holy shit a lot happened while I was gone.
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holy shit a lot happened while I was gone.
tbh I still can't believe Gravy was a wolf.
I'll read through what's been going on the last day or so tomorrow. Just want to post right now so Nekid doesn't get all angry at me again.
I'm not trying to seem married to my aqua vote since the whole purpose of it was just to choose someone who seemed like they'd be a shitty villager or luck a wolf on day 1, but do his last two posts not seem too good at being shitty? like, they're absolute cliche perfection of that non-ftr regular that signs up for werewolf. with gabe's strategy being to play a new guy how do we know that wasn't the whole den's strategy? I'm not sold on this but I'm getting that gut feeling and would like to hear someone smarter than me give their thoughts on this.
-primy
Here's my list, lynch roughly from the bottom up
Confirmed Vill / v likely vill
Aznchicks
Shoryuken
Taint
Duck – almost never a wolf here.
Ducksucks – very villagery
Agua – cleared by voting imo
Cig butt – pushed hard for gravy
Lean vill
Alargeprimate – something about his nekid interaction struck me as villagery
Buck nekid – Not getting a wolfy vibe tbh
Gaston – gravy interaction gives him a reasonable village lean
QuadroSpazz – he kinda looks bad on the gravy train, but I’m still not feeling it. He had a major blind spot for gravy, but his 'can we just lynch cig' was a bit blatant imo.
DarkwingDuck – less sure about this but if I’ve ID’d him correctly then he’s villager.
Likely wolf
Lynchpelion – looks bad on the gravy train.
Moarcowbell – the wolf on the gravy wagon, also this:
It’s not just that he asked gravy if he was a wolf, he went on to post that gravy didn’t answer the question! Moarcowbell, seriously, what did you expect the answer to be and what would you have learned from gravy saying no? Weak attack, wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by moarcowbell
Reminds us all that gravy was on his radar as he puts his vote in.Quote:
Originally Posted by moarcowbell
acknowledges gravy is likely fuckedQuote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
doesn't wait for his flip before jumping on the leading bandwagon, who gravy is calling a perfect lynch
fishy
Sounds a bit villagery.Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkWingDuckSounds a bit Wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
errr, both? I don't understand the difference...Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkWingDuck
To quote myself, "I don't understand the Gravy Train."Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
BTW, Cig's reply to that was, "I wouldn't expect you to."
Anyway, after the Gravy death msg posted nobody would have wasted a vote on him regardless.
I was all about Aqua even through the long Gravy Train but then the Shoryu wagon started gaining speed.
So I looked deep at that and agreed with the reasoning going on.
With less than a half hour left, I figured there's no way Aqua could be a wolf (basically self-lynching).
With the votes at that time being:
5 Shoryuken Ducksucks, gravyhog, duck, Gaston, Taint
3 Aguapurificada alargeprimate, quadrospazz, buck nekid
2 Gravyhog Cigarette Butt, moarcowbell
2 Gaston Lynchpelion, Darkwingduck
1 ducksucks Shoryuken
1 alargeprimate Aguapurificada
...I jumped on the Shory bus as last voter of the day. At that point, my vote wouldn't have changed anything anyway.
Well, Cigarette, like all cancer causing substances, I believe in removing it as soon as possible. You're offensive nature is repulsive to me. A villager supports teambuilding, wolves have a false sense of power. My eyes are on you like a rubbernecker at a bad accident; waiting to see the carnage. I refuse to lower myself to your level by engaging in meaningless hostility. Support your fellow villagers or face the firing squad. I'm done with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cigarette butt
yeah...when mod hinted at an extension I sent a PM saying it was very poor form so late in the day. I wasn't happy with that ext.Quote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
Obviously just catching up here. I didn't catch the "go ahead and post at night" thing until now.
yup, yupQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
why are you glad to be alive? seriously, what's the point in registering if you're not going to play??Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
I heart u primyrilla :)Quote:
Originally Posted by alargeprimate
Funny...Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
Werewolves hate me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
village loves you thoughQuote:
Originally Posted by Cigarette butt
honest
You won't believe what he does next!Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Night ends in 3 hours.
No way a straight villager speaks out for the group like this!Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Especially at someone as questionable as Cig.
what gives, duck?
Night actions have completed. Narration coming. DO NOT POST.
Day will begin within the hour.
POST! nyuck, nyuck, nyuck...
Buck Nekid has been modkilled.
He was
Spoiler:a regular villager
Her name was Magdalena. He didn't know her last name or where she was from. Estonia, Croatia, Bosnia...one of those former Soviet block countries where the women, even the blue-eyed blondes like Magdalena, were somehow exotic and mysterious. She was straight from a Bond movie.
She wasn't nearly that fascinating, however, as beautiful as she was. He had never even heard her speak except for the robotic, "Cocktails? Coffee?"
She was a waitress in the private game,living off a $1 tip here and there. If you slipped her a $20 she was good for an unsatisfying massage.
Didn't matter, Primy was in love anyway.
The board read 973 2. He was facing an all-in on the turn and quickly called with his two pair, proudly tabling the 72 that he had flatted with preflop. His opponent, furious, tabled two red Aces. The river flashed a small black card -- sick sweat -- but it was the :4s:
Primy had doubled up. He had rent money, and maybe even enough to take Magdalena out for a drink.
He called for a rack immediately and cashed out his $1100 in winnings.
His opponent was still steaming. "I rarely, if ever, get PMS....but you better watch your back."
Primy, feeling emboldened by his huge win, grabbed Magdalena by the arm and pulled her close, leaning in for a passionate kiss.
He didn't notice the small knife until it was 4 inches deep into his rib. He was dead before he hit the floor.
Magdalena winked at the poker player, and quickly pocketed her share of the cash.
The poker player walked calmly to the door, knowing his partner would be in the alley waiting in a getaway car. He flicked a single card over Primy's body as he walked out.
It was the :as:
Alargeprimate wasSpoiler:a regular villager.
DO NOT POST
The living
Quadrospazz
Duck
Ducksucks
Gaston
Taint
Cigarette butt
DarkWingDuck
Moarcowbell
Lynchpelion
Aguapruificada
The dead:
Aznchicks, a dumbass, modkilled on D1.
Gravhog, a wolf, modkilled on D1.
Shoryuken, a regular villager, lynched on D1.
Buck Nekid, a regular villager, modkilled on N1
Alargeprimate, a regular villager, eaten by the wolves on N1.
5 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Every Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
2 Wolves
It is DAY. You may post.
For the record, I modkilled Buck Nekid because his behavior had been borderline in a lot of ways to begin with.
I don't think he had bad intentions but he was making an already difficult game harder to mod. Earlier tonight,he posted in a non-game thread under his Buck Nekid account in a way that would make it very obvious who it was. I deleted it, PMed him to explain, and it was clear from his response that he didn't get why it would be bad to basically out himself. Even though I acted quickly, the post easily could have been read by other players, opening up a whole new can of worms.
Not being able to refrain from posting for 5 minutes while I was posting key game information wasn't an encouraging sign and was basically the last straw.
primy - agua (twice)
gaston - agua
buck nekid - agua
moarcowbell - agua
buck nekid - rescind agua
duck - gravy
taint - gravy
darkwingduck - gravy
lynchpelion - agua
quadrospazz - agua
buck nekid - agua
gaston - rescind agua lynch gravy
cigarette butt - gravy
quadrospazz - rescind agua
moarcowbell - rescind agua lynch gravy
quadrospazz - lynch agua
(I tell people to get off gravy)
gaston - rescind gravy
(Baud says will leave open for a bit)
lynchpelion - rescind agua
(Baud extends deadline)
darkwingduck - rescind gravy
taint - rescind gravy
buck nekid - rescind agua
I think everything we need to know may be in here
Tied at 3v3, Pelion puts agua ahead of gravyQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
At 6v3 with Agua in lead, Gaston makes it 5v4Quote:
quadrospazz - agua
buck nekid - agua
gaston - rescind agua lynch gravy
This activity puts Gravy in the lead up to 6v3. Hard for either of them to be wolvesQuote:
cigarette butt - gravy
quadrospazz - rescind agua
moarcowbell - rescind agua lynch gravy
quadrospazz - lynch agua
Gets confusing now. After Gravy was out of harms way and people started bolding Gaston, he said Gaston is 99% villager and to not lynch himQuote:
(I tell people to get off gravy)
gaston - rescind gravy
Taint and Darkwingduck were early Gravy adopters and made no move to get off him before the deadlineQuote:
(Baud says will leave open for a bit)
lynchpelion - rescind agua
(Baud extends deadline)
darkwingduck - rescind gravy
taint - rescind gravy
buck nekid - rescind agua
I don't know exactly what to make of this because it is possible the wolves were trying to get tricky and that could involve purposely putting Gravy in the lead. I think the most likely scenario is that at least one wolf was on the Agua wagon. It would be very strange if the Agua wagon had zero wolves on it. The only living players who bolded Agua are Gaston, Moarcowbell, Lynchpelion, and Quadrospazz
There almost has to be a wolf among those four.
6v4 actuallyQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
There is a decent probability that both wolves were on the Agua wagon at some point as well
Added bolded to fix. I missed because Duck didn't type rescindQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
The next most likely spot for a wolf is to adopt Gravy early and rescind when he's in trouble. That makes Duck and Gaston. Go back over the page Duck rescinded Gravy. It was right after he hit top spot, right after he said he liked a Gravy lynch, right after Shoryuken became the next building wagon, right after Gravy (who he said he like the lynch of) bolded Shoryuken
Not sure, but I think Duck suxs missing my gaston vote.
Gaston and
Ducksucks/ Cowbell are scum
Maybe duck.
Lynch gaston
jfcQuote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
Yeah, I'm not reading a lot into the extension.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Gravy gave up Duck here. When this first happened I just assumed Duck had posted about it ITT then they were deleted then I moved on because I don't like thinking about these sorts of things. But going back over it and trying to figure out Duck's role, I see that the only way Gravy would know that Duck knows his account is through wolf den.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
Sorry Duck. I think you were done for anyways
lynch duck
As for who the last wolf is, well, that's a tough one. I think we should kill everybody who voted for Agua, starting with Gaston, because after Gravy was in the super clear, he hated a Gaston lynch. The problem with both Duck and Gaston being wolves is that they majorly screwed the pooch on d1. There was no feasible way for them to save Gravy. Maybe they just fucked up is all
I probably should have saved this post for later in order to get more posts, but I could easily forget about it
I was picking only votes related to Agua and Gravy since there are probably a couple patterns in there that can tell us which pools both wolves belong toQuote:
Originally Posted by DarkWingDuck
i know im not a wolf. i didnt think gaston was on day1. im also not convinced about ducksucks theory but its def worth consideration.
i like a duck lynch and am leaning that way. i would still like to know the reason behind his aroooo post.
gee, thanks obama!Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
Actually it's possible I'm wrong about Gravy giving up Duck from the den.
In post 335 Duck says "sigh" then an hour later in 336 Gravy says he "just made a phone post and deleted it". Well, if we knew that the deleted post was before Duck's "sigh" then it means Duck saw it ITT, and Gravy only realized an hour later that he posted as Gabe
But even then, I don't think this makes Duck look good. If Gabe posted under his real account and Duck was a wolf, I think he would have said "sigh", but if he's a villager he probably would have said more or something else
Day will end at 6 p.m. EST Tuesday (about 41.5 hours from now) or when majority vote of 6 is reached.
1 gaston (DarkWingDuck #434)
1 duck (ducksucks #437)
Day ends in approximately 40 hours, or when a majority of 6 votes is reached.
GG Buck. If you think about it, these sort of posts are unfair to the wolves as it gives a strong hint about your alignment in a rather cheap manner. I'm sure that wasn't your intention though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck Nekid
I don’t get the duck hate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Duck looks villager to me. Also, it’s kinda funny how ducksucks was the one putting the brakes on a gravy lynch and now he’s suspicious of duck for basically listening to himQuote:
Originally Posted by duck
This. This is solid.Quote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
I think the two people who looked the worst on the gravytrain were lynchpelion and quadrospazz, they both had cold feet over bolding him.
good god
i'm a wolf because gravy outed me?
you see where i said "sigh"?
that's where i facepalm because gabe posted
something about the three sentences i posted
a direct reply to me, relating to the conversation i'm having with gravy regarding gaston
it was obvious to me that gravy = gabe
yes, i am wolfy because of the way i moved my vote off gravy right near deadline, i'm not gonna dodge that
i am not wolfy due to knowing who gravy was, and saying i am is stupid
agree with thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Taint
throw in gaston and we have ourselves three strong wolf candidates imo
lynch quadrospazz
i read this after replying to youQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
as a villager, i say "sigh". i know this because that's what happened. what do i do if i'm a wolf? idk, because i'm not a wolf.
i think that my response is extremely villager, personally. as a wolf i'd probably nudge him in the den and hope he deletes that mofucker before anyone notices. maybe. idk what i do as wolf because i'm not a wolf. i know what i do as villager though. i sigh.
God dammit at this rate the mod is going to end up a mass murderer.
Lets try not to do anymore stupid things guys.
way to feign annoyance
my first reaction was to laugh
laugh because buck was a potential wolf and he's done us a favour
us being village, ofc
by the way
compare the way that ducksucks assessed the potential for me to be a wolf
then compare that with gaston just as the night started
ducksucks feels like a villager who is trying to figure stuff out, he's using the evidence to weight up the potential for me to be both wolf and villager
gaston just spewed at me like a man on a mission. he didn't seem to care about if i'm a villager, his motive is to show i am a wolf based on the gravy flip and the way i shifted my vote. he ignores evidence that suggests i'm a villager, and focusses on what is wolfy
there is a distinct difference between gaston and ducksuck's attacks on me
I am annoyed. Anything that reduces the number of villagers is bad, don't see how this is up for debate.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
quad > agston > pelion
i'd be annoyed if i were a wolfQuote:
Originally Posted by quadrospazz
that was a potential mislynch
Looking at the village right now.
agua is basically cleared in my mind after the voting yesterday. Might be dangerous to let him get to endgame but we've other thing to do right now.
Of all the ducks I like ducksucks as a villager best, good deductive reasoning in his posts and a very direct defense of gravy which would be a very fancy play to make as a wolf. Despite duck wanting me dead I give him a village lean. DarkWing is an unknown so far.
moarcowbell stayed on gravy most of day 1, gravy was playing tricky though so it might be that one wolf didn't move for cover purposes. Gravy voted for Cig midday, Cig probably not a wolf but doesn't add much value.
Taint had the late switch from gravy to ShoRyuKen based on ducksucks posts, gravy was safe at that point though.
lynchpelion is playing carefully so far, not much either way.
Gaston has been pressing people and asking questions. Village imo.
Lynch Duck
Lemme recap for yall
1a) Gabe acted out of the ordinary, and was a wolf
1b) It stands to reason, that other wolves would act out of the ordinary
1c) Duck acts out of the ordinary (quack arooo)
2) Duck loved Gravy's lynch, but 2 hours later switched to Shoryuken right as it gained steam. He offers no reasoning other than "he thought shoryuken was wolfier", but this is inconsistent with the posts in question. It makes perfect sense as a wolf looking for any reason to get off of Gravy.
3) Duck KNEW THE IDENTITY of Shoryuken before his flip. Even though he claims to think both Gravy and Shoryuken were wolves.
4a) Duck freely posted who he thought was who (ie daven, baudib, etc). He did this without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4b) At night, Duck freely posted who the obv villagers were, without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4c) Makes sense if Duck is a wolf who isnt concerned about that.
5) This whole post
is just classic "caught for the wrong reasons" rage. Wolves dont like being found out for bullshit. They spend a lot of time crafting strategy and posts, and when bs outs them...it is infuriating. They feel cheated, like skill had nothing to do with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
6) Posts like this
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
All these "i feel" "I think" "it appears" "almost like", all of these phrases are wolf tells. Wolves dont have genuine feelings like the rest of us. So they have to constantly make shit up. We see that above as well. "You appear to be desperately scrambling..." "thanks to strat talk in the den"...etc. There are tons more of these posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Ask yourselves, do any of you actually think like this? When you see something suspicious, do you slow down and calmly proclaim "hey, you appear to be desperately scrambling..." No. Of course you dont. Because, unlike wolves faking it, villagers dont post this way. The thoughts duck wolf are faking occur in all of our heads, but the posts villagers make are the ones that follow those. Its never "i feel you're a wolf", thats so passive for someone that actually feels like they found a wolf. I personally get excited! LIke HOT DAMN I CAUGHT YOU MOTHERDUCKER. Being that yall are competitive poker players, you likely get excited too.
Ducks a wolf ladies and gentlemen.
Pots and kettles. Gabe called me a confirmed villager. The odds I dont get looked up or shot after that are almost nill, and the odds he does it to a wolf are nill because of that. But you dont see any evidence that I'm a villager, because you need me dead. Because you know who my account is. And because you know that i know yours...Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
BAM. No one hunts like Gaston. NO ONE.
Moarcowbell stayed on gravy D1? Not really, he made some noise about gravy but ended up voting agua. He didn't switch to the gravytrain until quite late in the day.Quote:
Originally Posted by quadrospazz
Yeah, thank fuckQuote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
i can't wait to see how gaston goes about pretending to be shocked at me being a villager
define "ordinary"Quote:
1a) Gabe acted out of the ordinary, and was a wolf
1b) It stands to reason, that other wolves would act out of the ordinary
1c) Duck acts out of the ordinary (quack arooo)
granted, my vote shift is badQuote:
2) Duck loved Gravy's lynch, but 2 hours later switched to Shoryuken right as it gained steam. He offers no reasoning other than "he thought shoryuken was wolfier", but this is inconsistent with the posts in question. It makes perfect sense as a wolf looking for any reason to get off of Gravy.
knew? what gives you that impression? i expected a shoryuken village flip based on garvy's wolf flip and gravy's comments that shoryuken was a "perfect lynch" or whatever he saidQuote:
3) Duck KNEW THE IDENTITY of Shoryuken before his flip. Even though he claims to think both Gravy and Shoryuken were wolves.
i would further argue that if i "knew" shoryuken was going to flip villager, i wouldn't be so bold as to say it out loud
just one example of where you are looking for reasons for me to be a wolf, without balancing that out by looking for reasons i might be a villager
a) maybe i'm davenQuote:
4a) Duck freely posted who he thought was who (ie daven, baudib, etc). He did this without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4b) At night, Duck freely posted who the obv villagers were, without regard for what info that might provide the wolves.
4c) Makes sense if Duck is a wolf who isnt concerned about that.
b) i posted my reads in case i got nommed - but ofc that's a villager hint which you're not looking for
c) wolves tend to be concerned about stuff. once again ignoring villager tells - show where where i give the impression i'm concerned about anything this game
wolves spend a lot of time crafting their posts? what utter bullshit. you're using rhetoric to build a bs case. wolves might be annoyed when people use crap logic to point the finger at them. here's news - so are villagers. you're pointing at a null tell like it's wolfy.Quote:
5) This whole post
is just classic "caught for the wrong reasons" rage. Wolves dont like being found out for bullshit. They spend a lot of time crafting strategy and posts, and when bs outs them...it is infuriating. They feel cheated, like skill had nothing to do with it.
how do you know these are wolf tells? you don't. language tells like this depend a great deal on the person in question. since you cannot be 100% sure of my identity, then it stands to reason that you cannot be 100% sure if this language is a wolf tell, a villager tell, or a null tellQuote:
All these "i feel" "I think" "it appears" "almost like", all of these phrases are wolf tells. Wolves dont have genuine feelings like the rest of us. So they have to constantly make shit up. We see that above as well. "You appear to be desperately scrambling..." "thanks to strat talk in the den"...etc. There are tons more of these posts.
incorrect conclusion based on slanted evidenceQuote:
Ducks a wolf ladies and gentlemen.
lynch gaston
i suggest a duck vs gaston 1 vs 1
i'm confident i beat that bitch, and if i don't he'll get shot after my flip
sounds good to me
Gaston I have a question. Posts #92 and #93:
Quote:
Originally Posted by moarcowbell
What gravytrain, and what hate? Like literally nobody has commented on gravy at this point, except one surly remark from cig.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
damn i wish i found thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Taint
i'd have rammed it up his ass, not presented it politely
I have believed since early in this game that Gaston was a wolf and am not changing that stance now.
As for me "dodging" the gravy bandwagon consider this: If I were a wolf would I have been so open about not liking a gravy lynch or would I have quietly tried to move the bandwagon in another direction?
I should have a bit of time tonight to review things and will post those thoughts later, however my immediate thoughts include a couple of things:
Duck seems more villager to me than wolf as he appears to be putting a ton of thought into the game;
Ducksucks also seems to be more villager than wolf based on content;
Cig butt seems to be floating around because a couple of people think he is a villager;
Darkwingduck still seems very much like a wolf to me;
If aqua doesn't start posting some info today we seriously need to consider getting rid of him. The longer we wait the harder it will become to get rid of a disinterested villager due to numbers.
I am convinced Gaston is a wolf now.
He makes the following post, which makes it seem like he is worried about binking a special. Btw, this was after Quad put in the first vote for shory (he had received two earlier votes, but they had been rescinded).
Then rails duck for his late switch to shorty with the following:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
At 10:58 Baud posts that the day ends in one hour and at this point shory had not shown up to defend himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
Then at 11:47 Gaston posts:
Followed by:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
This looks like a justification post for his last minute switch, but the switch goes completely against his reasoning earlier, especially when the deadline was approaching and shory wasn't around to defend himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
Btw, earlier Gravy had moved his vote from Cig (who had one plus him at the time) to Shory (who had one at the time) after buck nekid told him he might be able to help himself not get lynched (he and aqua were tied at that time).
Gaston's vote put shory in a tie with Gravy and 15 minutes later baud extended the deadline.
He then makes the following post to defend his actions:
Gravy then makes these two posts:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
Followed by:Quote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
My guess is that they discussed Gaston's last minute switch in the wolves den and figured Gravy would continue taking heat so they figured this may help Gaston when Gravy is discovered to be a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
I am pretty confident that we can lynch gaston today and the third wolf may have even been on the shory bandwagon.
lol, every time I post I'm worried that I'm logged in under my real account.Quote:
Originally Posted by quadrospazz
I'm buying this. Duck might be a wolf but not because he knew who gravy was. It's nothing personal with Gaston and ducksucks - they're making logical points. It's just that this anon version has been different and I don't think the wolfden is the only way for duck to know gravy's true identity.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
screw duck vs gaston, let's do quadro and lynchpelion. I say lynch one and vig the other, there will be exactly one wolf between them.
...Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
...Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
...Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
http://webtrax.hu/myfacewhen/faces/l...s/staredad.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
There was some love for gravy, and I saw it as an opportunity for wolves to join a wagon. No one was voting or doing anything, then gravy gets a vote and some hate, and then moarcowbell is sure gravy's a wolf. Early in the day, I had no knowledge of moarcowbell's role, so I aggressively challenged him for a reaction. I got one that seemed ok, so I let it pass.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taint
Which makes me wonder why you didnt find it. For someone convinced I'm a wolf, you sure didn't do a lot of digging to try and prove it.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
@Pelion: You're confronted with two choices. A) Lynch someone who, by all logic, is almost for sure a villager. or B) Lynch an unknown thats wolfy, but could be a special.
The choice is pretty obvious, and thats what I did. Quad switched to shoryuken for seemingly no reason, and I have no idea who Quad's real account is. Regardless, he seemed unaware of the risk and his quick rescind after pointing that out proves it.
Now ask yourself why a wolf would ever claim another wolf was 100% cleared. Suppose one dies. What do the seer and vig do? What does the village do? This wolf strategy would be suicide.
I'm busy for the next 12 hours. If yall kill me, vig should shoot duck and seer should look up one of the people we dont know much about. Probably Darkwing or Pelion, since theyre the more active of the ppl no one is focusing on.
3 gaston (DarkWingDuck #434, Duck 463, pelion 467)
2 duck (ducksucks #437, gaston 456)
quadrospazz (rescinded, duck 447)
Taint,
Seeing as you have all of 3x more posts than me I can see why this is hilarious.
...Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
...Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
Quote:
Originally Posted by aguapurificada
I switched mainly because agua hadn't done anything even though he was about to get lynched. Shoryuken seemed like the obvious switch because he was similar.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
I'm thinking both duck and Gaston are villagers.
Gaston is a wolf. Find the last one.
Ah thanks missed that, probably need to reread again since I'm mixing things up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taint
lynch quadrospazz
You told him to switch back and he did. If one of you is the wolf in this scenario, it's youQuote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
Further analysis of who the most wolfy on the Agua wagon are:
At 3v3, LPelion puts Agua ahead and says he doesn't like a Gravy lynch. Wolves can do this. Not all wolves will do it all of the time, but it has happened before. It's as simple in the den as "hey man you're getting in trouble, I'm gonna see where I can land to keep it from happening"Quote:
primy - agua (twice)
gaston - agua
buck nekid - agua
moarcowbell - agua
buck nekid - rescind agua
duck - gravy
taint - gravy
darkwingduck - gravy
lynchpelion - agua
Great time for risky, tricky wolves to do something like this. It made Agua go from 6v3 to 5v4. A wolf who wants to play it close to the rope will definitely do this.Quote:
quadrospazz - agua
buck nekid - agua
gaston - rescind agua lynch gravy
I just don't see how any of these three are wolves. If they are likely wolves, it means Gaston is even more likely wolf, since Gaston's move to Gravy was less on the line than these three votes. Cigarette Butt made it 5v5 with Agua winning the flip, Quadrospazz dropped off Agua, putting Gravy at 5v4, then Moarcowbell made it 6v3. In order for these guys to be wolves they have to either be majorly incompetent or Gabe had to pull a Gabe and try to get himself killed. I can't say I'm a fan of the idea that Gravy was being thrown under the bus. If both wolves were on Gravy, I think they thought they could get off, but more likely I think one was on Gravy and planned on getting off while another was on Agua.Quote:
cigarette butt - gravy
quadrospazz - rescind agua
moarcowbell - rescind agua lynch gravy
Gaston prodded him to not switch off Agua, so a few minutes later he went back. How is this a wolf?Quote:
quadrospazz - lynch agua
If one or both wolves were on Gravy with an intention to get off when it's too hairy, this is one of the only options. This brought Gravy to 5v4Quote:
duck - rescind gravy
Gravy/Agua/Shoryuken at 4v4v4. Day was almost over and could have just played it too close to the edgeQuote:
(I tell people to get off gravy)
gaston - rescind gravy
Gravy looks to not be in the noose and Shoryuken wagon became the new one. If LPelion is a wolf, he did his duty in trying to have Agua trend ahead of Gravy but now the Agua wagon was not going to gain any more steam.Quote:
(Baud says will leave open for a bit)
lynchpelion - rescind agua
Darkwingduck and Taint posted after the original deadline. If they're wolves, they weren't planning on getting off Gravy or they miscalculated timing. Wolves can be early adopters of wolf wagons then forget about them. It has happened before. It's just not the most likely thingQuote:
(Baud extends deadline)
darkwingduck - rescind gravy
taint - rescind gravy
buck nekid - rescind agua
So after LPelion and DwD bold Gaston, Gravy calls him 99% villager. This looks like Gravy, knowing he's in the clear, may be protecting Gaston, but it looks like that TO ME. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gabe wasn't considering how lockvillager he was at that point. I also have a hard time seeing Gabe say that about a wolf in an attempt to protect him. On the surface, it looks bad, but since when is Gabe on the surface?
As for Gaston, he looks really wolfy. All these wolfy things have been happening that involve him. But in a lot of other ways he doesn't look wolfy. I think what we're looking at here may be a situation where Gaston looks too wolfy to be a wolf since wolves don't put themselves in these kinds of weirdly hyper wolfy spots. I mean, if Gaston was a wolf, why in the fuck did he get off Gravy with just 20 minutes left? The only way that helps Gravy is if somebody else showed up and put in a vote for Agua (unlikely) or Shoryuken (more likely but still unlikely since nobody was on except Cig and he wasn't moving from Gravy). If Gravy and the other wolf planned on both doing it then it would have worked, but that DIDN'T happen. So I think what we have here is Gaston just being a villager trying to do the right thing. He fits all my criteria for a good lynch though: was on Agua, adopted Gravy in a non-major-threatening way, said some wolfy things. But if I'm going with gut, I'm saying this isn't a wolf
For the Agua wagon, this leaves LP to the Elion. He looks the worst. If Moarcowbell is a wolf, it means they said "fuck Gravy". If Quadrospazz is a wolf, it means they said "fuck Gravy and look weird doing it"
I'm still on Duck, but I'm not solid. Some of what applies to Gaston applies to him. If he's a wolf, it means he made obvious moves by hopping off Gravy at the first sign of trouble and bolding Shoryuken just after Gravy did. In my fantasy world, this is how wolves play, but in the real world, wolves try to not get caught in these things that look like obvious collusion to them
I'll put some more brain to it then put my bold where I want it
man you are really clutching at straws hereQuote:
Originally Posted by Gaston
it's pretty obvious why you're still attacking me - you're a cornered wolf desperately trying to avoid leaving further associative tells.
i'm utterly convinced it's gaston and quad
ducksucks do you actually think i'm a wolf
jfc
here's my defence - quack
not arooo
im not buying much of the wolves threw gabe under the bus argument though obv its possible.
my read on gaston is village especially after the four posts on this page while duck seems more wolfy. gonna follow my read and go with duck lynch.
lynch duck
I think my most likely scenario right now is that one wolf was on Agua and one was an adopter of Gravy who didn't move off and had the intention of riding the gravytrain to vilcredcity
Of those on Agua, LP to Elion is the only one that looks bad to me (for reasons of Agua wagon)
Of those on Gravy, Duck and Gaston are the only ones who jumped ship. I'm gonna have to say that they looked too bad in how they did it to knowingly do it as a wolf. There is rationale behind why Duck did it, but it just looks so sketchy retrospectively and he would probably be aware of that. Gaston's jump off was almost pointless. If he was a wolf he should have just stayed on.
The others are Taint, DwD, Cig, and MoarCB. They were all on for keeps. The former two very early, the latter two only if they decided throwing Gravy under the bus was the right move.
This was said an hour before Cig moved to Gravy making it 5v5. Looks to me like Gravy did not have suicide in mind since he liked an Agua lynch. Cig bolding him like this is close to a fatality. This is bold as a wolf and means they quickly changed plansQuote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
An hour later Quadro puts Gravy in the lead by rescinding Agua. Very unlikely wolf
An hour later MoarCowBizzle puts Gravy in a big lead.
This leaves the early adopters, Taint and DwD. Early adoption and accidentally being on the final lynch isn't the most rare thing ever. It can happen because the early adopted wolf is never expected to be lynched on d1. Of these two, I don't know, I don't think either look terribly wolfy
Going back over the early votes and noticed I forgot another Gravy vote. Cig was the very first to bold Gravy, and not too long after he rescinded
Gravy said these about him
Quote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
Quote:
Originally Posted by gravyhog
Does Gabe really say this? Really? Does Gabe really lynch somebody because he's being a meanie? Especially when it's obviously an anonwolf schtick. Funny how Gabe said being mean will get you lynched for the wrong reason then bolds the player for just that reason.
I think this could be a wolf v wolf back and forth. But that necessarily means that when Cig made it 5v5 with Agua winning the tiebreaker and later refusing to get off, the plan was to kill Gravy. Did this really happen?
Maybe the last two are lynchpelion and Cigarette Butt
rescind duck lynch lynchpelion
If you'll notice, Cig isn't doing fucking shit
When he is doing shit, it's this worthless shit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cigarette butt
Quote:
Originally Posted by quadrospazz's reply to Taint
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cigarette butt
Rescind lynchpelion
If Cig is a wolf, which I'm quickly realizing he very well could be, it makes Moarcowbell specifically very likely wolf (and Quadro likely but not as much as Moar). The reason is because it means the wolves were trying to kill Gravy after Cig put his bold on him. Quadro and Moar came in after, but I think the way Quadro did it looks really villagery. Plus MoarCowButts was on the Agua wagon, and like I keep saying, it's very unlikely that the wolves didn't land on that at some point
So maybe it's Shitarette Butts and MoarCowDicks
^^ Forgot to add that it's a big deal that Gabe liked a Cig bold as much as he did. Gabe has had d1's where his main bold choices is another wolf
let's just remind ourselves of something
with 3 wolves vs a full seer, limited vig and angel and 9 vanillagers, wolves were up against it from the start
so wolves will not want to lose a buddy on d1 under any circumstance
it should be assumed that any wolf on gravy's wagon would really want to find a way of getting off
i realise this is self incrimination, but that's cool, because i'm convinced that by lynching/shooting/seering those who tried to avoid a gravy lynch when it mattered, ie myself gaston quad and pelion, we'll lock this game. if that late switch gets me killed, so be it. i'll even volunteer the vig bullet to avoid the seer looking at the same person the vig shoots.
as for ciggie, pointing the finger at him is nothing more than a crappy attempt at soulreading. gravy tries to divert his lynch onto ciggie. that alone is enough for me to consider ciggie a lock villager until it becomes apparent that the wolves must have been trying to kill each other on d1.
That's basically true. I'm also going too far with this line of thought just like before and need to pull back
lynch lynchpelion
Keeping it simple, he's the worst looking Agua voter
Yeah, this makes sense. Maybe we should put more weight on the gravy wagon - who got off it and who didn't get on it in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
lynch lynchpelion
Three ways of reacting to the gravytrain:
2 wolves hop on the train - unlikely imo
2 wolves defend and divert - slightly more likely, but
1 on the train, 1 defend and divert - this is where I'm headed.
The pool of people who didn't vote gravy is smaller than the pool of those who did - only ducksucks, quadro and pelion didn't vote gravy at all.
I really want ducksucks to be wolfin because it makes these two posts just brilliant:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
But naw, ducksucks is really dissecting the game right now and I'm pretty sure he's a villager. There should only be one wolf in pelion / quad so if we lynch the wolf then I don't think the vig should shoot the survivor, just fire one off into the crowdQuote:
Originally Posted by ducksucks
vote count
3 gaston (DarkWingDuck 434, Duck 463, pelion 467)
2 duck (gaston 456, moarcowbell 486)
2 lynchpelion (ducksucks 492, Taint 494)
1 quadrospaz (Cigarette Butt 482)
rescinded votes
lynchpelion(ducksucks 487)
quadrospazz (duck 447)
duck (ducksucks 437)
approximately 14 hours to deadline
Its clear to me that one or both of me and Duck have to die. We cannot go to endgame together. But we both provide a large number of posts to the village (duck moreso), and are both likely to get special'd; in part because we're unlikely to be nommed.
I can stomach holding off on duck. To be clear, I'm confident hes a wolf. But I can stomach letting it slide until his posts convince more of you or he eventually gets special'd. Or I do, and my arguments can be trusted.
I disagree somewhat. It seems incredibly unlikely that two of [ducksucks, quadro, pelion] are wolves. So we're looking at A) two voting gravy at some point, or B) 1 voting at some point, 1 not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taint
Given how people left the gravytrain (myself, duck, darkwing), i dont find it unlikely that both wolves were on it at some point. I find it less likely than [1 on, 1 off], but still not unlikely.
Anyway, I cannot see ducksucks being a wolf ever. No wolf pushes so hard for gravy's wagon to die so close to deadline. Its crazy. Treat him like a confirmed villager until evidence that strongly suggests a level like this piles up.
edit: Above, I misremmbered darkwings post. I thought he rescinded gravy, but it was pelion. The below is probably right
Quote:
Originally Posted by duck
Wait, no because that contradicts taint's vote count. Wtf