Why haven't you got a clue when yesterday you had it all figured out and have just been proven half right?
This is not the confidence of a villager who just fistpumped a wolf.
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I quoted the wrong post there for some reason, I meant to quote his "I haven't got the slightest clue".
Touche
I forgot I made that post about "ong and boog".
Your most recent posts are swinging me back to the other side of the fence on you.
If I was a wolf, I'd snap vote ong because it would be in line with my eod2 thinking. I wouldn't have just forgotten as a wolf.
Pretty disappointed in the participation this game but I shouldn't expect more time than the little I'm willing to invest.
How do you forget this after boog flips wolf?Quote:
I forgot I made that post about "ong and boog".
This is sort of believable. But you've named gator and hoopy as possible wolves today based on them quickly naming you today (even though I mentioned you before hoopy, which you seem to have missed). So, you've put me on the back burner, while keeping an open mind about two others, based on the speed in which they mentioned you today.Quote:
If I was a wolf, I'd snap vote ong because it would be in line with my eod2 thinking. I wouldn't have just forgotten as a wolf.
You said boog was a wolf and you were right, so why no boost of confidence? Why suddenly shrug your shoulders and say you haven't got a clue? It feels like you're trying to keep options open. Wolf needs two mislynches, and you've identified three.
I suspect you abandoned me becasue if I get lynched today, you're next. However, if we're both around on final day, you have a chance.
basically BID has given up on trying and is just flopping around. There is no way he should live through the day. If, for some very odd reason, he isn't the last wolf we deal with that tomorrow.
So lemme get this straight...
Gator and ong believe that boog started the game off by saying that I am the most pure soundling player in the game, then when the votes were close between me and him at the end of D2, he decided to buss me? Assuming because we were both gonna die anyways?
This is boogs final post.
Really?
REALLY?
Yup. Boog has gone full retard and made this post about his wolf buddy right before he dies.
GFY
Hey!! Look who is finally interested in the game.
Welcome BID, can you please let us know who you think the final wolf is and why?
Right so page one, JKDS hints he randed boog wolf. Since boog was indeed wolf, it's reasonable to think that wolves would think a) JKDS had indeed randed boog wolf, and b) that JKDS had higher special equity as a consequence.
hoopy #28 - "BooG's response is pretty aggressive, I didn't think rilla was being serious. "
rascal #29 - "Happy New Year everyone except JKDS. I think he's wolfy and we should just Lynch JKDS to start off the new year right. "
rascal then fake peeks me in response to rilla's vote on me, then attacks gabe for his language when he says we're going to have a mislynch, woops I mean we won't.
gabe #36 - "boog or rilla is a wolf"
rascal #37 - "What makes you say this? It could be v/v. What makes you way it's v/w so confidently? "
drew #40 - "JKDS toning wolfy"
drew #59 - "lynch JKDS; JKDS wolfing hard ong villaging "
Ok so through page one, JKDS is taking heat off me, rascal and drew. boog is taking heat from all the dead villagers and hoopy. smf (gator) turns up late, casts shade on me and jkds.
hoopy looks good, everyone else bad.
That said, from wolf pov, boog is already fucked, so would the other wolf push JKDS, knowing it would look bad later? Or would he seek to get some villager cred for when boog flips?
p2, and hoopy questions why me and rascal are so sure about JKDS. He then votes drew.
lots of rilla vs gabe, not interested in that for obvious reasons.
rascal backs off JKDS, I'll quote this because it's important...
votes drew two posts later, and excuses himself from eod. This puts boog in the lead, and it releases pressure on JKDS when wolves might at least want to force his claim, which they would surely anticipate.
I think rascal looks very good here. If he was seeking village cred, he'd vote boog outright.
Aha boog gives us a list of three...
I'm liking rascal even more now.
Ok that's d1 pretty much done.
This is the JKDS wagon -
JKDS (3) || ong [22], BID [59], boog [122]
rascal jumped off and voted for drew, which is where hoopy's vote was.
d2
hoopy #141 - "Interesting post about BooG. Both gabe and JKDS had him as suspicious which given the flips makes him worth looking at carefully. "
Ok if hoopy's a wolf he's playing the bussing card well.
boog #148 - goes out of his way to explain to both hoopy and rascal why he wouldn't nom gabe
drew #149 needs quoting...
That looks terrible. This is the second time he's called me a villager while sheeping me onto a bad wagon I started, and he even throws boog v points for a wolfy post.
onto p3
hoopy #153 reminding drew that there's no hurry
most of p3 is me vs rilla, I was wrong.
drew #182 - backs off rilla
drew #213 - votes me
hoopy #221 - votes boog while throwing shade on drew, looks very good.
p4, enter gator
gator#228, #229 - quick to give rilla village cred, quick to dismiss rascal's village cred
gator #233 - begins his read through and quickly isolates drew
rascal #234 - votes boog, once again points out he might not be around eod
gator #241 - puts big heat on boog
gator #243 - more boog heat
gator #245 - votes drew, which is strange given the heat he just dished out to boog. Also points out that hoopy could be bussing boog, this is before boog's flip.
drew #248 - calls me and boog wolves, his vote remains on me despite boog being a wagon on me not.
gator #252 - tells boog he thinks drew is more likely upon review.
boog #254 - responds to questions on his opinion of drew by throwing shade on him. Interesting he hasn't had much to say before.
gator #256 - asks boog why he isn't voting for drew.
boog #258 - votes drew under pressure.
boog #260 - claims angel. At this point boog knows he's fucked, so I think whatever he says from here on can be dismissed as the words of a caught wolf.
gator #261 - encourages boog to rally support for a drew lynch.
hoopy #262 - points out that drew's vote is on me. This is important because drew is capable of negating boog's vote for him by switching to boog.
Anyway, we're at end of day now and boog gets lynched.
d3 has been largely fingers pointed at drew from all angles.
I'll sum up my thoughts in a different post so it's not obscured by this wall.
Ok so drew is clearly today's lynch. He's easily the least villagery.
I'm near certain that hoopy and rascal are villagers, so if somehow it's not drew, then it has to be gator. it must be said, gator does seem very town toned, but I had him as nailed town last game and was wrong. We all know how good gator is and he can be wolfing here.
drew >>>>>>>> gator >>> rascal/hoopy
lynch drew
rescind
lynch ong
It's boog and ong. You heard it here first. Twice.
@gator: Yeah, I am suddenly interested in this game and have more free time at the same time. However, this can't be role indicative because I was on the chopping block on D2 and did fuck all.
Ong is the last wolf, mainly because I want to stick to my guns and bink both wolves this game. I apologize for attacking you recently but I think that was mostly emotional.
My ong strat this game:
1) don't get modkilled by fucking up like you usually do by slipping somehow
2) wait as long as possible before giving your "ong soul read". I hope you remember but probably won't, that the topic of my read on ong always comes up before D3. This time, it hasn't. It's because ong wants to avoid me doing a quick peek at his posts. Once, ong mentioned I have sick reads on him but never bothered to inquire what those reads were or why this game. This is a first.
3) Read the squabble between rilla and ong again.
Also, wtf is this shit?
Kill ong and this game is over. If he's a villager, I truly give up and officially relinquish my "soulreading ong" title.
I'm not intending to imply rascal is a wolf, I'm saying him and hoopy are villagers, and it's either you or drew, very probably drew.
I agree, rascal isn't a wolf. It's drew. Note that he waited for me to read through and post my thoughts before deciding whether to swing for me or not.
drew why didn't you vote for me earlier? Why did you wait for me to read through? What would you have done had I voted gator?
Ong wants to kill me because of the argument about who's stats were better for 2014-2015 (turned out to be mine btw).
You waited to see who I'd go for today.
I don't care drew, you're getting lynched, not me, and there won't be a tomorrow.
Enjoy throwing shit at me.
The red flag for me with drew is that he stated that ong and boog were wolves. But with the boog wagon gaining ground he stayed put on ong until the eod. Yesterday really reads like we had 2 wolf wagons and they didn't know what to do about it.
rascal looks ok to me for rescinding JKDS late on day 1 which put BooG in danger. I need to reread his day 2.
ong is a villager based on his tone, detective work and argument with rilla.
Gator is the wildcard.
I think drew is the best lynch by far today. Plenty of time left though, I'd like to have some more thoughts from rascal.
Off to bed.
The point that hoopy is making, which is obvious, is that if you think me and boog are wolves, then you should vote for the one more likely to get lynched.
The fact is, you threw shade on us both, voted for me, then did very little, which allowed you to avoid voting for the wolf. My wagon yesterday had one vote on it... yours. This meant you could have shifted your vote to boog if you get into trouble. Your voting yesterday was strategic. Villagers don't make strategic votes, they just try to lynch wolves.
You sat back and parked on me while boog, a wolf read of yours, was getting heat. That's telling.
I don't have a whole lot of thougths. For reasons others have stated, I think BID is most likely the wolf. If by chance it's not BID, then gator would be next in my POE.
Based on voting analysis, I don't think it's Hoopy and based on this day's posting, I don't think it's Ong.
I'll hold off on hammering just in case someone wants to discuss things more, but I'm ready to vote for BID.
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/...20151111052225
Greetings again.
It's time for
https://www.businessforhome.org/wp-c...ote_Counts.jpg
Player (votes) || Voter [post in which they voted]
BID (2) || Gator [308], ong [316]
ong (1) || BID [318]
no vote (2) || Hoopy, rascal
D3 ends at 10:00 PM GMT on Sunday, January 10 at 10:00 PM GMT.
I don't see me voting anyone other than BID today and it doesn't look like anyone wants to talk, so I'll hammer it in about an hour unless someone wants to talk thru things.
Lynch BID
ARRRROOOOOOOOO
Fuck you, ong. GG
LOL.
GG all.
Since this started in 2015, does it go for 2015 stats or 2016?
And yes, it would put you ahead of drew.
GG all and thanks for modding mmm.
I'm actually a villager.
Wait for MMM for the flip imo
Guys, guys, guys.
maj counts as EOD.
The first rule of EOD is STFU at EOD.
Anyhoo.
It looks like BID is gonna be real dead right about nowish.
BID is so good at all the games.
I found this vid. of BID's flip:
http://i.imgur.com/GStKb.gif
http://cdn.gamer-network.net/2015/us...eviewSpot1.jpg
Yep, BID is a goner.
BID's role PM said he was a Vanilla Villager.
Spoiler:I wouldn't ever deceive BID - not in such a respectable game.
Oh, man, looks like LYLO on D4 in ~27.5 hours.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COpjDB0WEAEexcE.png
Hey Hoopy,
http://silasgreen.com/wp-content/upl...-and-stuff.png
Oh noooooes!
Found this vid of the Hoopman flipping his hoodie up
http://i.imgur.com/rULZq.gif
Hoopman is hardcore.
Oh, by the way,
Hoopy's PM said he was a Vanilla Villager.
Spoiler:'cause he was a Vanilla Villager
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/...20151111052225
Greetings again.
It's time for the final showdown,
a final match of wits do determine who will live and who will die.
It is LYLO on D4, just what I asked for for Robot Christmas.
I am so robot excited to witness how you all perform.
Thread is open.
EOD is maj @ 2 votes
The players:
Gator
rascal
ong
If I am not around at maj, please stop posting while I have a chance to catch up.
Rascal, if you are the final wolf then gg. If not I am not sure I will be able to convince you that Ong is the final wolf so it is highly likely he will win.
I will look through the thread to see if I can find any nuggets, but he too has played a pretty good game and I still can't get my head wrapped around the final wolf not being one of BID or Hoopy.
I'm here. I'm not the wolf.
I mean it's very probably gator. He's already made his mind up. I guess I have too, but I at least intend to read through again with an open mind. rascal is a very good wolf and I'm keeping that in mind.
That said, this is obviously an easy win for rascal if he's wolf, so it might be better if me and gator just mutually vote. Then I don't have to have to be paranoid about rascal.
lol gator
I hint that I'm keeping an open mind with rascal, and you imply you're doing the same, having implied otherwise in your opening post.
Let's face facts. If rascal is the wolf, he's won. On that basis, I can't be bothered to read through again, just to hand rascal the win he was always getting. I'd rather him win quickly if that's how it's gonna be, and if not, I can read through knowing you're the wolf.
That seems to me a more efficient means of using my time.
I'm not gonna vote until rascal is here. But I'll likely force your hand before I read through, which will be tomorrow.
I haven't had a chance to reread, but I'll get to it. Looking at vote counts, both of you look wolfy.
Ong, the only time you voted for a wolf was against Boog (which was the hammer), but Boog was getting lynched either way, so I don't give you any village credit for that.
Gator, the only player you've voted was BID on both D2 and D3. No villa points there either.
I'll go back and reread, but share your thoughts so we can solve this.
Yeah my voting has been abysmal this game. But I'll say this... I'm very good at getting village cred for bussing wolf bros. If I know boog is a wolf, I'm not waiting around until he howls before jumping on board.
Ask yourself why you're alive rascal. Wouldn't this be much easier for me as wolf if it were hoopy and gator? How about gator? Does he get a lynch from anywhere else? You've been suspicious of me through most of the game. Furthermore, I'm prepared to face off with gator. That's because I know I'm not the wolf. Would I relish the idea of taking on gator with you making the deciding vote if I was the wolf?
I know my voting makes me look bad. That's why I'm still here.
I got impatient. Thoughts on gator...
This is gator's sencond post. Immediately casting doubt on village reads.
gator reads smf as null, which is odd.
Casts shade on boog, but votes drew.
Gives boog some breathing space.
gator asks boog what he thinks of drew, boog replies, gator asks why he's not voting for drew, boog votes for drew.
half an hour later, boog claims angel. This now is clearly an effort to get drew lynched instead. Note that I called bullshit on boog rather than pushing for drew. Why, as wolf, would I spend the game defending boog, then turn on him when he claims? That doesn't make sense. Note that gator remained parked on drew, while I backed off.
gator using my post to impress the idea that drew can still be wolfing with boog...
Note here that gator is reluctant to consider who could be the wolf if it's not drew. Keeping options open, rather than committing himself.
That brings up to today.
There's many reasons why gator is wolfy here.
I'll read through rascal's posts now.
This after JKDS hinted he randed boog wolf. This is villagery to me, I think the wolf would realise that attacking JKDS is defending boog and will look awful later. This is in line with my d1 thinking.
Again, this kinda looks good for the same reason. Defending boog so openly when wolves would be worried he's already fucked.
More of the same. Strong chainsaw defence.
rascal backs off JKDS when his wagon is in full steam, moves to drew. Kinda null in retrospect I guess.
This nails it for me. This is d2, JKDS has flipped and the wolves will be mighty relieved to see JKDS wasn't a special, JKDS' flip takes quite a lot of heat off boog, at least initially. rascal has spent d1 defending boog when it would make more sense not to, and then d2 he busses him when there's less pressure? That's never wolf-wolf interaction.
Does what I did and gator didn't. Named a next most likely suspect in the event drew was villager.
And then hammer's drew.
Yeah I'm set. If rascal's a wolf he's played perfectly. I think gator said somewhere for rascal to be a wolf, he's better than gator himself. He'd be right.
I'll wait for both of you to respond but it's clear where my vote is going.
Give me 5-10. I am almost through.
Day 1
Boog gets three quick votes then jumps in with a JKDS lynch and then moves to Rilla. Rascal jumps in with a JKDS vote with this post:
At that point, with the exception of one post JKDS had been pretty flippant.
He then follows with this post which I find interesting because he has played here enough to know that people don't generally fake peek here. Why did he feel the need then to do that? Probably null but at least worth pointing out.
In his next post he defends his JKDS vote, but provides no other thoughts then again in his next post.
At this point both Gabe and Ong start defending JKDS. MMM posts a vote count that has JKDS at 3 and Boog at 2 with approx. 4 hours left.
Now we get to the entire reason why everyone thinks Rascal is villager. With approx 3 hours left in the day he quotes three of JKDS' posts and does this:
He doesn't vote for anyone else but his rescind puts Boog in the lead because he got to two votes before JKDS did. It is worth noting that at this point Boog's vote is on Rilla.
He then makes these three posts in order:
This gives BID two votes.
Boog then makes this post.......
...which gives Gabe two votes.
Both of these put Gabe, Boog, JKDS and BID all on two votes.
Boog then flies in with this vote to put JKDS at three.
He then follows with this post.
Day 1 ends with JKDS being lynched.
Here is what I think may have happened. They knew that moving off of Boog would give Rascal villager cred, but wasn't that dangerous because Boog could sort of control who got a third vote. They then split up between BID and Gabe to see if one of those two or JKDS picked up a third vote. When that didn't happen Boog flipped back to JKDS to save himself.
Day 2
Boog spends the first half defending himself and trying to make Seer Gabe look wolfy to justify his suspicion.
Rascal posts his vote chart then makes the following post:
Looking at it now it is very plausible that the wolves knew JKDS was seer and had potentially looked up Boog. Notice though that Rascal doesn't consider that Gabe was killed because of his suspicion of Boog even though Gabe mentioned Boog as a wolf even though there were SIX posts where Gabe mentioned Boog was a wolf.
He then makes this post suspecting Ong.
Ong and Drew then pick up one vote while Boog picks up two and Boog was getting the most heat by far.
Rascal then makes this post:
This just seems to be COMPLETELY out of the blue to me.
I then came in and made it two for BID, which on the surface looks bad for me but I will explain that in another post.
Btw, Boog has not voted at this point. I ask him why he hasn't voted for BID and then he does, but the vote is meaningless unless BID gets a fourth vote and there is less than 2 hours left in the day.
Boog then outs as the angel with Rilla, Hoopy and Rascal voting for him. Hoopy makes a couple of posts but doesn't rescind. Ong pokes holes in his theory but then rescinds and puts BID in the lead. Hoopy then, out of nowhere, recants his story and rescinds BID putting himself back in the lead. This makes no sense unless he wanted everyone to think BID was his wolf buddy.
Ong then puts his vote back on Boog to seal the deal.
Day 3
Rascal opens with his chart then makes this post:
He then quoted a couple of my posts with these two about BID/Hoopy:
...and this one when I pointed out that Boog was worried about another rescind...
...but that isn't true. There were at least 3-4 people online at EOD so another rescind was entirely possible.
It's almost like he wants to look soft on villager Drew.
He then makes this post....
He then votes for BID and we all thought game over.
Now, for my final thoughts. If Rascal is a villager why was hoopy nommed instead of him when both you and I had him as a LOCK villager. Wouldn't both of us, as a wolf, want to get to the last day with Hoopy instead of Rascal? I think Hoopy was nommed because he never had Rascal as lock villager as we did. Now Rascal is just sitting back waiting for one of us to vote the other so he can swoop in for the win.
And finally, you and I have been putting a ton of analysis in while he has basically just sat back and rested on that rescind making him look villager. However, when you REALLY look at how things played out it wasn't that balsy of a move for a wolf to make.
I don't think you are the final wolf. I think it is Rascal.
PS - I didn't re-read the above so excuse any clerical errors. I am just trying to get his posted before I have to get some work done.
"Looking at it now it is very plausible that the wolves knew JKDS was seer"
This was supposed to say Gabe.
Well I gotta admit I didn't expect this. I figured that your only hope as wolf is to sell me to rascal. I know I've played badly enough that it wouldn't be difficult to build a case on me.Quote:
I don't think you are the final wolf. I think it is Rascal.
Gonna mull this over while we wait for rascal.
Hoopy and me were mutually reading each other as near locks. I don't think hoopy-ong is better for you from a wolf pov than rascal-ong. You at least know that rascal is not sure enough of me that he might vote for me. Hell, it makes sense actually for you to swing for rascal here instead of me, because you might convince me, and rascal still might vote for me.Quote:
Wouldn't both of us, as a wolf, want to get to the last day with Hoopy instead of Rascal?
I'm still leaning in your direction here gator.