Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

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08-26-2015, 10:28 AM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

But wolf JKDS would be cognizant that his fellow wolf was number one on the list. Honestly this adds more credence to me than when you posted the OP list and quickly followed it with "Poor Luco at the top". You are purposefully calling out that you know Luco was at the top while JKDS didn't seem to care.

It's hard to know if you've got a point or not. I mean I'm a villager, and JKDS did it different to me. From you're pov, yes I can totally see where you're coming from. But from mine, my comment was casual and funny in retropsect. If JKDS is the wolf, he'll have seen a villager make a comment already about luco being top of the list. I think it's null, but actually from your pov maybe it means something.
08-26-2015, 10:31 AM
OngBonga

The fact baudib is sitting there loving the idea that I'm not immeidtaly giving jkds more v points for gator's point when I already think jkds a villager, that's very amusing. baudib is really hoping I make myself lynchable by saying something stupid. Now why would he want that?
08-26-2015, 10:34 AM
OngBonga

Whoever killed drew, it was a great kill.
08-26-2015, 10:37 AM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's very fishy in fact. It's not like jkds to not give a shit. I've made a decision which one I prefer to see die. Most others seem to too. Why hasn't JKDS?

Oh yeah there was this right before night. I forgot about this. There was reason for me to not like JKDS.

I still think he needs to address this. I mean he seemed to not give a shit which of rascal or mojo died. I gave a shit, even though baudib was my preferred lynch. I can ignore this from a lot of the player list, but not JKDS.
08-26-2015, 10:49 AM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

The fact baudib is sitting there loving the idea that I'm not immeidtaly giving jkds more v points for gator's point when I already think jkds a villager, that's very amusing. baudib is really hoping I make myself lynchable by saying something stupid. Now why would he want that?

maybe because he isn't convinced you are a villager?
08-26-2015, 11:00 AM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

maybe because he isn't convinced you are a villager?

No, but he *thinks* I'm a villager. Why would a villager want one of his villager reads to become lynchable? Doesn't that make life more difficult? I kinda like have village reads, because it gives me a smaller hunting pool. I don't like it when villager reads of mine do something wolfy. He seems gloaty that you've found something that could put the focus on me, rather than concerned about how this changes his outlook of the game.

I'm trying to get into his villager head here, and failing. I conclude that's because he doesn't have his villager head on.
08-26-2015, 11:09 AM
OngBonga

gabe - probably villager
Gator - strong village lean
Ong - owning it
JKDS - probably villager
lilrascal - null
baudib - wolfiest

This is between rascal and baudib.
08-26-2015, 11:55 AM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Why does that bug you? His initial list had 4 then he quickly rescinded one of them leaving 3.

Once Luco flipped wolf I was wondering how awesome it would be to have soul read both he and mmm in that one post. It's normal thinking imho.

yes, once Luco flipped wolf. you weren't making a big song and dance about it "hey guys look I might have bolded the wolf!" beforehand.

that's the difference.
08-26-2015, 11:58 AM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

No, but he *thinks* I'm a villager. Why would a villager want one of his villager reads to become lynchable? Doesn't that make life more difficult? I kinda like have village reads, because it gives me a smaller hunting pool. I don't like it when villager reads of mine do something wolfy. He seems gloaty that you've found something that could put the focus on me, rather than concerned about how this changes his outlook of the game.

I'm trying to get into his villager head here, and failing. I conclude that's because he doesn't have his villager head on.

Ong you've put the focus on yourself by yourself. I was ready to say you should never be lynched but your tone and awkward sentence structure betray you.

Quote:

I'm trying to get into his villager head here, and failing. I conclude that's because he doesn't have his villager head on.

who the fuck talks like this?

rescind Rascal
lynch Ong
08-26-2015, 12:00 PM
baudib

.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

So anyway, we have Ongwolf properly tarped. If Ong tries to make a case against someone other than me today, I suggest we burn him with fire immediately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Oh yeah there was this right before night. I forgot about this. There was reason for me to not like JKDS.

I still think he needs to address this. I mean he seemed to not give a shit which of rascal or mojo died. I gave a shit, even though baudib was my preferred lynch. I can ignore this from a lot of the player list, but not JKDS.
08-26-2015, 12:01 PM
baudib

That is the wolfiest of soft pushes Ong.
08-26-2015, 12:07 PM
OngBonga

So I make a comment about JKDS being fishy before night, and then next day before I remember to go back to it, you say if I push at anyone else but you I'm wolfy. Whether villager or wolf, you would surely anticipate me pressing JKDS at some point today, only as villager you would understand that it's something I would do as either alignment. As wolf, you're desperately looking for reasons to "suspect" people.

You're giving me no reason to think I'm wrong.
08-26-2015, 12:07 PM
GatorJH

where the hell is everybody else? We aren't going to win this by letting Ong and Baudib make 99% of the posts.
08-26-2015, 12:09 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

So anyway, we have Ongwolf properly tarped. If Ong tries to make a case against someone other than me today, I suggest we burn him with fire immediately.

baudib knew full well I would come back to JKDS at some point today when he said this.
08-26-2015, 12:15 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

where the hell is everybody else? We aren't going to win this by letting Ong and Baudib make 99% of the posts.

Sure we will. He's the wolf, so we kill him next. If I'm wrong, well I pull my head out of my arse, but the problem of me and baudib dominating is solved.
08-26-2015, 12:40 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

gabe - probably villager
Gator - strong village lean
Ong - owning it
JKDS - probably villager
lilrascal - null
baudib - wolfiest

This is between rascal and baudib.

Allow me to elaborate on this.

gabe - a capable wolf and certainly capable of killing drew, an obvious but low profile villager, to keep the number of more "obvious" night kills, such as himself, alive. But gabe has felt genuinely villager and game solvey. His vote for luco was at the same time as rascal, for saying they would be inactive. His next post five minutes later includeds analytical votes for gator and jkds. A solid villager thought process, or expert wolfing. I'm heavily leaning the former. There's plenty of other good signs with gabe, and no bad signs other than paranoia.

gator - my paranoia has pretty much gone since he told me to shut the fuck up about baudib. It just suits him too much as a wolf to let it happen, especially given he was positioning himself to join the baudib wagon by agreeing with my intial points. This is the strongest I've read gator as villager, and strangely I'm not nervous about it.

jkds - I like the way he's been with me. jkds knows how to read me and knows the right questions to ask to get better reads on me. This is what it feels is going on, his thought process corresponds precisely to how I'd expect him as villager to handle me. But I don't like the fact he had votes on both the wagons who tied. Unfortunately it's too easy to just say he was busy, and he probably was. It just sucks.

rascal - I've seen a few hints of town, and I feel better about him than baudib, but he's easily my weakest town read. That's pure lack of experience with him.

baudib - your mom
08-26-2015, 12:52 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

where the hell is everybody else? We aren't going to win this by letting Ong and Baudib make 99% of the posts.

That reads list was mostly for you gator. I get that it's annoying when me and baudib do this, but it's really hard for me to look elsewhere when I'm reading everyone else as town. I mean I can deal with a rascal lynch, but it doesn't solve the ong-baudib problem unless rascal is actually the wolf. If we lynch rascal and he's villager, then baudib has to go. Or I do, which is stupid because surely baudib is a million times wolfier than I am.
08-26-2015, 01:03 PM
GatorJH

Well crap. I am back to square 1 because I totally missed that this was his only post of day 1. It is totally feasible that with Luco not being able to participate that he apologized to his fellow wolf and they devised the "lynch me day 1 and gain major villager cred" strategy.

When I look at it this way Luco's name on JKDS' list doesn't make that much sense. I can see him putting myself, Gabe and Baudib there, but why Luco? And if he knew Luco wasn't going to be around to defend himself it makes it easy to find reasons to unbold the others and not look suspicious. JKDS is certainly good enough of a wolf to pull this off.

It also potentially validates him not posting so villagers wouldn't have anything else to go on (even though he could have left some fake bread crumbs).

I guess I need to look deeper at JKDS' posts.
08-26-2015, 01:08 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

rescind all (cuz easier to read)

lynch
Luco
gabe
Gator
baudib

Special note: I took MMM off the list because I dont think wolf mmm goes absent as often as villager mmm does.

JKDS, how did you come up with these 4 names to start with?
08-26-2015, 01:21 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think gator's posts at that time were typical methodical gator, designed to be pro-town and easy to replicate. gator defines null like no other. I think the key to reading gator is to try to get into his villager head, because trying to get into his wolf head is futile.

He says I'm a villager. He then says baudib and mojo are villagers. I ask why he thinks baudib villager, and he suggests I'm locking on while the tone of his post suggests I'm suspicious. So despite him initially thinking I'm villager, and me doing my usual thing, he then casts doubt at me when I refuse to stop pressing him. His change of tune regarding me is a reaction to me pressing him, when he should expect me to do exactly that regardless of my alignment. gator isn't thinking "ongies gonna ong", he's thinking "shut up ong".

Granted, I'm having to make some assumptions here about how gator thinks when he's a villager, but I honestly think that will be a more fruitful exercise than making assumptions about how he thinks when he's a wolf.

Huge villager points for Ong as this is REALLY good analysis.
08-26-2015, 01:27 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

i think your ong vote is definitely worse than random. a few posts before ong gave a reason to clear me, i thought he was doing a very good job explaining himself and seeming like a villager. i feel good about not going after him at all for now and i felt this way before i noticed him defending me

lynch rascal
lynch luco

i'm going to keep these on for saying they would be inactive

This is where Gabe votes for Luco. If they had discussed him bussing Luco I would expect Luco to be first on the list. That is not 100% though because this did give Luco 3 votes and since he was also first to two it would take a massive push for him to not get lynched. I still think it is more villager than wolf though.
08-26-2015, 01:31 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

Oh, and

rescind gabe

I am not sure wolf JKDS would bother rescinding a worthless vote this late in the day.
08-26-2015, 01:37 PM
gabe

ong and baudib, i stopped reading posts where you guys talk about each other. its crazy how you 2 cant help but go after eachother. madness. every game. and you guys even know that you do it, but neither of you try to buck the trend

i dont have any great bit of evidence for either of the suspects but i wont be voting for anyone else...
lynch rascal
lynch jkds
08-26-2015, 01:38 PM
GatorJH

I am not sure what to make of this post......

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

9 players, two lynches today, one probable night kill. That's six tomorrow, with two more lynches, and another nom, taking us to final three on d3, assuming no kills are blocked, or crazy vig etc.

We don't have the luxury of a standard d1 lynch to ease ourselves in, we're right in the thick of it already.

I'll say this out loud too... if I were vig, I probably wouldn't be shooting until a kill is blocked.

.....as it comes on the same day as this one, which implies Ong had looked at the game makeup and should have known that there are no vigs or seers this game?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I didn't actually notice that hoopy had clearly stated two wolves, I was just defaulting to two wolves due to game size.

I mean it's unlikely jkds would bother to play dumb about wolf team size when it's already out there.

rescind jkds

Was this an attempt at a derp clear after we had discussed the JKDS derpish comment?
08-26-2015, 01:39 PM
OngBonga

It's baudib's fault for being a wolf.
08-26-2015, 01:43 PM
OngBonga

gator I still don't actually know where it says there's no specials, I kinda just assumed so because there's only two role pm's that hoopy posted, someone said it was a vanilla game, and I assume so on balance too, but certainly at the time I was considering the possibility there were specials, and I didn't want to hint otherwise because then I'm obviously not a special.
08-26-2015, 01:44 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

I like ong now.

Lynch Rascal
Lynch Gabe

Rascal hasnt cleared himself, and gabes way too eager to lynch people that lynched a wolf and not eager enough in clearing people based on it.

I don't like this post from JKDS. He does the same thing Gabe did in that he gives himself credit for being on the Luco bandwagon, but then votes for someone else who was on the wagon. This is another area where I think JKDS is more wolfy than Gabe even though they did the same thing.
08-26-2015, 01:45 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

gator I still don't actually know where it says there's no specials, I kinda just assumed so because there's only two role pm's that hoopy posted, someone said it was a vanilla game, and I assume so on balance too, but certainly at the time I was considering the possibility there were specials, and I didn't want to hint otherwise because then I'm obviously not a special.

I can live with this. Thanks.
08-26-2015, 01:57 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

let's say we lynch me and then Gator and Ong get nommed

that leaves BID, MMM, JKDS, Rascal and Gabe.

I suggest you lynch Gabe at F5 because if he's a villager, paranoia will get him lynched at F3.

JKDS will probably own you guys if he's the wolf.

MMM probably loses if he's a wolf.

This is probably the most honest derp clear as I think the wolves would have clarified that they only get one kill per night.
08-26-2015, 02:09 PM
baudib

Gator, in the interest of due diligence can you explain why you voted for Luco, and how you connected him to MMM?

I didn't vote for Luco because I thought he would make a better showing than 1 slank cover post as a wolf.

Also I thought MMM was legitimately wolfy and making weird convoluted posts.
08-26-2015, 02:10 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

Sounds like a ton of BS to me.

Know why?

Cuz GABE was also in my list of three. Gabe who hadnt even posted yet. Luco at least posted once.

So you see my list, and immediately think "NO WAY, NO CREDIT FOR LUCO"....but you dont say the same thing about gabe, you dont even think about gabe, and the reasoning applies even better to gabe.

You had luco on the brain baudib. Hes your wolf bro

If your list was made up of inactives why were Baudib and I on it?
08-26-2015, 02:16 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Guys I would never say "hehe" as a wolf. Maybe I'll get a chance next game though...

This is pure gold.
08-26-2015, 02:16 PM
baudib

MEh, this is going to be Rascal so often ... I'm just gonna wait till he posts.
08-26-2015, 02:20 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

Gator, in the interest of due diligence can you explain why you voted for Luco, and how you connected him to MMM?

I didn't vote for Luco because I thought he would make a better showing than 1 slank cover post as a wolf.

Also I thought MMM was legitimately wolfy and making weird convoluted posts.

When I read MMM's post where he voted for (I think you) while you, Luco and I were all tied it just looked VERY wolfish to me so I voted for both of them at the same time. When Luco flipped wolf I got blinded to my thought process and stuck with mmm the next day. I actually wanted mmm lynched day 1 and not Luco because of that comment.
08-26-2015, 02:22 PM
baudib

fair enough. i'm pretty sure you're never a wolf here.
08-26-2015, 02:29 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Both gabe and baudib have stated that I am not a solid villager in their eyes. If I get nommed, which I predict will happen, look at them.

This is gold for wolf JKDS to point to in future games, but IIRC Drew spent as much time pointing a finger at JKDS as he did these two.
08-26-2015, 02:37 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's very fishy in fact. It's not like jkds to not give a shit. I've made a decision which one I prefer to see die. Most others seem to too. Why hasn't JKDS?

EXACTLY!!!
08-26-2015, 02:38 PM
GatorJH

I meant to MQ the last quote with this one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

jkds voting for both at this stage is kinda fishy.
08-26-2015, 02:44 PM
OngBonga

I've just glanced through rascal's posts and I see nothing that alarms me. Village lean, but not strong.

I can only really see this being bauidb, both through wolfiness and poe.
08-26-2015, 02:45 PM
GatorJH

lynch jkds

Ong is never a wolf.
Gabe is 75% villager imo due to style and tone. He just seems villager to me.
Rascal genuinely seems like he is busy and doesn't look as wolfish as I thought so I put him at 60%.
BID doesn't stand out one way or the other either so I will also put him at 50/50.
Baudib says some good and some bad but if JKDS isn't the wolf I think he would be so let's say 40%

Who wants to join me?
08-26-2015, 02:46 PM
OngBonga

Not really.
08-26-2015, 02:46 PM
OngBonga

I mean all I got on him is that double vote to close out the day, but that's easy for a villager to do too.
08-26-2015, 02:46 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I've just glanced through rascal's posts and I see nothing that alarms me. Village lean, but not strong.

I can only really see this being bauidb, both through wolfiness and poe.

Take a look at JKDS as if he were a wolf and see if anything he says changes your mind. It didn't with me.
08-26-2015, 02:47 PM
JKDS

Morning

Lets talk night kills. Imo, it was between Gabe, ong, and BID. Each had strong reasons to be a villager, and each was near cleared by the entire village. So why BID? 1) Theres the "oh noes, gabe is still alive...must be a wolf...." line. 2) BID is on the right track. 3) Gabe/ong are on the wrong track, or (and this is most likely imo) 4) its the "I would never kill BID, therefore im a villager" line.

Theres also second level stuff to make it look like one of those reasons. Thats way too fps tho.

I think BID was killed so the wolf could say he'd never make the kill. Which means its baudib, and I got tricked off of my read for like the billionth time this year.

Even if im wrong, its never gabe/ong, and its gator only 1% of the time. So long as you three trust each other then we never lose.

Lynch Baudib
Lynch Rascal

@Ong: I voted that way because the order of the lynches is largely irrelevant. Its one of MMM, Rascal, or Baudib; and we have more than enough lynches to get there.

@Gator: The Luco, Baudib, Gator, Gabe list wasnt made by choosing those 4. It was made by eliminating the other four.
08-26-2015, 02:47 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

BID doesn't stand out one way or the other either so I will also put him at 50/50.

haha
08-26-2015, 02:48 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Take a look at JKDS as if he were a wolf and see if anything he says changes your mind. It didn't with me.

I will later, just going out.
08-26-2015, 02:49 PM
OngBonga

That post from JKDS is wolfy. Why doesn't he think baudib is capable of the drew kill?

sigh
08-26-2015, 02:50 PM
JKDS

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

If your list was made up of inactives why were Baudib and I on it?

It wasnt made up of inactives.
08-26-2015, 02:51 PM
JKDS

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

That post from JKDS is wolfy. Why doesn't he think baudib is capable of the drew kill?

sigh

I said the exact opposite.
08-26-2015, 02:55 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

Even if im wrong, its never gabe/ong, and its gator only 1% of the time. So long as you three trust each other then we never lose.

I did some quick math and this is true. Assume we lynch baud and rascal today. That leaves Ong,Gabe, Gator, JKDS and Drew. One of Gator,Ong, Gabe gets lynched. Let's say Gator. That leaves Ong, Gabe, JKDS and Drew. As long as the wolf is one of JKDS and Drew the game is over.

Wolf JKDS would never say this unless he was HIGHLY confident he could swing toward one of us three the second half of the last day.

rescind JKDS
lynch baudib
08-26-2015, 03:03 PM
gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

Morning

Lets talk night kills. Imo, it was between Gabe, ong, and BID. Each had strong reasons to be a villager, and each was near cleared by the entire village. So why BID? 1) Theres the "oh noes, gabe is still alive...must be a wolf...." line. 2) BID is on the right track. 3) Gabe/ong are on the wrong track, or (and this is most likely imo) 4) its the "I would never kill BID, therefore im a villager" line.

Theres also second level stuff to make it look like one of those reasons. Thats way too fps tho.

I think BID was killed so the wolf could say he'd never make the kill. Which means its baudib, and I got tricked off of my read for like the billionth time this year.

Even if im wrong, its never gabe/ong, and its gator only 1% of the time. So long as you three trust each other then we never lose.

Lynch Baudib
Lynch Rascal

@Ong: I voted that way because the order of the lynches is largely irrelevant. Its one of MMM, Rascal, or Baudib; and we have more than enough lynches to get there.

@Gator: The Luco, Baudib, Gator, Gabe list wasnt made by choosing those 4. It was made by eliminating the other four.

:highfive:
08-26-2015, 03:04 PM
JKDS

I was like

"Wtf, Gator still thinks drew is alive? BS he just quoted a post talking about his death"

Then I was like

"Oh, he just mixed up drew and baudib's names when making that list. Ok then".
08-26-2015, 03:06 PM
baudib

I think JKDS is a villager, I'm not voting him.
08-26-2015, 03:07 PM
gabe

i trust gator and ong so yea

rescind whatever
bold the thing
win
08-26-2015, 03:12 PM
baudib

I mean I kinda really wanted JKDS to be the wolf because that thing about Luco really stuck out to me, but he just really feels like a villager.

The closest thing I've seen to him wolfing is when he was Loki in the game I modded, and even as a wolf-hunting neutral he had wolfy tone a lot. I really just think it's a villager.

I mean I'm pretty much insulted that anyone would think I'd be stupid enough to not kill the best villagers but whatever. It'll take you 5 mins to check the wolf chat from the game I was a wolf with Keith and Gator to give you insight into how I choose kills.

That leaves Ong with making by far, like a majority, of the wolfy posts in this game. There's literally nothing in any of the posts he makes about me that make any sense, and villager Ong usually makes some sense some of the time.

He went from saying he was sure I was going to nom him (I probably would, tbh) to saying that I had to be the wolf because I kept him alive.

I mean it's probably just Rascal, but if the game doesn't end today then grill Ong thoroughly.
08-26-2015, 03:13 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

I was like

"Wtf, Gator still thinks drew is alive? BS he just quoted a post talking about his death"

Then I was like

"Oh, he just mixed up drew and baudib's names when making that list. Ok then".

Actually, for that brief moment I did forget about the BID nom. For some reason I had it in my head that there were 7 of us left.
08-26-2015, 03:38 PM
gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

I mean I'm pretty much insulted that anyone would think I'd be stupid enough to not kill the best villagers but whatever.

yea but its probably a mistake to 100% always kill the best in spots like these. sometimes you gotta leave the best villagers alive, because they will surmise that you couldnt have the been the wolf (because like you said, you think its stupid, the best players will deduce you think its stupid, etc), then they can convince the rest of the village that its impossible for you to be a wolf!!

i love werewolf
08-26-2015, 03:59 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

yea but its probably a mistake to 100% always kill the best in spots like these. sometimes you gotta leave the best villagers alive, because they will surmise that you couldnt have the been the wolf (because like you said, you think its stupid, the best players will deduce you think its stupid, etc), then they can convince the rest of the village that its impossible for you to be a wolf!!

i love werewolf

one day we'll get to be wolves together and we can talk about this in depth but the nightkill is really the only part of the game that wolves control. you can't really control the lynches, you can't control what villagers will think about the nightkill. The time Ong nommed Luco in the ghost angel game is one of the rare times I've seen a FPS nom work out for the wolves.

there's just clear value in choosing to kill the best player, and no offense to Drew, who is a pretty decent villager when he's active and focused on the game, but even when he's ~ lock clear he's not going to be a good kill in this lineup.

This also, I think, points to Rascal, because JKDS pretty much knows this, I don't think Rascal realizes how tough it would be to get through an endgame with Gator and Gabe still alive.
08-26-2015, 04:04 PM
baudib

I wish for an event

I wish for ITAs

I wish for a true peek of a player of my choice

I wish for a day vig

I wish for apple pie
08-26-2015, 04:46 PM
baudib

I'm looking through Rascal's posts and there's not much to see really. This is pretty weird as he questions Gator on MMM, does like one short MQ of investigation where he calls MMM's posts odd, and then later in the day apparently doesn't remember why he was voting MMM.

post 192

Quote:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm still catching up, but why MMM?

post 241

Quote:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I just got home from dinner and have to finish packing for a 2 week business trip. I'll finish catching up on the thread in the morning at the airport.

From where I stand right now I think BID and are village (I think this is the earliest I've said this about Ong), probably JKDS as well. Gator and baud I'm not sure about. Gabe, I honestly don't remember much from.

MMM looks wolfiest to me. He's seemed different this game.

Lynch MMM

post 495

Quote:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

You make some good points in those posts. That may have been why my vote was on him this morning.

I've got to finish rereading.

rescind all
08-26-2015, 04:47 PM
baudib

"you make some good points, but let me rescind my vote on the guy you made a good point about."
08-26-2015, 04:52 PM
baudib

Rascal, get in here and vote for me and say stuff.
08-26-2015, 04:55 PM
baudib

actually you should say stuff before you vote for me, because after you vote it's MAJ STFU
08-26-2015, 05:02 PM
baudib

everyone else, explain in 40 words or less why you're voting for me

glgl
08-26-2015, 05:14 PM
baudib

To be fair to Rascal, he did say he'd be AFK a lot and he recently got lynched as seer because he couldn't defend himself.

I'm going with Ong followed by JKDS as the people with the most wolf points based on posting, Rascal is barely > rand to be a wolf.
08-26-2015, 05:56 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

yea but its probably a mistake to 100% always kill the best in spots like these. sometimes you gotta leave the best villagers alive, because they will surmise that you couldnt have the been the wolf (because like you said, you think its stupid, the best players will deduce you think its stupid, etc), then they can convince the rest of the village that its impossible for you to be a wolf!!

i love werewolf

BTW I was thinking about this and I'd say the correct analogy is raising with AA preflop. You can never be wrong by raising in any situation but occasionally there will be #raisins to not do it.
08-26-2015, 06:28 PM
baudib

on a hunch that rascal's "what's the case on XXX?" was a wolf tell (it's really perfect cover for an AFKish wolf) I went back and checked the May game thread, but he was doing a lot of that there too, as seer.

So there's very very little pointing to Rascal being a wolf really. I think I'll just stay on Ong.

glgl
08-26-2015, 06:32 PM
baudib

in b4 Rascal comes in howling obv
08-26-2015, 07:03 PM
baudib

wait i remembered something.

lynch JKDS
08-26-2015, 07:04 PM
baudib

Drew has actually proven to be pretty good at reading Ong, for him to get nommed he must have been right on a few things.
08-26-2015, 07:14 PM
baudib

RASCAL

If you actually got in here and posted I could probably clear you within 90% certainty if you're a villager. come on man.
08-26-2015, 07:50 PM
lilrascal

I just got back to the hotel. Going to catch up on the thread now.
08-26-2015, 08:01 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

I mean, LOL?

Drew was playing fine and was a pretty obvious villager but that's a godawful kill.

Someone's named popped into my head instantly when I saw it and I can't even explain why.

Level 1, Drew most wanted to lynch Rascal, so Rascal getting rid of Drew makes sense.

If Rascal makes this kill he can then point to, "Why is Gabe (Ong, Gator, JKDS) still alive?"

In a weird way, tell me if this is crazy, I think this clears the Luco voters. I mean, killing a Luco voter would be wolfing 101, but if the wolf bussed, I think he'd be even more likely to kill a fellow Luco voter, to drive home the idea that those voters were clean.

The wolf REALLY wanted BID dead.

I kind of follow what you're saying about the Luco voters.

I can see a couple of scenarios for possible bussing.
1 - Getting on early and then the wagon picking up steam and it looking bad to get off.
2 - Getting on late to get villa cred.

But, neither of those scenarios make sense with the BID NK.

I need to go back and ISO BID to see if anything stands out. He only had a single final vote each day, D1 for baudib and D2 for me.
08-26-2015, 08:08 PM
baudib

I think the BID kill is actually the strongest item pointing to you being a wolf.

it's maybe the only factor really.
08-26-2015, 08:10 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

Morning

Lets talk night kills. Imo, it was between Gabe, ong, and BID. Each had strong reasons to be a villager, and each was near cleared by the entire village. So why BID? 1) Theres the "oh noes, gabe is still alive...must be a wolf...." line. 2) BID is on the right track. 3) Gabe/ong are on the wrong track, or (and this is most likely imo) 4) its the "I would never kill BID, therefore im a villager" line.

Theres also second level stuff to make it look like one of those reasons. Thats way too fps tho.

I think BID was killed so the wolf could say he'd never make the kill. Which means its baudib, and I got tricked off of my read for like the billionth time this year.

Even if im wrong, its never gabe/ong, and its gator only 1% of the time. So long as you three trust each other then we never lose.

Lynch Baudib
Lynch Rascal

@Ong: I voted that way because the order of the lynches is largely irrelevant. Its one of MMM, Rascal, or Baudib; and we have more than enough lynches to get there.

@Gator: The Luco, Baudib, Gator, Gabe list wasnt made by choosing those 4. It was made by eliminating the other four.

looking at this post, "you three" is kinda odd when he's talking about a presumed group of villagers.
08-26-2015, 08:41 PM
lilrascal

Looking at BID's posts for possible reasons for his NK.

#66 call of JKDS as wolfy (with regards to his 4 player post with Luco at the top)

#234 quotes gator's post and points out gabe's lack of logic in clearing Luco voters and gabe voting for gator (a Luco voter)

#242 calls me wolfy but has baudib wolfier and votes baudib

#314 points out MMM wagon mainly pushed by gator and gabe, but respects their game so votes for me

#411 asks us to look at gabe and baudib if he gets nommed since they don't have him as a solid villager

Based on this I'd guess that BID was NK'd for his posts against gabe or baudib. It doubt it would be his post against JKDS because that was very early D1 and before the Luco lynch.
08-26-2015, 08:55 PM
baudib

BiD's logic there isn't very good IMO.

Like if Gabe is softly setting up a push on BID then he's certainly not going to kill him.

I'm not killing BID under any circumstances ever barring a seer hard claim, but that's been discussed.

anyway Rascal, just act under the assumption that I'm a wolf who will get lynched and flip wolf, but there's actually another wolf in the game.
08-26-2015, 08:56 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

This makes more sense to me than his posts. Why say the nightkill overrides everything but then follow with "After the NK I can't see lynching anyone else" (referring to Rascal). Those two posts, made almost back to back are not congruent with each other.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

Anyway, just ignore Ong because we're obviously all going to let him win if he's the wolf. I think he's got a little bit too much try hard going, but whatever.

Coming into today, I felt like Rascal was always the correct lynch but I really wanted a reason to YOLO someone. After the NK I can't see lynching anyone else. I could see a couple people FPSing it there but meh...Rascal was also not really caught up with the thread so probably didn't have a good feel for who's most clear.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

I completely disagree with this. Of all the people targeting Rascal Drew seemed the most ambivalent. This night kill actually takes my focus away from Rascal. I need to look through the thread, but I keep getting an uneasy feeling from you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

I don't even think Rascal is very wolfy, but I have good reasons to call everyone else in the game a villager.

Gator can't fool me with his null tone and role-neutral banter, he's trying to figure people out and thinking about the long-term shape of the village.
Gabe has extremely fluid, pure tone/thought processes.
JKDS is boxing himself into a tight corner if he's a wolf by hard-clearing half the game already.
Ong is doing a lot of work and voted for Luco.

-----------------------

I haven't done anything wolfy, but I didn't vote for Luco. That thing where JKDS tried to preemptively take credit for the Luco flip will haunt me until the end of the game, but he feels like a villager. Granted, I don't really know what his wolf game looks like.

So you should absolutely wagon me and Rascal, and if that doesn't work, kill Ong immediately at F3.

This interaction between gator and baudid make me think puts gator in my villa pile and baudib as the likely wolf.

First baudid thinks I'm the wolf and then he says he doesn't think I'm wolfy. I really don't like the flip-flopping by baudib here.
08-26-2015, 08:58 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

BiD's logic there isn't very good IMO.

Like if Gabe is softly setting up a push on BID then he's certainly not going to kill him.

I'm not killing BID under any circumstances ever barring a seer hard claim, but that's been discussed.

anyway Rascal, just act under the assumption that I'm a wolf who will get lynched and flip wolf, but there's actually another wolf in the game.

LOL. That last sentence made me literally LOL.
08-26-2015, 08:59 PM
OngBonga

It made me lol too. Notice how he assumes you're a villager?
08-26-2015, 09:02 PM
OngBonga

This isn't just a case of baudib being wolfy. This is also a case of everyone else being villagery. Even rascal, tbh. My problem with rascal is that I kinda expect a solid enough wolf game from him that this could be it. But he's villagery. There's only one person who isn't.

This is a no brainer really.
08-26-2015, 09:04 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

So anyway, we have Ongwolf properly tarped. If Ong tries to make a case against someone other than me today, I suggest we burn him with fire immediately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

lynch Rascal

These posts are two minutes apart. If you think Ong is a wolf, why are you wanting to lynch me?

That makes no sense.
08-26-2015, 09:06 PM
baudib

Rascal, I'm bending over backwards to get you to try to prove you're a villager when you're probably always the correct lynch today and this is the thanks I get?

To be quite frank, I expected more from you here and if you're a villager there's a really good chance we're gonna lose.

Look at Ong/JKDS and get your thoughts out there before you vote FFS.
08-26-2015, 09:08 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

These posts are two minutes apart. If you think Ong is a wolf, why are you wanting to lynch me?

That makes no sense.

I explained why I thought you are the correct lynch for like, a lot of reasons. In the event Ong is the wolf he shouldn't win because he set up the mislynches in the wrong order.

Clearly sentiment is against lynching Ong so it's not even worth my time.

I mean, you should know this but /Gadarene Werewolf is in inherently probabilistic game /Gadarene

acting like your assumption/vote is going to be correct even 50% of the time is going to be wrong
08-26-2015, 09:10 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm just clicking buttons and putting random words together here to bring you to the conclusion that baudib is a wolf

fyp
08-26-2015, 09:13 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

I said the exact opposite.

Oh, you said bid where you meant gator. I like how I picked up on gator assuming bid was alive, but not you.
08-26-2015, 09:13 PM
baudib

anyway Rascal, whenever you feel like ending the day go for it.

just put your thoughts out there

unless you're a wolf, in which case just roll over and die.
08-26-2015, 09:14 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Oh, you said bid where you meant gator.

You said bid where you meant baudib.

ffs

I'm drunk
08-26-2015, 09:14 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

fyp

I'm also reaching the conclusion that everyone else is town. I'm not just looking at you.
08-26-2015, 09:16 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm also reaching the conclusion that everyone else is town. I'm not just looking at you.

explain your SOD where every little thing I did in the game pointed to me being a wolf, even the stuff that contradicted what you said made me a wolf yesterday.

I swear if you're a villager this game I'm going to policy lynch you forever for this.
08-26-2015, 09:20 PM
OngBonga

Can you say that again in a way that I'll understand?
08-26-2015, 09:20 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

So anyway, we have Ongwolf properly tarped. If Ong tries to make a case against someone other than me today, I suggest we burn him with fire immediately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

anyway Rascal, whenever you feel like ending the day go for it.

just put your thoughts out there

unless you're a wolf, in which case just roll over and die.

I'm still catching up.

I'm putting my thoughts out there as I come to them in the thread.
08-26-2015, 09:22 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Can you say that again in a way that I'll understand?

Ong, your first 5-6 posts this morning that were exclusively about me in no way come from a logical, sane person who is actively trying to slve the game.

I realize you could be a villager and you need me to be out of the game to actually think correctly but once again this is a YOU problem that you might need to address at some point.

glgl
08-26-2015, 09:22 PM
baudib

Rascal, there aren't many posts, and you can just ignore mine. there are more posts in a D1 of a turbo.

sup with dat
08-26-2015, 09:23 PM
OngBonga

Glancing through JKDS' posts. Same story. There's moments of paranoia, but overall I like how he's handled me. I doubt he would have as part of his wolf strategy "get ong to townread me", I mean it's not like I have a good record of keeping alive my town reads, is it mojo? So yeah he feels legit in him trying to figure me out.
08-26-2015, 09:26 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

So anyway, we have Ongwolf properly tarped. If Ong tries to make a case against someone other than me today, I suggest we burn him with fire immediately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

lynch jkds

Ong is never a wolf.
Gabe is 75% villager imo due to style and tone. He just seems villager to me.
Rascal genuinely seems like he is busy and doesn't look as wolfish as I thought so I put him at 60%.
BID doesn't stand out one way or the other either so I will also put him at 50/50.
Baudib says some good and some bad but if JKDS isn't the wolf I think he would be so let's say 40%

Who wants to join me?

I'm assuming that you meant JKDS here instead of BID since you voted him.

If it's a derp clear attempt, it's a bad one.
08-26-2015, 09:27 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

Ong, your first 5-6 posts this morning that were exclusively about me in no way come from a logical, sane person who is actively trying to slve the game.

I realize you could be a villager and you need me to be out of the game to actually think correctly but once again this is a YOU problem that you might need to address at some point.

glgl

The problem is baudib that if you're a villager, you behave in a wolfy way. See my posts for further explanation. I don't like being wrong constantly asout the same person. But if I think you're wolfy, then expect me to say so. Previous results do not matter. You're wolfy this game. Noone else is. Bad luck.
08-26-2015, 09:27 PM
lilrascal

That first quote doesn't belong in my post #696. That was from an earlier MQ.

This not clearing of quotes is getting annoying.
08-26-2015, 09:28 PM
lilrascal

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

Rascal, there aren't many posts, and you can just ignore mine. there are more posts in a D1 of a turbo.

sup with dat

Because I'm reading rather than just reacting like I do in a turbo.
08-26-2015, 09:32 PM
baudib

Ong, I've played 10 straight games now comprising roughly 10,000 posts and 110,000 game posts and 300 players, and I've garnered probably a total of 20 votes. I've been killed exactly once in that period, so that's probably 50+ game days. Of those 20 votes, 4 of them have been from you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

The problem is baudib that if you're a villager, you behave in a wolfy way. See my posts for further explanation. I don't like being wrong constantly asout the same person. But if I think you're wolfy, then expect me to say so. Previous results do not matter. You're wolfy this game. Noone else is. Bad luck.

there is absolutely zero logic in anything that you've said about me.

exhibit A

"You sound like the wolf who is going to nom me tonight."

(Bid gets nommed)

"You're obviously the wolf because you didn't want to nom me."

like wat

how can these be real thoughts.

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