active with a tendency to level himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR
I'm kind of torn on XTR, Don makes a good point about XTR's defense posts being different from when he was a wolf.
This is a distortion. Players that are "obvious villagers" don't get bandwagoned and their posts are more credible; thus, they are of less value to the wolves than a player that looks suspicious and can be bandwagoned. Why would the wolves kill villagers that are "the usual suspects" when they can just let the village do it for them?Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Hence, by posting the way I do, I create more suspicion of myself and open myself up to be bandwagoned and commensurately decreasing the probability that I get eaten. As long as I don't make any really big mistakes (such as in the last game where I went along with the wolves in their suspicions), I can live to see the endgame and try to win it for the village. Or, as a wolf, see the endgame and try to win it for the wolves. Either way, this survival strategy is optimal when my objective is to maximize my influence on the game.
As for the accusation of "helping the wolves" as a result of my strategy... I outed myself as the angel in a game where I was not the angel, allowing the angel to live several more turns and letting the seer get off a few more scans, which helped win the game for the village. Then there is the game where I was lynched in the first or second day for being "annoying", blocked a wolf recruitment, and the game had to be restarted because the village also luckily killed the alpha early on iirc.
I don't know how this can be asserted without knowing who the angel is and who the wolves targetted. These sorts of statements are what make me suspicious of Warpe.Quote:
Believe it or not, the Angel's awesome play gave us some good info (don't ask me to explain, because I won't, not where the wolves can read it).
Because after I spoke and lynched enough to arouse suspicion, I had to back off because any more suspicion would get me lynched. I tallied the votes because I wanted the first day to end.Quote:
He was actively posting until people started pointing fingers. He was tallying votes and overall seemed to be portraying a helpful villager.
Christmas.Quote:
and he has basically shut down.
Quote:
Once he started catching heat there were some defense posts (note: they were not only from himself)
These two statements, both from DTB on the same post, don't make sense together. If someone sticks up for me, that makes me suspicious (if I am inferring the first quote correctly). Then, he actively asks for people to discuss it with him whether or not there is "something to it" - probably not realizing that he can use the first quote's justification of suspicion (due to other people defending me) in order to further push for a lynch. In other words, if anyone says I'm a wolf, that's lynch ammo. If anyone says I'm not a wolf, hey it's suspicious people are defending SDM, that's more lynch ammo. It's a classic catch 22.Quote:
but if anyone wants to chew the fat with me on that idea (whether you think there is something there or not)
I'm really beginning to think that the wolves are starting to make mistakes. I'll summarize my lynch votes here:Quote:
For now my top suspects are SDM (still)
Day 1: I bandwagon late for every lynch vote, the same thing I do every game. I end up lynching a villager.
Day 2: I lynch Warpe and stated my reasons for it, and did not bandwagon on the person ultimately lynched.
How does this makes me a "top" suspect?
What I find even more intriguing is that JKDS and Warpe are evading suspicion. JKDS is defending Warpe quite vigorously, which I will discuss over the next few quotes:
The problem with this line of logic is that Warpe is a good player, and the wolves want to kill off the good players to maximize their chances of winning. A level of this line of logic is using it to cast suspicion on Warpe. With this in mind, we move on to the next quote from JKDS.Quote:
ill happily lynch anyone who wants warpe dead on day 2. The seer almost always looks warpe up. The seer isnt dead. QED, we'll know warpe's role exactly later on in the game. Killing him is stupid, and people that want him lynched are very likely to be wolves.
Why?Quote:
JVP, gator, yaawn and warpe seem like bad choices today.
This is my pre-emptive defense post.
SDM sure has a lot of words for a villager. Hiding something imo?
So I called upon the powers of psychic cat!!!! (random.org)
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1271708941
On the first roll it said player 11...which is me. LOL physic cat with an emo humor. But then I said fo realz, and he picked 17. Turns out that's XTR if I can count! That's good enough for me. Rescind Gator, lynch xtr
Im laughing, because i think you really believe you're style of play increases your influence in the village, and makes you live longer. Both are false.
@the quoted: You need to be more specific with you're 'why' question. I've already made several long posts explaining why, so you're gonna need to tell me what part of my reasoning is confusing to you. Of course, this is all when you have time. No rush, i wouldnt want you to do something thats against your best interest :roll:
Also, if i have to explain AGAIN how killing people the seer always looks up is bad, then i just might rage quit
Proof of said lookup
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/6685/randomb.jpg
lynch psychic cat