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MMM, mentioning JKDS "by POE" is not really mentioning him
you have like zero posts before the one I quoted talking about him in a way that makes it seem like you have any interest in determining his alignment.
JKDS is hard to read. I did a thread re-read/ISO on him and all I could find that left me with an open question until the exchange between JKDS and baudib was that odd attack on gabe.
I asked him a question about it, and he has not responded.
My read on you as wolfy was put on hold while I re-evaluated my read. Assertingt, "If I assume that baudib is a villager..." is different from saying "baudib is a villager." You see that, right?
I was exploring the implication of my primary hypothesis being false.
MMM lacks any real progression on anyone in the game. These are literally all the posts where he mentions JKDS
Before this post your leanings on JKDS was villagery "I don't see the case on him."
MMM post #182 (where he says JKDS feels villagery) comes after the JKDS post that MMM later cites (#354) as being wolfy as sin.
Opinions change. Reflection occurs. Questions have been asked.
I'm not voting JKDS, but you're trying to make it out like I am "setting something up."
Same goes for gator.
Your evil eye on me is simply killing any supposed rep you may claim anywhere else. You have the gall to be butthurt when people don't follow you, but all you're doing is targeting a V. Yet you suggest it's my fault you're voting for me when I'm posing questions and showing a trail of my evolving reads over time.
Your tunneling is the fault, here. IF you are V, then this ridiculous push you're making on me is terrible play.
I didn't even want to play this game and I certainly don't expect anyone to follow me. nor do I care about such things.
every single post you've made in this game is an abomination and there's not a single pro-villa sentiment in any of them.
how do you read JKDS' post at 12:40 yesterday and say at 1:20 that he feels villagery and then 180 posts later, you quote that post and say it is "wolfy as sin."
that's not a clear progression that makes any sense if you're actually trying to make a read on him.
This is much better from baudib.
Both gabe and baudib have stated that I am not a solid villager in their eyes. If I get nommed, which I predict will happen, look at them.
Drew you get nommed tonight like 20% of the time at best, bro.
the problem is that everyone in the game is going to flip villager more than 50% of the time, I think.
I'd guess something like
MMM 35%
JKDS 20%
Rascal 15%
Gabe 11%
Gator 8%
Ong 7%
Drew 4%
and I probably have Gator way too low but w/e, I think he's a villager.
Good. I'm having fun following along. I'm MIA as soon as I die until the next game starts.
I disagree with you though. I think the best play for the wolf to do is to nom the most likely villager.
I believe I am that villager.
Fuck me, nie I'm starting to sound like dhubs.
For the record, I feel it to be a terribly risky and horrible play for either one of the only two wolves in the game to bus each other. There's only two of them. It's straight up horrible.
I'm looking at everyone not on the Luco wagon.
I'll do the same for the funzies...
Rascal 35%
Baudib 20%
MMM 15%
JKDS 11%
Gator 8%
gabe 7%
ong 4%
These percentages best add up to 100.
Drew, I've played about 100 turbos, and bussing on D1 certainly does happen, especially if it looks like your partner is going to be a liability.
The problem the wolves have in that spot is they really need to hit the seer on n1, otherwise the game should be easily POEd with 2 live peeks.
in this game we don't even have a seer, so getting clearance on voting your AFK partner is definitely viable.
I just read the OP again, actually not being able to no lynch at F4 is pretty pro-wolf, so it's not as imbalanced as I thought.
F4 could be a real bitch.
f4 with two lynches is no worse than a regular f3, in fact it's better because there's a bonus 25% lynch.
The lack of specials is what balances up the double lynch, imo.
Also, im pretty sure im wrong on baudib.
unlynch Baudib
Lynch MMM
good good
I think we end the game here a lot.
MMM appears frozen
Nope, just SMH.
You're all about to see me flip V, and then face the ramifications.
I'd offer further words, but I know better than to assume anyone reads the thoughts of the dead villagers.
***
baudib, I'd admonish you, but we both know that you'll ignore me, and learn nothing from this lynch, so I wont bother.
Admonish me for what? What ramifications?
we have 3 mislynches to get it right. you haven't been helpful, and you're terribly likely to be helpful in the future, and particularly not likely to be helpful in end game, so...?
exactly
gjge
MMM you're talking as if you know I'm a villager.
Nope, just talking as if I know that you're too thick headed to make a mistake and then take any responsibility for the mistake.
If you happen to be a villager, then the mistake is my ML.
If you happen to be a wolf, then I think you're clearly in line to lose this game.
It's a mistake, either way.
you're in the clearly identifiable POE
you haven't been villagery
your posts are convoluted and devoid of content
it is always correct to lynch you, there's no mistake here whatsoever
you can't even make a case against any of your counter wagons at this point
you made an absurd progression on JKDS, who, from your POV, should be one of the most likely wolves.
you will flip wolf a lot
when you don't, we just LOL you and move on.
not much more to it.
rescind JKDS
exactly.
No learning to be had for baudib. Just stick to your guns and keep lynching villagers.
what is there to be learned exactly? what villageryness are we supposed to see in your game?
Who do you think the wolf is?
why am I even talking to you?
Because you know you're about to lynch someone who was an early village lean by most, and whom has been involved in the conversation, asking and answering questions.
The case on me is paper thin, and you're all about to see that.
Enjoy.
the case on everyone is paper thin. everyone is more likely to be a villager than a wolf at this point.
your response here, incidentally, isn't villagery.
Final wolf is in:
baudib
gator
JKDS
lilrascal - wildcard
Do not lynch:
BID
gab
ong
Spoiler:I know better than to believe anyone will read this and give a half a shit
MMM you're supposed to be good at math right?
you know that villagers lynch villagers more often than they lynch wolves.
you're my biggest wolf lean and i said you will flip villager 65% of the time
what am I supposed to learn from your flip?
that you play badly in both roles?
exactly
I already knew that.
mojo is town.
lynch rascal
i doubt it
I mean, maybe, but he certainly needs to die pretty soon regardless.
MMM if you're a villager you need to self-pres
EOD is like 11 hours from now?
Rascal get in here.
Oh snap.
I thought Hoopy was an hour late.
Hang on. I thought I was already dead.
I'm starting food now. Back in a bit.
Is it just me or is MMM fighting REAL hard to stay alive. After bagging a wolf on D1 I am not sure I would fight that hard.
It doesn't matter to me which of Rascal or MMM we lynch today as long as the other is lynched tomorrow (if we are wrong today).
If neither of those two is the final wolf I would take a harder look at baudib. Some of his posts look villagery, but a lot more look very flippant which is a strategy I have used very successfully as a wolf in prior games.
"Fight that hard as a villager" is what that should have said
I'm 100% with Gator
Just got in and I see I have a lot to catch up on.
rescind baudib
Re-reading.
MMM, can you give me some cliffs and your thoughts?
Also, have you figured out how to do a spreadsheet with the double votes?
I'm not sure there is MAJ in this game.
voter || who they're voting for
baudib || MMM
BID ||rascal
gabe || MMM
Gator || rascal
JKDS || rascal, MMM
lilrascal || MMM
MMM || (no vote)
Ong || rascal
***
My spreadsheet is an ugly mess. I have kept track of the votes, but I don't have any way of graphing them.
This MQ not clearing is messing with me.
I think MMM is a wolf.
I don't want him to MAJ anyone. MMM is basically being super anti-village and mopey, and can't even make a coherent argument as to why anyone who is voting for him or anyone of his viable counterwagons can/should be a wolf.
any villager should self-pres in his spot.
Rascal, you aren't getting me lynched today.
I'll give you 30 mins to vote someone else or I'll MAJ you with zero ragrets.
rescind rascal
read the past 2 pages?
I'm going to bed. How long is left?
Yeah I think it's 1pm.
Fuck this aids then. I'll be back before deadline.
rascal read 385 and 405
In this case, I don't think so. With an afk wolf that is getting heat, it would be easy to bus in that case, especially in a game without a seer. Someone, could ride that vote for days.
I don't know if that's what happened, but Luco's lynch wasn't wolf hunting to me, but just getting rid of the afk player.
I'm rereading; don't maj me out of context. My reads on everyone are in the thread, despite what baudib says.
By the time I was bickering with baudib, I thought the day was basically over.
Me saying that baudib wont learn anything from ML me is a separate comment that has no bearing on the game and is in no way supposed to be any kind of explanation for myself. Other than that baudib is wrong about me and if he manages to ML me, then he's going to blame me for it and learn nothing / improve none.
I asked gabe why he's voting me (twice), and he still hasn't answered.
the fact that others appeared villy is included in the decision to lynch luco though
i think its +ev to lynch mmm and i cant pick anyone who is more +ev. this airplane wine has given me trouble remembering who MMM even thinks is more +ev than him
gator i dont find MMM necessarily fighting harder than avg at this point. i think MMM has some true grit and would not roll over dead if he was a solo wolf (anyone who does this is always a pussy. feel free to call me one if i ever get caught going this)
I've been reading BID as villa, but this post doesn't make sense to me unless he's trying to pocket gabe and gator. He calls both of them out as the possible wolf, then says he respects their games and then votes for me.
I don't see his logic or any progression in this vote.
i'm back in the thread after after a serious wine session with this stranger next to me on my 2nd flight of the day
i explained you had some wolfy vibes. i'm sure i did this at one point. i have not been able to pinpoint as many wolfy vibes in other people. jkds, and gator all have them to some extent. rascal and bid i'm weary of because i would HATE it if they were a wolf and i didnt step up and catch it. and i'm not worried about ong and baudib for now. that leaves you. the fact you keep asking this makes me more skeptical of you, but by all means... do you